Before we begin the rankings, the most important strategy tip is to take strong positions on a group of 1-2 teams on each side of the bracket. Spreading your top 10 picks out on 6-7 teams is a losing strategy. At the end of your playoff fantasy draft, you want to see two or three potential matchups in the Super Bowl that should equal a high chance of winning for you. You might not be able to pick the exact teams that you want, but it is important to roll with the flow of the draft. If you wanted Mahomes, but had to settle for Brees, then you are going to favor Saints over Chiefs for the rest of your draft. Much more than a typical fantasy draft, your early picks should dictate the mid and late parts of your draft.
A Note on Playoff Picks
Take a stand on the outcome of the playoff brackets with your picks. Some of these calls are 52/48 and the way they break can greatly affect projecting the next round in the bracket, but relying on small margins to make selections is the essence of what we do in fantasy football.
Wild Card picks in order of confidence
New Orleans over Minnesota - The Vikings have the personnel to hang theoretically, but they have been a chronically underachieving team this year that only got to the playoffs by beating mediocre to poor teams. The Saints seem hyperfocused and should get through this one with some breathing room unless they are looking ahead and coming in unprepared mentally and emotionally.
Confidence: High
Seattle over Philadelphia - The Eagles are held together by bailing wire and duct tape on offense and their defense is nothing to write home about. The Seahawks running game broke down, which could force them into being the Russell Wilson-centric offense they should have been all along. The Eagles have the right Rocky mindset and experience overcoming long odds against all expectations, but they are severely undermanned.
Confidence: Medium-High
Houston over Buffalo - This feels like the “welcome to the playoffs” game for Josh Allen. Deshaun Watson had his last year in a 21-7 loss full of frustration playoff debut. Watson should get Will Fuller back, always a key to the potency of the pass offense, and JJ Watt is also practicing. Fuller could easily pull up lame early in the game, Allen is streaky and regularly attempts game-changing throws, the Bills have the better defense and the Bill O’Brien factor could give the Bills another edge, so this is far from a shoo-in.
Confidence: Medium
Tennessee over New England - There’s a novelty to projecting a Belichick/Brady team to lose in the wild card round at home, and this could just be wishful thinking. On the other hand, how can we pick a team that just lost to the Dolphins at home with a lot on the line? The Patriots defense is running out of mojo and the Titans are surging with confidence. This is Derrick Henry’s time of year and tackling AJ Brown and Jonnu Smith will make any defender weary. Brady and the Patriots offense isn’t a strength. New England needs defensive or special teams touchdowns to have a chance.
Confidence: Medium-Low
Divisional picks in order of confidence
Kansas City over Houston - Andy Reid has a way with losing in the playoffs, but Bill O’Brien cancels that out. The Chiefs have quietly built a defense that isn’t a liability and Damien Williams is looking like the player he was at this time last year. If Will Fuller is truly back and effective, the Texans could turn this into a wide open shootout, but putting their secondary under the spotlight isn’t a recipe for winning. If the Patriots beat the Titans, I would feel even more confidence in the Chiefs advancing.
Confidence: High
New Orleans over Green Bay - Picking a road team in the divisional round is usually against the grain, but the Packers have barely looked like a playoff team lately. The Saints have the urgency of a possible last go round with Drew Brees and Matt LaFleur is a rookie head coach in the playoffs. Aaron Rodgers hasn’t been working his magic except against bad defenses and the Saints don’t have a bad defense. If Minnesota upsets New Orleans, the Packers would get the Eagles or Seahawks and that would be more of a coinflip game.
Confidence: Medium-High
Baltimore over Tennessee - Ranking this third in confidence is no indictment of the Ravens as much as it is deference to the Titans. Derrick Henry gives the Titans a punch that can put the opponent on the canvas at any moment, and AJ Brown has added a similar element in the passing game, which is now confident with Ryan Tannehill at the helm. The Ravens have been tested recently by the 49ers and Bills in tight games and this is a dangerous matchup. If the Patriots beat the Titans, the Ravens would either get a Bills team that played them somewhat even a month ago or a Texans team that they blew out in Week 11, albeit a Texans team that just eliminated a team that was a lot tighter matchup the first time around.
Confidence: Medium
Seattle over San Francisco - Shrug. If this year has taught us anything it is that the Seattle-San Francisco game will come down any number of plays with arbitrary outcomes. The Seahawks have the quarterback advantage, and the playoff experience advantage. Kyle Shanahan’s playoff debut could be a learning experience and the Seahawks don’t seem to be daunted by slowing down his offense. Philadelphia or Minnesota would be a much better matchup than Seattle for San Francisco.
Confidence: Low
Conference Championship picks in order of confidence
New Orleans over Seattle - The Saints beat Seattle earlier this year with Teddy Bridgewater at quarterback, and in Seattle. If the Seahawks can beat San Francisco, anything is possible in the NFC championship game, but if the Saints haven’t had a let down in the first two games and return home with a chance to exorcise the demons, they will
Confidence: Medium-High
Kansas City over Baltimore - The Chiefs were at the precipice last year and they are a better team this year. The Ravens have homefield advantage, but their offense has been rendered mortal by San Francisco and Buffalo and the Chiefs defense appears to be up to that task. The Ravens defense has been a strength, but Patrick Mahomes II can extend plays and Mecole Hardman adds a dimension that makes them more difficult to defend. If the Ravens were to face the Patriots, Texans, or Bills, in this game, they would be clear favorites.
Confidence: Medium-Low
Tiered Team Ranking By Range of Outcomes/Fantasy Offensive Potential
First Tier
Playoff squad cornerstones
1. New Orleans - A realistic chance at playing four games plus an offense that has been humming both indoors and outdoors over the last month.
2. Kansas City - This could just as easily be the Ravens if you’d pick them in the likely AFC title game.
3. Baltimore - I won’t argue with building your team around Ravens.
Second Tier
Potential league winners with risk
4. Seattle - This team could be one and done, but they could also go the distance. The shift away from the running game by necessity could be a boon for the offensive potential
5. San Francisco - Confidently building your draft around 49ers is not unsound, but the strong possibility of what looks like a coinflip game vs. Seattle to open their playoff campaign is disturbing when considering their value.
6. Tennessee - Here is your most likely team to make an against the odds run deep into the playoffs, and if they do, it will be on the broad shoulders of their offensive playmakers.
Third Tier
Teams unlikely to play more than two games, but with a reasonable chance of winning one
7. Green Bay - I might be underestimating them, but they seem like the most likely bye team to lose in the divisional round. Having divisional round points in the bank still elevates them over the less impressive wild card teams.
8. Houston - Bill O’Brien and the quality of the AFC bye teams makes it difficult to invest heavily.
9. Buffalo - Josh Allen and the quality of the AFC bye teams makes it difficult to invest heavily.
10. New England - The Patriots might summon up enough magic to beat the Titans at home, but they aren’t winning at Kansas City or Baltimore.
Fourth Tier
Teams likely to be one and done
11. Philadelphia - The spirit and recent playoff history is there, but the players are noe
12. Minnesota - This team doesn’t look capable of winning in the Superdome
Tiered Player Rankings
Quarterback
Brees, Mahomes, and Jackson are all worth first round picks, and a Wilson/Garoppolo combo could net you four games if you don’t go quarterback in the first. Aaron Rodgers feels like he could be a wasted pick if you already have Brees or one of the other three bye week quarterbacks. Hill’s ability to score as a runner or receiver over a three or four game span makes him an excellent unconventional QB2 or QB3 in the playoff format.
1. Drew Brees, NO
2. Patrick Mahomes II, KC
3. Lamar Jackson, BAL
4. Russell Wilson, SEA
5. Jimmy Garoppolo, SF
6. Ryan Tannehill, TEN
7. Deshaun Watson, HOU
8. Taysom Hill, NO
9. Aaron Rodgers, GB
10. Josh Allen, BUF
11. Tom Brady, NE
12. Carson Wentz, PHI
13. Kirk Cousins, MIN
Running Back
Kamara regaining form in Week 16 makes him the clear #1 and worth a first round pick. The next five have a wide range of outcomes with Williams only recently regaining form, Ingram banged up, and Henry, Jones and Mostert all possible one and dones. Going minimal at running back in the first 2-3 rounds is a viable strategy. Murray and Homer have hidden upside with the potential to contribute in four games. Cook feels like a potential wasted pick. Edwards could be a league winner if Ingram aggravates his calf injury. It won’t be difficult to get decent wild card week scoring at running back with minimal investment.
1. Alvin Kamara, NO
2. Damien Williams, KC
3. Mark Ingram, BAL **Monitor Status**
4. Derrick Henry, TEN
5. Aaron Jones, GB
6. Raheem Mostert, SF
7. Latavius Murray, NO
8. Travis Homer, SEA
9. Marshawn Lynch, SEA
10. Gus Edwards, BAL **Monitor Ingram Status**
11. Dalvin Cook, MIN
12. Boston Scott, PHI **Monitor Sanders Status**
13. Miles Sanders, PHI **Monitor Status**
14. Carlos Hyde, HOU
15. Devin Singletary, BUF
16. James White, NE
17. Sony Michel, NE
18. Duke Johnson Jr, HOU
19. Rex Burkhead, NE
20. Justice Hill, BAL **Monitor Ingram Status**
21. Darwin Thompson, KC
22. Tevin Coleman, SF
23. Matt Breida, SF
24. Jordan Howard, PHI **Monitor Sanders Status**
25. Jamaal Williams, GB **Monitor Status**
26. Kyle Juzsczyk, SF
27. Frank Gore, BUF
28. Brandon Bolden, NE
29. Alexander Mattison, MIN **Monitor Status**
30. Dion Lewis, TEN
31. LeSean McCoy, KC
32. Spencer Ware, KC
33. Dexter Williams, GB **Monitor Jamaal Williams Status**
34. Robert Turbin, SEA
35. Mike Boone, MIN
36. Ameer Abdullah, MIN
37. Dwayne Washington, NO
38. Anthony Sherman, KC
39. Zach Line, NO
40. Dan Vitale, GB
41. TJ Yeldon, BUF
Wide Receiver
Thomas and Hill are first round picks and there’s an argument for Thomas #1 overall. Lockett is the biggest boom/bust pick, while Hopkins and Adams could only play one game and against a shutdown corner. Metcalf and Brown could easily outscore Hopkins and Adams and play more games, but fantasy reputation dictates Adams and Hopkins go earlier. There’s a ton of late round picks at receiver who could score a cheap touchdown for you. David Moore and Allen Lazard are likely to be undervalued.
1. Michael Thomas, NO
2. Tyreek Hill, KC
3. Tyler Lockett, SEA
4. DeAndre Hopkins, HOU
5. Davante Adams, GB
6. DK Metcalf, SEA
7. AJ Brown, TEN
8. Mecole Hardman, KC **Check Scoring Rules for Return Touchdowns**
9. Marquise Brown, BAL
10. Deebo Samuel, SF
11. Emmanuel Sanders, SF
12. Stefon Diggs, MIN
13. Julian Edelman, NE
14. John Brown, BUF
15. Cole Beasley, BUF
16. Will Fuller, HOU **Monitor Status**
17. Tre’Quan Smith, NO
18. Sammy Watkins, KC
19. Willie Snead, BAL
20. Adam Thielen, MIN
21. Corey Davis, TEN
22. Demarcus Robinson, KC
23. Kenny Stills, HOU **Monitor Status**
24. Allen Lazard, GB
25. David Moore, SEA
26. Ted Ginn Jr, NO
27. Kendrick Bourne, SF
28. Mohamed Sanu, NE
29. N’keal Harry, NE
30. Greg Ward, PHI
31. Marquez Valdes-Scantling, GB
32. Phillip Dorsett, NE
33. Seth Roberts, BAL
34. Miles Boykin, BAL
35. Geronimo Allison, GB
36. Richie James, SF **Check Scoring Rules for Return Touchdowns**
37. Deonte Harris, NO **Check Scoring Rules for Return Touchdowns**
38. Byron Pringle, KC
39. Jake Kumerow, GB
40. Tajae Sharpe, TEN
41. Adam Humphries, TEN **Monitor Status**
42. DeAndre Carter, HOU **Monitor Fuller/Stills Status**
43. Jakobi Meyers, NE
44. Deontay Burnett, PHI
45. Keke Coutee, HOU **Monitor Fuller/Stills Status**
46. Isaiah McKenzie, BUF
47. Malik Turner, SEA **Monitor Status**
48. Duke Williams, BUF
49. Robert Foster, BUF
50. Olabisi Johnson, MIN
51. Laquon Treadwell, MIN
52. JJ Arcega-Whiteside, PHI
53. John Ursua, SEA **Monitor Turner Status**
54. Robert Davis, PHI
Tight End
If you believe in the Chiefs to go the Super Bowl, Kelce is a viable first round pick, and likewise for Kittle. The position is reasonably deep this year with Cook, Andrews, Hollister, and Smith probably undervalued in drafts and plenty of options capable of scoring deep into the playoffs.
1. Travis Kelce, KC
2. George Kittle, SF
3. Jared Cook, NO
4. Mark Andrews, BAL
5. Jacob Hollister, SEA
6. Jonnu Smith, TEN
7. Dallas Goedert, PHI
8. Zach Ertz, PHI **Monitor Status**
9. Dawson Knox, BUF
10. Darren Fells, HOU
11. Josh Hill, NO
12. Hayden Hurst, BAL
13. Nick Boyle, BAL
14. Jimmy Graham, GB
15. Jordan Akins, HOU
16. Kyle Rudolph, MIN
17. Irv Smith, MIN
18. Ben Watson, NE
19. Ross Dwelley, SF
20. Marcedes Lewis, GB
21. Josh Perkins, PHI
22. Matt Lacosse, NE
23. Jordan Thomas, HOU
24. Robert Tonyan Jr, GB
25. Tyler Kroft, BUF
26. Luke Willson, SEA
27. Mycole Pruitt, TEN
28. Anthony Firkser, TEN
Kicker
1. Wil Lutz, NO
2. Harrison Butker, KC
3. Justin Tucker, BAL
4. Jason Myers, SEA
5. Robbie Gould, SF
6. Greg Joseph, TEN
7. Mason Crosby, GB
8. Ka’imi Fairbairn, HOU
9. Steven Hauschka, BUF
10. Nick Folk, NE
11. Jake Elliott, PHI
12. Dan Bailey, MIN
D/ST
1. New Orleans
2. Kansas City
3. Baltimore
4. Seattle
5. San Francisco
6. New England
7. Green Bay
8. Houston
9. Tennessee
10. Buffalo
11. Philadelphia
12. Minnesota
Overall
1. Drew Brees, QB, NO
2. Travis Kelce, TE, KC
3. Patrick Mahomes II, QB, KC
4. Michael Thomas, WR, NO
5. Alvin Kamara, RB, NO
6. Tyreek Hill, WR, KC
7. Lamar Jackson, QB, BAL
8. Russell Wilson, QB, SEA
9. Damien Williams, RB, KC
10. Tyler Lockett, WR, SEA
11. George Kittle, TE, SF
12. Mark Ingram, RB, BAL
13. Derrick Henry, RB, TEN
14. DeAndre Hopkins, WR, HOU
15. Davante Adams, WR, GB
16. Jared Cook, TE, NO
17. Mark Andrews, TE, BAL
18. DK Metcalf, WR, SEA
19. AJ Brown, WR, TEN
20. Aaron Jones, RB, GB
21. Raheem Mostert, RB, SF
22. Jimmy Garoppolo, QB, SF
23. Latavius Murray, RB, NO
24. Jacob Hollister, TE, SEA
25. Travis Homer, RB, SEA
26. Mecole Hardman, WR, KC
27. Jonnu Smith, TE, TEN
28. Marquise Brown, WR, BAL
29. Ryan Tannehill, QB, TEN
30. Deshaun Watson, QB, HOU
31. Wil Lutz, K, NO
32. New Orleans D/ST
33. Harrison Butker, K, KC
34. Kansas City D/ST
35. Justin Tucker, K, BAL
36. Baltimore D/ST
37. Zach Ertz, TE, PHI
38. Dallas Goedert, TE, PHI
39. Marshawn Lynch, RB, SEA
40. Gus Edwards, RB, BAL
41. Deebo Samuel, WR, SF
42. Emmanuel Sanders, WR, SF
43. Taysom Hill, QB, NO
44. Seattle D/ST
45. Jason Myers, K, SEA
46. San Francisco D/ST
47. Robbie Gould, K, SF
48. Aaron Rodgers, QB, GB
49. Stefon Diggs, WR, MIN
50. Julian Edelman, WR, NE
51. John Brown, WR, BUF
52. Cole Beasley, WR, BUF
53. Will Fuller, WR, HOU
54. Tre’Quan Smith, WR, NO
55. Sammy Watkins, WR, KC
56. Willie Snead, WR, BAL
57. Adam Thielen, WR, MIN
58. Corey Davis, WR, TEN
59. Dalvin Cook, RB, MIN
60. Boston Scott, RB, PHI
61. Demarcus Robinson, WR, KC
62. Miles Sanders, RB, PHI
63. Carlos Hyde, RB, HOU
64. Josh Allen, QB, BUF
65. Devin Singletary, RB, BUF
66. James White, RB, NE
67. Sony Michel, RB, NE
68. Duke Johnson Jr, RB, HOU
69. Kenny Stills, WR, HOU
70. Allen Lazard, WR, GB
71. David Moore, WR, SEA
72. Tom Brady, QB, NE
73. Carson Wentz, QB, PHI
74. Kirk Cousins, QB, MIN
75. Rex Burkhead, RB, NE
