3 Reasons Why Derrius Guice Will Disappoint

Photo: Geoff Burke, USA Today Sports

THREE REASONS DERRIUS GUICE WILL FALL SHORT OF 1,000 RUSHING YARDS IN 2019

1. Adrian Peterson is still effective and will compete for touches.

2. Washington’s offensive line won’t add value to the running back’s touches.

3. The offense is in disarray and won’t be a unit to set up its runners for success.

SUMMARY

The possibility of Guice having a great fantasy season is there because of his talent. However, as we know, talent cannot always overcome adverse team situations. Todd Gurley in year two with Jeff Fisher versus year three with Sean McVay is a striking example of that truth. In addition to offensive line woes and an offense in transition, Guice also has future hall-of-fame player Adrian Peterson to split his load with him. Guice is a better bet for dynasty leagues. He is more likely to be in a better position in the future when the Washington offense can take shape, competition will be eliminated by attrition, and the offensive line which he will run behind will be improved. Guice should likely be passed on at his current ADP.

A DICEY START FOR GUICE

In the 2018 Draft, Derrius Guice was an exciting addition to a team devoid of running talent. Compared by many analysts to Marshawn Lynch, Guice showed in preseason work some of the same traits that made Lynch a special runner. Then the worst happened -- Guice tore his ACL and did not play a snap of the regular season. To make matters even worse, his recovery was fraught with complications. A lingering infection at the surgical site caused healing to be slowed and Guice had to undergo three more procedures. Meanwhile, the team signed free agent Adrian Peterson to a one-year deal. Peterson performed admirably enough that the team signed him again this offseason to a two-year term. Many fantasy analysts and general managers alike see the tantalizing potential with Guice, but given both the organizational and situational obstacles he must overcome, is it fair to expect Guice to make up for lost time and post 1,000 yards rushing?

THE PETERSON PROBLEM

While it’s true that Peterson is not the runner that he once was, he still must be respected. The term of the contract that Washington gave him this offseason tells us that they feel he can at least be a contributor and mentor for Guice, and perhaps carry the load for the team if it comes to that. Despite running behind a banged-up offensive line for much of the year, the veteran managed a 1,000-yard rushing season for the eighth time in his career. The Washington coaching staff has told the media that Guice and Peterson will start the season splitting carries. Peterson seems to have grudgingly accepted this arrangement, telling reporters, “Of course that is my mentality to be that guy, that is what has kept me around for 13 years now, but at the end of the day, the coaches are the ones that make that decision.” While Guice is more than capable of taking the job and running with it, the coaching staff seems inclined to ease him in, which does not bode well for his statistical output this year.

TO OPINE ON THE O-LINE

While Guice is a runner capable of creating on his own, it helps to have an offensive line that can open holes and creases that give the runner more with which to work. Unfortunately for Washington, their terrible luck with offensive line health continued into the 2018 season. While their offensive line starters were solid, they lacked quality depth, and when injuries forced them to rely on that depth (as they commonly do), Washington wasn’t able to answer the bell. As Footballguy Matt Bitonti has explained, continuity of personnel is generally needed to build a cohesive, functional offensive line. Because of injuries, nine different linemen logged at least 200 snaps during the season. Multiple services that provide grades for offensive linemen in terms of both pass blocking and run blocking had Washington in the bottom third of the league. Washington added guard Wes Martin in the fourth round of this year’s Draft and center Ross Pierschbacher in the fifth round. Yet, these are developmental prospects at best and it will take time to get them ready to contribute. They also signed Ereck Flowers in free agency, but Flowers has largely been a disappointment at both of his NFL stops so far in New York and Jacksonville. For Guice to have a great season behind this line, they will need the starters to stay completely healthy, something that hasn’t happened in a very long time.

THE AWFUL OFFENSE

Washington’s difficulties on offense don’t end with the offensive line. A gruesome compound and spiral fracture of the leg makes starting quarterback Alex Smith’s future with the team uncertain. Colt McCoy, also battling back from a fractured leg, is uncertain to be ready to begin the season. The team trusts McCoy and he has been in their system for several years. As we have seen when he gets the start, however, he has limitations. They traded for Case Keenum, who figures to be the de facto starter. Unfortunately, Keenum is also like McCoy in that he is restricted in what he can do. While Washington drafted Dwayne Haskins in the first round, it would be a big ask to throw the rookie signal caller in, especially if the line isn’t doing a good job of protecting its quarterback. The receiving and tight end groups are also in shambles. Josh Doctson has yet to live up to expectations. Jamison Crowder left in free agency. Paul Richardson Jr and Jordan Reed are talented, but neither can seem to stay healthy. Vernon Davis is in the twilight of his career. The play of young receivers Trey Quinn and Terry McLaurin have generated positive reviews in organized team activities, but it would be unrealistic to expect over 40 receptions for either player. It’s fair to say that all things considered, this offense is unlikely to add value to the touches and targets of its running backs. Footballguys projectors estimate 918, 926, 906, and 862 plays from scrimmage run for the offense, which would be among the lowest totals in the league. This is not an offense fantasy general managers should be looking to for fantasy production in 2019.

2019 PROJECTIONS

OTHER VIEWPOINTS

Michael Beller of Sports Illustrated believes we are collectively underestimating Derrius Guice:

“Guice is going to approach 250 carries, and he comes at the price of an RB3. That’s the sort of bargain that can make a fantasy season.”

Kevin Scott of FanSided reminds fantasy general managers to not forget about Guice:

“Make sure when your draft comes around you are not sleeping on Guice. He is worthy of being chosen by the fourth round of fantasy drafts, whether dynasty or redraft.”

Liz Loza of Yahoo Sports has her doubts about Guice’s health:

“... I’m wary of Guice’s durability. While I dig the chip on his shoulder, there’s no denying that running mad can lead to an excess of hits and early deterioration. Plus, he has a penchant for leading with his helmet, rather than his shoulder, which could prove to be decidedly harmful given everything his body has endured thus far.”