Against The Spread Pool: Week 11

Photo: Dale Zanine, USA Today Sports

Over the past few years, we have given the subscribers of Footballguys.com the Staff Confidence Pool Challenge, where numerous staffers try and pick the winners each week with a confidence ranking, and Dave Larkin’s “For The Win” column where Jeff attempts to pick each and every NFL game against the Las Vegas spread. Both of these have been very popular features, so once again this year Footballguys is proud to bring you the combination of the two - the Footballguys staff "Against the Spread Pool Challenge". Multiple staff members (19) will pick the winner of each NFL game against the Las Vegas line. As a tie-breaker, the person who is closest to the total points scored on the last Monday Night game will be the winner. Winners will be announced from week to week and the best overall record will be crowned Against the Spread Champion. Picks and ranks are due on Wednesday, so any late-breaking news may not be reflected in the choices.

Please note, that this contest should NOT be viewed as direct sports wagering advice, especially later in the season. Since the staff is trying to beat one another, picks may be made to go against the grain in an attempt to try and catch up in the standings. This example of game theory is more in tune towards playing a contest such as this - so again, do not use these picks as direct advice towards which games to pick each and every week. Rather, use these picks to see the top choices each week, especially by the staff members towards the top of the standings.

LAST WEEK'S RESULTS

Here are the results from last week:

Vegas Winners - Over 52.4% Hit Rate
Over 50% Hit Rate

Week 10 was a pretty good week for the staff overall, with most of the sets of picks above 50% (12 out of 19 had seven or more correct picks against the spread). Phil Alexander edged out Dave Larkin and Alex Miglio on a tiebreaker as all three went 10-3 for the week. The staff was on the right side of several games, including two of their biggest calls. Baltimore blew out Cincinnati, giving the staff 18 wins and a big head start on the week, while a strong Green Bay victory over Carolina offset a Kansas City loss in Tennessee. The staff was on the right side of 7 of 13 games, giving the group a total record of 130-117 (52.6%) for the week, which helped edge the season-long record closer to .500 for the year (1,400-1,412 [49.8%]). Table 1 highlights the seven staffers with winning records for the season and that are beating Las Vegas (over 52.3%) with 77 or more wins this year., along with three more that are sitting right at 50%. Andy Hicks leads the way with 89 wins, well ahead of Alex Miglio (83) and Dave Larkin (80). More than half of the season is behind us, but there are still seven weeks to go. How will it all play out? Let's start finding out by taking a look at the Week 11 selections.

There is an interesting mix of picks from the staff here in Week 10. Nearly everyone (18 of 19) has the Ravens winning by double-digits in Cincinnati, while both Green Bay at home and Kansas City on the road come in with over 80% (16 of 19) of the possible selections. No other game has more than 70% of the staff on one side. The next closest majority includes three road teams (Buffalo, the Giants, and the Rams) and two underdogs (Oakland at home, Buffalo) all receiving 13 votes for the week. Three road underdog teams (Arizona, Seattle, and Miami) and three home favorites (Chicago, Dallas, New Orleans) round out the group's selections for Week 10. If the Ravens, Chiefs, and Packers all win and cover the spread, it will be a great Week 10 for the staff.

THIS WEEK'S PICKS

Here are the picks for this week:

Vegas Winners - Over 52.4% Hit Rate
Over 50% Hit Rate

CONSENSUS WINNERS

There are an interesting mix of picks from the staff here in Week 11. The top pick for the staff (15 of 19 selections) goes to the "road" favorite Kansas City Chiefs, who are playing a divisional rival in the Los Angeles Chargers in Mexico City on Monday Night Football. Hopefully the field conditions are better than last year (the Chiefs-Rams game last season had to move back to Los Angeles due to unplayable turf issues). Road teams are favored the most by the staff this week, as five of the top six consensus picks go towards traveling teams (Chiefs, Cowboys, Jets, Cardinals and Patriots). Only Dallas (at Detroit) and New England (at Philadelphia) are favorites, but the staff is leaning more towards favorites this week, 8-6 across 14 contests. Three teams received 14 of 19 picks (Dallas, Arizona, New York Jets) while two more received 13 votes (Baltimore, New England). That leaves eight games where the picks came in near break-even (11 picks for Pittsburgh, New Orleans, Oakland and Indianapolis; 10 for Atlanta, Miami, Denver and the Rams). For another successful week for the group, road teams will definitely have to come through. If those top six selections all come through this week, it will be a great Week 11 for the staff.

ODDS AND ENDS

The NFL season is now past the midway point of the schedule, and the next set of picks are due by Wednesday night. Most of the staff would agree that picking this weekend's games on Wednesday night is very difficult because you don't have much information about injuries and practice. If your league allows you to pick the later games separate from the rest, take advantage of it and make your Sunday and Monday picks as close to the weekend as possible.

A reminder that these picks are against the Las Vegas lines – so getting above 50% is respectable, above 53% gets you into the profitable zone (accounting for the Las Vegas house odds of taking 10% of every losing wager) – and anything above 60% is outstanding. That may sound easy enough, but it is much, much harder than it might seem.

Good luck this weekend!

Questions, suggestions, and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com

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