Against The Spread Pool: Week 1

Photo: Jeffrey Becker, USA Today Sports

Over the past few years, we have given the subscribers of Footballguys.com the Staff Confidence Pool Challenge, where numerous staffers try and pick the winners each week with a confidence ranking, and Dave Larkin’s “For The Win” column where Jeff attempts to pick each and every NFL game against the Las Vegas spread. Both of these have been very popular features, so once again this year Footballguys is proud to bring you the combination of the two - the Footballguys' staff "Against the Spread Pool Challenge". Multiple staff members (19) will pick the winner of each NFL game against the Las Vegas line. As a tie-breaker, the person who is closest to the total points scored on the last Monday Night game will be the winner. Winners will be announced from week to week and the best overall record will be crowned Against the Spread Champion. Picks and ranks are due on Wednesday, so any late-breaking news may not be reflected in the choices.

Please note, that this contest should NOT be viewed as direct sports wagering advice, especially later in the season. Since the staff is trying to beat one another, picks may be made to go against the grain in an attempt to try and catch up in the standings. This example of game theory is more in tune towards playing a contest such as this - so again, do not use these picks as direct advice towards which games to pick each and every week. Rather, use these picks to see the top choices each week, especially by the staff members towards the top of the standings.

THIS WEEK'S PICKS

Here are the picks for this week.

CONSENSUS WINNERS

Its opening weekend, so maybe you would have expected some consensus on a few picks – and we came really close with all but one of the 19 staffers picking the Ravens to beat the Dolphins in Miami by at least six points. Considering how Miami seems to be tanking on 2019 and that Baltimore was a playoff team last season, that feels like a safe call. The only other near-consensus road favorite that the staff really liked this week was the Chiefs (15 of 19 picks) at Jacksonville. Only the Chargers (home favorite against the Colts) had more selections with 16, as Los Angeles was the second-most popular pick. Only three other games had more than two-thirds on one side, as the Eagles (14, hosting Washington), Tampa Bay (13, hosting the 49ers as a very slight favorite) and Denver (13, at Oakland) were the next set of popular choices. The other ten contests all fell in the close call range for the staff, as no more than 12 staff members picked either side of the remaining Week 1 matchups. Overall, nine road teams and nine underdogs were the picks for the staff, but the group's overall record will hinge on the fate of Baltimore, Kansas City, the Chargers and the Eagles' abilities to win and cover in Week 1. No matter what happens, the NFL is back and it is always fun and interesting to see how Week 1 plays out.

ODDS AND ENDS

It's the first week of the season, and the picks are due by Wednesday night. Most of the staff would agree that picking this weekend's games on Wednesday night is very difficult because you don't have much information about injuries and practice. If your league allows you to pick the later games separate from the rest, take advantage of it and make your Sunday and Monday picks as close to the weekend as possible.

A reminder that these picks are against the Las Vegas lines – so getting above 50% is respectable, above 53% gets you into the profitable zone (accounting for the Las Vegas house odds of taking 10% of every losing wager) – and anything above 60% is outstanding. That may sound easy enough, but it is much, much harder than it might seem.

Good luck this weekend!

Questions, suggestions, and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com

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