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The NFL world was shaken up during an unpredictable and dramatic set of games on wild card weekend. Not only did the NFL’s paragon of consistency for so many years, New England, get knocked out, but the much-ballyhooed Saints got their marching orders after going 13-3 in the regular season. The margins are so fine in a one-game setting – and indeed, for those wagering. The books destroyed the public last week, with the Saints' loss particularly damaging. For yours truly, it could not have gone worse as I finished with an 0-4 record.
But we go again in the Divisional games. Fewer games on the docket means the Vegas sharps have ample opportunity to drill down and find every edge, so picking the right spots is crucial not only this week but throughout the playoffs. My predecessor on this column Jeff Pasquino often found success during the postseason with this column. My hope is that I can put the dismal first playoff week behind me and finish with a flourish this season.
As you would expect at this point of the tournament when the competition gets stiffer, the favorites are comfortably touchdown-plus in terms of points apart from the Packers game. If these games pan out anything like last week’s, we will be in for a treat.
Note that the over/unders are taken from VegasInsider.com
MINNESOTA VIKINGS at SAN FRANCISCO 49ers (-6.5 to 7) (Over/Under 45.5)
(Saturday, 4:35 pm Eastern, NBC)
"Bonjour San Francisco, au revoir New Orleans" were the triumphant words of the Minnesota Vikings local radio announcer after Kirk Cousins went for broke, chucking up a lofted pass to Kyle Rudolph to break Superdome hearts – and shock the NFL world. Pundits often talk of the 49ers being a battle-tested team, but the Vikings have a strong case for that moniker too. The upside for Cousins and company is that there is no reason to fear the trip to San Francisco; winning in the Superdome is as hostile a challenge as any. It should be noted, however, that the Vikings’ victory on Sunday was the franchise’s first road playoff win in 15 years. Will it be a flash in the pan or will ‘You like that?!’ echo in the visiting locker room once again on Saturday evening?
The week off will have done the 49ers players the world of good after not enjoying a break since Week 4, a staggering period that included games at New Orleans, two clashes with Seattle and Green Bay, among others. The occasion could not be bigger for head coach Kyle Shanahan, who will undoubtedly draw on his father’s wisdom ahead of a career-defining game – and possibly run of games, if all goes well. As the number one seed, the expectation is for the 49ers to run roughshod on the Vikings, but Vegas initially had the line at 6.5, perhaps a little slight to the home team. Both defenses are allowing fewer than 20 points per game, so this could be a tight affair; the seven points have significant appeal. San Francisco 24 Minnesota 17.
Key stats:
- The 49ers have been poor against the spread as the home team in 2019, covering just 42.9% of the time with a 3-4-1 record.
- The Vikings have outperformed this week’s opponent in the red zone this season, with a scoring percentage of 61.67% (the 49ers are at 53.23%).
Pick: Minnesota
TENNESSEE TITANS at BALTIMORE RAVENS (-9) (Over/Under 47.5)
(Saturday, 8:15 pm Eastern, CBS)
The Titans thought they were walking into the lion’s den last week, only to peep their heads in to discover that fearsome creature of yesteryear had lost its touch and fallen peacefully asleep. The den they are trying to infiltrate this week may not be as accommodating, however. The class of the AFC this season has been the Baltimore Ravens, a team that set a record for rushing yards in a season (3,296) and dominated their competition after a subpar start that saw them drop a game to Cleveland. Make no mistake: this is a tough spot for the Titans – and Vegas confirms the size of the task with the -9 line. As the sixth seed, they enter this game with little or no pressure. After all, nobody expects them to even keep it close. When they dig down deeper on their opponent, they might be encouraged to find a chink in their armor that dovetails nicely with their strength: The Ravens have given up 4.4 yards per rush this season. Derrick Henry has made a habit of slicing and dicing defenses over the past few games. The Titans’ formula for success runs through him.
The number one seed always faces pressure to perform at home, so the question for Baltimore is simple: can they translate their historic and hugely impressive regular season into a postseason groove? If the answer is yes, then nobody in the AFC will be able to stop them. The most fascinating aspect of this game when Baltimore has the football is how defensive-minded Titans coach Mike Vrabel will choose to attack him. Will he be able to construct a game plan to at least limit his effectiveness as a runner, thus forcing him into more passing attempts on what is scheduled to be a windy night in Baltimore? The health of Mark Ingram, who was instrumental to the Ravens’ success this season, is a major question mark. Calf injuries can be tricky beasts for players who require explosiveness. Baltimore should get the job done, but the Titans are not the type of team to roll over. Baltimore 27 Tennessee 20.
Key stats:
- The Ravens have made a mockery of Vegas lines this year, covering the spread 62.5% of games with an average margin of victory of 15.6 points (+10.2 points against the spread).
- The Titans offense has been comparable to that of the Ravens in yards per play, with the visitors recording six yards compared to Baltimore’s 6.1.
Pick: Tennessee
HOUSTON TEXANS at KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (-9.5) (Over/Under 50)
(Sunday, 3:05 pm Eastern, CBS)
The regular-season meeting between these teams back on October 13th saw the Texans deploy their rushing attack to the tune of 192 yards to keep the ball away from Patrick Mahomes II as much as possible. After a highly entertaining game that came down to the wire, that strategy worked. Bill O’Brien’s team possessed the ball for a whopping 39 minutes and 48 seconds. If the Texans choose to roll out the same game plan, one will assume the Chiefs defense, a unit playing at a higher level than earlier this season, will be ready. The Chiefs defense will have to be wary of Deshaun Watson, who demonstrated last week that a cold start doesn’t necessarily imply a bad day; he can come to life and strike a death blow at any moment. The status of Will Fuller, one of the most discussed topics in NFL media, will be important for the Texans’ offensive potency, but the show runs through Watson.
The question for the Chiefs offense is how aggressive they will be. After all, to avoid a time of possession battle they would be best served by attacking this vulnerable Houston secondary and establishing a lead. The bye week generally serves Andy Reid well, though he has just a 10-9 record in the postseason and has famously stumbled in key time management situations over the years. With the Patriots out of the picture in the AFC, this is Kansas City’s moment to seize control of this conference – maybe for the foreseeable future – and set up a likely meeting with Baltimore in the conference championship. The Texans got away with one last week, but the chances are the wizened Chiefs will not be so accommodating. Kansas City 31 Houston 17.
Key stats:
- As the away underdog in Deshaun Watson’s two full seasons at quarterback, the Texans are 6-4 against the spread as the away underdog, a 60% cover rate.
- The Chiefs defense has really come into its own over the last few weeks, and they hold a clear edge over Houston in red zone defense scoring percentage, giving up touchdowns on just 50.88% compared to 70.59% for Romeo Crennel’s unit.
Pick: Kansas City
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS at GREEN BAY PACKERS (-4) (Over/Under 46)
(Sunday, 6:40 pm Eastern, NBC)
The Seahawks caught a break in Philadelphia with Carson Wentz leaving the game early with a concussion, but they deserve credit for getting the job done. They have the air of a team that is content to do just enough to secure victory, foregoing style for substance. Russell Wilson has a career playoff record of 9-5 and tends to perform in the big games. Who could forget the famous NFC Championship game comeback that Wilson orchestrated to beat these same Packers in January 2015? The history between the teams only makes this game, expected to be 24F at kickoff, a cauldron of intrigue.
Many have been critical of the Packers this season, citing a lack of spark on offense and an unsexy defense as reasons to doubt their championship pedigree. But often the unsexy teams are the ones to fear most in the playoffs; this team fits the bill perfectly. The experience edge on the coaching side goes to Pete Carroll, of course, but Matt LaFleur has a few tricks up his sleeve as well. Aaron Rodgers has thrown only four interceptions this season compared to 26 touchdowns, so he, like Wilson, will not throw the game away. It will be up to the Packers defense that has given up just 14.3 points per game over the last three contests to keep the elusive Wilson at bay and take full advantage of the chilly conditions in Lambeau. With the weather likely to slow down the passing attacks, the four-point line makes sense. Seattle’s spirit is undeniable, so they should be able to keep it close. Green Bay 24 Seattle 21.
Key stats:
- With Russell Wilson at the helm, the Seahawks are 19-9-2 against the spread as the away underdog since 2012 (67.9% cover rate), a mark unmatched by any other team.
- Since 2008 (when Aaron Rodgers took over as the starter), the Packers have the best against the spread record at home in the league, boasting a 52-33-3 record (61.2% cover rate).
Pick: Seattle
PICKS OF THE WEEK: Minnesota, Tennessee, Kansas City, Seattle
DIVISIONAL PLAYS
As with the regular season format, this article will give out not only the Best Bets for the postseason but also a rating of each one on a 1-3 Star scale. The more stars, the bigger the emphasis on that side of the game.
The point spreads this week provide good opportunities to tease them through the key numbers of 3 and 7, while the totals are also tempting.
* ONE STAR GAMES *
- 3-TEAM DIVISIONAL LUCKY DIP (3.5-1 ODDS):
- KANSAS CITY (-2.5) vs. HOUSTON
- MINNESOTA (+7) at SAN FRANCISCO
- TENNESSEE (+9) at BALTIMORE
- 3-TEAM ROAD TEAM TEASER (3.44-1 ODDS):
- SEATTLE (+7.5) at GREEN BAY
- MINNESOTA (+7.5) at SAN FRANCISCO
- TENNESSEE (+10.5) at BALTIMORE
** TWO STAR GAMES **
- 2-TEAM OVER/UNDER SPECIAL (2.61-1 ODDS):
- SEATTLE at GREEN BAY – UNDER 46
- MINNESOTA at SAN FRANCISCO – UNDER 45.5
- 2-TEAM TEAM TOTAL SPECIAL (2.53-1 ODDS):
- SAN FRANCISCO TEAM POINTS – UNDER 26.5
- KANSAS CITY TEAM POINTS – OVER 30.5
*** THREE STAR GAMES ***
- DIVISIONAL MONEY LINE BANKER (1.91-1 ODDS)
- SAN FRANCISCO ‘FOR THE WIN’ (-320) vs. MINNESOTA
- BALTIMORE ‘FOR THE WIN’ (-450) vs. TENNESSEE
- KANSAS CITY ‘FOR THE WIN’ (-425) vs. HOUSTON
- GREEN BAY ‘FOR THE WIN’ (-200) vs. SEATTLE
RESULTS
Last Week / Postseason / Regular Season
- LAST WEEK: 0-4
- POSTSEASON OVERALL: 0-4
- REGULAR SEASON OVERALL: 135-131 (52.7%)
- BEST BETS: 32-33 (49.1%)
- PICK OF THE WEEK: 42-42 (50%), last week 0-4
Good luck this weekend!
Questions, suggestions, and comments are always welcome to larkin@footballguys.com
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