Here we are again this year, back for more NFL picks. It is with great pleasure that I take the reins from Jeff Pasquino after writing a guest edition last year. As someone who has won and lost their fair share of money on the NFL (and many other sports), this is bound to be a fun and unpredictable ride. Join me, won’t you?
As with the format in previous years, this article will help those of you who compete in confidence pools and in ranking selections, which may come in handy on those Las Vegas trips. Games are rated based on preference for both the point spread and other angles (such as totals or over/unders) with 1-3 “Stars”, which basically highlight the best bets for the week. Those games which have zero stars are not preferred one way or the other, but will still be covered, discussed and a winner will be predicted for those trying to get some advice for their weekly office pools.
It is hard to believe we have already reached Week 4. There has been the usual allotment of random results as is the NFL’s trademark, but with each passing set of games things are becoming clearer. This week does not present us with as many ridiculously large spreads, so we have more leeway to consider teasers.
The byes begin this week as well, allowing us to hone in just a little bit more as the Jets and 49ers lick their wounds before jumping back into the fray in Week 5.
(Note that the over/unders are taken from VegasInsider.com)
(Thursday) PHILADELPHIA at GREEN BAY (-3 to -4.5) (Over/Under 47.5)
Prior to the season, many experts had tabbed the Eagles as a shoo-in for a playoff spot, expecting a tit-for-tat battle with the Cowboys for division supremacy. Through three weeks, however, Philadelphia is 1-2 and their only win was against Washington – and that required a rousing second-half comeback. The wheels may not be falling off quite yet, but Doug Pederson’s men have some real soul-searching to do and a short turnaround to do it in.
The Packers, meanwhile, haven’t a care in the world. A lot of their success is attributable to their defense, which has stymied opponents at key moments. Mike Pettine’s unit is giving the offense the license to grow as three-and-outs are becoming a trend and not just an aberration for Aaron Rodgers and head coach Matt LaFleur. The Packers have covered the spread as the home team 60.5% this decade, a mark bettered only by Minnesota and New England.
It is not do-or-die stakes for Philadelphia, but a short week really puts them at a disadvantage here just when they needed it the least.
Pick: Green Bay
TENNESSEE at ATLANTA (-3.5 to -5) (Over/Under 46.5)
The line movement for this game is revealing Vegas clearly is all out on the Titans. And perhaps that is the correct move considering just how outright poor they played last Thursday night in Jacksonville, with Marcus Mariota once again failing to rally the troops. Narratives aside, sometimes wagering comes down to trust. How much you trust a team is crucial, and Mariota has given the betting public very little reason to do that.
Atlanta, coming off a road defeat, will be happy to return home where their ills seemingly evaporate at times and potential losses turn into last-second wins. Tennessee’s defense can pose some problems for the Falcons offensive line, but despite the losses, Matt Ryan has been playing well and should be able to mitigate the pass rush with quick releases.
All things being equal, this comes down to a quarterback battle of wits, and Ryan has the clear edge.
Pick: Atlanta
WASHINGTON at NEW YORK GIANTS (-2.5 to -3) (Over/Under 47.5)
Did somebody say Danny Dimes? You could almost hear, if you strained to listen, the cackles of glee coming from Dave Gettleman on Sunday as the Daniel Jones-led Giants did just enough to squeak out what could go down as a season-changing victory. Do the G-Men still have a litany of problems? Absolutely, and most of them are defensive frailties. Offensively, this team has been solid in pass protection and has the weapons to compete in any game if it turns into an air show.
The excitement from last week’s heart-stopping win will carry forward into this week’s clash with division rival Washington, who looked shell-shocked in a shellacking by the far superior Bears on Monday Night Football. Redskins head coach Jay Gruden insists on sticking with Case Keenum at quarterback, but that conviction may be short-lived if results do not improve. The inherent uncertainty means the Giants, even without Saquon Barkley, are an excellent play.
Pick: New York
LOS ANGELES CHARGERS (-17) at MIAMI (Over/Under 44.5)
A telling moment in Miami’s third loss of the season came early in the game. With the Dolphins set up mere yards from the Dallas goal line, Josh Rosen implored his coaches to allow him one more attempt to get a touchdown on fourth and goal. Instead, his pleas fell on deaf ears and the Fins took the safe option, the predictable option, and kicked the three points. Miami might need some of the attitude Rosen displayed to turn this ship around.
A visit from the Chargers, themselves fresh off another bitter defeat, will present as a real opportunity for Miami. Despite all their deficiencies, they held Dallas to a low score up until half time last week. Could they go one better here and surprise the notoriously unpredictable Chargers? The spread of 17 points seems a little generous to me. Take Miami and the points and see what happens.
Pick: Miami
OAKLAND at INDIANAPOLIS (-6.5 to -7) (Over/Under 44.5)
Since Jon Gruden took the reins in Oakland at the beginning of the 2018 season, the team has, ahem, taken their fair share of knocks. Hard knocks, you could say. Their road record is an Achilles heel of this team. Since 2018, Oakland is just 2-7 against the spread on their travels, a mark that Gruden and company will have to improve if they are ever to be considered a contender.
After a humiliating loss in Minnesota, the Raiders will have to buck up for another road test in Indianapolis, where Jacoby Brissett is suddenly looking like a long-term viable option. The echo of boos directed towards the retiring Andrew Luck has suddenly faded away, to be replaced by a cacophony of cheers as the Colts, a contender, show their mettle. What Frank Reich has shaped offensively is quite something to behold: a balanced approach that emphasizes the skills of Brissett.
With all due respect to Derek Carr, his margin for error may be shrinking – he and this Raiders team cannot afford to lay another egg on the road. And yet these Raiders don’t seem to change their stripes. Knock on wood if you’re with me.
Pick: Indianapolis
CAROLINA at HOUSTON (-4.5) (Over/Under 46)
In a week featuring young quarterbacks stepping up, Kyle Allen’s performance was somewhat overshadowed. Just as Daniel Jones was leading the Giants comeback, Allen was the picture of poise and calm as he led the Carolina offense like he had been born to do it. The 23-year-old quarterback was described by head coach Ron Rivera as unflappable prior to the Arizona game; he proved that on Sunday in spades.
A tougher test awaits this week in the form of Houston, a team that continues to grind out performances despite obvious deficiencies. The offensive line is a major concern, and yet Deshaun Watson can make that unit look good with his ability to escape and his aggressive, downfield mindset. The defense is bend but don’t break but has come into its own. The arrow is pointing up for this team.
An interesting side note surrounding this game is Allen’s return to the city where he played in college at Houston. Of course, there is always the chance that regular Carolina starting quarterback Cam Newton returns, but don’t you think Riverboat Ron might roll the dice on the accuracy, poise, and predictability of Allen for one more week?
Pick: Carolina
KANSAS CITY (-6 to -6.5) at DETROIT (Over/Under 53.5)
The Chiefs are 4-2 against the spread as road favorites since Patrick Mahomes II took over as the starting quarterback. That sample size may be small now, but in time it should balloon what with the proficiency of this young master at the position. It truly is a joy to watch Mahomes play. He is one of the few passers who, when he prepares to unleash one down the field, you feel a huge completion is a fait accompli.
Matthew Stafford might be experiencing some QB envy in the build-up to this game, and one must wonder if the uber-competitive Detroit signal-caller will have a little chip on his shoulder. The Lions are still not legitimate if this line is anything to go by; a 6.5-point home underdog is a wailing siren that screams ‘You’re a fraud’ if there ever was one. Detroit is 3-3 against the spread as the home underdog under Matt Patricia, but it would be folly, no, madness to bet against Mahomes.
Pick: Kansas City
CLEVELAND at BALTIMORE (-5 to -5.5) (Over/Under 46.5)
Vegas bumped up this line by a half-point, presumably in response to Cleveland’s flat offensive performance on Sunday Night Football. There is something off about this team at present, but it is hard to pinpoint the root cause. One of the major issues just from the eye test is Baker Mayfield and his skittishness in the pocket. The offensive line has not given him a good enough platform to throw it around the lot. As a result, he is pushing too hard, seeing ghosts and throwing the ball into the stands after rolling away from pressure.
Freddie Kitchens must cook up something different this week to tackle a Baltimore defense that, while shredded at times by the Chiefs, has a good cohesiveness about them. The Browns should be proud of their defensive effort against the Rams, but this Ravens offense will show them some tricks they have never seen. In the grand scheme of things, Lamar Jackson’s hiccup last week will be just that – a small setback – in what should be a successful year for Baltimore. The 5.5-point spread seems just about right.
Pick: Baltimore
NEW ENGLAND (-6 to -7) at BUFFALO (Over/Under 43.5)
The Patriots have come out of their bye weeks of Miami and the New York Jets – sorry, but it’s just true – and face yet another division opponent, only this time it’s a competitive team. Sean McDermott’s Bills will provide New England, mostly untested to this point, with a real challenge. When a Miami player had a borderline late hit on Tom Brady two weeks ago, a referee reportedly told the player to ‘go easy on Tom’. The Bills players might be hearing a lot of that this week if their swarming defense can get into a groove.
Of course, it would be criminal not to mention the Patriots defense, itself arguably the most well-coached unit in the league. Containing the Bills offense doesn’t sound like the most trying of tests for someone of Bill Belichick’s experience. The wizened coach will relish another chance to confuse and harry the mistake-prone Josh Allen. Still, Brady is 42 years old and he should be on the receiving end of a few crunching shots in this game. If the Bills can keep this close, they could even sneak out a victory at home. The safe option here is to take the points on the home underdog, especially if you can buy it at seven.
Pick: Buffalo
TAMPA BAY at LOS ANGELES RAMS (-9 to -10) (Over/Under 48.5)
The Rams are off to a 3-0 start on the back of three impressive victories, two of which came on the road against the Panthers and Browns. Not to be sniffed at, but head coach Sean McVay has high expectations of his team and, if you asked him, would probably admit the team is right where he expected them to be. Quietly, though, his offensive line might be a concern. Jared Goff has absorbed a lot of hits and the running game has been stagnant for long periods.
The Buccaneers, fresh off a loss typical of their luck, or lack thereof, in recent years, will go west hoping to spring an upset. Jameis Winston may have his work cut out here, with the game script likely to tend towards more passing than running for the visitors. The NFC South team certainly have the horses to keep this one interesting, but the Rams have a way of piling up points quickly at home.
Pick: Los Angeles
SEATTLE (-3 to -4) at ARIZONA (Over/Under 47)
These two rivals have played some memorable games over the years, but rarely have we seen as intriguing a battle of quarterbacks as this. Kyler Murray will get his first taste of the NFC West as the Seahawks come to town, Pete Carroll no doubt still fuming over his first home loss in September as Seahawks head coach. Seattle’s offense made the scoreline look more respectable, but ultimately Carroll’s team was outclassed by the Saints.
And arguably, the Seahawks should have lost to the Bengals in Week 1 as well. Despite the 2-1 record, all is not necessarily well here. The Cardinals, meanwhile, produced a game effort against the Panthers but were unable to sustain momentum offensively, eventually petering out in the second half. Questions still abound over Murray’s viability as a starter in a league where the hits are harder and the windows smaller. Expect a similarly feisty duel here, but Carroll’s tenure has seen the Seahawks cover the spread 56.6% of the time against NFC West rivals, with an average margin of victory of 6.5 points. Pound the Seahawks line here.
Pick: Seattle
MINNESOTA at CHICAGO (-3 to -2.5) (Over/Under 38)
The marquee match-up among the late games without a doubt, though with the total standing at a paltry 38 it profiles as one that Scott Hanson might rarely mention on NFL RedZone. The Bears looked every bit the best defense in the league on Monday Night Football, choking the life out of Washington’s offense and creating havoc in the backfield. Kirk Cousins could be under siege in the Windy City – and it’s not likely to be pretty.
The Vikings have shown they, too, can be a stifling defense under Mike Zimmer. Their first few opponents this season would attest to that fact. This one will come down to which quarterback can withstand the heat on third downs and make throws in clutch situations. Neither Cousins nor Mitchell Trubisky meets those criteria on a regular basis. The home team should get the edge but jump on it before the hype from Monday pushes it up to -3.5.
Pick: Chicago
JACKSONVILLE at DENVER (-3.5 to -3) (Over/Under 38.5)
For the Broncos, it’s getting late early, as the old saying goes. Few would have anticipated an 0-3 start in Denver, what with all the buzz and excitement surrounding the hiring of Vic Fangio as head coach and the turning over of a new leaf at the quarterback position. And yet, here they are. The opening loss to the Raiders was a bad omen considering how poor that team has looked since. Denver could call upon rookie quarterback Drew Lock at some point to spark something, but all reports indicate the wet-behind-the-ears passer is not close to being ready.
Jacksonville is coming to the Mile High City with a little swagger after thumping their division rival Tennessee last Thursday night. The 10-day rest period will have done their ailing players good, as well as providing extra time to create a game plan to combat Joe Flacco and company. Gardner Minshew will see plenty of man coverage in this game as the Broncos force him to make throws into tight windows, which he has ably done since taking over. Don’t overthink this one.
Pick: Jacksonville
(Sunday Night) DALLAS (-1.5 to -2.5) at NEW ORLEANS (Over/Under 47)
Since Sean Payton took over as head coach in 2006, New Orleans has covered 52.7% of the time at home, with an average margin of victory of 6.4 points. The team may be without starting quarterback Drew Brees for the next few weeks, but the talent on this roster is more than enough to ride out the storm. Defensively, the Saints have a formidable unit across the board, with the only liability perhaps at linebacker. Teddy Bridgewater is not going to lose the game with bad decisions, especially at home.
All the ducks are in a row for the Saints, but here come the Cowboys. Jason Garrett’s reign has seen his team cover the spread 57.7% of the time as a road favorite, one of the best marks in the league. The Cowboys are 3-0, but in quiet moments they might acknowledge that the first three weeks haven’t posed too much of a challenge for a team of their caliber. The Saints are a tough out for any team when they are in the Superdome, so Dak Prescott and Kellen Moore’s connection, among other things, will be put under the microscope.
It’s a must-watch affair, so it seems almost a shame to wager on it. When you put these two rosters side by side, they are similar enough talent-wise. But there’s something special about the Saints at home in prime time.
Pick: New Orleans
(Monday Night) CINCINNATI at PITTSBURGH (-4.5 to -4) (Over/Under 43.5)
The Monday Night Football games haven’t been too spicy thus far this season, but this AFC North clash could buck the trend. Pittsburgh has dug themselves a hole, falling to 0-3 after a disappointing loss at San Francisco. The Bengals are winless too, though they will be frustrated they couldn’t finish games in Seattle and Buffalo. Entering the bear pit of old rival Pittsburgh this week is a tall task.
The popular narrative entering Week 3 was that Pittsburgh couldn’t be 0-3. Such a storied franchise would find a way to win against all odds. Not so much, it seems. This team has the talent to claw its way back into relevance, and it starts here. Can Mike Tomlin rally his troops for a do-or-die home game? Bengals head coach Zac Taylor has a slight edge here, being an unfamiliar opponent presenting a new offense. Still, the Steelers surely won’t fall to 0-4… or will they?
Pick: Pittsburgh
BEST BETS
Once again this year this article will give out not only the Best Bets but also a rating of each one on a 1-3 Star scale. The more stars, the bigger the emphasis on that side of the game.
Though we may have more clarity after two weeks of play, things are still developing in the 2019 story. Week 4 provides us with a nice line-up of games, with the uncertain quarterback situations around the league creating some value in the lines. The way to best play this week is to look at the teams most likely to come away with a win and then tease them together (similar to how to best play the NFL playoffs). That narrows the focus down to three games for 6-point teasers. Here is how they rank:
- 1 KANSAS CITY (-6.5) at DETROIT
- 2 LOS ANGELES RAMS (-10) vs. TAMPA BAY
- 3 INDIANAPOLIS (-7) vs. OAKLAND
With these likes in mind, here are the Week 4 selections:
* ONE STAR GAMES *
- 6-POINT TEASER: LOS ANGELES (-4) vs. TAMPA BAY
- 6-POINT TEASER: INDIANAPOLIS (-1) vs. OAKLAND
- 2-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (2.65-1 ODDS):
- LOS ANGELES (-4)
- INDIANAPOLIS (-1)
- 3-POINT TEASER: SEATTLE (-1) at ARIZONA
- 3-POINT TEASER: BALTIMORE (-2.5) vs. CLEVELAND
- 2-TEAM, 3-POINT TEASER:
- SEATTLE (-1)
- BALTIMORE (-2.5)
** TWO STAR GAMES **
- KANSAS CITY (-6.5) at DETROIT
- 2-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (2.65-1 ODDS):
- KANSAS CITY (-0.5)
- SEATTLE (-1)
*** THREE STAR GAMES ***
- None this week.
PICK(S) OF THE WEEK: Kansas City, Los Angeles Rams, Baltimore, Indianapolis, New York Giants
RESULTS
Last Week / Season
LAST WEEK: 9-7
SEASON OVERALL: 28-20 (58.3%)
BEST BETS: 8-6 (57%), last week 2-2
PICK OF THE WEEK: 11-6 (64%), last week 4-0
Good luck this weekend!
Questions, suggestions, and comments are always welcome to larkin@footballguys.com
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