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Touchdowns are NFL and fantasy football game-changers. While volume is nice (and a precursor to scoring), a touchdown shifts head-to-head matchups with a single play. Touchdown regression is the premise of betting on the big-picture probability of a player regressing towards the NFL average and/or their individual career average. Looking at the first eight weeks of the season, here are the regression candidates at running back and wide receiver:
running BACKS
POSITIVE REGRESSION CANDIDATES
Fournette had a hearty 3.5% rushing touchdown rate in his career (21 games) before his 2019 run of ice-cold touchdown production with a single score spanning 163 rushes, just 0.6%. Fournette is seeing the No.2 attempts inside the red zone of running backs (31) and is No.3 inside the 10-yard-line. However, Fournette is outside the top-25 in cracks inside the 5-yard-line and has a single score inside the 5-yard-line all season and is 0-for-13 between the 5 and 10-yard-line. These conversions are bound to get better over the second half of the season and Fournette is likely to see more than 0.5 attempts per game in the final eight games.
LeVeon Bell
Bell, like Fournette, has a single rushing touchdown in 2019 on 100+ attempts (109 to be exact). Bell's career rate is 2.8% where his 2019 rate is about a third of the career mark. The Jets have been notably horrible on offense, but half of that is without Sam Darnold under center. Bell has a laughable TWO rushes inside the 5-yard-line all season, behind plenty of quarterbacks and three different Patriots players (Sony Michel, Tom Brady, Brandon Bolden). Even more limiting is Bell's six rushes in the red zone.
Mixon is the third back with an unquestioned lead role, 100+ carries this season and one or fewer (in this case zero) touchdowns. Mixon scored 12 touchdowns on 415 career carries pre-2019 for a 2.9% rate. Mixon sits at 0% obviously for 2019. Mixon is outside the top-20 in red-zone rushes and is the only back in the NFL to see more than five rushes inside the 5-yard-line and not have at least two rushing scores. The Bengals lone aspect of change upcoming would be the return of A.J. Green on an otherwise dismal team No.29 in yards-per-play and No.27 in net yards-per-attempt passing. Mixon is getting minimal help but the point-blank goal-line chances are strong enough to warrant regression over the second half of the season.
NEGATIVE REGRESSION CANDIDATES
Mark Ingram
Ingram has a whopping seven rushing touchdowns on 99 carries this season, already the third-most in a season of his career despite playing seven games. Ingram has a lofty 3.8% touchdown rate for his career in a grinder role for the productive Saints offense over eight seasons and is still nearly double the mark in 2019. Ingram has also converted an unreal 75% of his eight looks inside the 5-yard-line (No.3 in the NFL in attempts) for scores while somewhere in the 50% range is expected. Ingram has scored on just one attempt beyond the 5-yard-line this season, relying on his point-blank looks for his torrid season start. Also, Gus Edwards and Lamar Jackson have combined for 14 carries inside the 10-yard-line with no scores and Jackson has yet to see a look inside the 5-yard-line. Beyond Ingram's individual touchdown rate likely to decline, Jackson and Edwards are likely to convert a few attempts to siphon same-drive attempts from Ingram.
Coleman is averaging more carries per game than any season in Atlanta but is still a committee option in San Francisco with 71 attempts and five touchdowns (7% rate), more than double his four-year Atlanta career rate. Matt Breida has sparsely been used in the red zone with Coleman, Jeff Wilson, and Raheem Mostert splitting red zone and goal-line work.
wide receiverS
POSITIVE REGRESSION CANDIDATES
Boyd has enjoyed half a season without A.J. Green and Boyd's 2% touchdown rate is historically low. Boyd has not been an above-average touchdown scorer in his career (6.6% rate) but his 2019 rate is a far cry from even a dip season. Of 21 targets inside the 10-yard-line for the Bengals, Boyd has just one look on the season with 16 of them going towards Tyler Eifert, Auden Tate, and Joe Mixon, all of whom have short-range touchdowns.
Woods has yet to find the end zone are a receiver with 38 receptions. Woods has a pre-2019 career rate of 6.7% with a career-high of six scores and 11 total receiving touchdowns over two seasons with the Rams. Despite 17 targets inside the 10-yard-line as a team, Woods has zero looks in that area of the field despite seeing 18% of the team targets last year, which would be roughly three targets this season with the same percentage.
NEGATIVE REGRESSION CANDIDATES
Golladay has been an 8.2% touchdown rate receiver through two seasons, ballooning to 19.4% in 2019. Golladay led the team with 21% of the targets in the red zone and inside the 10-yard-line. Fast forward to 2019 and Golladay is seeing 44% inside the 10-yard-line and 27% inside the red zone. Golladay has by far the most receiving yardage in the NFL inside the 10-yard-line.
McLaurin is off to an 18% touchdown rate career start on 28 receptions. McLaurin is seeing double the targets inside the 10-yard-line than any teammate (Trey Quinn is second) and the same goes for red-zone looks. With a likely change to Dwayne Haskins (Washington has to turn the page for good soon, right?) is a moving piece for the struggling Washington pass game as well.
Williams has converted a balmy 67% of his red-zone targets into touchdowns this season for Oakland, including 100% of his catches into scores. Williams' sky-high 25% touchdown rate is more than double even his 11% touchdown rate from four years with the Chargers, a quality offense and passing game. Either Williams' volume needs to rise (just six targets per game) or his second-half touchdown tally is set to decline based on historical trends and regression probability.