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The dynasty trade market heats up in the middle of the season as owners point towards a contending or building mindset according to their 2019 results thus far. With sample size growing for the current season, owners are more comfortable projecting roles, usage, and performance than entering Week 1 or in the early weeks. As a result, becoming more active with bolstering a playoff-caliber roster or shifting to 2020 viable options is critical. This week's edition will look at rosters building towards 2020.
BUILDING ROSTER TRADE IDEAS
The general idea behind trading as a non-contending dynasty team is two-fold - shift production from the current year to the following (or future) season and in the process aid rookie draft position. For the record, I am not an advocate (nor is any dynasty league) of 'tanking' which is purposefully setting sub-optimal lineups and the like to improve draft position. As a result, I advocate using potential points instead of raw win-loss and/or points scored to order non-playoff teams for the annual rookie draft. Potential points uses the optimized lineup each week a la best ball scoring to better gauge the strength of a dynasty team.
INJURED PLAYERS, SHIFTING PRODUCTION
One of the easiest ways to shift production into the future is by acquiring injured players and selling current producers in the deal. Another method is selling producers for underproducing talents and/or future picks. Here is a list of notable injured (for the rest of the season or chunk of the season-to-date) players and underproducing options, who may be available from contenders looking to swap for rest-of-season production:
*All listed trades have been executed in dynasty trades in the past week and are the type of construction recommended to non-contending dynasty teams*
QUARTERBACKS
Mayfield has been a solid disappointment compared to sky-high Cleveland expectations entering the season. Mayfield has a weekly high finish of QB12 to-date and has as many QB24 or lower finishes than higher. Mayfield's rookie tape was strong and the weapons are optimal with a returning David Njoku and (ideally) an improved offensive line eventually. Goff can be capitalized in the trade market with a middling season start and especially a woeful display in Week 6. Trust the talent, system, and weapons as the Rams' schedule softens for the rest of the season and especially the next two weeks against Atlanta and Cincinnati. This buy window could be a matter of days for Goff. Newton is hurt and Kyle Allen has a spotless record in his absence in Carolina. Even if (worst case) Allen keeps the job, Newton will find work in the NFL without struggle and, when healthy, has been a dominant fantasy producer in his career outside of blips on the radar. Here are some recent trades involving these targets:
- Mayfield, Royce Freeman, A.J. Brown, 21 3rd for Russell Wilson
- Mayfield for Daniel Jones
- Mayfield for 20 2nd
- Goff, 20 2nd for Philip Rivers (superflex)
- Goff, Mayfield for Jimmy Garoppolo, Dak Prescott (superflex)
- Goff, A.J. Brown for Aaron Jones
- Newton for Marcus Mariota, 20 2nd (superflex)
- Newton, 20 2nd for Austin Ekeler (superflex)
- Newton for Marcus Mariota
RUNNING BACKS
Guice is still an unknown through a season and a half due to injuries, plus Washington has a dark cloud surrounding them to lack market appeal for anyone not named Terry McLaurin. Mixon's situation is horrific considering the offensive line struggles and game script limitations. Sanders has flashed, but Jordan Howard is the clear 1A back for now, limiting Sanders to a flex-at-best lineup appeal unless an injury occurs. Penny is a bet on Round 1 pedigree with a prototypically-sized back with quality metrics to eventually work out even if blocked (for now) by Chris Carson.
- Guice for Mark Ingram
- Guice, 20 1st for David Johnson, 20 2nd, 20 2nd
- Mixon, Matthew Stafford for Matt Ryan, Allen Robinson, Latavius Murray
- Mixon for D.J. Chark
- Mixon for D.K. Metcalf, 20 2nd
- Sanders, 20 2nd, for Allen Robinson
- Sanders for Matt Breida, 21 3rd, 22 2nd
- Sanders, Kareem Hunt, Mike Williams, 20 1st, 20 3rd for Philip Lindsay, Adam Thielen, Chris Thompson
- Penny, Jaylen Samuels for Mecole Hardman, Demarcus Robinson
- Penny, Dak Prescott for Philip Rivers, Tyler Lockett (superflex)
- Penny for Mark Walton, 20 2nd
WIDE RECEIVERS
Davis has mired through a Year 3 slump after a promising 2018 season. Marcus Mariota is replaced by Ryan Tannehill starting in Week 7 and Davis has only one top-40 weekly finish this season. Bet on the pedigree and an elite profile where if we have seen Davis' best, he would be a massive historical bust a la betting on Davante Adams from a few years ago. Brown flashed early in the season but has sagged down with injury or a flash game since. Isabella is off to a sluggish start but has the metric profile similarities of Brandin Cooks and rare movement and production from the college ranks. Also, a bet on Isabella is a bet on Kyler Murray and the Arizona passing game in the macro view.
- Davis for 21 3rd
- Davis for Tevin Coleman
- Davis for Larry Fitzgerald
- Brown, John Ross for Chris Carson
- Brown, David Montgomery, Jared Cook, 20 1st, 20 1st for Chris Godwin, Zach Ertz
- Isabella for DeSean Jackson, Darius Slayton
- Isabella, Mike Evans, Matt Breida for Cooper Kupp, Ted Ginn Jr
TIGHT ENDS
Dissly was off to a torrid start before another to end his season in 2019. Dissly had four straight TE6 or better weeks before the Week 6 injury. Dissly is a risk to miss a chunk of 2020 or be a shell of himself, but the connection with Russell Wilson was quickly forged and his upside is worth the bet especially for non-contending teams this year. Hurst is a historical Round 1 pedigree bet for a future TE1 season. Despite Mark Andrews having a breakout season on the same offense, Hurst has five top-20 weeks this season as a solid 2TE option and middling streamer if desperate in a start-1 format. Hurst is also one of the sky-high injury-away upside options at the position if Andrews were to miss time in the near term.
- Dissly for Ricky Seals-Jones
- Dissly, 20 1st for Mark Ingram
- Dissly, 20 3rd for Delanie Walker
- Hurst, 20 4th for 20 3rd
- Hurst for 20 4th, 20 4th
- Hurst for Hunter Renfrow
