Each week, this column will take a critical look at key statistical trends to highlight pass rushing and tackle matchups to exploit and avoid. We'll be heavily relying on another great feature at FBG this season, the IDP Matchup Spreadsheet that will be generated by Aaron Rudnicki. That spreadsheet will contain weekly average statistical measures to help identify those defensive teams who are facing the best and worst opportunity as the season progresses. While this column will include analysis of tackle and pass rush opportunity and matchup data, it's only a fraction of the data available in the spreadsheet. We hope that the Matchup Spreadsheet and this column will join John Norton's weekly IDP projections, Doug Drinen's Matchup Analyzer Tool and our customizable MyFBG function as useful tools to assist in making weekly line-up and waiver wire decisions.
You are very welcome to the final edition of the IDP Matchup column here at Footballguys in 2019. I have been penning this defensive diary for the past several years and I am delighted to be able to share some tidbits to help you secure a league title come December.
For those of you who don’t know me, my name is Dave Larkin. I am a veteran IDP player and what some would call a diehard fan of this game of football that we all love so much.
Defense is my passion. Over the past few years, I have assimilated countless pages of data from various sources to hone my knowledge of the defensive side of the football. Every week I will study film from the previous week’s games and provide you with nuggets of wisdom that will lead you to a championship.
The final week of the regular season can be highly unpredictable. The NFL is difficult enough to forecast as it is. Throw in the added complication of teams resting starters and you have a whole other thing to consider. The best advice is to move your championship game back to Week 16 for future seasons, but you need not worry if you’re facing your decider this week. As always, we have you covered at Footballguys.
Without further ado, let’s kick off with this week’s match-ups.
Team Defense | Team Offense | |||||||||
LEAGUE AVG | Pressure Applied | QB | QB | Drop Backs | Pressure Allowed | QB Sacks | QB Hits | Drop | ||
AVERAGE | Sacks | Hits | Faced | Allowed | Allowed | Backs | ||||
2016 NFL Average | 14.2% | 2.18 | 5.37 | 37.8 | 14.2% | 2.18 | 5.37 | 37.8 | ||
2017 NFL Average | 15.1% | 2.33 | 5.49 | 36.5 | 15.0% | 2.33 | 5.49 | 36.5 | ||
2018 NFL Average | 15.0% | 2.50 | 5.56 | 37.0 | 15.0% | 2.50 | 5.56 | 37.0 | ||
2019 NFL Average | 15.0% | 2.51 | 5.59 | 37.3 | 15.0% | 2.51 | 5.59 | 37.3 | ||
Team Defense | Team Offense | |||||||||
Pressure Applied | QB | QB | Drop Backs | Pressure Allowed | QB Sacks | QB Hits | Drop | |||
Sacks | Hits | Faced | Allowed | Allowed | Backs | |||||
ARIZONA Cardinals | 13.6% | 2.4 | 5.4 | 39.9 | 10.9% | 3.4 | 4.1 | 37.9 | ||
ATLANTA Falcons | 11.9% | 1.7 | 4.3 | 36.0 | 17.7% | 3.1 | 8.0 | 45.1 | ||
BALTIMORE Ravens | 19.2% | 2.4 | 7.1 | 37.1 | 12.6% | 1.9 | 3.7 | 29.6 | ||
BUFFALO Bills | 16.2% | 3.0 | 6.1 | 37.6 | 16.8% | 2.5 | 5.8 | 34.4 | ||
CAROLINA Panthers | 17.4% | 3.5 | 6.6 | 38.2 | 14.8% | 3.6 | 6.2 | 42.1 | ||
CHICAGO Bears | 13.7% | 2.2 | 5.4 | 39.1 | 12.4% | 2.7 | 4.9 | 39.1 | ||
CINCINNATI Bengals | 14.2% | 1.6 | 4.5 | 31.6 | 13.0% | 3.1 | 5.4 | 41.1 | ||
CLEVELAND Browns | 14.9% | 2.6 | 5.2 | 35.1 | 11.5% | 2.4 | 4.2 | 36.6 | ||
DALLAS Cowboys | 15.6% | 2.3 | 5.9 | 37.4 | 13.7% | 1.6 | 5.3 | 38.7 | ||
DENVER Broncos | 12.8% | 2.4 | 4.6 | 35.8 | 15.6% | 2.8 | 5.4 | 34.4 | ||
DETROIT Lions | 11.1% | 1.9 | 4.4 | 39.2 | 14.6% | 2.7 | 5.8 | 39.6 | ||
GREEN BAY Packers | 16.2% | 2.5 | 6.0 | 37.1 | 15.1% | 2.4 | 5.5 | 36.5 | ||
HOUSTON Texans | 15.0% | 2.1 | 5.9 | 39.0 | 15.4% | 2.9 | 5.6 | 36.1 | ||
INDIANAPOLIS Colts | 14.1% | 2.4 | 5.1 | 36.5 | 17.9% | 1.9 | 6.2 | 34.8 | ||
JACKSONVILLE Jaguars | 17.3% | 3.1 | 6.1 | 35.0 | 13.2% | 2.6 | 5.2 | 39.6 | ||
KANSAS CITY Chiefs | 15.0% | 2.8 | 5.8 | 38.6 | 12.5% | 1.7 | 4.9 | 38.7 | ||
LOS ANGELES Chargers | 13.1% | 1.9 | 4.1 | 31.1 | 15.3% | 2.1 | 5.9 | 38.7 | ||
LOS ANGELES Rams | 15.0% | 3.1 | 5.7 | 38.2 | 12.5% | 1.5 | 5.0 | 40.1 | ||
MIAMI Dolphins | 11.3% | 1.3 | 3.9 | 34.1 | 22.9% | 3.9 | 9.4 | 40.9 | ||
MINNESOTA Vikings | 15.8% | 2.9 | 6.4 | 40.4 | 12.8% | 1.6 | 4.0 | 31.1 | ||
NEW ENGLAND Patriots | 17.2% | 2.9 | 6.2 | 36.2 | 14.0% | 1.9 | 5.9 | 41.8 | ||
NEW ORLEANS Saints | 16.7% | 3.4 | 6.9 | 41.1 | 9.9% | 1.2 | 3.7 | 37.6 | ||
NEW YORK Giants | 16.1% | 2.3 | 5.9 | 36.4 | 18.0% | 2.7 | 7.1 | 39.7 | ||
NEW YORK Jets | 16.4% | 2.1 | 6.3 | 38.4 | 19.5% | 3.4 | 7.1 | 36.2 | ||
OAKLAND Raiders | 11.5% | 2.1 | 4.0 | 34.9 | 8.9% | 1.7 | 3.0 | 33.6 | ||
PHILADELPHIA Eagles | 17.4% | 2.6 | 6.4 | 36.9 | 15.8% | 2.5 | 6.4 | 40.6 | ||
PITTSBURGH Steelers | 19.4% | 3.5 | 7.1 | 36.9 | 13.3% | 1.9 | 4.5 | 33.9 | ||
SAN FRANCISCO 49ers | 16.2% | 3.4 | 5.6 | 34.3 | 15.1% | 2.0 | 4.9 | 32.6 | ||
SEATTLE Seahawks | 10.8% | 1.7 | 4.4 | 40.9 | 19.5% | 3.0 | 6.8 | 34.9 | ||
TAMPA BAY Buccaneers | 15.4% | 2.6 | 6.8 | 44.1 | 16.3% | 3.1 | 7.0 | 42.9 | ||
TENNESSEE Titans | 13.4% | 2.6 | 5.4 | 39.9 | 19.7% | 3.6 | 6.4 | 32.2 | ||
WASHINGTON Redskins | 16.0% | 3.0 | 5.8 | 36.2 | 18.3% | 3.1 | 5.9 | 32.0 | ||
Strong Matchup | ||||||||||
Neutral | ||||||||||
Weak Matchup |
Pass Rushing Match-ups to Exploit
New Orleans pass rushers at Carolina
The Saints are in the green for all the primary pass-rushing metrics in our worksheet, with a pressure-applied number of 16.7%, 3.4 sacks and 6.9 hits per game. Due to the quality of their offense, the defense has been able to garner additional pass-rushing opportunities; they have faced 41.1 dropbacks per game. Expect a similar tale to unfold in this regular-season finale against Carolina. The grass field might slow down some of the more explosive pass rushers, but it shouldn’t be too much of a hindrance.
The Panthers, after all, are circling the drain and have been looking forward to next season since Ron Rivera’s ouster. The offensive line is in tatters, with rookie left tackle Dennis Daley showing poorly in recent weeks. With Will Grier making just his second start, the Saints will key on Christian McCaffrey and force the rookie to go elsewhere. Grier held the ball too long on a couple of dropbacks last week and took unnecessary sacks. If the script plays out the same way, this could be an ugly day for the Panthers – and a potentially explosive game for Saints players.
Key stat: The Saints rank fifth in sack percentage, with 8.3% of their pass rushes turning into quarterback takedowns.
Philadelphia pass rushers at New York Giants
The Eagles have it all to play for against the Giants. A loss here would give Dallas a back door into the NFC East title, so there will be no thought of resting starters. Philadelphia’s offense has disappointed at times this season for a multitude of reasons, but their defense has been steady and dangerous. Applying pressure on 17.4% of dropbacks, they have also averaged 6.4 quarterback hits per game and tend to create havoc in the right game scripts. This game profiles as such a contest.
In what could be Pat Shurmur’s final game as Giants head coach, the home team will draw most of their motivation from the thoughts of finishing on a high note to propel them into 2020. Daniel Jones has had his moments this year and has the skill players and confidence to test the Eagles’ weak secondary. But the Giants have allowed pressure on 18% of dropbacks, a number that augurs poorly for Jones’ chances against a strong front seven. Big play potential is there for Philadelphia, so trust in their main assets this week.
Key stat: The Giants offensive line has allowed 7.1 quarterback hits per game, placing them only below Miami and Atlanta.
Pass Rushing Match-ups to Avoid
Denver pass rushers vs. Oakland
Derek Carr continues to be the least pressured quarterback in the league, with the Raiders offensive line giving up pressure on just 8.9% of dropbacks. The offensive scheme helps him out, as they average just 33.6 dropbacks per game, but the line is sturdy and experienced at key spots. Bizarrely, the Raiders still have something to play for and could, if numerous things fall into place, squeak into the playoffs as the sixth seed.
For Denver, this season has been one of near-misses and inconsistent performances, but the momentum has been good of late. Drew Lock has a chance to slice and dice the Oakland secondary, which could create additional opportunities to rush the passer for the Broncos. However, the underlying statistics don’t support a breakout from the Broncos, as they have averaged just 2.4 sacks and 4.6 hits per game. Fade the Broncos in this spot.
Key stat: Denver’s defense has applied pressure on a paltry 12.8% of dropbacks, with the league average at 15%.
TEAM Defense | TEAM Offense | |||||||||||
Tackle Opportunity | Rush Attempts faced | Drop Backs | Offensive | Rush | Tackle Opps | Rush | Drop | Offensive | Rush Percentage | |||
AVERAGE | Faced | Snaps Faced | Percentage | Allowed | Attempts | Backs | Snaps | |||||
2016 NFL Average | 50.0 | 25.3 | 37.8 | 63.1 | 40.1% | 50.0 | 25.3 | 37.8 | 63.1 | 40.1% | ||
2017 NFL Average | 49.6 | 26.1 | 36.5 | 62.6 | 41.9% | 49.7 | 26.1 | 36.5 | 62.6 | 41.7% | ||
2018 NFL Average | 50.0 | 25.1 | 37.0 | 62.2 | 40.5% | 50.1 | 25.1 | 37.0 | 62.2 | 40.5% | ||
2019 NFL Average | 50.0 | 25.3 | 37.3 | 62.8 | 40.5% | 50.4 | 25.3 | 37.3 | 62.6 | 40.5% | ||
TEAM Defense | TEAM Offense | |||||||||||
Tackle Opportunity | Rush Attempts faced | Drop Backs | Offensive | Rush | Tackle Opps | Rush | Drop | Offensive | Rush Percentage | |||
Faced | Snaps Faced | Percentage | Allowed | Attempts | Backs | Snaps | ||||||
ARIZONA Cardinals | 56.2 | 26.9 | 39.9 | 66.8 | 40.3% | 49.3 | 23.6 | 37.9 | 61.5 | 38.3% | ||
ATLANTA Falcons | 50.7 | 25.9 | 36.0 | 62.7 | 41.8% | 52.6 | 21.2 | 45.1 | 66.3 | 32.0% | ||
BALTIMORE Ravens | 44.0 | 20.9 | 37.1 | 58.8 | 36.0% | 55.4 | 35.1 | 29.6 | 64.6 | 54.3% | ||
BUFFALO Bills | 46.1 | 22.7 | 37.6 | 61.6 | 37.7% | 50.6 | 29.1 | 34.4 | 63.6 | 45.8% | ||
CAROLINA Panthers | 51.9 | 26.0 | 38.2 | 64.2 | 40.5% | 51.4 | 24.4 | 42.1 | 66.5 | 36.7% | ||
CHICAGO Bears | 50.6 | 25.0 | 39.1 | 63.6 | 39.0% | 49.9 | 23.8 | 39.1 | 62.9 | 37.8% | ||
CINCINNATI Bengals | 51.1 | 30.6 | 31.6 | 62.1 | 49.1% | 47.6 | 22.6 | 41.1 | 63.6 | 35.5% | ||
CLEVELAND Browns | 49.1 | 26.4 | 35.1 | 61.5 | 42.9% | 47.8 | 24.9 | 36.6 | 61.6 | 40.5% | ||
DALLAS Cowboys | 49.7 | 24.5 | 37.4 | 61.4 | 39.6% | 52.6 | 27.7 | 38.7 | 66.4 | 41.7% | ||
DENVER Broncos | 51.3 | 26.9 | 35.8 | 61.7 | 42.9% | 46.4 | 24.4 | 34.4 | 58.7 | 41.5% | ||
DETROIT Lions | 52.1 | 26.8 | 39.2 | 66.9 | 40.6% | 50.8 | 25.3 | 39.6 | 64.9 | 38.9% | ||
GREEN BAY Packers | 49.7 | 26.0 | 37.1 | 64.5 | 41.2% | 47.6 | 23.6 | 36.5 | 60.1 | 39.2% | ||
HOUSTON Texans | 50.1 | 24.0 | 39.0 | 62.9 | 38.1% | 52.0 | 26.6 | 36.1 | 62.8 | 42.4% | ||
INDIANAPOLIS Colts | 49.6 | 23.1 | 36.5 | 59.8 | 38.7% | 50.5 | 28.6 | 34.8 | 63.4 | 45.1% | ||
JACKSONVILLE Jaguars | 49.7 | 26.3 | 35.0 | 62.2 | 42.9% | 49.3 | 23.8 | 39.6 | 63.4 | 37.5% | ||
KANSAS CITY Chiefs | 50.1 | 25.9 | 38.6 | 65.1 | 40.1% | 48.2 | 22.1 | 38.7 | 60.9 | 36.4% | ||
LOS ANGELES Chargers | 48.6 | 26.2 | 31.1 | 57.5 | 45.7% | 48.9 | 22.7 | 38.7 | 61.4 | 37.0% | ||
LOS ANGELES Rams | 52.9 | 28.1 | 38.2 | 66.5 | 42.3% | 49.6 | 23.8 | 40.1 | 63.9 | 37.2% | ||
MIAMI Dolphins | 52.4 | 30.1 | 34.1 | 64.2 | 46.8% | 46.6 | 20.6 | 40.9 | 61.5 | 33.4% | ||
MINNESOTA Vikings | 51.4 | 24.1 | 40.4 | 65.1 | 37.4% | 52.5 | 30.1 | 31.1 | 61.2 | 49.1% | ||
NEW ENGLAND Patriots | 43.6 | 22.1 | 36.2 | 58.8 | 37.9% | 52.4 | 26.4 | 41.8 | 68.2 | 38.7% | ||
NEW ORLEANS Saints | 48.0 | 21.1 | 41.1 | 61.6 | 34.0% | 51.5 | 23.9 | 37.6 | 61.5 | 38.8% | ||
NEW YORK Giants | 53.1 | 28.1 | 36.4 | 64.5 | 43.6% | 47.7 | 22.1 | 39.7 | 61.9 | 35.8% | ||
NEW YORK Jets | 50.1 | 25.3 | 38.4 | 64.0 | 39.7% | 46.2 | 22.5 | 36.2 | 58.7 | 38.3% | ||
OAKLAND Raiders | 48.0 | 25.0 | 34.9 | 59.8 | 41.8% | 51.1 | 27.1 | 33.6 | 60.7 | 44.6% | ||
PHILADELPHIA Eagles | 45.7 | 22.1 | 36.9 | 59.9 | 37.5% | 54.0 | 27.4 | 40.6 | 68.0 | 40.3% | ||
PITTSBURGH Steelers | 51.1 | 27.1 | 36.9 | 65.1 | 42.3% | 45.8 | 23.9 | 33.9 | 57.7 | 41.3% | ||
SAN FRANCISCO 49ers | 47.0 | 24.6 | 34.3 | 58.4 | 41.8% | 54.2 | 31.0 | 32.6 | 63.6 | 48.7% | ||
SEATTLE Seahawks | 49.4 | 22.7 | 40.9 | 63.1 | 35.7% | 54.1 | 29.7 | 34.9 | 64.6 | 46.0% | ||
TAMPA BAY Buccaneers | 49.4 | 21.1 | 44.1 | 63.9 | 32.4% | 52.8 | 25.1 | 42.9 | 68.1 | 36.9% | ||
TENNESSEE Titans | 52.2 | 25.6 | 39.9 | 64.5 | 39.1% | 48.7 | 26.1 | 32.2 | 58.3 | 44.7% | ||
WASHINGTON Redskins | 55.8 | 29.9 | 36.2 | 65.6 | 45.2% | 55.8 | 21.9 | 32.0 | 53.9 | 40.6% | ||
Strong Matchup | ||||||||||||
Neutral | ||||||||||||
Weak Matchup |
Tackle Match-ups to Exploit
Miami defenders at New England
Stadium TVO rank: 1st (1.268)
No stadium is better for tackle opportunity being turned into high-value tackles than New England’s, so any time they play at home we should pay attention as IDP owners. The Patriots will play all their starters as there is a slim chance of the Chiefs overtaking them for the number two seed. Despite their struggles, New England’s offense has allowed 52.4 tackle opportunities allowed per game and 68.2 offensive snaps per game. Both numbers bode well for a ball-control offensive game plan to make Miami’s defenders very appealing.
And indeed, the Dolphins defense has, unsurprisingly, spent an inordinate amount of time on the field this season, averaging 52.4 tackle opportunities per game. Not only that, but they have seen 30.1 rushing attempts per game coming their way. This is likely to be a short game dominated by the Patriots – Vegas has them as 16-point favorites – but the Dolphins defenders are in a perfect spot to rack up the tackles.
Key stat: The Patriots offense has averaged 43.9 solo tackles allowed, a mark unmatched by any other team. That number goes up to 47.8 at home.
San Francisco and Seattle defenders
Stadium TVO rank: 5th (1.224)
One of the top TVO stadiums hosts one of the games of the season on Sunday night as two red-hot offenses face two not-so-hot defenses. This game, besides being a must-watch affair, has significant appeal for IDP purposes. Both San Francisco (54.2) and Seattle (54.1) provide more than enough tackle opportunities to keep each other viable, while both teams are among the most run-heavy in the league at 48.7% and 46%, respectively.
Vegas has this game as a 47 over/under with the 49ers favored by just three points, so this should be a back and forth clash with neither team getting far enough ahead for the other to abandon the run. Even if that happened, the chances are both offenses will stick with the ground game. This is the perfect storm for tackle production and should be heavily targeted by IDP owners.
Key stat: The 49ers and Seahawks offenses average 31 and 29.7 rushing attempts per game, respectively. Both are above the league average.
Tackle Match-ups to Avoid
Detroit and Green Bay defenders
Stadium TVO rank: 32nd (1.063)
No surprises here, but the David Blough-led Lions shouldn’t be relied upon to create tackle opportunities in bunches. At times they have been viable, averaging 50.8 tackle opportunities allowed over the season, but it has been up and down. And that is not something IDP owners should be relying on in this crucial week. Ford Field is the worst stadium in the league for TVO factor, so it is to be avoided at all costs.
Yes, even with the Packers offense on the other side. The Green Bay offense hasn’t been lighting the league on fire, averaging just 47.6 tackle opportunities allowed per game and just 60.1 offensive snaps. This is a game the Packers should easily take care of business, so benching Aaron Rodgers isn’t out of the question. The Lions defenders may have some appeal as flier options if the game stays close, but we can’t rely on that. Fade this one.
Key stat: The Lions’ rush percentage – the number of plays that are runs compared to passes – stands at just 38.9%, lower than the league average of 40.5%.
Atlanta and Tampa Bay defenders
Stadium TVO rank: 27th (1.098)
With neither offense particularly willing nor able to run the football with consistency, instantly this becomes a less enticing game for tackle opportunity. Add in the fact that Raymond James Stadium ranks 27th in TVO factor and it presents as a game to fade this week. Atlanta’s offense has been a good provider of tackle opportunity (52.6 per game) but they have run the ball on just 32% of their plays, almost 10% lower than the league average.
The Bucs defense has been stout against the run, so that avenue will be unavailable to the Falcons on Sunday. It will fall to Matt Ryan to carve up a defense that has faced the most pass attempts in the league (41.5 per game). The unattractive TVO really takes the shine off a match-up that, were it held somewhere else, would be a great spot for production. It is worth rolling the dice, but better to fade this one.
Key stat: The Falcons average just 21.2 rushing attempts per game, while the Bucs average 25.1. Neither is conducive to tackle opportunity.
Best of luck with Week 17 and make sure to check back next season for more match-up analysis.
If you have any further questions or tricky line-up decisions you need advice with, please drop me a line at larkin@footballguys.com, or if you prefer you can tweet me @davlar87.