Rookie tight ends are worthless in fantasy football. It's an unwritten rule and one that fantasy writers have committed to memory.
The best in any craft learn the rules and then figure out the best way to break them. This year, I rated T.J. Hockeson and Irv Smith, Jr. as talents capable of instant production in the 2019 Rookie Scouting Portfolio. Despite inconsistent production in September, both rookies are worth a roster spot and possess excellent upside potential.
I'm going to show you why.
Learning the nature of the rule we're breaking
We dissuade fantasy players from relying on rookie tight ends because it's one of the most difficult positions in football at the pro level. At the college level, most tight ends are either a small offensive lineman or a big wide receiver but rarely both.
Even if a prospect has both skill sets, the jump from the college game to the NFL is a massive challenge because he is learning the refined details of two positions and each position requires several different alignments based on the play call. Line play and wide receiver play also require a lot of adjustments to coverage or pre-snap alignments.
They have at least twice the mental, physical, and technical skills to develop against significantly better opponents than several positions on the football field. The jump in their opponents' athletic ability is often enough to have low expectations for rookie tight ends.
However, we have exceptions to the rule that have included Mike Ditka, Keith Jackson, Jeremy Shockey, Rob Gronkowski, Aaron Hernandez, Hunter Henry, and Eric Green. The key to determining if we should take a chance on breaking the rule of avoiding rookie tight ends is to examine the shared factors that successful rookies shared.
- YAC: Ditka, Shockey, Gronkowski, Hernandez, and Jackson were all skill after the catch.
- Blocking Prowess: Ditka, Gronkowski, Hernandez and Eric Green were at least average as blockers to begin their careers.
- Vertical Skill: All of these candidates could stretch the seam.
- Rebounding: Jackson, Shockey, Gronkowski, Hernandez, and Green excelled in this area.
- Route Running: All of these candidates could work over the middle and beat mand and zone coverage with technical guile.
- Surrounding Talent: Only Ditka and Green lacked strong surrounding talent at quarterback and wide receiver.
- Shared Playing Time: Only Ditka and Keith Jackson didn't split playing time or work in frequent two tight end sets.
These rookie performers were elite athletes for their position and if they weren't the solo act at the position for their teams, they benefitted from schemes that used a lot of two-tight end sets or essentially let them play wide receiver.
Hockenson and Smith share most of these factors and their value should only trend upward as the season progresses.
weigh the process ahead of the results with T.J. Hockenson
After a great start against the Cardinals, Hockenson's fantasy productivity vanished for the past two weeks. Do not be discouraged by the box score. Do not listen to anyone trying to tell you that he's been used primarily as a blocker.
Sunday's game against the Eagles could have easily been a three-touchdown performance. Although he dropped two of the three targets, Hockenson routinely got open with excellent route running that displayed his quickness, the techniques to turn the hips of his opponents, and excellent positioning at the catch-point against tight coverage.
The small errors he made with each of these plays are correctable and they were either isolated and unusual events and/or strong play from the opponent.
Difficult to cover in red zone due to quicks and release skills. Rookie mistake here but this small error won’t remain an issue. pic.twitter.com/Z9TtcpXg7m
— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) September 25, 2019
Third scoring opportunity dropped. The trust is there to target him and these aren’t wide open plays with egregious concentration issues. pic.twitter.com/DxrYFroJZb
— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) September 25, 2019
Where Hockenson will most likely continue experiencing occasional mental errors will be assignments at OL, but unlikely inhibits target volume. pic.twitter.com/uHyqJfit0K
— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) September 25, 2019
Jessie James is the one who missed the block above but assignment-sound pass pro is one of the more difficult transitions for rookie tight ends, so the point still applies.
The Lions use enough two-tight end sets that the sole onus of pass protection and run blocking at the position isn't on Hockenson. The scheme is designed for Hockenson to pose a consistent threat either as a seam-stretcher, YAC threat in the flat, or play-action target who can run a route from several alignments. An occasional mistake isn't going alter the Lions plan and all three drops were contested plays that will not lead Matthew Stafford to lose confidence in the rookie.
when to break the rule with hockenson
My recommendation is to acquire Hockenson in leagues with at least 25 roster spots or if you have a strong team and a luxury spot available in a 20-man roster format. You want another tight end as your starter until we begin to see a pattern with matchups or the small errors that derail potentially strong performances disappear. I think there's a strong chance Hockenson will have some excellent games down the stretch regardless of matchup because his athletic ability and route running are so strong that the catches will come.
See if Hockenson is available as a buy-low, throw-in or a hastily cut option available in your free agent pool.
Irv Smith will become the Vikings' No.3 WR
Smith's playing time has been growing with each passing week. Even before Chad Beebee got hurt, Smith earned significant time on the field as the Vikings' second tight end, third tight end, slot receiver, and outside receiver.
Although known for his technically-sound work that held up well against SEC defenders, Smith surprised Minnesota this summer with his prowess as a blocker. The Vikings knew he was a good route runner with receiver-like hands and productive skills after the catch, so the addition of run-blocking made having a third wide receiver expendable while making the offense multiple in nature.
Now, Minnesota can switch to 12 personnel (two tight ends), 21 personnel (I-formation with Smith as a fullback), and 11 personnel (Smith as a receiver) based on the personnel of the defense and generate mismatches in favor of Smith, Thielen, or Diggs.
Against the Raiders, Smith displayed prowess in all aspects of the game and did so in such a technically-sound way that I'm confident that his work will often transcend the quality of competition.
Good work on the perimeter by Smith pic.twitter.com/jIhorv6H4s
— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) September 25, 2019
Legit potential outside will allow Vikings to use Thielen inside more often than they have this year. pic.twitter.com/fhOtrqHSse
— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) September 25, 2019
Good tandem work on DE. Smith holds his own pic.twitter.com/C6Egp0u6C1
— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) September 25, 2019
Fluid ball carrier who was a YAC guy at Bama pic.twitter.com/KKfRJ6PlqG
— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) September 25, 2019
Smith breaks two rules with tight end play: 1) He's a rookie. 2) He's not the official starter. However, as I mentioned in the profiling of the most productive rookie tight ends, a lot of them were the No.2 option on the depth chart in a multiple offense (Patriots), called upon in predictable situations (Hunter Henry and Rob Gronkowski in the red zone), or used frequently as a wide receiver (Shockey and Hernandez).
Smith potentially qualifies as a rule-breaker with high upside and the indications were becoming apparent during Week 3's game of the preseason.
When to break the rules with Smith
As is the case with Hockenson, Smith shouldn't be acquired as your sole tight end for your roster. Preferably, you consider him as a luxury addition off waivers as a second tight end who you can hold until there's a confirmable trend of usage and production.
I'd be more bullish about acquiring Hockenson if truly in need of a tight end and need to play with a higher tolerance for risk. Smith is a good addition for teams that have the roster sizes (25-plus) and/or the luxury of a strong squad to wait-and-see in a PPR format. Hockenson offers upside in standard and PPR formats whereas Smith is a better fit for PPR because his red-zone usage won't be as frequent.
If you're concerned about Kirk Cousins's play, understand that I have been among the lowest on Cousins all summer. Even so, I believe he'll earn enough quality starts that Smith is worth the investment under the conditions described above.
Cousins is earning more time in the pocket than most quarterbacks in the league. As he gains greater comfort with this new offense, his production should climb and Smith's will climb with it.
