There’s a lotta ins, lotta outs, lotta what-have-yous to projecting the 2019 season for fantasy drafts. And, uh, lotta strands to keep in my head. Lotta strands in old Bloomer's head. Let’s lay them out.
AFC East
Buffalo Bills
This offensive line has been hit harder by injuries than any unit in the league and they needed the time this summer to find a combination of five players and slot that works and gelled more than any other line in the league. Welp. Zay Jones and Robert Foster are clearly behind John Brown and Cole Beasley in the pecking order, but the line woes may just turn Allen back into a rushing yards monster and ill-advised deep ball waiting to happen on broken plays. Devin Singletary has the look of a player who will get to lead this backfield by the end of the year (update: or by Week 1), I’m just not sure what that will be worth unless the line comes together during the season.
Reach a round or two for: John Brown
Target around the same time as Justice Hill goes off of the board: Devin Singletary
Streamer’s delight: Josh Allen to open vs NYJ NYG CIN
Miami Dolphins
This team is going to be 2018 Cardinals bad. You were warned. There’s no reason to dabble in a two or three-headed backfield in an offense this bad. It doesn’t matter who is starting at quarterback. Kenny Stills would be better off for fantasy if he was released. Albert Wilson and Jakeem Grant might not be 100% yet. Baltimore, New England, Dallas, and the Chargers to open sounds like four blowout losses.
Avoid: Everyone
New England Patriots
Josh Gordon could be one of the hits of 2019 drafts if he stays on the field and ruin the ceiling of everyone else in this passing game in the process. He’s the Patriot pass-catcher (including James White) to target in the mid-rounds. Gordon was a focal point when Rob Gronkowski was out last year and he obviously riffs well with Tom Brady. Sony Michel looks even better than last year and he should be more involved in the passing game. Damien Harris looks good but needs a Michel injury to matter. Rex Burkhead’s fate will affect the final level of Michel, White and Harris’s weekly ceiling - maybe Bill O’Brien will throw them a late-round pick for him. Tom Brady is a big winner from Gordon’s return, as is Michel, as this offense will be on the field more and for longer drives, with a higher percentage of touchdowns at the end of them. This team could rumble to a 7-0 start if they beat the Steelers at home to open because the next six are Miami, Buffalo, Jets, Washington, Giants, Jets. Sony Michel could have 800 rushing yards and 10 scores by Week 8.
Consider at ADP: Josh Gordon, Damien Harris, Sony Michel, Tom Brady
Avoid at ADP unless it comes down greatly: Julian Edelman, James White
New York Jets
After all of the ups and downs of the first year of the Gase era, the feeling is overall optimism about this offense will be compared to last year, and Sam Darnold is probably enough reason why. Ryan Kalil’s un-retirement was a boon, but he, Brian Winters, and Kelechi Osemele haven’t had nearly enough time to get on the same page because of injuries to the guards. Ed Oliver is up first, followed by Cleveland, New England, and then Philadelphia, Dallas, New England, and Jacksonville after a Week 4 bye. The offensive line will be tested and there could be a buy-low window for some of the key players here. Jamison Crowder seems to be a focal point, and if you were buying into a Robby Anderson contract year breakout, nothing that has happened this summer should discourage you.
Target at ADP: Jamison Crowder
Consider at ADP: Robby Anderson
Avoid at ADP: Le’Veon Bell
AFC South
Houston Texans
Duke Johnson Jr is good at football, and Deshaun Watson makes the players around him better for fantasy purposes. They aren’t going to add anyone of great import. Johnson could be an obvious big mid-round hit right in front of our faces. He’s a perfect RB2 in PPR if you wait to take yours. Keke Coutee still has a lot of potential, but who knows when he’ll be 100%. He’s only a late-round stash now, and his injury helps the case for Will Fuller, but not for Jordan Thomas, who has fallen behind Darren Fells. Damarea Crockett may not make the team if they value Karan Higdon’s special teams prowess over Crockett’s superior burst, but if he does, file the name away in dynasty leagues. I can’t take Watson at ADP because I like the quarterbacks going after him just as much and the line injects too much injury risk, but I’m not as afraid of that injury risk when evaluating other pieces of this offense for fantasy drafts. Maybe I should be. New Orleans, Jacksonville, Chargers, Carolina has some scary pass rushers coming after Watson to open the year.
Target at ADP: Keke Coutee, Duke Johnson Jr (assuming ADP doesn’t skyrocket)
Consider at ADP: Will Fuller, DeAndre Hopkins
Avoid at ADP: Deshaun Watson
Indianapolis Colts
My first reaction, like most others, was to lower expectations for this offense. Many pointed out Frank Reich’s offense will be better than the 2017 version Brissett played in, Brissett is better, and the surroundings are ideal. He could be a solid streamer and support more value than expected in this offense -- especially for T.Y. Hilton, after the Brissett-to-Hilton hook-up was one of the stories of camp. Marlon Mack is a tougher call with more crowded boxes, and the tight ends and secondary receivers aren’t going to be trustworthy with a much smaller passing pie to divide up. The hit to the offense is still material, although I’m open to Brissett surprising. Chargers, Tennessee, Atlanta, Oakland, Kansas City to open isn’t too daunting and might even be beneficial.
Target at ADP: T.Y. Hilton, assuming he is falling to 5th/6th
Consider at ADP: Marlon Mack, assuming he is falling to 5th/6th
Avoid at ADP: Devin Funchess, Eric Ebron, Jack Doyle
Spend 25-50% on 2QB/Superflex waiver wire: Jacoby Brissett
Jacksonville Jaguars
Yawn. Sure, Dede Westbrook could be a win at ADP because he’ll be the clear #1 and maybe even approach 80-100 catches. Leonard Fournette could be a win at ADP if he plays 15-16 games because he could catch 60-70 balls. It’s still difficult to see this offense producing a big overachiever. Kansas City and Oakland to open are the main reasons to consider the big pieces of this offense in drafts, but I’m unlikely to pull the trigger.
Consider at ADP: Leonard Fournette, Dede Westbrook
Tennessee Titans
Double yawn. This offense and Marcus Mariota are going to underwhelm again if the summer is any indication. We shouldn’t project things to reverse course dramatically without big enough changes to the considerations to justify it. A.J. Brown and Adam Humphries aren’t going to turn Mariota into a different player, and not having Taylor Lewan to open the season won’t help matters. Betting on players like Corey Davis and Derrick Henry is betting on this offense to consistently execute. The opening schedule of Cleveland, Indianapolis, Jacksonville, Atlanta to open at least gives Henry a chance to step on the Jaguars faces again - if this mysterious calf injury isn’t affecting him during the season.
Avoid at ADP: Derrick Henry, Corey Davis, Delanie Walker
AFC North
Baltimore Ravens
This offense feels exciting to invest in with a running game that we know will be productive and a passing game that has generated buzz all offseason. Mark Ingram could be a safe RB2 if he gets Gus Edwards' workload from last year, but is that assured with Justice Hill showing out in the preseason and Edwards still able to put the lean on the defense? I want a piece of this running game, but it’s Hill, not Ingram. Kenneth Dixon is looking like a cut. Hopefully, he lands in Houston. Miles Boykin is the wide receiver to target, although he might draw a lot of Xavien Howard Week 1. Don’t fret, Arizona and Kansas City are up next. Mark Andrews is still a player I am drawn to, but it requires some assumption of rational coaching to come through. He’s clearly the best threat in the passing game at tight end, but the team seems to want to use him as a part-time player. His progress + Lamar Jackson’s efficiency/comfort targeting him makes me want to see what Andrews can do as part of a late-round tight end plan against the Miami linebackers Week 1. Lamar Jackson is an obvious late-round quarterback and Plan A against that schedule
Target at ADP: Lamar Jackson, Justice Hill, Miles Boykin, Mark Andrews
Sell High Early: Mark Ingram
Waiver Wire Watch List: Marquise Brown
Cincinnati Bengals
This offensive line is crumbling, but the team does still have the new coach bounce. Joe Mixon was balling out with an offense that was even worse in December, so I won’t talk anyone out of targeting him at ADP, although I prefer other targets in that range. Rodney Anderson looked GOOD and immediately made me regret not targeting him in dynasty drafts, although the path to playing time is still murky. Tyler Boyd was actually worse without A.J. Green last year, but he said the team is featuring him this year as the first read more often. John Ross isn’t doing anything to endear himself to the new staff, UDFA Damion Willis will start Week 1 and Auden Tate has been impressing again. I love A.J. Green the player, but I don’t like uncertainty and who knows when he will be full speed again. Drafting him is trusting the Bengals staff. I like too many other targets in the 5th-6th to take him. Tyler Eifert is a fine tight end to roll out there Week 1 against Seattle with Green sidelined. San Francisco isn’t a tough Week 2 matchup, so this offense could get off to a good start but then grind to a halt against the Bills and Steelers on the road.
Consider at ADP: Joe Mixon, Tyler Boyd, Tyler Eifert
Avoid at ADP: A.J. Green
Cleveland Browns
Eric Stoner and a few others have sounded the alarm bell about this offensive line, and if the Browns underachieve on offense despite high expectations that will be why. It is causing me to be less sure about Nick Chubb over James Conner and Odell Beckham over JuJu/Evans in the late first/early second. Jarvis Landry might benefit from an offense that has to get the ball out faster, and Rashard Higgins is being underestimated because of his superior chemistry with Baker Mayfield. If the line is an issue, David Njoku staying in to block more is a real possibility. Tennessee, Jets, and Rams give them some vulnerable corners over the top to open, but will there be time to look deep?
Target at ADP: Rashard Higgins
Consider at ADP: Baker Mayfield, Nick Chubb, Odell Beckham, Jarvis Landry, David Njoku
Pittsburgh Steelers
I feel better about this offense every time I look at it. The receivers look good, James Conner looks great, the line might be even better. JuJu Smith-Schuster finishing #1 overall among receivers isn’t outlandish. The offense should run through these two, so while James Washington and Vance McDonald should have some peak games, they might not be very consistent. Jaylen Samuels should mix in more, but not enough to materially affect Conner’s weekly and season-long ceiling. Roethlisberger is cheap and easy low-hanging fruit at quarterback, but I’m not targeting him over Lamar Jackson.
Target at ADP: James Conner, JuJu Smith-Schuster
Consider at ADP: Ben Roethlisberger
Avoid at ADP: Jaylen Samuels (target a rookie back near ADP instead), Vance McDonald (go earlier or later at tight end)
AFC West
Denver Broncos
1.5 Yawns. The Mike Munchak offensive line should be better, Joe Flacco is actually an improvement over what they’ve had at quarterback lately, and Rich Scangarello is probably an upgrade at offensive coordinator. But this is still a bottom half of the league offense. Why trifle with an offense that is not going to overachieve in a material way? The one possible exception is Emmanuel Sanders, who looks great and Flacco has a history of riffing right away with reliable veteran receivers and producing 1000-yard seasons.
Consider at ADP: Emmanuel Sanders
Avoid at ADP: Courtland Sutton, Phillip Lindsay, Royce Freeman
Kansas City Chiefs
Get as many Chiefs as you can get on your roster. The Mahomes/Kelce stack isn’t crazy, although eschewing Kelce early to see if there’s value on Howard or Engram later is a worthy strategy. Two Chiefs in your first three picks with Damien Williams as one is solid. Darwin Thompson’s emergence as a clearer backup (for fantasy at least) makes Williams a safer investment because a 3rd/10th can lock up this backfield. If it’s a full-blown RBBC both should be startable as RB2/Flex plays. Sammy Watkins is as healthy as he’s been in a while and appears to be an easy investment to talk yourself into at ADP. Don’t forget Demarcus Robinson and Mecole Hardman. Hardman is worth a late-round pick to see if he pops right away, and Robinson is a name to file away if Watkins goes down or there’s anything to the Hill trade rumors. This offense should be even more invigorating to watch as a fantasy player this year.
Consider at ADP: Patrick Mahomes II, Tyreek Hill, Damien Williams, Travis Kelce
Target at ADP: Sammy Watkins, Darwin Thompson, Mecole Hardman
Waiver Wire Watch List: Demarcus Robinson
Los Angeles Chargers
I’m one of the few fading this offense. Philip Rivers is the least attractive quarterback in his tier with Russell Okung’s return still uncertain. Keenan Allen has already broken the injury seal, and the ADP of Hunter Henry and Mike Williams assumes breakouts when it will be impossible unless the passing volume goes back to 2018 levels - and that’s before factoring in a possible efficiency drop if the offensive line play is weak. Austin Ekeler is attractive as an RB2 with the Melvin Gordon situation still at an impasse. I’m not 100% convinced we see Gordon this year, I’m avoiding at ADP unless he drops more. Preseason usage points to Ekeler as a clear RB1 on this team, while some expect Justin Jackson get nearly half of the work. Jackson and Ekeler are both cheap enough to draft at ADP and see what happens. Remember, Ekeler was actually more productive with Gordon in the lineup last year. Colts, Lions, Texans to open will feature some big tests for that offensive line.
Consider at ADP: Austin Ekeler, Justin Jackson
Avoid at ADP: Hunter Henry, Mike Williams, Philip Rivers.
Oakland Raiders
Josh Jacobs is going to get all of the work he can handle, and he’s worth the pick in the late third now. Probably over Antonio Brown who has just created too much chaos and confusion for me to trust him with a premium pick in my drafts. Darren Waller and Hunter Renfrow will also be high percentage targets, so I can’t assume that Derek Carr will target Brown the way Ben Roethlisberger did. Losing Gabe Jackson and having Richie Incognito suspended for two games to start the season isn’t a great look with Denver and Kansas City to open.
Consider at ADP: Josh Jacobs, Darren Waller
Avoid at ADP: Antonio Brown
Waiver Wire Watch List: Hunter Renfrow
