We're approaching the stretch run of fantasy football's regular season. If your teams have been wildly successful, it's time to plan ahead for the playoffs. If your teams are still struggling, you'll need desperate measures in order to make every week count.
With this in mind, let's examine what we think about these topics as we head into Week 9
Let's roll...
Running Back Matters
Matt Waldman: Pick two topics from the list for discussion.
- Derrius Guice-Adrian Peterson-Chris Thompson: Peterson is still playing well and is the 19th-ranked PPR RB since Week 6; Guice is practicing with the team and scheduled to return Week 11; Thompson is expected back Week 9. Who has the most re-draft value and do any of these players have starter value in dynasty leagues?
- Kenyan Drake-David Johnson-Chase Edmonds: Arizona acquired Drake this week, Chase Edmonds is out multiple weeks, and David Johnson is still not practicing early in Week 9. Since Week 5, Edmonds has been the No.8 PPR RB and Johnson the 21st-ranked PPR option. How are you valuing Drake in re-draft leagues moving forward? Does Drake have dynasty value considering the depth chart?
- Aaron Jones-Jamaal Williams: Aaron Jones has been the No.1 fantasy RB in standard and PPR leagues since Week 5. Williams has been 15th in standard and 17th in PPR during the same span. Will this tandem continue having strong re-draft value or is it a temporary arrangement with Davante Adams out?
- Devonta Freeman: Freeman is the No.12 PPR RB thus far. Are you trusting him as an RB2 with RB1 upside? How should you approach his value if you have him or someone is selling him?
- Royce Freeman-Phillip Lindsay: Lindsay has been the 13th-ranked PPR RB since Week 5 and Freeman the 19th. Whom do you prefer in dynasty scenarios?
Who makes your list of notables?
Jason Wood: Things are grim in Washington, as the team already seems to be playing for next year. Before Derrius Guice got hurt, Peterson was inactive, and that's in spite of playing well in Guice's absence last year. So if Guice is truly 100% down the stretch, I suspect the team will give him yet another chance to prove he's a key piece to their rebuilding project. If not now, when? The team should be evaluating all assets (players, coaches, facilities, trainers) over the final two months, and Guice is one of the few unproven high-upside pieces on the roster.
Aaron Jones is a far better receiver than any of us realized; he looks capable of playing slot receiver -- if he weren't also a highly-effective running back in conventional formations. I was lukewarm on Jones coming into the season because of durability fears, but so far, so good. In the current NFL landscape, so few running backs are weekly difference makers, it's impossible not to be excited by Jones if you have him. Williams is a boom-or-bust option, particularly when the receiving corps returns to full strength. But any running back capable of 10+ PPR points in a week is valuable these days, so I wouldn't be averse to using Williams as an RB3/Flex option in most league formats, particularly during the bye week gauntlet.
Mark Schofield: We often think about offenses and organizations trying to assess what they have in the quarterback room as teams look ahead to the next draft season. For Washington, almost everything should be on the table. At the top of that list is Derrius Guice. The organization needs to figure out what they have in him, meaning we should get a good look at him down the stretch. If he performs well, he will have the best value in redraft leagues out of these three and is the only one I'm looking at—provided he holds up down the stretch—as a true dynasty asset.
It is hard to trust Freeman at this point, despite the production. Atlanta has a very tough schedule remaining with games against San Francisco, New Orleans (twice), Carolina (twice) and Jacksonville. Their easiest two games are both against Tampa Bay, but the Buccaneers are allowing just 11.8 fantasy points per game to the running back position and are allowing just 68.6 rushing yards per game to opposing offenses. Between tough run defenses and the potential for some RB-unfriendly game scripts, Freeman might be worth selling if you can.
Andy Hicks: It is very clear where Kenyan Drake has been rated by two separate coaching groups in Miami, a committee back. Arizona doesn’t offer much more than Miami did, but at least he had the advantage of knowing the playbook. Behind a poor offensive line, on short notice and facing the 49ers twice in the next three weeks, good luck. Apart from being unable to run the ball consistently, Arizona is often playing from behind. Drake may have some chance if he gets to grips with the pass blocking as his receiving skills are above league average. For the rest of the year, Drake holds a minimal appeal in redrafts and maybe even less in Dynasty. He has yet to find a coaching group that figures out how to utilize his skillset and trust him. Next year he likely to be on another side, so if the situation is good, maybe he has a future.
I’m another one who was highly doubtful that Aaron Jones would be much this season and as a runner, he has been little above average. Where he has been excellent is in making normal running back catches, but very difficult ones as well. The biggest bonus of all though is the touchdowns, leading the league with 11 so far this season. The Packers have a relatively good schedule for Jones to continue his strong RB1 form. Jamaal Williams, on the other hand, is of flex benefit only. Williams is taking advantage of being in a good situation, rather than having the ability to eke out gains. If the Packers are dominating, then Williams will have more appeal, but otherwise, Jones is the main guy here.
Sean Seattle: Drake has spent his entire career on a very poor Miami team and has had all the time in the world to show us what he is capable of. Chase Edmonds has shown and ability to run the ball with speed and power and catch the ball out of the backfield. Drake will get a fair shake in Arizona with Johnson still hurting and Edmonds out, but he will fall on that depth chart as both come back from injury. He has a similar skill set but does not do it as well as either running back. David Johnson may be on his way out of Arizona, but it is Edmonds that will take over and not Drake.
For those of us who trusted Freeman, it has been a very difficult season. He has seen his share of garbage time receptions but has let us down with late fumbles and seen goal-line work go to Ito Smith. The Falcons have been abysmal this year and nothing seems to be going right. Trust Freeman as a flex play in a PPR league with a string of tough matchups ahead. His value will come from catching the ball out of the backfield and that is about it for the rest of the season. Move on if you have other options.
Mark Wimer: Here I think the answer is - if it ain't broke, don't fix it! Aaron Jones has been very good and Jamaal Williams is a nice compliment. We may see more snaps and yardage/scoring once Adams returns to the fold, making the Packers even more explosive, but I don't see a return by Adams as a negative for the running backs. It may help loosen up the opposing defenses at the line of scrimmage even further!
Freeman hasn't been as strong as many hoped to start the season, but Atlanta still has Carolina and Tampa Bay twice each during the second half of the season (those all could be very high-scoring shootouts) and also they usually play New Orleans very tough (two games against the Saints to come, too). As a suffering Atlanta fan this year, I can tell you that this defense can't stop any of the other 31 NFL teams, so Freeman and company will be scrambling from behind a lot (which should keep the passes flowing to Freeman for the rest of the season).
I think garbage time will be good for Freeman in the second half of the season. I'm holding him in the leagues where I've rostered him.
Justin Howe: I don’t see any reason to doubt the Packers’ backs going forward. Adams will eventually return as the clear-cut No. 1 receiver, but it shouldn’t change the offensive landscape too much. Coach Matt LaFleur is a run-game proponent, and he can’t deny how explosive his runners have looked. They’ll continue to see ample opportunity, with plenty of chances to make big impacts in both the passing game and the red zone. The real question mark will hover around the distribution between the two. Jones is among the league’s most dynamic weapons, and he seems to have improved the conditioning and ball-control issues that have plagued him in the past. Williams will continue to serve as a high-upside flex play, especially during the bye weeks, though his volatility will be high.
I still see Freeman has a rock-solid fantasy RB2, though I fully understand selling him (relatively) high. His PPR value is solid, but it’s hard to give him an RB1 ceiling without the dependable rushing outlook of his peers. Freeman has posted a pair of 88-yard games but hasn’t topped 40 in any of his other six, and his 3.4 per carry is by far a career-low. Things don’t project much to improve much here on the 1-7 Falcons, who are routinely forced into a negative game script and a shootout mode. Freeman catches some passes in those situations but doesn’t make much happen when he does. All told, he makes for an easy sell to RB-desperate league-mates. If I can bring home an upside receiver like Robert Woods or Christian Kirk for him in a package, I’m all over it.
Cutting the Chord: Challenge Edition
Waldman: Chad Parson's Cutting the Cord feature tells fantasy players who they should be dropping. Let's take this up a notch with a bigger challenge: Predict one player player (QB, RB, WR, or TE) who is currently a fantasy starter in a 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE PPR format that Parson will be recommending readers to cut the cord by this time next month.
Howe: Aside from the low-hanging fruit of current QB12 Gardner Minshew, I’ll bring up Jacoby Brissett, who’s right outside the top-12 in some formats. Brissett has done great thus far to maximize his situation, but simply doesn’t see the consistent volume to stay at these “heights.” Apart from matchups with the Raiders, Falcons, and Texans, he’s averaged just 172 yards and 1.3 touchdowns a game. He’s not running much at all, either, which made up most of his QB2 appeal entering the year. There’s a non-zero chance Brissett is droppable by the time the fantasy playoffs begin.
There are a few committee-type backs with tenuous grips on their hefty workloads. Guys like Jordan Howard, Carlos Hyde, and Royce Freeman are two-down grinders with more explosive players around them. Of that group, Hyde is probably the least exciting, but he is the part of the offense that’s humming along best right now. As the Eagles continue to struggle for offensive efficiency, Howard makes some sense as a faller. Remember: last year, power specialist Josh Adams averaged 5.1 yards per rush and 66 a game from Weeks 8-13, only for Doug Pederson to unceremoniously dump him immediately after.
Larry Fitzgerald continues to underwhelm for fantasy purposes, averaging just 38 yards (with a single touchdown) since Week 3. With Christian Kirk back healthy and more explosive, I expect Fitzgerald to lose the only luster he has left—PPR volume—down the stretch. In my eyes, he’s only a volume-based, low-impact flex play going forward, and I think Chad will see him the same.
Darren Fells keeps catching short touchdowns, but that likely won’t last. Even if it does, Fells doesn’t boast the volume or playmaking outlooks to ever start, so why keep him around?
Wimer: Gardner Minshew may flame out when Nick Foles is ready to come back in—there will be pressure to play the Super Bowl MVP so Minshew will have a short leash—this could become a situation where both guys get starts in the second half of the season. I would not be comfortable if Minshew were my current starting QB - best be looking for options.
Settle: We have already seen Andy Dalton benched and Gardner Minshew will have to contend with Nick Foles coming back, but I am looking at Cleveland. Baker Mayfield has been abysmal this year and has not been able to put it all together. The Browns have one of the easiest schedules the rest of the way, but they are going to ride Nick Chubb and try and limit the mistakes of Mayfield. There are plenty of quarterback options to stream in standard leagues that will not be as volatile as Mayfield.
There are many of us who took Joe Mixon as our second running back this year and he has done nothing but disappoint. The Bengals are in disarray and are turning to their rookie quarterback after benching Andy Dalton. The rushing attack has not been great even when they were throwing the ball all over the place and Mixon has run into a wall of defenders on almost every carry. IF you have not already moved on, it may already be time to cut the cord on Mixon.
It has been a great start to the season for Terry McLaurin, but the tides are going to be changing in Washington. Dwayne Haskins has stepped in and the previous chemistry from Ohio State has not translated to the NFL. Washington is going to simplify their game plan and try to protect their rookie quarterback in the hopes that he develops. McLaurin has been great running double moves on the outside and running by people, but all of that is going to change as the Washington offense does. It was a nice run, but the touchdowns for McLaurin will dry up and he will lose his value.
Greg Olsen looks to be the name most likely to drop on this list. The tight end position has been one of the most difficult to predict so far this year. Zach Ertz is having a down year and there are many guys only a few points away from jumping into the top 12. The positions have become touchdown-dependent this year outside of the top few and will continue to be hard to predict. Carolina has had almost all of their offense go through McCaffery and Olsen has fallen off after a few good weeks early in the season.
Hicks: It's too easy to say Gardner Minshew and Andy Dalton here. The Bengals have already replaced Dalton and Nick Foles will be coming back for the Jaguars. Looking at the other 10 quarterbacks, the only one I would have concerns about would be a pair of Matthew’s in Ryan and Stafford. Moreso Ryan. It is hardly likely that the Falcons are going to see what they have in Matt Schaub though, so Ryan will start no matter what. As the Falcons are struggling everywhere, but especially on defense, Ryan still should be borderline startable.
At running back, it is hard to throw productive running backs out the window. Maybe if we look from the outside in, we can see who enters the top 24 and work that way. Tevin Coleman and Miles Sanders look like obvious choices, maybe Carlos Hyde, Joe Mixon, and David Montgomery as well. The rest require an injury or a rookie like Devin Singletary to get more touches. The players that are likely to fall out are Latavius Murray as mentioned, but the most obvious to me would be Jordan Howard. If we extrapolate that Sanders comes in with a bigger workload than it stands to reason that Howard sees less work. That is a hard argument to post though as he saw 23 carries in his most recent game. Devonta Freeman, Le’Veon Bell, and Austin Ekeler have terrible yards per run but are making up for it with excellent returns as receivers.
Working outwards in again and there are many wide receivers who could easily ascend into the top group. Odell Beckham Jr JuJu Smith-Schuster, DK Metcalf, etc. Without playing the obvious dropoff in Will Fuller, others that are in precarious positions are Robert Woods, John Brown, Terry McLaurin, Calvin Ridley, Marvin Jones, and Tyler Boyd.
Woods would easily stay in the top group if he was able to reach the endzone and Calvin Ridley is likely to see a lot of garbage time stats so looks safe. Marvin Jones gets the benefit of a four-touchdown game so it is hard to make a case for another one of them in the back half of the season. Terry McLaurin, Tyler Boyd, and John Brown are likely to struggle due to the quarterback play heading their way.
Analyzing the Tight End position is almost a waste of time, as players ranked as low as 29 are only a couple of points a game out of the top 12. A touchdown here of there is enough to propel players like Tyler Higbee, Foster Moreau and Kyle Rudolph up the list significantly. The top seven fantasy tight ends right now, plus Hunter Henry is almost certain to be in the top 12 barring injury. The fact that Henry is in the top 12 after basically only four games is an indictment on the position. Fells, Everett and Olsen are the obvious candidates to drop out.
Schofield: Sure, this is an easy one with the Cincinnati Bengals making the move to Ryan Finley, but in case you missed the news...Andy Dalton. In addition to Dalton, if you have not cut the cord on Jameis Winston yet, what exactly are you waiting for? Similar to what the Bengals are doing, the Buccaneers need to take stock of the rest of their quarterback room before the next draft approaches. Winston likely starts seeing some time on the bench before long.
Tennessee has a tough slate the rest of the way, including against some tough run defenses in New Orleans and the Houston Texans (twice). He has seen more usage than Dion Lewis consistently this season, but the upcoming schedule is not as running back-friendly as the slate Tennessee saw earlier this season.
This one pains me a bit because Allen Robinson has been fascinating to watch and he is still a Top 15 WR in PPR scoring with Mitchell Trubisky throwing to him...
Wood: Believe it or not, Andy Dalton is currently QB12 and Gardner Minshew is QB11. I suspect neither holds onto their current ranking because they won't be starters soon. It makes zero sense for a 0-8 Bengals team with a first-year head coach to keep rolling Dalton out there every week; let's see what Ryan Finley has before the Bengals have figure out their draft plans next year. While Minshew has been a feel-good story, he's been a league-average player and Nick Foles' return is imminent.
It's hard to fathom a league where you'll be dropping any running back that's pushing top-25 value through eight games, although you may not have the confidence in putting them in your lineup regularly. Injuries will ultimately answer this question. The obvious pick is Latavius Murray, who ranks 17th in PPR right now thanks to Alvin Kamara's missed time. Murray was a non-factor before Kamara got hurt.
Similar to running back, I don't think it makes sense to drop any receiver currently in the top-24, but that doesn't mean they'll all be worth putting into your lineups. Will Fuller (WR24) is the obvious choice because he's hurt—again.
Darren Fells splits time in Houston and ranks 8th. Gerald Everett ranks 10th. In other words, it's a barren wasteland at the bottom of the "TE starters" and any of those guys—who are all touchdown dependent—could be worth cutting soon.
Trade Deadline
Waldman: Many fantasy leagues have their trade deadlines this week or next. Name one player you'd identify as either a target to acquire (because he's generally undervalued at the moment) or a player you'd like to sell (because you expect his production to drop off) in redraft leagues. Do not mention any players you specifically broached in the first two questions.
Wood: Tyler Boyd has disappointed along with the entire Bengals roster, but if the Bengals are smart, they'll trade A.J. Green and bench Andy Dalton. Ryan Finley should target his best receiver, which is Boyd. The Bengals have the easiest remaining schedule in terms of wide receiver fantasy points allowed, including a matchup against the Dolphins in Week 16. Trade for him.
Mack's durability remains a concern, and the Colts have a difficult schedule the rest of the way, as it relates to fantasy points allowed to running backs. Get value for Mack while you can, and let someone else worry about him playing the Saints, Jaguars, and Panthers to end the year.
Schofield: Chris Carson would be a player I'd be looking to sell. We are going to dive into scheduling matters in the next question, but looking at who the Seattle Seahawks have left on the schedule, only two of their games are against bottom-half run defenses: Carolina and Arizona. The rest of their games come against teams that are 13th or best against the run (in terms of yards allowed per game) including two against the San Francisco 49ers. Given that, I'd look to move him now before the production starts to drop off.
Hicks: I would be trading for any Cleveland Brown with a pulse you can get. If the Browns had opened with the schedule they have left they should be 7-2 or 8-1. All their remaining hard game(s) are at home against the Bills and Ravens. Baker Mayfield has been awful this year and should be sitting on many waiver wires. Grab him. Jarvis Landry and Odell Beckham may have managers that have had enough, grab them. I doubt you can get the most valuable player in Nick Chubb, but Kareem Hunt should be a player you heavily consider as an alternative.
Settle: It has been a very up and down season for Boyd and there are many owners who are tired of it. The Bengals recently benched Andy Dalton and Ryan Finley is going to try and pump the ball to their best offensive weapon in Boyd. A.J Green should also be coming back at some point and that will limit what defenses can do in coverage against Boyd. The Bengals have one of the easiest schedules remaining in regards to the pass defense and even take on Miami in week 16. Boyd is an undervalued receiver that has a great matchup during Championship week of many fantasy football leagues. Go get Boyd and let the garbage time points from Cincinnati rain down.
Wimer: I would be making offers for Marquez Valdes-Scantling—his owners may be scared off due to the imminent return of Davante Adams, but I think Adams on the field actually opens up the deep-strike opportunities for Valdes-Scantling—he's the type of guy from the WR3/Flex position who can win you fantasy games with his "Boom" weeks..
Howe: One course of action I’m taking is to buy up discounted Rams, specifically Robert Woods and Gerald Everett, who would benefit majorly from a long Brandin Cooks absence. Cooks is in a scary spot with his concussion situation, and if he sits for a while, he’ll vacate Woods is already an every-down player, but he’d draw more attention with Cooks sidelined. Last year, after Cooper Kupp was taken out of the offense, Woods drew 9 targets and produced 60-plus yards in 7 of 9 games. Everett is a less-obvious target, but he’s drawn 8+ targets 3 times alongside Cooks, and he’s already 24 yards shy of setting a new career-high. Both would take on immediate boosts, and if Jared Goff can un-stick his season from the bottom of his shoe, they’d boast high fantasy ceilings.
Scheduling Matters
Matt Waldman: Name a team that has an excellent schedule moving forward and a player it could help for fantasy leagues and a team that has a rough schedule and a player it will hurt.
Howe: Leonard Fournette should benefit from Jacksonville’s schedule down the stretch, cementing him as a fantasy RB1. He’s the ball-control workhorse for an offense that faces the Chargers (26th in fantasy DvP), Raiders (22nd), and Falcons (29th) in Weeks 14-16. Those are thoroughly winnable games for the Jaguars, games in which Fournette could be called on for 25+ touches to both build a lead and grind things out. Healthy and dynamic for the first time as a pro, Fournette should be a fantasy linchpin when the playoffs hit.
On the flip side of things, I’m leery of the Falcons, who face a daunting run of defenses down the stretch. From Weeks Devonta Freeman will take on the smothering run defenses of Carolina and New Orleans twice each, with the league-best Buccaneers sandwiched in-between. Then, in the fantasy playoffs, they’ll face the 49ers and Jaguars. These are mostly funnel defenses that will force the ball into the air, which could boost volume for Matt Ryan, Julio Jones, and company. But it’s hard to project much efficiency against that stretch of defenses, most of whom are also stout against the pass.
Quarterback Justin Fields is only a true sophomore and won’t be eligible for the draft until 2021. By that time, he might challenge Trevor Lawrence for the top spot. Fields is still a bit raw and he holds onto the ball too long at times. However, he seems to improve every week and his tools are off the chart.
Wimer: As I already referenced while discussing Devonta Freeman above, the Falcons have all their divisional games yet to come in the second half of the season, and I can see game scripts where those six games all become track meets. I don't think the Falcons win more than two of those six games, but I do think the offense is good enough (even minus Mohamed Sanu) to score at least 24 points a game in the second half (they had 32, 33, 10, and 20 in their last four losing efforts).
The Chargers' offense looks like they may well crash and burn in the second half of the season. They stand at 3-5, likely out of the AFC playoffs already; key members of the offense may depart next season and have no real motivation to play at the top of their games (Melvin Gordon especially due to his contract squabble with the team this past summer). Put their tough schedule on top of the above factors and I'm not optimistic.
Settle: The Browns have the easiest remaining schedule this season and there is no excuse to not turn this season around. Almost every single player in that offense should see a bump in production as they take on Pittsburgh and Cincinnati twice as well as the Dolphins and the Cardinals. Cleveland should ride Nick Chubb as far as they can and limit some of the damage that Baker Mayfield can do, but there is no reason to believe that Jarvis Landry and Odell Beckham won’t have better days ahead of them against some of the league’s worst secondaries.
It has been a great start for Seattle, but they are about to hit a scheduling buzz saw the rest of the season. Chris Carson is going to have to deal with San Francisco twice, Minnesota, Los Angeles, and Carolina rush defenses that are all in the top 15 in the league. It is going to be tough sledding for Seattle as they fight for a wild card spot with San Francisco having a firm grip on the division. Russell Wilson should still put up good numbers but it is going to be rough for the rushing attack the rest of the way.
Hicks: I’ve just mentioned the Cleveland Browns in the previous answer and I know my peers will talk about them for this question so I will look elsewhere for an excellent schedule. How about the New York Jets? If Sam Darnold gets past Halloween without seeing any more ghosts then he will finish well. Two games against the Dolphins, the 0-8 Bengals, the 1-7 Washington team, the 2-6 Giants, the struggling Steelers, jetlagged Raiders and like the Browns their two “hard” games will be against the Ravens and Bills, this time away. Amazing as it sounds the Jets could still finish 8-8. Maybe Darnold, Le’Veon Bell, Jamison Crowder, Robby Anderson, and whichever tight end sees the field are great pickups.
A team I would not like to be supporting or having fantasy players from is the one Mark Wimer mentioned, the Los Angeles Chargers. Sure they have the Raiders twice, but at least Oakland is a competitive unit. Outside that the Broncos and Jaguars are very strong defenses, despite their overall record and then we have deep playoff contenders in the Chiefs twice, Packers and Vikings. With Philip Rivers and Melvin Gordon likely departing after this season and who knows who else, Keenan Allen and Hunter Henry may be all you can depend on here.
Wood: The Browns have no excuses; they should turn things around in the second half. If they don't, Freddie Kitchens could be polishing up his resume. After an extremely difficult first half, the Browns get to face the Broncos, Steelers (twice), Dolphins, Bengals (twice), and Cardinals in the final two months. Giddy. Up. Baker Mayfield, Odell Beckham, Jarvis Landry, and Nick Chubb (who is already a stud) should all benefit.
Schofield: As Jason said, the team to consider with a favorable schedule going forward is the Cleveland Browns. The toughest defenses they face down the stretch are the Buffalo Bills and the Baltimore Ravens, and both of those contests are at home. They get both the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Cincinnati Bengals twice, and when it comes to the Bengals they have allowed opposing passers to post an Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt (ANY/A) of 8.8, which is fourth-most in the league. Baker and company should see better production in the second half.
A team that faces a tough schedule in the second half of the season is the Seattle Seahawks. They get the San Francisco 49ers (one of the league's two toughest defenses) twice, as well as the Minnesota Vikings, the Los Angeles Rams, and the Carolina Panthers. Perhaps games against the Philadelphia Eagles, Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Arizona Cardinals will help, but Russell Wilson might see a dip in his output over the second part of this schedule given the defenses he will face.
