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We're halfway through the fantasy season. If your teams have been wildly successful, it's time to plan ahead for the stretch run. If your teams are struggling, it may be time for desperate measures in order to make every week count.
With this in mind, let's examine what we think about these topics as we head into Week 8.
- Reserve/UFA Running Back Matters
- The Replacements: The Quarterback Edition
- On the Rise or Likely An Anomaly?
- Devy Prospecting
Let's roll...
Reserve/UFA Running Back Matters
Matt Waldman: Pick three backs from this list and discuss their value to you as a fantasy player in redraft or dynasty leagues and how you recommend managers to approach them strategically.
IMPORTANT: It's common that a player who works out with one team often earns a workout with others if he's not signed by the first team, so consider the UFAs mentioned below as possibilities for multiple teams.
Please specify the format(s) where you value them and why as well as how their potential impact may help or hurt other players on a team where they're playing or may land:
- Kareem Hunt, who has been permitted to work out with the Browns two weeks prior to the end of his suspension term.
- Brian Hill, who will back up Devonta Freeman after Ito Smith's concussion.
- C.J. Anderson, who earned a workout with the Raiders the day after Josh Jacobs missed part of the game with a shoulder injury but finished the contest.
- Spencer Ware, who earned a workout with the Cardinals after David Johnson couldn't play in Week 7.
- J.D. McKissic, who, along with Ty Johnson, earned bigger workloads after Kerryon Johnson suffered a knee injury that will cost Johnson multiple weeks.
- Ty Johnson
- Jay Ajayi, who also earned a workout with the Cardinals.
- Mark Walton, who has been one of the most active running backs for the tanking Dolphins in recent weeks.
Who makes your list of notables?
Daniel Simpkins: I don't see Hunt as a competitor to Nick Chubb as some view him but as a complementary option. He is a player who is doing his best to rebuild his career after hitting rock bottom. Consider this year an audition for Hunt. If he does well in his role and shows that he can behave himself during the offseason, other teams will have an interest and he may be able to be a lead back for another club by as early as next year.
Brian Hill is someone that I’ve always thought acquitted himself well when called upon and was deserving of more opportunity. I notice when watching him that he’s good at reading blocks and cutting in the correct direction to maximize his yardage. He’s not half bad as a pass-catcher, either. The fact that Atlanta brought him back after he spent one year in Cincinnati says a lot about what they think of Hill.
He’ll get a shot at committee work with Ito Smith unlikely to play after getting absolutely bulldozed and injured while trying to pass protect. It’s obvious that Hill’s opportunity will not be worth as much on a team that’s sagging and has lost their starting quarterback for a time, but it’s conceivable that Hill will do enough to show this team and others that he’s a quality second option. He’s a restricted free agent this year, so we’ll get an idea of how Atlanta values him when we see his tender offer.
I know it’s en vogue to make Anderson fat jokes, but Anderson is a back that understands that it’s not always athleticism that wins the day. He showed last year with the Rams that his agility and balance was still adequate enough to get the job done and that as long as the line can give him a little daylight, he has the decision-making skills to maximize yardage. If he signed with the Raiders, I would be inclined to hold on to him in both dynasty and redraft formats, especially if I also have Jacobs rostered. That offensive line is good enough and Gruden is determined enough to run often that he would have fantasy value.
Jason Wood: I agree with Daniel, Nick Chubb is too talented to be displaced by Kareem Hunt. On the other hand, Hunt is a talent in his own right and it would behoove the Browns to showcase him a bit to increase his value as a trade candidate. I think there's an excellent chance Kareem Hunt is a starting running back for another team in 2020 and remains a valuable dynasty asset. In redrafts, it all comes down to roster size, but in today's NFL, any backup running back is worth rostering.
While I'm a fan of Kerryon Johnson, he's hurt -- again. We have to wonder if he's ever going to handle a full-time role for more than a few weeks. Ty Johnson gets a chance to elevate his NFL trajectory over the next few weeks. If he's effective, he can carve out a committee role at worst but possibly figure into a starting role somewhere.
Mark Schofield: As many have said, Kareem Hunt is a solid option to consider in a multitude of formats. He will not supplant Nick Chubb as RB1 for Cleveland, but if you look back at how Andy Reid used Hunt while in Kansas City, there is a path to certain fantasy viability for Hunt in the Browns' offense.
I think there will be many packages for Hunt in this offense where they look to get him the football in space as a receiver, and you can even imagine some 20 or 21 personnel packages with both Hunt and Chubb on the field, forcing a defense to decide between staying in its base look or going small.
Schematically he is a solid choice, especially in PPR formats. I would imagine both Odell and Jarvis are going to be fine in terms of their target share, but those 20/21 packages might see the tight ends in Cleveland see less and less of the pie.
The Buffalo Bills are 5-1, and they have one of the better defenses in the game right now. Particularly against the run, where they are holding opponents to just 3.9 yards per carry and under 100 yards per game.
Still, Mark Walton looked very good against that defense last week for the Miami Dolphins. It did not take long, as he gashed the interior of that defense for a 19-yard gain on his first carry. This was a simple counter, but Walton displayed precise footwork, great vision and incredible burst through a crease to get into the second level.
From there he showed great change-of-direction ability to make a defender miss in the open field. There might not be much going right for the Dolphins this season (unless you consider Tanking for Tua to be the correct approach) but they have something in Walton.
Jeff Haseley: Hunt was a strong fantasy contributor in his rookie season with Kansas City. He’s hoping he can find that same level of success with Cleveland, but Nick Chubb is securely in the picture blocking Hunt’s opportunity. I only see Hunt as a viable redraft fantasy option if Chubb were to miss multiple games with an injury – and even then it may take a while to get back up to speed.
As for his dynasty value, Hunt still has good potential value with a chance to be a league-winner if he can earn or receive regular RB1 volume. Right now he does not have that as long as Nick Chubb is on the same team.
It looks like Detroit won't acquire another running back to help fill the void left by Kerryon Johnson. If that’s the case, Ty Johnson becomes an automatic upgrade. J.D. McKissic may have more familiarity with Darrell Bevell’s offense from his time with Seattle, but Johnson has more size and can handle a larger role.
McKissic still may have value, especially in PPR leagues, but this appears to be Johnson’s role to lose. I am not sold on him being a strong consistent fantasy starter, but the volume alone will result in an increase in production. The tea leaves may point to a more robust passing attack, which is something we have seen in the past with a Matthew Stafford-led offense after the primary rusher was shelved with an injury.
Walton has shown some potential in the last few games, but his value only hits redraft lineup status if Kenyan Drake exits Miami before the trade deadline, like some believe he will. Walton can be an effective, versatile running back, but we also need to be wary of Miami’s inability to put up points (10.5 points per game).
The lack of team scoring hurts his potential value, which is a concern. He’s not a league-winning lineup factor but he’s someone who could be used in deep rosters with a chance to see increased production if Drake is traded.
Drew Davenport: I'm not much of a dynasty specialist, so I'll limit my comments to redraft leagues in particular.
I think I would focus first on Walton from this list. I know it's odd to highlight a guy in a limited offense, but he needs to be rostered for a couple of reasons. The first is that his snap counts and opportunities have been rising steadily in the last three games.
It's clear the staff is giving him a chance to play, and he's been proficient with his touches. In PPR leagues he is already putting up 8-10 points a game. If his role continues to expand he can push that up into RB3 territory.
The more important part of this, though, is the possibility that the Dolphins move Kenyan Drake before the trade deadline. If that happens then you have a low RB2 type for byes and injuries. If they somehow hold on to Drake I still think he should be owned in deeper leagues because any RB getting the kind of passing game work he's getting is necessary for the many byes still coming. But if Drake sticks around I'd be looking elsewhere in shallow leagues.
I have similar thoughts on J.D. McKissic as I do for Walton. In deeper leagues, he should be owned just for his passing game work alone. But more importantly, while we are all attempting to predict the outcome of this backfield, the truth is we simply don't know how it will shake out. McKissic is virtually free through FAAB or waivers so he's worth a stash. Even if he doesn't get a huge role, it's bound to expand simply from losing the starter. A 35-40 percent snap share is still something to chase at this point in the year.
The more obvious piece of the backfield is Ty Johnson. I don't pretend to know whether he's going to be a good NFL running back, but in fantasy, we chase the opportunities. Johnson is going to get that shot so he should be a priority on waivers.
Having said that, I urge caution in a couple of regards. Foremost, is the performance of Kerryon Johnson when he was the starter to this point. It wasn't impressive. I don't know that Ty Johnson is the player to break the running game out. The second is that the Lions are bound to continue to stress some kind of committee. Even if Johnson corners 50-60 percent of the snaps I'm not seeing much upside for him. Yes, Ty Johnson should be pursued on waivers, but caution should be exhibited.
Dan Hindery: Of the running backs on this list, Johnson is the most intriguing from a short-term perspective. He should get an opportunity to take on a role similar to the one Kerryon Johnson was playing.
The two big questions for me are (1) whether he will take on Kerryon Johnson’s role from the first two weeks or Kerryon’s more recent role and (2) whether he can play well enough to maintain that role for the rest of the season.
Before C.J. Anderson was cut prior to Week 3, Kerryon Johnson was used more like the head of a committee than as a true workhorse. He played 56 percent of the snaps and handled just over 50 percent of the running back touches.
After Anderson was cut, Kerryon Johnson took on a much larger role. He played 73 percent of the snaps and over 75 percent of the running back touches. It seems the more likely scenario will be that Ty Johnson won’t step into the full workhorse role.
Something like 50-60 percent of the backfield snaps and touches, like Kerryon Johnson, had those first two weeks, seems like the safer projection. This would put him more in a position to handle something like 14-18 touches per game to start out.
As to the second question, if Ty Johnson is talented enough to maintain that type of workload for the next seven or eight weeks, the answers are more difficult. Johnson impressed me with his burst early in his career at Maryland but faded a bit his last couple of seasons.
He is a bit of a tweener in terms of projection: Decent as a pass-catcher but not so talented in that aspect that he would be a top 3rd-down option and decent as a runner but not powerful enough to project as an early-down banger. However, the Lions don’t exactly have great options.
Johnson is solid enough in most aspects and possesses a very good burst. He could prove capable of filling in as the top option for the rest of the season.
McKissic should have some short-term value as a bye-week, fill-in option in PPR leagues. He is a third-down back capable of catching 4-5 passes a week and that alone will give him a little bit of a weekly fantasy floor. A Theo Riddick-type role is likely, which should make him a top-40 running back option in PPR. Nothing to get excited about but when injuries and byes hit, having a 4th or 5th RB capable of giving you 8-10 fantasy points can have some value. He is worth adding in deeper PPR leagues.
Hunt is not a player I am particularly interested in over the short term as anything more than an injury handcuff. In dynasty, I would try to cash in on his name recognition if I could find a trade partner who was more excited about his long-term prospects.
The pie in terms of touches has been surprisingly small this season for the Browns. Looking at the game logs, Cleveland’s backs haven’t combined for more than 31 touches in any game this season. They combined for just 18 touches two weeks ago.
I don’t expect Hunt to steal a significant amount of touches from Nick Chubb. Chubb is the more talented back, so there doesn’t look to be enough touches for Hunt to carry much fantasy relevance. The one area where Hunt might have a slight edge is as a pass-catcher. Chubb is averaging less than 5.0 yards per target this season while Hunt was over 10.0 last season. Even if Hunt does take some targets from Chubb, this isn’t an offense that throws much to the backs (just 5.2 RB receptions per game). It’s hard to see a path to Hunt putting up fantasy numbers barring an injury.
Maurile Tremblay: Johnson and McKissic both have more redraft value than dynasty value, and they both have more value in PPR leagues than in non-PPR leagues. But unlike any of the other running backs on the list, they have decent value right now in any format.
They both have intriguing attributes, and at least one is nearly a sure thing to get a significant number of touches going forward. Ty Johnson is probably first in line. He got about twice as much work as McKissic last week after Kerryon Johnson left the game.
Ty Johnson and J.D. McKissic are similar in that they both have big-play potential, and they're both versatile players who can make an impact running or receiving. Ty Johnson is a rookie with terrific speed but is wholly unproven in the NFL. McKissic has been around a few years and has been extremely efficient so far this season. (On his 15 carries, he's averaged 7.3 yards per attempt, and 20 percent of his rushes have gone for more than ten yards.)
This will most likely be a committee, but either back could break out and establish himself as a decent fantasy option going forward. As I said, Ty Johnson is likely to get the first shot, but both have a shot to be the man.
Walton would be my next pick. The Dolphins are not likely to start scoring a lot of points, but Walton does seem to be separating himself from both Kenyan Drake and Kalen Ballage as the team's lead back.
Walton has much lower upside than Ty Johnson and J.D. McKissic, but at least he seems pretty likely to rack up a decent number of rushing attempts, which makes him a decent candidate to score a touchdown in any given week.
Walton does not have value in small leagues with small rosters—he'll never warrant a start in such leagues. But in deep leagues with multiple flex spots, his expected workload gives him more value as a potential what-the-heck-flex than the others on the list, aside from the two Lions.
The Replacements: The Quarterback Edition
Waldman: Pick two of the quarterbacks from this list of replacement starters and explain their value and the rising/falling/holding steady fantasy values of the surrounding talent you believe are notable for each passer's cause.
- Matt Moore
- Ryan Tannehill
- Ryan Fitzpatrick
- Matt Schaub
Tremblay: Tannehill is rising. He played fairly well early in his career with the Dolphins but regressed after that point and a change of scenery was forced upon him. He steps into a situation with better surrounding talent than he left behind in Miami, and over the course of one partial game and one full game, he looks like a significant upgrade over Marcus Mariota.
Tannehill has historically been a decent quarterback inside the pocket, but terrible if the pocket collapsed on him. Last week against the Chargers, however, he made a number of impressively accurate throws outside the pocket on the run. He's averaged over 10 yards per attempt so far on the season, and while that's not going to be sustainable, there's some reason to be optimistic about his chance to be a decent fantasy QB2. If the pocket maintains its integrity, Tannehill is capable of delivering the ball deep downfield, which should help Corey Davis's and A.J. Brown's fantasy prospects.
Fitzpatrick is a gunslinger with erratic aim so he's holding steady for me as a prospect. He's probably a good fit for the 2019 Dolphins, though, because he can come up big in garbage time, and garbage-time mode could be the Dolphins' base offense. He's not worth rostering except in leagues that start two quarterbacks, but in such leagues, he might have higher weekly upside potential than most other fantasy QB2s. His penchant for taking frequent shots downfield makes him a high-variance fantasy option who is always a threat to outperform projections.
Hindery: Corey Davis had 48 or fewer receiving yards in 10-of-11 games coming into last week. From that perspective, his 6-80-1 receiving line last week in Ryan Tannehill’s first start is more noteworthy and is more of an outlier than it might seem at first glance.
The comparison is apples to oranges due to different offensive systems, supporting casts, and other factors. However, it is notable that Tannehill passed for over 4,000 yards in each of his last two full seasons. Marcus Mariota has never even topped 3,500 passing yards in a season.
Based upon Mariota’s recent play, there really isn’t anywhere to go but up for the Titans pass catchers. Tannehill may provide only a small boost but there is potential for more given how talented the Titans receivers are. Davis and rookie A.J. Brown both have some standout traits, and the potential of Tannehill can help unlock their upside. Give the Titans pass-catchers a slight boost.
Matt Moore may not be in the lineup long based upon recent reports of how fast Patrick Mahomes is trying to come back from injury. Still, we should factor in some short-term downgrades for the Chiefs pass catchers. I actually think Moore is the type of capable backup who can play winning football when surrounded by talent and backed by an elite play caller like Andy Reid.
However, Mahomes is a special talent and there is no chance Moore can completely duplicate what he provides. While all the pass catchers get a little downgrade, it probably hurts guys like Tyreek Hill and Mecole Hardman the most. Mahomes throws arguably the best deep ball in the history of the NFL and the odds of these guys hitting long touchdowns will go down until he is back in the lineup.
Davenport: It's easy to think that Matt Moore is "just a backup" and think the offense will tank with him at the helm. However, he's a good enough quarterback that I believe Andy Reid can coach him up and the skill position players can still be solid producers. I don't believe the offense falls off a cliff.
However, I do believe in these situations that all of the peripheral players take the biggest hits. Guys like Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce will still produce, maybe not at elite levels, but they'll be ok.
Guys like Demarcus Robinson, Mecole Hardman, and Byron Pringle are no longer viable. Unless Moore somehow locks in on a certain route one of these guys is running I think it's safe to say that the pass catchers—outside of Hill and Kelce—are not startable until we see evidence otherwise.
I think Moore himself is a fine addition in Superflex leagues, but I'm not chasing him in redraft. There is too much available for streaming quarterback options to want Moore for the short term in redraft.
Also, note that the next few games are not favorable matchups for Kansas City either. They have Green Bay this week, then the Vikings, Titans, and Chargers before the bye.
I've never been a fan of Ryan Tannehill but I thought his debut was about what you want to see. It energized the offense, he seemed decisive, and while he certainly made some dangerous throws it was nice to see him stick some throws into tight windows.
Corey Davis and A.J. Brown definitely benefited from Tannehill's presence, and it would stand to reason that Tannehill's aggressiveness is going to help both of these guys. I'm not going after Tannehill in anything but the best situations, but I'm optimistic that the offense will continue to be better under his direction.
It's also worth noting that despite some injury concerns, the Chargers defense is no bottom feeder. It was a reasonably tough test for his first start and he did well. I'm buying on the Titan pass catchers.
Haseley: I feel slightly better about Matt Moore as a capable fill-in for the Chiefs after watching him throw a perfect touchdown pass to Tyreek Hill in the second half of last week’s game. Andy Reid was able to squeeze some juice from A.J. Feeley. He should be able to get decent results from Moore. The offense drops off with Moore under center, but he should be good enough to stay afloat and not sink to the bottom.
I give a status of “rising” for Ryan Tannehill here because he was able to get his two best downfield receivers involved in Corey Davis and A.J. Brown. Tannehill topped 300 yards passing in the win over the Chargers, which is a promising sign for things to come. He appears to be in line to start for Tennessee for the foreseeable future. Him turning it up a notch is also a feather in the cap of both Davis and Brown. Both could enter into the flex option territory if Tannehill’s success continues.
Schofield: As Drew said, the Chiefs are going to be okay with Matt Moore taking the snaps for their offense while Patrick Mahomes is out. Reid is a creative play-caller—as indicated earlier—and he will find ways to get players like Hill and Kelce the football. A player that might see some slippage is Mecole Hardman if Reid and the offensive staff turn to some heavier packages and look to get the ground game going a bit.
The Tennessee Titans' offense seemed a bit more dynamic last week with Ryan Tannehill in the lineup replacing an ineffective Marcus Mariota. Tannehill posted the first 300-yard game for a Titans' passer this season, and while it came against a struggling Los Angeles Chargers defense, there is something to be said for how the offense looked on film.
Tannehill is certainly a viable starting option this week, with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers coming to town. Opposing passers have fared well against Tampa Bay, posting a collective ANY/A of 6.9. You might want to look for another option in two weeks, however, when they square off with the Carolina Panthers.
A player who seemingly got a boost for the Titans offense with Tannehill under center was A.J. Brown. He had six catches on eight targets, both of which were season-highs. While he did not get into the end zone, this bodes well for his usage and production going forward.
Wood: Ryan Tannehill never put things together in Miami, but he had flashes of brilliance. When he signed in Tennessee, many correctly projected he would get a chance at the helm before the season's end. There's little statistically to say Tannehill is materially better than Marcus Mariota, but sometimes change for change's sake makes a difference. Of the list of replacements Matt provided, Tannehill is the one most likely to earn another multi-year starting job and flourish. It's not a strong probability, but it's within the realm of projectable outcomes.
Ryan Fitzpatrick has been an elite fantasy quarterback at multiple points of his career. The problem is he's just as likely to be a disaster in any given week. The Dolphins are in "lose now" mode, and yet the team seemingly went back to Fitzpatrick because he's better than Josh Rosen. It's a hard puzzle to decipher. And Fitzpatrick's age works against him in dynasty circles. If you're in a 2QB or Superflex league, Fitzpatrick is a justified desperation add, but little more.
Simpkins: I covered some of these quarterbacks in my Waivers of the Future column this week. I will try to sum up what I said in that piece about Moore and Schaub. The name Matt Moore elicits eye rolls from most of the fantasy community, but I actually think with Andy Reid’s ability to scheme and adjust to his players’ strengths and weaknesses—as others have mentioned—that he’ll be just fine and even serviceable for those who are hard up at the position. Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce, in particular, don’t take as much of a hit from this change as one might think because Reid will still find creative ways to scheme the ball into their hands.
As for Matt Schaub, we know that he’s always been a game manager type of quarterback, and that has just become truer as his limited physical skill set has deteriorated with age. The only positive thing I can say about his opportunity is that there will be a lot of garbage time scenarios for this team and he might get you a touchdown or two per week that way. Obviously, the quality of opportunities for Julio Jones, Austin Hooper, and Calvin Ridley decreases with this change. Devonta Freeman might see more volume, but that’s the only player I see getting the slightest of upticks from this change.
On the Rise? Or, Likely An Anomaly?
Waldman: Choose one player from each position group and explain why their fantasy values are on the rise or why their recent production is unlikely a trend. Values are PPR formats.
- TE Mike Gesicki: No.15 TE for the past two weeks.
- TE Kyle Rudolph: No.6 TE the past two weeks.
- TE Gerald Everett: No.11 TE the past two weeks.
- QB Andy Dalton: No.10 QB the past two weeks.
- QB Kirk Cousins: No.2 QB the past two weeks.
- QB Matthew Stafford: No.6 the past two weeks.
- QB Aaron Rodgers: No.1 QB the past two weeks.
- RB Devonta Freeman: No.9 RB the past two weeks.
- RB Chase Edmonds: No.2 RB the past two weeks.
- RB Miles Sanders: No.15 RB the past two weeks.
- RB Adrian Peterson: No. 16 RB the past two weeks.
- WR Marvin Jones, Jr: No.2 WR the past two weeks
- WR Golden Tate: No. 6 WR the past two weeks.
- WR Zach Pascal: No. 12 WR the past two weeks.
- WR Corey Davis: No.17 WR the past two weeks.
Simpkins: Rudolph has big weeks that make his year-end numbers look better than they are and they usually come when Kirk Cousins is playing well, which seems to be sporadic. As a Rudolph general manager in a league this year, I can tell you that I went a different direction at the position after he virtually scored nothing for me over the first three weeks. Some folks are ok with taking a zero and waiting for that big splash week, but that’s not how I prefer to build my teams. He’ll come crashing back to earth like he always does and will leave those that bid heavily on his services severely disappointed.
Stafford has been allowed to be more aggressive with downfield passing again this season and that has helped his fantasy production immensely. With Kerryon Johnson out for multiple weeks, I don’t think the Lions have any choice but to keep throwing. It is my belief that Stafford will finish within the top ten this year.
It’s likely that David Johnson injured his ankle on the first play of the game and that the coaching staff is just being coy about it. The genie is out of the bottle and now the coaching staff sees that Edmonds deserves more work, even when David Johnson is healthy. I doubt Edmonds will remain RB2, but he’s definitely going to be worth putting into our lineups going forward.
I tried really hard to like what I saw on Sunday, but I’m very skeptical that the offense is all better now that Tannehill is in. Offensive Coordinator Arthur Smith did a better job of using formations and concepts to spread out the defense. He incorporated many more shallow crosses and shorter routes that weren’t there in previous games.
Yet, I didn’t see a quarterback that was head and shoulders better than Marcus Mariota. Tannehill didn’t see open receivers at times. He made some ill-advised throws into double coverage that fortunately made it through to the receiver. He may not be so lucky the next time he attempts that. There is a fine line between daring and stupid and I feel Tannehill was slightly over that line. When this offense faces more quality defenses such as the Panthers in week nine, I believe they will struggle again. That doesn’t bode well for Davis finishing the year in the top twenty..
Wood: The Vikings passing offense was so bad in the early weeks, everyone gave up on them. Yet, we have a long history that belies such woeful productivity. Kirk Cousins may have trouble in big games, but his fantasy resume is ironclad. Four consecutive Top-8 finishes in spite of different coaches, supporting casts, and leading receivers.
The team has found balance and are winning games; the ship is righted. Rudolph is never going to be more than the fourth target behind Adam Thielen, Stefon Diggs, and Dalvin Cook, but that still means he'll have a handful of decent games particularly when he finds the end zone. The bar is low to be a top-10 fantasy tight end, and Rudolph is squarely in that mix.
Stafford had a bad back last year and it derailed an otherwise productive career. He was a top-10 fantasy quarterback most seasons, until falling out of the top 20 last year. So we shouldn't be shocked at his play of late, it's more in line with his career marks than what we saw in 2018.
Darrell Bevell may not be everyone's favorite play-caller, but he's had more success than a lot of other current NFL play-callers. With Marvin Jones, Kenny Golladay, and T.J. Hockenson, there's no reason to think Stafford won't continue to push for top-12 value.
The fact Sanders ranks RB15 over the last two weeks illustrates how weak the running back position has become. In an era of committees, being 15th over a multi-week span barely rates excitement. I can assure you Sanders wasn't in many dominant lineups over that span. As an Eagles fan, who watches every snap, I can say definitively he comes across more like a drive killer than a key cog. Jordan Howard is a better cog in the wheel; at least right now.
Davis' fantasy prospects were re-awakened when Ryan Tannehill took over for Marcus Mariota. Although Tannehill's coach may be turned back into a pumpkin soon, it's refreshing to see a passer willing to throw downfield and trust his outside receivers to track the ball. . .
Schofield: Kyle Rudolph was seemingly on his way out of town this offseason. Minnesota drafted a potential replacement in Irv Smith, and the veteran tight end was linked with any team (like the New England Patriots) that needed help at the position.
But in recent weeks he has seen an uptick in his production, and his best game of the season was last week against the Lions when he had five catches on six targets for 58 yards and a touchdown. So much of what the Vikings want to do offensively is based off the play-action/boot-action game, and those designs are great to give tight ends easy target opportunities.
Speaking of easy opportunities, over the next three weeks this is the Vikings' schedule: Washington at home (Thursday on a short week), at Kansas City (after a mini-bye) and then at Dallas. All three teams are in the top half of the league in terms of fantasy points allowed to tight ends right now. His numbers should continue to be solid over the next month.
Let Stafford be Stafford.
Yes, this is a "West Wing" reference but it is also the reason why Stafford is putting up great numbers this season. While dealing with a back injury last season Stafford posted anemic average air yards per attempt. But he is a completely different quarterback this season. He is averaging 10.5 air yards per attempt this year according to Next Gen Stats, topped only by Ryan Fitzpatrick and Jameis Winston.
Catering to his strengths as a passer (namely, his right arm) has paid dividends for the Detroit offense. As long as this continues, so will his production.
There is not much going right for the Philadelphia Eagles offense right now, but if there is one thing working in their favor, it is Miles Sanders out of the backfield. Doug Pederson has done some creative things to get him involved as a target, and with Desean Jackson banged up and Nelson Agholor refusing to extend his arms for deep balls in the vertical passing game, the Eagles would be wise to keep getting Sanders involved as a receiver. He'll get a chance this week against a Bills defense that, if it has a weak link, comes in covering running backs out of the backfield.
Tate's numbers the past few weeks are largely a mirage, in my opinion. He had over 100 yards receiving in the Thursday night loss to the Patriots, but the majority of those yards came on one play. Sterling Shepard's absence has given him some opportunities, but Shepard believes he is ready to come back to the field, meaning Tate might see his opportunities diminish soon. I would try selling him now if you can because I would be shocked if his numbers continue as they have the past two weeks.
Haseley: We’ve seen Gerald Everett slowly develop into the player we expected when he drafted in the 2nd round in 2017. His small school background and big school talent were always there, but it needed a few years to blossom into what it is now. Everett is 4th on a busy offense in targets and he has two 10+ target games in the last three. He has become more of a focus in the offense, as opposed to an inconsistent outlet. I expect more of the same to continue for Everett this year and in the future.
Not only is Matthew Stafford playing at a higher level this year compared to last, but the near future also looks to be rosy for the veteran signal-caller. We’ve seen Stafford be more Stafford-like again but with better results. He has 13 touchdown passes and only 3 interceptions through six games. The knee injury to Kerryon Johnson puts a damper on the ground game, but if anyone can thrive without a primary rushing attack, it’s Stafford. A bump in pass production may be in the cards for the Lions for the rest of the season, especially if the team struggles to find a viable replacement for Johnson. The end result is a more active Stafford.
I’m not sold on Pascal being a reliable fantasy option moving forward. T.Y. Hilton is the primary option, followed by a combination of Eric Ebron and Jack Doyle. Pascal at best if the team’s fourth option. And, the volume is low—3.2 targets per game. A viable fantasy starter with 3.2 targets per game is tough to validate. To muddy the waters more, Parris Campbell (abdominal) will be returning at some point, which will relegate Pascal back to limited snaps.
Davenport: I'm in on Everett maintaining these performance levels. Although I still believe Tyler Higbee is a factor, it seems clear that Everett has separated himself and earned more opportunities going forward. He's averaged a 70.6 percent snap share since a poor Week 1, and in the last three weeks, he's seen 26 targets. He's a tight end on an offense that loves three-wide receiver sets so he'll be inconsistent at times, but I believe he'll finish as a top 10 tight end at year's end.
A lot has been made of the stretch of games in which Rodgers had not had more than two touchdown passes. But it is interesting that it was Week 5 of 2018 that we last saw Rodgers throw for two or more scores. I'm not here to say he's washed up, but he's not the same hyper-efficient guy playing in a pass-happy offense. The new offensive philosophy is fine with running the football, and the defense has been better as well. Prior to last week's explosion, Rodgers was not even a starter in standard 12 team leagues. I'd argue that while he may not be QB13, he's more like QB8-10 than he is an elite option.
Sanders is an explosive guy, but he's still growing into what it means to be an NFL running back. He's inconsistent on the ground, so despite his big-play ability that the Eagles want to see in the passing game he's been limited by Jordan Howard's predictable production in the running game. I think maintaining his current level of production is going to be hard when looking at his snap rates. Unless he starts to earn more time I see him regressing to Top 36, not Top 15 production. If you can hold him for the chance that he starts taking the reigns that's fine, but outside of a Howard injury I'm not sure I see that happening.
I didn't pay enough attention to Pascal before this past week, and I'm no longer going to do that. Chester Rogers and Deon Cain are seeing fairly similar snap shares, but if you watched the Colts recently you'll see Pascal dominating his quarterback's attention. The other two are doing little to distinguish themselves and the Colts obviously need someone to step up opposite T.Y. Hilton.
What I saw Sunday was pretty eye-opening. I don't think he's a top-12 wide receiver going forward, but I do think he may be taking the step to being a Top-36 option. I believe what I'm seeing so I'm buying right now. I could be wrong, but if you wait to pick him up and he's making the leap you won't be able to get him next week. .
Hindery: I am buying into the rise of Everett more than I am Gesicki or Kyle Rudolph. No tight end has seen more targets than Everett over the last four weeks. His 34 over this stretch rank just ahead of Austin Hooper (33) and Travis Kelce (32).
The Los Angeles Rams offense is going through a phase where they are having to make some adjustments. The offense that took the league by storm its first two years has finally seen some real slippage. One of the adjustments looks to be an increased reliance on the tight end and the timing and circumstances of Everett’s emergence make it especially noteworthy.
He is just entering his third year in the NFL and it is rare for tight ends to really emerge right away, especially a raw, small-school prospect like Everett. He carries a significant draft pedigree as well. He was the first-ever draft choice of the Sean McVay era in Los Angeles, going off the board 44th overall in a draft where the Rams didn’t have a first-rounder.
Of this group, I’m buying into Aaron Rodgers. We know he has overall QB1 upside and he has thrown for 400-plus yards twice in the last four weeks. He may be slightly past his prime but some of his declining production in recent years can be tied directly to his lack of health. He looks healthier now than he has in years and there is no reason he can’t continue to put up big numbers.
Edmonds has the most upside of this group and is a potential league-winning type of player if David Johnson is out for an extended period. After some hiccups early in the season, the Arizona offense is starting to round into form.
A few weeks ago, the Cardinals started calling more designed runs for Kyler Murray and that has really helped open up more space for the running backs. Over the past four weeks, Johnson and Edmonds have averaged 35.0 fantasy points per game combined (PPR). This is a big RB production pie and Edmonds could gobble up a huge share of the production if Johnson is out or is playing at less than 100 percent.
I’m not completely buying into the production surges of any of these guys being sustainable. Of the group, Marvin Jones is the most intriguing. We have seen these big spike weeks from Marvin Jones before only for him to come crashing back down to earth soon after. He may not see another 13-target game like Week 7 all season but he is averaging 7.0 targets per game on the season and has a solid aDOT of 13.9.
Tremblay: Everett is on the rise. I expected the Rams tight ends to become more specialized this season, with Tyler Higbee focusing more on blocking while Gerald Everett was used more as a receiver. It took a few weeks for that to play out, but over the last four games, Everett has averaged 8.5 targets per game and has been effective with them. I hope it's not just a short-term blip because I'd like for my preseason expectations to be proven correct. We'll see, but for now, he looks like he's worth a roster spot in just about any format.
We all know that Rodgers has it in him to be great. From 2008 through 2016, he was a top-two fantasy quarterback in six of those eight seasons (and sat out half the season in one of the others). He backslid over the past couple years and got off to a slow start this season, but he's been back to his old self recently. His stylistic differences with Matt LeFleur (especially affecting Rodgers's ability to audible at the line of scrimmage) have been smoothed over, and Rodgers seems poised to put up strong fantasy numbers the rest of the way.
Sanders looks like he's a year away from being a reliable fantasy contributor. He's performed well as a receiver but hasn't been very impressive so far as a runner. His share of the backfield touches as declined in recent weeks as Jordan Howard has established himself as the leader of the committee. Sanders won't be in the top 15 going forward.
Jones has had one fantastic game so far this season. It's the most recent one, so it's fresh in everybody's minds. While he was always a better receiver than his stats indicated over the first five games, the sixth (most recent) game is the truly fluky one. This offense can support two solid fantasy wide receivers. Expect both Marvin Jones and Kenny Golladay to be solid fantasy WR2s going forward—which means that you can expect Jones to significantly fall off from his recent pace.
Devy Prospecting
Matt Waldman: Tell us about two college players whose skills excite you. They do not need to be draft-eligible this year.
Tremblay: The presumed top pick in next year's draft is Tua Tagovailoa, but Joe Burrow looks like the better pure passer to me. He can throw the ball accurately all over the field—deep, short, intermediate, over the middle, on the sideline—and he does it from the pocket, or under pressure, with or without play-action. He's the most well-rounded and consistent passer in college ball right now, and I'll be excited to see how his game eventually transitions to the pros.
Chuba Hubbard has been the most productive college running back this season, but what he's done is less impressive than how he's done it. The hole he's supposed to run through isn't always easy to find, but he has shown terrific run vision, as well as timing and patience in letting the blocking in front him develop. Moreover, he has deceiving strength and excellent balance, allowing him to consistently gain yards after contact. As with Burrow, while he has been tremendously productive this season in college, what's intriguing is that his game seems likely to translate particularly well to the next level.
Hindery: As someone who is spending a lot of timing preparing for, writing about, and playing college football daily fantasy every week, it is tough to limit it to just two. So I am just going to take the homer approach and talk about a pair of Ohio State Buckeyes who I am having a lot of fun watching.
Quarterback Justin Fields is only a true sophomore and won’t be eligible for the draft until 2021. By that time, he might challenge Trevor Lawrence for the top spot. Fields is still a bit raw and he holds onto the ball too long at times. However, he seems to improve every week and his tools are off the chart.
He is built like a linebacker and claims to have run a 4.42 laser time and 4.38 hand-timed 40 during Ohio State’s spring testing. He has one of the biggest arms in college football too. His production in his first 7 starts has been elite. He has a 22-to-1 TD to INT ratio and has rushed for another 8 touchdowns. We have seen the huge fantasy upside of Lamar Jackson and Fields could be that kind of guy with his special athletic ability. He will be in the mix for the top overall Devy pick in Superflex leagues this offseason.
Fields’ favorite target has been true sophomore Chris Olave. He only plays about half of the snaps because of OSU’s depth at wide receiver (including three senior starters) but has been the best of the bunch. His combination of speed, quickness, and footwork has allowed him to create easy separation. He has caught 6 touchdowns and narrowly missed a couple more when Fields barely missed him on deep balls. Olave is never mentioned alongside other top sophomores like Rondale Moore and Justyn Ross but that could change in 2020 if he and Fields can take their games to the next level.
Davenport: I don't fancy myself a great evaluator of talent, but when I watch college football there are a couple of obvious guys who jump off the screen at me. Jerry Jeudy is a player who I can't wait to try and roster when he breaks into the NFL. Rarely do I sit in awe of athletic ability or get excited about college players because my focus is so squarely on the NFL, but Jeudy is as exciting as it gets.
Another guy who has my attention is Travis Etienne. I know that he has some limitations and is a bit raw, but his natural ability is obvious every time I watch him. In the right situation, he could come into the NFL and be an immediate producer with a home-run upside.
Haseley: Justyn Ross looks like the next great Clemson wide receiver to make it in the NFL. His flexibility, speed, and my-ball mentality are common traits for receivers out of Clemson. His ability to consistently make contested catches and get separation against defenders in coverage elevates the game of Trevor Lawrence. Ross still has some work to do to improve his game, but he's already one of the stronger prospects in his class.
Jonathan Taylor is in the category of outstanding running backs from the Big Ten. He is in the same category as Melvin Gordon (also from Wisconsin), Saquon Barkley, Ezekiel Elliott, and Carlos Hyde. Taylor has matching styles to many of these widely successful backs. Aside from excellent balance, footwork, power, size, and speed, Taylor sees the field well and he can break tackles with the best of them. He's easily a Top 5 rookie draft pick and perhaps higher if the draft landing spot is ideal.
Schofield: As someone who focuses on the quarterback position, it is hard not to be excited about the rise of Joe Burrow. As I wrote about him over at the RSP this summer, he was intriguing but I wanted to see him answer some questions, particularly about his decision-making. And answer them he has. From speaking to people in and around teams this fall, he has already played himself into the first-round discussion, and now it is a matter of how high he can rise. If he can go into Tuscaloosa in a few weeks and knock off Saban, Tua, and the Crimson Tide, we might have a three-way battle for QB1 between Tua, Herbert, and Burrow.
Speaking of Alabama, when watching Tua it is hard not to be mesmerized with Henry Ruggs III. His ability to turn a simple slant route into a house call will translate to the next level without question. You cannot teach speed, and you struggle to defend it as well. He can be a game-breaker at the next level. Plus, it gives me a chance to link to the insane video of him chasing down.
Wood: While a lot of teams have been "tanking for Tua," it's Burrow who, as Maurile said, could be the top quarterback on the board. Joe Burrow has been the catalyst for LSU's transformation from a run-heavy, conservative offense into a dynamic, explosive passing attack. Burrow has the prototypical size (6'4", 215 lbs), has a big arm and a quick release. He's torched the best conference in the country for 2,484 yards, 29 touchdown passes, and only three interceptions. Burrow has a huge test coming up against Alabama in two weeks, but if he continues at his current pace, he'll be a first-round pick next April.
Alabama's Jerry Jeudy is a known commodity and will be a top pick in the draft. But what of his teammate, junior DeVonta Smith? He's been as much the playmaker as Jeudy this season but doesn't have the physical profile (6'1", 175 lbs.) of a star NFL receiver.
Simpkins: Unfortunately, I do not have the time to scout players years ahead. I watch them extensively after they’ve declared for the Draft. I also do not want to taint my process by introducing biases of others, so I try very hard not to listen or read what others are saying or writing about these guys.
I do watch some college football and in so doing, I can’t help but notice a few players that pop off the screen when I watch them. Ohio State’s Justin Fields is such a player for me. I love dual-threat quarterbacks and I feel that the NFL is doing a better job of figuring out how to use those guys effectively. Another player that I enjoy watching is Oklahoma’s CeeDee Lamb, who is one of the best trackers and adjusters to the football in the air that I’ve seen in a long time. I’ll be interested to see if my initial intuitions about these players are correct when I dive into their film.
Waldman: Oh, why not...
Let's roll with a pair of wide receivers at Purdue. Everyone knows about Rondale Moore. Before he got hurt, Moore was turning college football on its ear with mind-bending runs after the catch. This is a short, sturdy, and strong receiver with Barry Sanders-like movement.
You read this right and most of you who read me weekly know that I don't throw that kind of thing out there often. While Tyreek Hill's game is entering the same neighborhood of the great Steve Smith, his college game wasn't even in the same state. Moore's is already in the same zip code.
Freshman David Bell plays beyond his years. I had an NFL scout contact me this week about him. He handles contact well, uses his hands with good technique to catch the ball, and these two skills make him good and winning targets even when he's covered. There's a Chris Godwin vibe to his game. Bell's former high school offensive coordinator has written articles for my cite, former NFL running back Chad Spann. I look forward to asking him about Bell down the line.