We're halfway through the fantasy season. If your teams have been wildly successful, it's time to plan ahead for the stretch run. If your teams are struggling, it may be time for desperate measures in order to make every week count.
With this in mind, let's examine what we think about these topics as we head into Week 7.
Let's roll...
Potential Midseason Sliders
Matt Waldman: From the list below, explain which THREE players are most likely to suffer a midseason slide from their status as top fantasy producers at their respective positions.
- WR D.J. Chark
- WR Terry McLaurin
- WR Cooper Kupp
- WR Chris Godwin
- QB Patrick Mahomes II
- QB Lamar Jackson
- QB Matt Ryan
- RB Aaron Jones
- RB Derrick Henry
- RB Austin Ekeler
- TE Austin Hooper
- TE Mark Andrews
- TE Evan Engram
Who makes your shortlist?
Daniel Simpkins: I feel Austin Ekeler is an obvious choice to cool because the Chargers are working Melvin Gordon back in and Ekeler’s usage continues to fall.
Aaron Jones will suffer simply because of Jamaal Williams’ return to the offense. Jones won’t enjoy the kind of volume he got with Williams out. This offense continues to be a timeshare, and though that is frustrating for the “Free Aaron Jones” crowd, it’s just how the Packers choose to deploy their personnel.
Derrick Henry’s offense has ground to a halt, so he’s also one to tab for regression after a hot start. He’s a runner who gets stronger with rhythm. The Titans don’t have the luxury of establishing the run on most weeks.
Jeff Pasquino: The biggest constant in the NFL is change. The biggest changes are those that come from players returning to a lineup and impacting the offense and players around them. With that in mind, here are the top choices from the list for me.
Engram jumps off of this list for me, as the Giants have been decimated in their passing attack this season. Across the board, New York has had change after change. Their Week 1 lineup featured Eli Manning and Saquan Barkley, and injuries to Sterling Shepard and Barkley along with Golden Tate's suspension for the first four games of the year left Engram as the top receiving option most weeks.
Engram missed Week 6 (Patriots) but should be back and dominant against the Cardinals this week - and if you have a need at another position (and have depth at tight end), trading Engram at his peak may return you a strong RB or WR option.
Engram will still likely finish as a TE1 for the season, but that speaks more to the lack of depth this year at tight end than as a strong likelihood to remain a Top 5 (or better) tight end. Golden Tate and Barkley will eat into his production, as will tougher opponents.
The Chargers are not playing well right now, as shown by a lackluster performance against Pittsburgh, but the bigger takeaways were how Los Angeles was moving the ball against the Steelers. Tight end Hunter Henry returned to action after starting the season on IR, and Melvin Gordon had more snaps (37) than Ekeler (28).
Both of these point towards more involvement in the passing game for Henry and more carries for Gordon, both of which impact Ekeler's value in a negative way. Ekeler will still have value, but much more as an RB2 or flex option with Gordon getting more opportunities in the backfield and Henry getting more targets in the passing game.
Green Bay wants to have balance on offense, and that comes from less Aaron Rodgers and the passing game and more from running the ball. With the defense playing well and with Davante Adams and Jamaal Williams knocked out in Week 4 against Philadelphia, the door was wide open for Jones to build on his three touchdown start for the first three weeks and rack up the numbers.
Jones delivered to the tune of five more scores the past two weeks, but Monday Night Football against Detroit told a different story. Sure, Adams was still out, but Williams (14-104-0 rushing, 4-32-1 receiving, 5 targets) had more work than Jones (11-47-0 rushing, 4-13-0 on 7 targets).
I expect both Jones and Williams to split duties in the backfield with both healthy again, as both had nearly the same number of snaps for Green Bay the first three weeks of the season. Jones will move down towards a lower RB1 or high RB2 going forwards as Williams gets more work and establishes himself as an RB3 or flex with upside each week.
Jason Wood: Matt you picked a fascinating group for regression because most of them have actually faced difficult schedules, to date. The easiest schedule among the quarterbacks has been Patrick Mahomes II; his opponents are giving up 10 percent more fantasy points to quarterbacks than the league average. Ryan's schedule has been 4 percent easier than average, and Jackson's schedule has been 6 percent harder than average.
The running backs are a risky bunch, even if they haven't benefited from easy schedules thus far. Derrick Henry is stuck in the miasma of a sputtering Titans offense that made Ryan Tannehill as its starter. Henry is a one-dimensional player and is more beholden to a positive game script than other top-flight fantasy running backs. He's a concern. It's also hard to argue with my colleagues about Ekeler. Ekeler's days atop the fantasy rankings are gone until Melvin Gordon gets hurt or moves to a new team.
One name worth calling out is Austin Hooper. The Falcons have faced an obscenely easy schedule so far in terms of tight end defense. On average, their opponents have allowed 14 percent more fantasy points per game than the league.
Sean Settle: We have seen some players got off to fast starts this season and are producing at an unsustainable level. There are a few names on this list that will likely suffer a slide for one reason or another. Whether it be another player returning from injury, a tougher schedule, or just performing at a level that the data does not support for a full season.
Ekeler is the first name that jumps off this list and it is easy to see why. With the return of Melvin Gordon, we have seen a steep decline in recent weeks. Ekeler has just 8 carries in the past 2 games and 21 rushing yards to show for it. He will continue to be valuable in PPR formats but will not see enough work overall to justify an RB1 status. The Chargers have no reason to save Gordon and will most likely run him into the ground before he leaves in free agency.
Engram has produced at a very high level to start this season, but he has had a lot of things working in his favor. With Golden Tate suspended and injuries to Sterling Shepard and Saquon Barkley Engram has seen a high volume of targets. Engram is also dealing with a knee injury of his own that ruled him out of last week’s game against the Patriots. Expect Engram to feast this week against the Cardinals but then scale back as other players for the Giants eat into his targets. He may still finish as a top 10 tight end in a very weak class this year, but he is in for a slide in production as other skill players come back for the Giants.
McLaurin has benefitted from being the only real option in the Redskins offense to start the season. He has seen at least seven targets in every game he has played this season. He also has two 100-yard games and a touchdown in every game except for against New England.
Washington should have plenty of garbage time opportunities this year, but McLaurin is performing well outside of his norm. He has made the most of his opportunity and cashed in with touchdowns this season but that is not a sustainable stat. As the touchdowns start to dry up, McLaurin is going to fall back down in the rankings.
Bob Henry: Let’s take a closer look at Jones, Ekeler and Engram. All three have outstanding ceilings as they’ve shown already this season. However, each player faces increased competition for touches in the second half of the season.
Jones demonstrated what he can do when the team feeds him the ball in a featured capacity. Without Davante Adams and Jamaal Williams in the fold, Jones carried the Packers offense and produced strong RB1 numbers.
With Williams back to health, the Packers reverted right back to a committee, or hot-hand, approach with Williams slightly out-touching Jones during Monday night’s “win” over the Lions. When Adams returns, the Packers will surely focus a chunk of their offense towards him as their No.1 playmaker. Jones has RB1 talent, but the Packers don’t seem willing to commit to him consistently in that manner.
Ekeler’s touches crashed last week with Melvin Gordon fully back into the lineup. As long as both backs are healthy, there is no chance for Ekeler to maintain consistent RB1 production.
In fact, both backs will have a difficult time producing consistent RB1 production while either one could have weekly spikes. The return of Hunter Henry further waters down their target share in the passing game putting both of them in the RB2 range, which is a big step back for Ekeler after he produces elite RB1 numbers in the first six weeks while Gordon was away from the team.
For Engram, it’s all about getting/staying healthy and target share. Engram has been an upper-tier TE1 until sitting out Week 6, but that was without Golden Tate and (for a shorter stretch) Saquon Barkley. Both players are either back or expected back quickly, while Engram also has to return to 100 percent.
When Daniel Jones took over for Eli Manning, he brought some new capabilities to the offense, effectively breathing new life into what had become a stagnant unit with Eli. Even so, Jones will endure growing pains and the overall pie that represents the Giants's offensive and fantasy potential may prove to be inconsistent or streak the rest of the way.
It remains to be seen if Engram can sustain his targets, but it’s reasonable to think he’ll take a small hit that could push him down into the lower half of TE1s as Henry rejoins the group, Cook gains momentum and others like T.J. Hockenson improve and add to the TE1 overall depth.
Will Grant: McLaurin seems like an easy choice here because the Washington offense is a pile of question marks and McLaurin is still a rookie wide receiver on a bad offense. Last week against Miami, McLaurin torched the Dolphins, but it was on a week where Paul Richardson Jr didn't have a catch and Trey Quinn had just two receptions. As Washington faces tougher competition, I expect McLaurin to become a much more average fantasy receiver - somewhere in the WR3 / flex option at best.
Hooper has more receptions and receiving yards than Julio Jones? Yeah, we saw that coming. Hooper has 'regression' written all over him and he's a perfect 'sell high' candidate right now. The Falcons are 1-5 for a lot of reasons, but fixing that almost certainly involves seeing more of Jones and Calvin Ridley and less of Hooper.
The Giants are clearly not going to challenge anyone this season, and with Saquan Barkley back in the lineup, his opportunities are going to fall even further. He sat out against the Patriots last week, but he had two very average games the two weeks before that against Washington and Minnesota. Engram finishes as a fantasy TE1 this season, but he'll be at the bottom of the top 10 rather than in the #3-#5 spot that most were hoping for.
Jeff Haseley: The return of Melvin Gordon hurts both parties here. It's possible that both could thrive with decent to above-average weekly production, but the way the Chargers are playing and their offensive line woes being a concern, it's looking more and more like both Ekeler and Gordon will struggle to be fantasy successes this season.
The presence of Jamaal Williams definitely puts a fly in the ointment for Aaron Jones. From a volume perspective, we should see mixed carry shares, as well as goal line, looks. I don't trust Green Bay with fantasy running backs, to begin with, and now it's looking like a committee approach will keep them both grounded. Unless an injury opens up a single rushing threat, Jones is mired in inconsistency.
Looking at Baltimore's schedule, they have one favorable pass defense opponent for the rest of the year - at Cincinnati Week 10. Plus, can we really expect Jackson to stay healthy with the constant usage he's receiving? He's on pace for 3,500 passing and 1,000 rushing which seems difficult to sustain. He's a sell-high player for me.
Offensive LIne PLay
Waldman: Answer the following questions.
- How does offensive line play influence your fantasy decisions with player acquisitions (draft, free agency, and trades) and start-sit calls?
- What successes or mistakes have you had regarding the prognostication of fantasy players as it relates offensive line play? For example, "I underestimated the lack of cohesion that the Atlanta offensive line would have due to new players and a new scheme that runs significantly more gap plays than last year. As a result, I overvalued Devonta Freeman. Or, I didn't consider that Baker Mayfield is Ferris Bueller without Kevin Zeitler."
Grant: For me, it factors in a lot, and I second-guess a lot of acquisition ideas if I know the offensive line isn't playing well. The best example I have is Joe Mixon and the Bengals.
Earlier this summer, I was really high on Mixon—looking at him as a high second-round draft pick. His skills were great, he was poised to take over the majority of the offense and it seemed like he was poised for a great season.
Then the offensive line woes began, and by the time the pre-season came around, it was obvious that Mixon was a huge risk factor. He fell into the third round as the season got closer and when it came to actual drafting—I began to shy away from taking him at all.
After seeing the Bengals in action, I don't think Mixon is a guy I'd trade for unless it was 'non-starter' for 'non-starter' type of thing. With only 3.4 yards per carry so far and only 1 touchdown all season, he's not in any of my starting lineups at this point.
I am not sure I'd want anyone from the Bengals on my fantasy roster unless I was in a desperation play—all because I don't expect their offensive line to give them enough time to do anything except in garbage time.
Henry: I like to think that I am thorough in my approach to projections and overall preparation for making draft-day decisions. Having said that, the narrative of players can certainly influence our minds enough that we either downplay the offensive line’s importance or flat out overlook it in favor of other positive takes such as a new coach or anticipated role in the offense.
As I look back on Joe Mixon, I think about how I intermittently upgraded or downgraded him throughout the summer as these factors all danced around in my head and ultimately in how I projected Mixon and the Bengals offense. In hindsight, I didn’t consistently put enough emphasis on the attrition across their offensive line. It has impacted Mixon and Dalton.
On the Browns, I remained bullish despite obvious flags warning otherwise, but I was much more bullish on Nick Chubb than Baker Mayfield. At least that one seems to be reasonably correct. Overall, the offensive line is like the heartbeat of the offense. When it works well and it’s in rhythm, you don’t really pay any attention to it. When the line isn’t coherent or on the same page, you notice, but even then it’s easier to not look past the players we monitor and track for fantasy production.
Settle: Whether you are trying to decide which running back to start or projecting how a quarterback is going to do, it all starts with the offensive line in front of them. It's common sense to any football fan: A quarterback that is being sacked or harassed on almost every play is not likely to push the ball down the field and throw for a lot of yards. A running back that does not get good blocking in front of him is not going to have holes to run through and will not generate a lot of yards.
With that said, overall offensive line play is not the end-all, be-all when making these decisions. We also have to take into account the matchup that week. Even the best offensive line may struggle against a top-rated defensive front and sometimes game script will change based on a team’s weakness.
Offenses have been attacking the Eagles perimeter defenders and finding success so there is no reason to attack the middle. The Cardinals have struggled to cover any tight end or running back out of the backfield. Finding holes to exploit is what the NFL is all about. It may start with the play of the offensive line, but we have to look deeper than that to find the best matchups.
One situation that I totally misread was the Vikings offensive line. They made every effort to address their weak line in free agency and through the draft but have seen mixed results. Their offensive line ranks near the top in run blocking and then near the bottom in pass blocking.
From that we have seen a lot of success from Dalvin Cook and Alexander Mattison but also struggles from Kirk Cousins, Adam Thielen, and Stefon Diggs. The pass blocking has gotten better the past two weeks and we have seen Cousins, Thielen, and Diggs all have better games while the running game has struggled.
Rather than play to the power of their run blocking, the Vikings played to the matchup and attacked Philadelphia on the outside. If we only considered what the offensive line was good at we would have missed on everything from Cousins, Thielen, and Diggs last week.
Wood: Years ago, the biggest mistake fantasy managers made was paying no attention to opposing defensive backs. But that's changed in recent years and we now have reliable and predictable models to help figure out how opposing defenses are going to impact our receivers. With defensive back analysis improving, the next frontier for arbitrage is, without question, offensive line analysis.
We—as in the collective we of the industry—are TERRIBLE at offensive line analysis as it relates to fantasy production.
Waldman: THANK YOU.
Wood: We are terrible. We're all very good at paying attention to the changes, but we've still not cracked the code on how substitutions and new coaches will change the baseline.
For now, I think I use injuries and news flow in a reactionary manner, much in the way most do. But there's still difficulty assessing the magnitude. If we know the Cowboys are without both starting tackles, should we bench Ezekiel Elliott? Likely not. Should we consider benching Dak or downgrading him, though? Probably. But we need better models to figure out how much to downgrade skill players with problematic lines.
In terms of tangible successes and failures, I think we all greatly underestimated the impact of the Rams and Browns offensive line changes. On the other hand, I think the Bengals very public injuries and the Cardinals' obvious holes were well telegraphed. None of us saw Tunsil being traded to Houston, although curiously the Texans woeful offensive line (in the preseason) didn't keep us from drafting Watson as QB2.
Pasquino: Offensive line play is often overlooked, but if you sit down to watch a game where an o-line is clearly overmatched, you already know how difficult a dominating defensive front can be to overcome for any offense. A mobile quarterback or good playcalling (screens and quick, short passes) can help, but across 60 minutes and 50-60 offensive plays, a poor offensive line can spell disaster for an offense.
If a quarterback has no time to get rid of the ball, production for wide receivers plummets—especially for receivers who like to stretch the field. Those longer routes take more time, and that means a need for protection for the quarterback. Running backs need good offensive line play as well to get through the line and to the next level, where big runs and fantasy production come from the most.
With all of that in mind, offensive line play should be more of a factor for me, but I take it as just one piece of the puzzle. Game flow and matchups are part of that analysis, so the line play does factor in, but it is not the entire decision for starting or benching a player. Line play absolutely should factor into lineup decisions as part of a process, but it is usually part of a run game/pass game matchup analysis already for me.
The biggest thing to be overlooked is changes (such as injuries) to offensive lines. As a recent example, Philadelphia has had issues with keeping Jason Peters healthy at tackle, and that negatively impacted the Eagles in their recent matchups. Dallas is also banged up on offensive line, so previous matchups for both teams may be out the window for Week 7. Looking at the full picture of an offense each and every week—including the starting linemen—has to be part of the lineup analysis each and every week before finalizing fantasy lineups.
Simpkins: I’ve begun to realize it’s important and paid more attention to it over the past five years. Offensive performances that used to mystify me as a fantasy general manager make more sense when the context of offensive line play is included in my analysis.
I definitely underestimated the impact of Roger Saffold and John Sullivan leaving Los Angeles. The offensive line was a stellar unit last season and Gurley put up record numbers with them leading the way. It’s one of several reasons the Rams aren’t able to execute as efficiently this year.
Waldman: I'm so glad you called it as you did, Wood. Collectively, the fantasy community is awful at offensive line analysis. Individual writers aside, like Footballguy Matt Bitonti, who understand the value of team play and work to provide insights that can be helpful, most of us have done little to create a worthwhile process towards evaluating the individuals and the units.
If the NFL tracked and published offensive line statistics, we'd be better at it because in some corner of our industry, we'd have people using offensive linemen in fantasy leagues and there would be a demand for better analysis. I am looking forward to this day to come because it might lead to the most enlightened period of fandom we've ever seen.
I think we fail with offensive line analysis because most of us don't understand the strengths and weaknesses of the individual players, their role and function within specific blocking schemes and pass protection calls, and the strengths and weakness and game plans of their opponents.
I've never read a fantasy analysis that explains things we need to know for matchups. Here are some fictional examples of what I mean:
- The Falcons line is much better at zone blocking than gap blocking but Dirk Koetter runs gap plays with right guard Jamon Brown as the puller despite the fact that he's consistently too slow to reach his assignment.
- The Browns line handles defensive stunts as well as any team in the league, which is the Seahawks defensive line's bread and butter method of winning assignments. Look for Cleveland to run more trap plays with Nick Chubb.
- The Cowboys left tackle Cam Fleming is prone to three different types of rush moves that Shaq Barrett is great at using. Look for a long evening for Dak Prescott whenever he executes a five-step drop against the Buccaneers.
- The Bengals are masterful at running tackle-end twists and the two rookies on the left side of the Rams offensive line are not only slower than average with lateral movement, but they've also never worked together and each is earning their first start this weekend. Expect plenty of sacks because this side of the line isn't quick enough to block in the screen game either. It means the Rams will have to keep a back or tight end on that side to help. On the bright side, these two linemen should be studs when running the Rams' gap scheme. As long as L.A. can stay in this game, the run, short passing, and play-action deep shots will remain viable.
There are also specific running backs and quarterbacks who can deliver despite working with sub-par offensive line play or schemes that, in combination with players, can mitigate some of the deleterious effects of injuries to the offensive line. All of this information would go a long way towards helping us as fantasy players. At this stage, most of it will be anecdotal until the person delivering is doing some serious tracking, which is too time-intensive for an individual to undertake.
Unfortunately, until the NFL—or another team of people—devote serious time and attention to the subject matter that's more detailed than I've seen with the likes of PFF, SIS, and Football Outsiders, we're far away.
Fantasy True or False
Waldman: Address TWO of these statements below, explaining why they are true or false...
- Baker Mayfield is a buy-low value in dynasty leagues.
- Ezekiel Elliott is an overrated NFL running back.
- Tyreek Hill will deliver elite fantasy production down the stretch.
- Jared Cook will build on his past three weeks of top-five production and deliver top-three fantasy numbers for the rest of the year.
Simpkins: Baker Mayfield isn’t a buy-low in dynasty leagues where you must start only one quarterback. While I appreciated what I saw of Mayfield at the Senior Bowl and think he has the potential to be a good quarterback, his promotion to elite status by the dynasty community as a whole based on his rookie season baffled me. Those that sold him for premium assets at other skill positions this summer were wise. Based on his elevated stock over the summer while the hype was in full swing, you’ll still pay more than Mayfield is worth, even buying at a lower price.
Ezekiel Elliott isn’t an overrated running back. I’m speaking purely from a skills standpoint. There are very few backs in the NFL who can integrate all the traits and techniques that Elliott displays on a weekly basis. His movement skills are special and set him up to be able to win collisions with defenders on a regular basis. He’s very good at maneuvering through small holes and isn’t limited to running limited blocking scheme concepts the way many other backs are.
As a dynasty asset, he still scares me, simply because his pattern of off-season behavior has thus far shown me that he really doesn’t understand how to keep himself out of compromising situations. I have sold him across these leagues because I am generally a risk-averse general manager.
Pasquino: The statement regarding Hill above is false. He has a tough stretch in December (at New England in Week 14, Denver in Week 15, at Chicago Week 16) for the fantasy playoffs, so trading Hill before your league's fantasy playoffs might be the best strategy.
Of course, the Chiefs are a very dangerous team and can score at any time, but the matchups for Weeks 14-16 are about as tough as you can get. Using Hill (and Kelce, and Mahomes) as much as you can before their Week 12 bye and trading them after maximizing out their October value would be optimal.
The statement regarding Cook is true. Cook's value has increased with Teddy Bridgewater working Cook more into the passing game for the Saints. Cook has scored two touchdowns over the past two contests, and New Orleans has been desperate for a second receiver to emerge after Michael Thomas.
So far this season, Thomas has 67 targets and RB Alvin Kamara has 39. Cook comes in next at 27 with Ted Ginn Jr at 25, which speaks loudly to the disparity in targets for New Orleans. When Drew Brees returns to action, expect Cook to be the second receiver almost by default, but his shorter passes will help Brees to get reacclimated to action after his thumb injury.
Cook is an excellent acquisition target for trading with great matchups in Week 8 (Arizona) and Week 11 (Tampa Bay) - the two best matchups this year for tight ends - and his playoff schedule also features two Top 6 matchups (Colts, Titans). Get Cook if you can.
Settle: Even with the currently murky injury status of Mahomes, Hill is a single play away from having elite production in any game. He may have tough matchups down the stretch with Chicago and New England, but the Chiefs have committed to throwing the ball more than they run it and Hill will benefit from that.
The Chiefs have so many weapons to cover each week in Hardman, Robinson, Kelce, and even Pringle recently that teams cannot afford to double cover Hill. Look for elite numbers the rest of the season despite the matchups for Hill.
After drafting Cook and suffering through the disappointment early in the year, he has finally started to turn things around. The Saints offense still goes through Michael Thomas and Alvin Kamara first, but Cook currently ranks third in targets.
He has great matchups against Arizona, Tampa Bay, Indianapolis, and Tennessee coming up. The return of Drew Brees should also increase his value, especially as a safety outlet as Brees works himself back into game shape. He is a good tight end in a great offense with good matchups down the stretch
Wood: I disagree with Jeff about Hill and Jeff and Sean about Cook, who has 27 targets through six games and is coming off a three-target game. His snap count and target count are not showing marked and sustained improvement; there is no trend to get excited about.
What has happened is Cook's converted two red-zone targets into touchdowns over the last two games. That's the definition of randomness.
As if that weren't enough, the Saints have faced the second easiest schedule against opposing tight end defenses. Their opponents have allowed 17 percent more fantasy points per game to tight ends than the league.
Hill returned from a shoulder injury in Week 6, and had 5 catches for 80 yards and two touchdowns, in spite of being a part-time player. Coach Reid only played Hill in 50 percent of offensive snaps. Hill should get back to at least 75 percent of snaps in Week 7 and beyond, and step right back into his preseason status as a Top-5 fantasy receiver. I can't see a good argument to the contrary.
Henry: If Amani Cooper misses any amount of time, Elliott's importance spikes. He remains the most important player on the Cowboys offense. That said, one can argue that he wouldn’t have the same impact or opportunity on another team, but I’m not buying that.
Even when the Cowboys offensive line lost key players to injury and they didn’t have Amari Cooper, Elliott’s production remained in the elite RB1 category. In fact, his usage in the passing game grew to new heights. Zeke is a proven workhorse who demands and can weather a workload of 20-plus touches every week.
The Chiefs offense is loaded with playmakers and speed, but nobody is as explosive, dynamic and versatile as Tyreek Hill is. Someday, Mecole Hardman may become what Tyreek is now, but that day isn’t here yet and Hill’s presence creates so much opportunity for everyone else around him.
Having other explosive options like Hardman on the field with Hill at the same time only helps Hill. Opponents must account for all the ways the Chiefs receivers can hurt them because they can break coverages with their speed. I see no reason to believe that Hill won’t resume playing at an elite level and return top 3-to-5 WR1 production the rest of the way.
Grant: The talent around Mayfield is solid and we've seen him perform well consistently with lesser folks last year. At least at the 'skills' positions. The offensive line may be giving him issues and he's clearly underperforming where he should be. I think even if he continues to underperform the rest of this season, he's young enough and has enough talent around him that Cleveland can right the ship and get him back into top tier fantasy quarterback status.
Although I think he's going to struggle as a fantasy back and disappoint anyone (including me) who drafted him with a top-three draft pick, doubting Elliott's prowess is a bad idea. The Cowboys are struggling right now, but Elliott is averaging 4.3 yards per carry.
Add his 140 receiving yards and he's approaching 650 yards from scrimmage for the season. He's sitting No.6 for total rushing yards and No.7 in total fantasy points, including a pair of bad games against the Saints and the Packers. If the Cowboys can straighten their offense out, I think Elliott returns to the elite back everyone knows him to be.
Fantasy Fill-In the Blank
Matt Waldman: Enter a name for two of these sentences and explain the rationales behind them.
- If __________ earns the weekly volume, he could deliver strong starter production in fantasy football.
- We are in denial about the skills of ____________ .
- In general, the fantasy community lacks ____________.
- I don't understand how ___(NFL team)___ can misuse _________.
- I'd love to see ___________ on the ___(NFL team)______.
Grant: If Matt Breida earns the weekly volume, he could deliver strong starter production in fantasy football.
Despite playing in only five games this season, Breida is the 23rd-ranked fantasy running back this season. He's averaging almost 6 yards per carry and over 7 yards per reception and he's turned in some impressive performances with a minimum amount of carries.
But the 49ers are mired in a RBBC approach, with Raheem Mostert posting almost 50 touches so far and Tevin Coleman has 44 touches despite playing in two fewer games than Breida. Still, Breida has another gear and he's broken some impressively long runs this season.
With a full 20+ touch workload each game, he could easily be a top-10 fantasy back.
In general, the fantasy community lacks patience.
I see a lot of owners who 'chase the points'—when someone has a good week—they immediately go after that guy, assuming that one week will turn into 16. Similarly, one bad week makes people want to bail on a player that they've been targeting—and they are willing to cut or trade them away at a lot point.
A good part of fantasy football is 'know when to hold 'em, know when to fold 'em'—and it's important to cut bait on a guy who is under-performing from week to week. But also don't run after out and start cutting your best players to sign the 'flavor of the week' either—give people a chance to produce what you were asking.
Think about Jordan Howard and Duke Johnson Jr. Howard is a top-20 fantasy back but had just 61 yards from scrimmage after the first two weeks of the season. Johnson had 90 yards from scrimmage in his opening match against the Saints, but he's 34th in fantasy running backs now and had his first and only touchdown last week.
Settle: In general, the fantasy community lacks the ability to let go of the previous year’s performance and buy into what is happening right in front of them.
Mike Evans and Chris Godwin are good examples. Evans may have had his one big week, but he also put up a big zero after that. The fantasy community holds on to the fact that he is supposed to be the No.1 guy and is ignoring Godwin's production.
Godwin has 43 receptions to 27 for Evans and is getting more red-zone looks yet we consistently put Evans ahead of Godwin. Sometimes we have to be better about embracing the change.
We are in denial about the skills of Chase Edmonds.
He is currently entrenched behind David Johnson in Arizona and suffers on a team that throws the ball more than it runs. Edmonds has averaged 6.7 yards per carry on the season in his limited work. He has all of the skills to be a starter in the NFL and just needs the volume to prove it.
Wood: If Alexander Mattison earns the weekly volume, he could deliver strong starter production in fantasy football.
Mattison has looked good in limited snaps and has a collegiate profile that fits an every-down NFL role. The Vikings are committed to the run game, and we all underestimated the offensive line's effectiveness under the watchful eye of Kevin Stefanski and Gary Kubiak.
In general, the fantasy community lacks an ability to model offensive line impact on every skill position.
This gets back to what we discussed in a prior question. The health and effectiveness of the offensive line are essential to the success (or failure) of an offense, yet we still making reactionary evaluations based primarily on whether existing starters are in or out of the lineup.
Simpkins: We are in denial about the skills of Teddy Bridgewater.
I’ve heard enough garbage about Bridgewater to occupy a small landfill. “His skinny ankles led to his knee injury.” “He’s too conservative with the football.” “He doesn’t have the skills to be a starting NFL quarterback.” Time fails me to debunk all this ridiculousness, but I will say that if you’ve watched closely, he’s performed well in relief of Drew Brees and given New Orleans hope that they have their quarterback of the future when Brees’ time is up. It’s funny how much his story has sort of paralleled Brees’, isn’t it?
In general, the fantasy community lacks levelheadedness and context. I get discouraged sometimes when I log on to Twitter and see so many “analysts” and fans that are instantly reacting to game action in a way that shows me they don’t have an understanding of what they are watching.
Some of that is genuine ignorance and a need for education, but other times, it is blatant and willful twisting of the facts to support their narrative or brand. I feel that many of our subscribers here at Footballguys are largely the type of people that appreciate deeper, nuanced discussion of the game. That is encouraging and why I continue to write. Always remember that even if they are not the majority, there are always people out there who appreciate the search for truth.