Welcome to this week's roundtable, where our fearless panel of fantasy pundits examine the woes of the Patriots passing game, select and reject candidates who could help or hurt you in the playoffs based on their recent strong performances, and finish the festivities with their choices of the best and worst fantasy matchups from the Week 14 games.
With this in mind, let's examine what we think about these topics as we head into Week 14:
Let's roll...
Patriots Passing game
Matt Waldman: Rookie Scouting Portfolio contributor, football coach, and Footballguys reader J. Moyer posted two tweets that I found interesting:
November 4:
"Brady throws deep enough to try to keep defenses honest. Losing a guy like Gordon who would occupy the opposing CB1 running deep routes likely will have a bigger impact than Josh Gordon's stats would suggest. "
December 2:
"Tom Brady in 2019...
- With Josh Gordon: 7.64 Y/A and 7.93 Air Yards/Attempt
- Sans Josh Gordon: 5.91 Y/A and 6.00 Air Yards/Attempt"
Jeff Pasquino: The first bite for me is that Pittsburgh could not survive losing two of the three "B"s in their offense. No Le'Veon Bell and no Antonio Brown left Big Ben a big mess. That led to the third "B", which was a broken Ben Roethlisberger—and a trash heap in the wake that is the Pittsburgh offense.
Not even JuJu could have enough "ju-ju" to survive and perform as an elite receiver. I thought that the Steelers could keep on putting up solid fantasy numbers, but such was not the case this year. Not even the departed Brown and Bell could live up to their lofty rankings entering 2019, and I fell into that trap.
Andy Hicks: Things just haven’t worked for the Patriots passing game this season. Bad luck, bad timing, and aging or retired players have all contributed.
Their first-round rookie wide receiver N’Keal Harry struggled in training camp and then got injured. Josh Gordon is clearly a shadow of the player he was so relying on him was misguided.
Julian Edelman is closer to 34 years of age than 33 and needs support to do his best work. The addition of Mohamed Sanu doesn’t help their major problem.
The point of view that the passing game is struggling because of the lack of a deep threat is a good theory for the problem the Patriots have right now, but it’s a more detailed issue than just a blanket statement. Ron Gronkowski retiring was never going to be a simple fix either.
I would not be relying on a Patriots receiver for the next three weeks unless you count James White. The running game struggling as well means that the usually productive Patriots offense is struggling on all cylinders.
I can’t see where their points are coming from, but I do know they usually pull a rabbit out of the hat at this time of the year and they have a month to figure it all out. Too late for fantasy football, but good enough to be a threat in the playoffs.
Dan Hindery: There is certainly an added value to having a credible deep threat. It changes the way a defense must game plan in terms of positioning of safeties. We have seen how players like DeSean Jackson and Will Fuller have impacted the overall production of their respective offenses in material ways above and beyond their own production. If teams are willing to single up the Patriots outside wide receivers, it allows them to use their safeties more creatively to limit the short underneath passing game and to stack the box more against the running game.
The lack of talent and speed at wide receiver is not the only problem for the Patriots offense, however. They have suffered injuries on the offensive line. I also feel like we are seeing Brady show his age to some extent.
It isn’t necessarily the early weeks of the season where older players are at a disadvantage. It becomes more of an issue as the season progresses.
Recovery time is slower and it seems the cumulative wear and tear of the season adds up more for players as they get older. Brady has defied history in so many ways and he may continue to do so. However, he is 42-years old and can only hold off Father Time for so long.
The lack of top receiving options and inconsistent offensive line play aren’t helping matters but I think it is also fair to wonder if Brady is starting to show the signs of decline that most quarterbacks five years younger start to suffer through.
Maurile Tremblay: The Patriots offense lacks deep threats, but the problem is more general than that: they lack short and intermediate threats, too. Julian Edelman is still an extremely effective receiver underneath, but it takes more than one receiver to make a passing offense go. (Okay, two receivers if we're counting running back James White.)
Rob Gronkowski's retirement had a huge impact on this offense. The Patriots could use Brandin Cooks back, as well. I don't think Josh Gordon's departure, however, had a significant impact. He is no longer much of a playmaker, and I suspect the stats pointed out by J. Moyer are, more than anything else, an example of a phenomenon known as "splits happen." (Link 1, Link 2.)
After Edelman, the Patriots WRs currently consist of two rookies, Jakobi Meyers and N'Keal Harry, and former Colt Phillip Dorsett, who has never really caught on in this offense and doesn't appear to have Brady's confidence. Meyers and Harry may have bright futures ahead of them, but the complicated Patriots offense is a difficult one for rookies to thrive in right away.
The player waiting in the wings here is Mohamed Sanu. He came over from Atlanta in the middle of the season and has been struggling through an ankle injury in recent weeks. When healthy and fully incorporated into the offense, he could be the Patriots second-best receiver down the stretch after Edelman. Of the Patriots' current crop of receivers, Sanu would be my choice to add to my fantasy roster.
Justin Howe: Of course, the lack of a deep threat will always hinder an offense to a degree. Still, there are more ways to get downfield than through pure speed. And the Patriots have spent the better part of the last two decades “manufacturing” a big-play passing game.
For years, Rob Gronkowski was the mismatch that defenses had put their focus (and their best inside cover man) on. Before that, it was Deion Branch and David Patten and Chris Hogan, using smarts and technique rather than Gordon-level speed to scheme themselves open down the field.
They didn’t have to be Gordon or Tyreek Hill or Willie Gault to work their way through the soft spots of the deep zones. These Patriots not only lack game-breaking ability: they also lack that 2004 level of polish and technique. Beyond Edelman—who’s a slot specialist only—there’s no longer that stable of heady, instinctive receivers.
Going forward, I’m also expecting big(ger) things from James White. His role in neutral/negative game script is often huge, and the Patriots will see more of that flow down the stretch. And with such a bare cupboard at wideout, White should remain Brady’s second-favorite target quite often. Another game or two of 10+ targets should be in the cards.
Waldman: I think there's a massive misunderstanding about Josh Gordon's skills. I frequently hear implications that he's a straight-line player who wins with strength and speed only. Gordon is a skilled route runner with excellent flexibility for routes way beyond the vertical patterns that people solely associate with his game.
New England's passing game requires more mental/conceptual acumen for processing routes post-snap than any offense in the league. Chad Johnson, Reggie Wayne, and Brandon Lloyd are just a few of the quality NFL receivers in the league who could not handle the on-the-fly adjustments mid-play that are required of Patriots receivers.
Randy Moss handled it like a champ and it's probably why Bill Belichick said Moss was one of the smartest players he ever coached. By comparison, Gordon's stretch of games between Weeks 4-15 when with the Patriots was "the best mark of any Brady-to-receiver combo since 2006," according to Pro Football Focus as shared by NFL.Com's Mike Giardi:
The difference in New England's offensive output with and without Gordon, who played for the Patriots from Weeks 4-15, is a reminder of just how gifted the 28-year-old is. The Pats' production was better when Gordon was active, as they threw for slightly more than 60 yards per game and scored 2.5 points more per contest. Gordon's 18 yards per catch placed him second in the entire league, trailing only then-Bucs receiver DeSean Jackson (now with the Eagles). And Tom Brady averaged 11.3 yards per attempt to Gordon, which is the best mark of any Brady-to-receiver combo since 2006, according to Pro Football Focus. The sample size is small, but that's better than Brady to Randy Moss (9.2) and Brady to Rob Gronkowski (10.3).
The "Gordon is a shell of himself" might actually be a narrative. He's 27, he suffered a knee issue this year, and the Patriots offensive line struggled enough that it likely changed who Gordon could target. However, because Gordon still commands respect from defenses, his presence creates more underneath cushion for teammates.
From a film-based perspective of cause-and-effect, I'm buying the idea that Gordon's absence has hurt the Patriots. It's not the only cause of the Patriots' struggles, which you guys pointed out well, but I will not be understating Gordon's absence. As with the false narrative that Adrian Peterson was a shell of himself during his final season with the Vikings, I think there's a good chance we'll see a healthy Gordon performing well enough in 2020 at the still young age of 28 that folks will have to reconsider the original argument.
As for the Patriots offense moving forward, I'm not enthusiastic about any wide receiver. N'Keal Harry has always had difficulty separating as an outside receiver. His best fit has always been as a slot player. Jakobi Meyers is naturally a slot option as well. Phillip Dorsett? He's a split end who might be better off in the slot. Mohamed Sanu? Yep, you guessed it if you've watched what role he played in Atlanta.
My concern with the Patriots this summer is it had a depth chart filled with slot receivers and no true threats on the outside unless Josh Gordon was returning and Demaryius Thomas made the team.
Brady is statistically excellent when his receivers are wide-open — I'm talking about "college open." When they're tightly covered, his accuracy is in the middle of the pack for the NFL.
The issue with the passing game is that Brady thrives when players are wide-open and his offense is designed for he and receivers to outsmart the coverage mid-play so they are wide-open but his receivers aren't skilled enough to consistently earn the separation Brady needs to succeed to the degree he once did. The offense needs players it doesn't have to make the passing game thrive and it got rid of one of them in Gordon mid-season.
If the Patriots improve offensively, it will happen because left tackle Isaiah Wynn's return allowed the line to place its other starters back at natural positions and the running game improves enough that New England can leverage it for easier opportunities in the passing game. Still, I don't see enough improvement ahead to invest in any of these receivers as a priority pick.
Hot-Not: Playoff Edition
Waldman: Pick three players from this list and explain why they are about to get hot during the fantasy playoffs or they're not worth the buzz:
- RB Derrius Guice
- RB Joe Mixon
- RB Gus Edwards
- WR James Washington
- WR Cole Beasley
- WR Tyler Boyd
- QB Sam Darnold
- QB Ryan Fitzpatrick
- QB Andy Dalton
Howe: Guice was phenomenal despite handling over just 30 percent of Washington snaps last week. He ran over the Panthers in full-on LSU form, and he scored twice on the goal line. He and Adrian Peterson also co-produced just fine. The low snap count is deceptive, as this offense is designed to funnel most of its touches to the duo.
Mixon is also trending upward as the Bengals offense at least works its way back to normalcy. Andy Dalton and Cordy Glenn are necessary pieces in making them fantasy-relevant, and they’re both back in. Mixon has run well all season, and he’s still a volume star with 18.2 rushes plus targets a game. There’s obvious upside in one of the game’s most gifted young backs.
Like Mixon, Boyd benefits from the Bengals’ inevitable bounce-back. Yes, it’s inevitable that they’ll outproduce the Ryan Finley Era. He leads the way in Dalton’s progressions, Against the Steelers two weeks ago, he dazzled with a handful of statement-making jump balls en route to 101 yards and a touchdown. His floor is a bit concerning for a fantasy WR2, but he’s a perfect PPR WR3.
Tremblay: Mixon is not worth the buzz. Derrius Guice's performance last week notwithstanding, it's hard to get reliable fantasy production out of running backs on bad teams. Game scripts are often unfavorable, and touchdowns are rare.
Mixon is a talented running back, but he's simply not in a good position to succeed in 2019. I don't expect Andy Dalton's return to the offense to change that. To be sure, Mixon is still a decent low-end fantasy RB2. I'm not saying that he has no fantasy value. I'm just saying that I don't expect a significant improvement in his fantasy numbers down the stretch -- they'll be about the same going forward as they've been up to this point.
Beasley isn't worth the buzz, either. Beasley's targets have increased over the past couple weeks at John Brown's expense, but I believe that will prove to be an aberration rather than a trend. Josh Allen has improved quite a bit as a passer, but the Bills' passing offense still isn't going to support multiple fantasy starters at wide receiver. In the remaining weeks of the 2019 season, I expect Beasley to be no better than a WR3-flex option.
James Washington is HOT. JuJu Smith-Schuster is ailing with an injured knee, and both Washington and Diontae Johnson should play big roles in the offense going forward. Washington has the hot hand in recent weeks. He's had at least 90 yards and a touchdown in three of his last four games. Washington's connection with Mason Rudolph was overhyped, but Devlin Hodges has found ways to get Washington the ball, and Washington has made multiple big plays with his recent opportunities. It's a trend that could easily continue over the next month.
Hindery: The Bengals offense has started to figure some things out in recent weeks and looks poised to finish strong. The left tackle position was a dumpster fire through the first ten games with rookie Jonah Williams sidelined and Cordy Glenn sitting out. Glenn’s return has been a real boost simply because of how poorly things were before he returned.
Mixon is benefitting from improved blocking and is running with confidence since some changes were made during the mid-season bye week. The ground game that was historically bad through seven games (averaging just over 50 rushing yards per game) has improved to the point where it now at least looks average.
The success rate has leaped 15 percent since the Bengals started to run more gap schemes and incorporated some toss plays to get Mixon to the perimeter. “To run strictly zone plays all the time is probably not realistic," offensive coordinator Bill Callahan admitted a couple of weeks ago. "We’ve definitely put a heavier emphasis on some of the gap schemes and some perimeter game and things like that. It’s helped us. It’s gotten Joe in spots where he’s good and it’s gotten our guys in spots where they’ve been good.”
Mixon is in line for a solid game in Week 14 against a beatable Brown's defense and could be one of the highest scorers in Week 16 against the Dolphins.
Andy Dalton and Tyler Boyd both looked poised to end on a high note as well. The three-week benching seems to have almost taken a weight off of Andy Dalton’s shoulders. It became obvious that he was in no way the biggest problem when it came to the offense. He looked confident and aggressive against the Jets last week and should have success in two of the three playoff weeks.
His return also highlighted the connection he has with Tyler Boyd. Boyd had a 5-59-1 receiving line last week and it would have been 6-103-2 had he not been tackled in the end zone (drawing a flag) on a deep pass from Dalton. His Week 16 matchup against Miami’s defense, which ranks 31st against wide receivers in our normalized strength of schedule metrics looks tasty.
Hicks: The easiest player to make a case for is Washington. Over the last five weeks, he is the number eight fantasy wide receiver. He has been able to produce despite struggles at the quarterback position and his ability to track the deep ball has been a pleasure to watch. Over the next three weeks, he has very good matchups including the Cardinals and Jets. Even if JuJu Smith-Schuster and/or Diontae Johnson is available, it’s Washington who will be the main guy moving forward.
Another player with a great schedule in the fantasy playoffs and with great momentum at the moment is Fitzpatrick. All three of his next opponents are good matchups in the Jets, Giants, and Bengals. He has been a top-six fantasy quarterback recently and unless for some reason Miami goes back to Josh Rosen he projects well as an unexpected fantasy savior.
The last player is a bit trickier as the remainder all carry considerable risk. I will go with Andy Dalton. None of the others are the worst choices out there and I can easily see a case made for any of them, but Dalton now ensconced back as the starter has a couple of games he will be worth starting consideration against the Browns and Dolphins. The Patriots matchup is one you would be unwise to consider.
Best Week 14 Matchup
Waldman: What's the best (most favorable) fantasy game in the NFL for Week 14? Share that match up and answer the following:
A. Outside of obvious starters in a 12-team 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 flex, 1 TE format, who are players not performing to starter levels (you can consider flex-level options) for the entire year that merit a potential start based on your best fantasy game of the week?
B. Outside of known flex plays and options who are performing below starter expectations, which starters in your worst fantasy game of the week remain must-starts?
Hicks: At quarterback, a wild choice to play this week would be Devlin Hodges for the Steelers. The Cardinals are simply awful against the pass, conceding more than 350 yards to opposing quarterbacks in four of their last five games and an average of three passing touchdowns.
At running back the choice for me is Sony Michel. The Chiefs have been unable to stop the run and the only hope New England has of slowing the Chiefs passing game is to keep them off the field. With the Patriots unable to pass the ball reliably at the moment the most obvious course is to persist with the uninspiring Michel this week.
With the Colts losing just about every receiver they’ve lined up this year, Zach Pascal stands alone for Indianapolis as a good choice this week against the Buccaneers. He is a risk week to week but has two hundred yard games amongst the zero, one and two catch performances. It must be remembered that Christian Kirk's three-touchdown game came against Tampa Bay.
Vance McDonald has been unable to break free this year and most people with him on their roster would have lost patience long ago. Fear, not the Cardinals have allowed a touchdown in six of the last seven games to Tight Ends, including Tyler Higbee’s 100-yard game last week and Ross Dwelleys double touchdown effort the game before that.
The Steelers against the Cardinals look to have fantasy points left right and center this week. I’ve already mentioned two choices above that merit serious consideration from outside the expected main options, but players such as Christian Kirk, Kenyan Drake, Diontae Johnson and to an even deeper level Charles Clay all stand to have a good week
Hindery: I view the Carolina versus Atlanta matchup as the most fantasy-friendly of the week. It will be played indoors, so there aren’t any weather concerns and features two teams that have produced and given up big yardage to opponents. It has the second-highest Vegas over/under on the slate and has shootout potential.
Devonta Freeman is a player worth highlighting. He comes into the game as the RB34 (standard scoring) and RB22 in PPR. Freeman has been a player who was tough to start for most of the season if you had any decent alternatives. He is averaging just 3.4 yards per carry and has zero rushing touchdowns.
However, his usage is trending in the right direction. He received 17 carries and also was targeted 5 times last week. He could see even more opportunities and will be in a position to capitalize this weekend against Carolina.
According to Austin Lee’s normalized strength of schedule numbers, the Panthers defense has been the easiest matchup for opposing running backs by a good margin over their last five games. They are allowing just under 40 percent more fantasy points to the opposing backs than those backs typically average.
Carolina allowed 242 rushing yards and 3 touchdowns to Washington’s running backs last week. The defense lost both starting defensive tackles and hasn’t been able to stop the run without them. The recent firing of Ron Rivera isn’t likely to spark a positive reaction from the team. Sometimes the firing of an unpopular coach can provide a temporary boost to a team. It seems Rivera was loved and with the season slipping away, it is fair to wonder about the motivation of the Panthers as they play out the string.
Howe: It’s not sexy, and Vegas doesn’t agree with me (just 45 projected points). But the Dolphins’ date with the likely Jamal Adams-less Jets certainly has my eye. The Jets are probably the inferior team at this point, and Ryan Fitzpatrick is never afraid to test shaky secondaries down the field.
I’m not going to try and convince anyone to start a Dolphins running back, especially in such a tough matchup. And everyone knows about DeVante Parker by now. But most fantasy folks are probably keeping Ryan Fitzpatrick on their benches in favor of their sexier starter. And that could be a mistake, for matchup and game flow reasons.
Fitzpatrick has rebounded to post at least 280 yards and multiple touchdowns in 4 of his last 7 games. The Jets have been shredded recently by Daniel Jones, Gardner Minshew, and Fitzpatrick himself. I’d be somewhat inclined to roll the dice, even in such a crucial fantasy week, if my typical starter is someone like Dak Prescott or Josh Allen in a tough matchup.
You cannot sit Parker right now, regardless of league or lineup size. Parker has dominated the Dolphins’ high-volume pass game over the past 4 weeks, drawing 41 targets (26.3 percent of team throws) along the way. And he’s produced with them, too, averaging 6 catches and 114 yards.
With volume on his side, he’ll work mostly against sixth-round rookie cornerback Blessuan Austin and Ravens castoff Maurice Canady in Week 14. Most importantly, the Jets will likely be without star safety Jamal Adams, whose ball skills across the middle are crucial to the Jets’ porous pass defense. This may look like a case of “too good to be true,” and Parker isn’t easy to trust. But fantasy players living in the now will happily plug him into their FLEX spots to “chase” his top-three WR upside.
Tremblay: I think the best matchup this week is Cleveland against the Bengals, but I don't think the matchup will affect many start-sit decisions. Nick Chubb, Odell Beckham, and Jarvis Landry are all must-starts, but that's true every week. There is no Cleveland tight end worth starting. Baker Mayfield is worth considering, but I don't have him as a top-twelve fantasy quarterback this week even with his favorable matchup.
The only player whom I'd normally not consider starting but whom I'd lean towards starting this week is Kareem Hunt.
The Bengals might not have the worst run defense in the league or the worst pass defense in the league, but in my view, they have the worst overall defense in the league. Kareem Hunt can exploit it both as a runner and as a receiver, and if the Browns get a decent lead, he'll have a favorable game script to work with and will probably be a bigger part of the rotation than usual as Nick Chubb can get a bit of rest.
Worst Week 14 Matchup
Matt Waldman: What's the worst (most challenging) fantasy game in the NFL for Week 14? Share that match up and answer the following:
A. Outside of obvious starters in a 12-team 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 flex, 1 TE format, who are players not performing to starter levels (you can consider flex-level options) for the entire year that merit a potential start based on your best fantasy game of the week?
B. Outside of known flex plays and options who are performing below starter expectations, which starters in your worst fantasy game of the week remain must-starts?
Howe: Despite a few tasty individual matchups, I’m not expecting much from Pittsburgh-Arizona. Some fantasy players will leap at the Steelers for DvP reasons, as the Cardinals are indeed quite porous against the pass (420 yards in back-to-back games). But Vegas only gives this game 43 points, and I see why.
Devlin Hodges is firmly in dink-and-dunk school, and the Steelers ground game isn’t very focused or dynamic lately. Across the field, Kyler Murray looks to challenge a stingy Pittsburgh defense at less than 100 percent, and with only mediocre weaponry. There likely won’t be much volume in this game, and it’s definitely hard to project many touchdowns.
Waldman: Hmm, not sure I agree with the assessment of Hodges, who targeted Tevin Jones and Washington multiple times up the deep rails and deep seam against Cleveland. I was impressed with his aggression so if the biggest reason for not considering Washington is this characterization of Hodges's game, I'd give it a second thought.
Howe: And I was about to get to that. You can’t sit James Washington right now. His floor is perfectly fine, with at least 52 yards in 5 of his last 7 games. And his ceiling is awfully attractive with at least 90 and a touchdown in 3 of his last 4 regardless of which backup quarterback is throwing to him.
Hodges isn’t throwing downfield much at all, but the two were successful last week on four impressive long balls. I’d also play whoever starts at running back — James Conner or Benny Snell — but only to chase volume. It’s not a very high-ceiling backfield right now, but the floor is definitely playable.
Tremblay: I don't like the Saints matchup against the 49ers this week. Michael Thomas and Alvin Kamara are must-starts, as usual, but that's it. I'd lean towards sitting Drew Brees this week, and Jared Cook as well. Ted Ginn Jr is not worth consideration in the flex spot. Latavius Murray should stay on the fantasy bench.
The 49ers pass defense is tops in the league, in my view. The pass rush is outstanding, and the coverage has been very good as well. If you're going to bench Drew Brees at all going forward, it should be this week.
Hicks: Buffalo vs Baltimore could be a stinker for fantasy managers this week. I mean no one is not playing Lamar Jackson this week, but the Bills have allowed very few rushing yards to quarterbacks all season, in fact, they have only allowed 109 rushing yards all season to the quarterback position, with more than half of that coming from two players. They have also held six quarterbacks to under 200 yards in the air.
Coincidentally the Ravens have also only allowed 109 yards rushing to opposing quarterbacks for the whole season and also held six of the opposing quarterbacks to under 200 yards passing. It would be unexpected to see a low-scoring game here, given the players on hand.
At running back the matchups are a little bit better, but still below what you would want in the first week of fantasy playoffs. No one should not be playing Mark Ingram, but guys like Devin Singletary, Gus Edwards, and Frank Gore are harder to recommend unless you are struggling for other options.
At wide receiver, it could get brutal. The Ravens haven’t allowed a 100-yard receiver since week four when Jarvis Landry broke out with 167 yards and they’ve only allowed three touchdowns to wide receivers since then, with only one in the last four weeks. Buffalo has only allowed one wide receiver to exceed 100 yards all year, Devante Parker in week 11. They have allowed only five touchdowns all year to the position with three of these guys being virtual fantasy unknowns in Ventell Bryant, Rashard Higgins, and T.J. Jones.
At Tight End, Buffalo has allowed only two at the position touchdowns and Jonnu Smith is the only guy to exceed 50 yards on a huge play for his only reception of the game. Even better the Ravens have not had a Tight End exceed 28 yards since week five when Vance McDonald registered 34 yards.
