Roundtable Week 1

Photo: Vincent Carchietta, USA Today Sports

Let's examine what we think of players with the preseason over and the season ahead.

• Ezekiel Elliott, Melvin Gordon, and Holdout Advice
• Colts' Offense Post-Luck
• Projecting the Chiefs Backfield Post-McCoy Signing
• Bold Predictions

Let's roll...

Ezekiel Elliott, Melvin Gordon, and Holdout Advice

Matt Waldman: What are you advising fantasy players about Melvin Gordon and Ezekiel Elliott in the following situations?

• For those drafting prior to Thursday night.
• For those who drafted Elliott and/or Gordon.
• For those who are curious about what acquiring either player.

Jason Wood: My position on Ezekiel Elliott has been unwavering. I've seen nothing — even with the latest flurry of new reports — to suggest this isn't progressing like any high-stakes negotiation. Rarely easy, negotiations of this sort are usually contentious and don't get settled until the deadline.

In this case, both sides seem to agree the deadline was this week. Jerry and Stephen Jones continued to say they wanted Elliott aboard and were willing to give him a big extension. Elliott continued saying he wanted to be a Cowboy for life.

And as I thought, this deal got done. He MAY not play a typical snap count the first week, but that does nothing to dissuade anyone from drafting him 1.04 in either standard or PPR formats if you still have a draft between reading this and the Thursday opener.

If you've already drafted Elliott, have no fear. There's nothing to do other than monitor the developments to see if you have to start someone else in Week 1. If you have Tony Pollard, the decision is easy. If you don't have the handcuff, you'll have to throw out your RB3 or RB4 (if you also have a flex position), which shouldn't be a problem unless you went for Elliott and then punted running back for other positions.

In terms of acquiring Elliott, I just don't see anyone selling at a discount. If you were brave enough to draft him, you aren't going to risk letting him go right before a deal is signed. The best-case scenario here is if the contract talks take another public setback, and Elliott misses a week or two. I would THEN approach that owner and see about buying Elliott after panic has set in.

Jeff Pasquino: Treat Elliott like a star with possibly a warm-up workload during the first two weeks and draft accordingly. Taking him at 1.04 or later should be strong value, and if you decide to pass on him early in Round 1, he might not come back to you. At any point in Round 2 (if he slides) he is a steal.

My advice has been to take him at 1.05 and draft 4-5 running backs at a minimum in addition to Elliott, with the plans to start your RB2 and RB3 until Elliott returns to action.

For those who already drafted, some of the prior answers still apply: Use your depth to cover until Elliott or Gordon return to action. That should be a short while for Elliott but could be way longer (and possibly all year) for Gordon, so hopefully, you secured strong depth on your roster.

The only player of the two I would consider trading for is Elliott, but it is very early in the year for his owner to get antsy about the situation. Of course, it never hurts to ask, but do not expect Elliott to come cheap before the first weekend of NFL action.

Andy Hicks: Elliott's upside is so high however that he remained a first-round pick to me, no matter what. Most people with Elliott on their roster will not give him up.

Jeff Haseley: My gut says to stay away from Elliott. I don't feel like he's poorly conditioned, but there is an off-chance that he gets hurt simply due to being in non-football shape. Plus, I don't like Dallas' schedule for the playoffs (at CHI, LAR, @PHI). I believe he will be ready to play Week 1, but I'm not super-glad to have him on my team. You also have to contend with another off-field incident which would surely lead to a suspension. Let someone else have the heartache. Elliott is a good player, but he's not among my top picks this season.

My plan is to trade Elliott after Week 4 or 5. Hopefully, the easier schedule to begin the year results in a Top 5 ranking. Wait for the opportune moment— after a 2-touchdown game or a 150-yard performance, then trade him for two players you can start every week.

Mark Schofield: If you believe the reports out of his camp, he is in "game shape" and ready to play week one. From the Cowboys' side, they are anticipating getting him 20-25 touches in Week 1, so those who either drafted or are anticipating drafting Elliott should rest easy.

And as someone who drafted Elliott early and often— including with the 1.02 in my Scott Fish Bowl draft—I'm resting a bit easier today as well.

Drew Davenport: Elliott always been my favorite target in a standard league, and has an argument for anywhere in the top three in a PPR format. With the offensive line healthier than at this point last year, and a defense that is also on the upswing, Elliott is locked in for a big year. Be cautious about your approach in Week 1, but unless I have a very good option at running back he would be in my lineups. If he comes through with no conditioning injuries after Week 1 he'll largely be out of the woods. At that point, backup Tony Pollard can be sent to the waiver wire absent an indication that his role will be anything other than a handcuff.

Chad Parsons: I would have no problem with Elliott as one of the top two picks in drafts, along with Saquon Barkley. Elliott would be an auto-start in Week 1 if active, which I would expect.

Waldman: I'll close with something Wood broached during an offline discussion that I agree with about projecting schedules. The predictability of schedules at the end of the year is much lower than it is in four-week increments during the year.

I've also looked at Elliott's two years of work against top-12 fantasy defenses against running backs when Elliott had a fully-stocked offensive line and Jason Witten. Elliott faced 11 units with this year-end ranking as top-12 running back stoppers in 2016-17 and only the 2017 Denver Broncos held Elliott to a subpar, non-starter effort.

Last year, the Cowboys lacked Pro-Bowl talent Travis Frederick at center and Witten at tight end and Elliott still produced against the Rams and Eagles. The Eagles were 10th in the league against running backs and Elliott earned 19 carries, 151 rushing yards, 6 catches, 36 receiving yards, and 2 touchdowns during the first matchup and followed up with 28 carries for 113 rushing yards and 12 catches for 79 receiving yards in the rematch.

By the way, the Eagles gave up big totals to Todd Gurley, Saquon Barkley, and Mark Ingram last year—despite the statistical appearance that they were a formidable defense against runners. Even the big, bad Bears were vulnerable to smart and athletic runners. Barkley earned 24 attempts, 125 yards, and 3 catches for 21 yards against Chicago last year. And even the old man, Frank Gore earned 101 yards on 15 attempts.

Elliott is also a smart and athletic runner. I would not be concerned about a schedule point with a low probability of accurate prediction at this point of the year. Elliott is an excellent talent behind an excellent line with superior passing weapons that opponents must take into account. I will live the fear that, in theory, his body hasn't been properly weaponized to play football through practice and raises the possibility of injury.

What do you think about Gordon?

Parsons: I am leery of Melvin Gordon. The odds-on outcome is Gordon waits until later in the season to report and accrue his active-year eligibility, which is a long time to sit on the roster spot, especially in more shallow formats.

Davenport: Gordon remains an altogether different situation. Nothing that has been reported in recent days gives me any hope that this situation has an end in sight. It feels far more likely that Gordon is traded than him ever playing another down for the Chargers. Drafting him is a risky proposition and even when he feels like he's fallen way too far to pass up, I'd still pass. Leave that headache to someone else.

The window to acquire Elliott has obviously passed, but if you are thinking about getting Gordon on your team, do so with the understanding that you need to have other solid options so that Gordon is a luxury. Trading any essential parts of your team, or relying on him as a starter sometime down the road is an ultra-risky play and one I would avoid.

Schofield: Gordon is a much trickier question. In a few drafts, I considered biting as he slid deeper and deeper into the mid-rounds, but even then I passed on him. This seems like a tougher situation without a potential quick ending, so I'd advise players in most leagues to stay away from him this season.

Haseley: Unless he's no more than your fantasy RB3, I'd stay away. The Chargers have a Week 12 bye. If he waits until Week 10 to return to the Chargers (if he returns), you'll basically only have him for the playoff run. I'm not sure we'll see Gordon in a Chargers uniform again. The only value I see is if the Chargers trade him fairly early in the season, preferably before Week 5.

Hicks: Gordon will not get a new deal. His most likely outcome is a return later in the season to get his accrued year and then depart the Chargers at the end of it. He drops significantly down draft boards into the flex territory. If you have smaller rosters, you cannot leave a space open for that long.

Austin Ekeler has a higher trade value than would be reasonably be expected otherwise. Most people with Elliott on their roster will not give him up. Gordon can be acquired, however. If you have deeper rosters and the price is reasonable, sure, take a chance on Melvin Gordon. By Week 9 there isn’t likely to be a better option on the waiver wire.

Pasquino: Gordon's situation looks about as bad as can be. I would advise you remove him from your draft list (if somehow still have a draft before the Thursday night opener), as he could sit out 9-10 weeks or more. That's too risky to draft in the first eight rounds, and someone else will hop on him instead.

Let them take on that risk while you can target Austin Ekeler if you truly like the Charger backfield. Personally I am avoiding the situation entirely, as both Ekeler and Justin Jackson could disappoint and I am not trying to make a deal for Gordon. The smarter play is to focus on Phillip Rivers, Keenan Allen, and Hunter Henry.

Wood: The situation is much different for Gordon than Elliott, and has been for months. Gordon and the team haven't talked for months, as far as we've been led to believe. The team allegedly offered him $10 million per season, and he balked.

Neither side has indicated a willingness to move off their stance. And the body language is far more pessimistic. Ownership hasn't publicly indicated they want him back. The GM hasn't sung his praises. Even Philip Rivers said he's comfortable with the guys on the roster.

Contractually, Gordon's situation is clearer; he can attain free agency next year by showing up for the final six games of the year. At this point, it seems Gordon will hold out until he has to report, and then become an unrestricted free agent.

Since your goal is winning your league, Gordon isn't undraftable because he should be healthy and the workhorse in the final weeks of the season. But many leagues have thin benches that make holding onto Gordon -- and his zero contribution -- difficult. If you're drafting in a league with a deeper bench, I think Gordon as your RB4 (or later) is justifiable.

Waldman: Ezekiel Elliott looks into the mirror every morning and sees one of the best running backs in football. Melvin Gordon is just a notch below, at best, but he also thinks he sees Elliott when he looks in the mirror. Because Gordon is a good talent, it's understandable why he thinks he's in the same range, but he's mistaken and it's going to make this a long holdout.

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Colts' offense Post-Luck

Waldman: Andrew Luck retires in late-August, the team signs Brian Hoyer, and extends Jacoby Brissett's contract that includes $20 million in guaranteed money.

• What's are your fantasy expectations for Brissett and this offense in 2019? Discuss in terms of fantasy floor and upside for key players in 12-team PPR formats (For example, "I believe Marlon Mack will be a high-end RB2, Hilton a low-end WR3, etc.).
• Is Brissett the long-term answer?
• What do these signings portend for Chad Kelly?

Pasquino: The Colts may have seen this coming, but no matter how it happened, Brissett is their starter for 2019. Hoyer was added as the backup, and he is a solid option behind Brissett, but Brissett knows the Indianapolis offense and this team inside and out. While he is much more likely to perform as a fantasy QB2 than as a QB1, he is a serviceable fantasy backup/spot-starter, with more value in 2QB / Superflex leagues.

The fantasy winner is Marlon Mack, as the Colts will ride him as a feature back even more now. Both tight ends (Eric Ebron, Jack Doyle) could see an increase in value, but Luck loved throwing to tight ends more than most quarterbacks. Doyle could be a steal and sleeper for finishing as a TE1, but overall the passing game will be diminished with Luck's retirement. T.Y. Hilton goes from a strong WR2 with WR1 upside to a middle-of-the-road WR2 with some WR3/flex downside risk. Everyone else (Parris Campbell, Devin Funchess) is waiver-wire fodder.

As for Chad Kelly...well, not much to see here. He's the third-string quarterback on a team that had their first string retire and then brought in a new guy to be above Kelly. Not much of an endorsement.

Wood: I would point everyone to my article — The Impact of Andrew Luck's Retirement — which deciphers the Colts from every angle imaginable. Brissett isn't a complete unknown, which is why GM Ballard gave him $20 million in guaranteed money.

That accomplishes a few things: 1) it gives Brissett a vote of confidence, 2) it protects the team from having to break the bank next year when Brissett was due for unrestricted free agency, and 3) it sends a message to the other Colts players that this season isn't a lost one because Luck is gone.

Now whether Brissett is the long-term answer remains to be seen. I don't think Frank Reich or the Colts front office truly knows the answer to that question, yet. We should be confident Brissett in 2019 will be improved from the 2017 version, for many reasons including a much better offensive line and stronger, more disciplined coaching. But that's a relatively low bar, and Brissett hasn't done enough to confidently project beyond 2019.

As to Chad Kelly, we Footballguys seem to love the young passer's skill set. But we cannot ignore his immaturity and how it's almost cost him an NFL future.

He played well in the preseason, but not as well as his boosters would have you believe. There were 30 quarterbacks who attempted at least 50 passes in the preseason. Kelly ranked 12th in passer rating, in spite of playing against plain-vanilla defenses and lots of league backups.

When the team cut down to the 53-man roster, things looked hopeful as Phillip Walker was released. But since then the team signed Brian Hoyer to a 3-year deal with $9 million in guarantees. Whether the Colts value Kelly enough to carry three quarterbacks on the roster is the question. Kelly is suspended for two games, so all eyes on what happens entering Week 3.

Waldman: I'll take friendly exception to the argument that he didn't play as well as someone like myself would have readers believe based on the argument of quarterback rating. That data point doesn't not the context of behind negative plays and after watching Kelly perform, several of his negative plays were due to surrounding talent and not his decision-making or accuracy. However, there's no arguing the point that his past still haunts him and will do so until (really, if) he can string together multiple years of professional behavior off the field.

I think Brissett will have to struggle to move the team during the first 4-6 weeks and the Colts to be 1-3 to 2-4 before making a switch. This is Brissett's first full offseason earning starter reps as an NFL quarterback so there's likely an expectation from the Colts that if he's going to develop into a capable starter, this is the year.

Brissett has a low-QB1 ceiling and a projected median value in the 15-18 range, I'm holding steady on T.Y. Hilton's value as a borderline fantasy WR1 and Marlon Mack as a low-ceiling RB2.

It's nice to say that Brissett likes Jack Doyle because of their past production but he never worked with Eric Ebron. It's a lot like saying you love meat and enjoy hamburgers but you're afraid you won't like an aged and seared tomahawk ribeye from a reputable steakhouse despite never trying one. Ebron still has a high-end TE1 ceiling for me because of Reich's scheme.

Doyle will have mid-range TE2 value because he doesn't stretch the seam like Ebron and most NFL defenses play Cover 3 and Cover 1 which are vulnerable to seam routes, which is an Ebron specialty but not as much for Doyle who sits down under coverage in open spots.

Devin Funchess has WR3 upside but a low enough floor that I am monitoring Parris Campbell and Deon Campbell as possible replacements with WR2 upside if they take the role from Funchess.

Nyheim Hines could be a compelling flex-play in PPR if this defense falters or Brissett turns into a check-down artist and the team isn't losing.

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Projecting the Chiefs' backfield Post-McCoy Signing

Waldman: Carlos Hyde is out, LeSean McCoy is in on a one-year deal worth $4 million, and fantasy players are confused.

Some project this backfield to remain a committee because McCoy is 31 and coming off a bad year and Reid has a history of using committees when he lacks a workhorse-caliber talent or is waiting to see which of his talents emerge--think Spencer Ware's brief rise.

Others project this backfield to have a clear lead option and the rest will be role players because Reid has leaned on Kareem Hunt, Ware, Jamaal Charles, McCoy, and Brian Westbrook in the past.

• How will this backfield shake out?
• Who leads in overall touches and is it a significant lead? What is his fantasy floor, and upside?
• Who are the role players, what are their roles, and what are their fantasy floors and upsides?

Haseley: I don't think the Chiefs know what they are going to get from McCoy, but they at least know that he understands the offense in Andy Reid's system. In my opinion, both he and Williams will split carries with the better man earning the job outright. I don't see a 50/50 split after Week 3 or 4 when the best player emerges. If I had to forecast, I'd say Williams has the edge on McCoy at this time. He is younger, and already has a rapport established with Patrick Mahomes II. The first few weeks of the season will tell a lot about how the carry share will be divided.

Davenport: Boy this is a tough one to call, but I still think that Damien Williams is the guy to own in the backfield. Reid has definitely been one to lean on one guy throughout his career, but most of those guys were really talented players who demanded the ball. As a result, I think that while Williams should lead the committee in touches, I do still believe that it is a committee because he isn't on the same level.

LeSean McCoy was brought in to stabilize their situation with the lack of starter experience they have but I don't think he suddenly seizes the reigns for a feature back role. His efficiency metrics in Buffalo were simply awful last year, and he's on the wrong side of the curve for running back productivity.

This looks like a situation where Reid knows Williams shouldn't handle 275 touches so he needs other options. So I expect Williams to handle about half of the touches each week, somewhere in the 10-15 range, and McCoy will see about 35 percent, while Darwin Thompson is the biggest loser by simply getting change-of-pace or gadget touches and won't really be in the flow if the other two do their job. I do believe in Thompson's talent, but he'll have to push two other veterans out of the way to see a sizable role.

The problem right now is that all three of these backs have massively volatile profiles. Williams could end up as a high end RB2 by season's end, sitting in the Top 12-15 running backs purely on the strength of his receiving profile and playing in a big-play offense with other weapons freeing him up. But his floor is conversely very low. If McCoy comes in and learns fast and Thompson plays too well to keep on the bench, then Williams becomes expendable and could be almost waiver wire fodder at that point.

McCoy has some upside purely on a volume + good offense equation. But I don't think the metrics are lying about him having lost his edge. Even if he sees a lot of touches, I don't see him being more than a low-end RB2 or flex play. His floor is obviously the basement. If Thompson is electric and Williams plays at the same level he has shown then McCoy could find himself in a 6-8 touch role, which makes him completely worthless.

Thompson may be the most intriguing of all the options. Yet while I'm risk-averse, I'm also not patient. Holding Thompson coming into the year without McCoy was a fine strategy. Now it is fraught with downside. He could end up clogging your roster for most of the year and never gain any value. I'd be wary of holding Thompson unless you're solid at the running back spot and can afford to wait.

Parsons: I am bullish on LeSean McCoy as the clear starter soon (maybe not Week 1 per se) with Damien Williams being the change-of-pace and more receiving-centric option. The big picture roster takeaway is Darrel Williams is a drop for now and Darwin Thompson is at least one injury away from interesting outside of moderate depth or deeper dynasty formats. McCoy is a top-18 fantasy option and Williams is a flex consideration to open the season.

Waldman: Drew outlines the situation well, but I agree with Chad in this case and I believe the data lied about McCoy last year because Sean McDermott jettisoned much of the offensive line that made Buffalo one of the best running teams in the NFL in Greg Roman's scheme. While there's no denying that a runner's production is highly dependent on the outcome of his linemen it doesn't detract from my argument that running backs are skilled labor in football.

Runners still have to display a lot more pre- and post-snap diagnostic skill, game management, and technical skill than any analysts credit because they're studying production data and not defining and tracking process data for the position. If they did this, I believe they'd have a much clearer understanding of the proper context for viewing running back talent and value.

Football coaches may not go into the process data at the level I do in the Rookie Scouting Portfolio but they are viewing the game from a process-oriented mindset, which is why Andy Reid decided to sign McCoy after watching the Bills tape. The Chiefs didn't blindly sign McCoy because they're old buddies; Reid saw a player who made the right decisions and displayed the traits and techniques of a quality NFL back that can be seen independent of quality blocking and production.

Does it mean McCoy will be the feature back? I believe Reid is open to it. He has changed mid-season from a committee to a feature role when a back like Spencer Ware and Brian Westbrook gradually outperformed the rest of the depth chart.

However, I believe McCoy has enough to learn about the scheme (and it has enough differences that McCoy told ESPN that he had some homework to do) and his linemen that we'll see Williams as the main guy for at least half of September. McCoy has the most fantasy upside but I agree with Drew that all three backs are volatile. All three of McCoy, Williams, and Thompson have starter talent and could shut out the other two. In their order listed above is my belief who is most likely to do so.

For now, I expect a committee with McCoy eventually earning the majority of first- and second-down duties as a runner and a situational receiver. Williams will be a change-of-pace and third-down option who alternates series with McCoy or gives him a breather. He'll also see red-zone targets from the 20 yard-line to the 5. Thompson will earn situational targets and runs, especially inside the five (the green zone). He might split a five-minute drill role with Williams.

Schofield: Am I allowed to say "I have no idea" and just move on? Because this is approaching the level of trying to figure out the running back room in New England for me.

Waldman: You can say the first part, but give the reset your best shot.

Schofield: Whoever ends up getting the bulk of carries for this offense will have a great deal going for them. Reid's scheme is very running back-friendly. He generates opportunities for his running backs in both the running and passing game. With the speed this offense has on the outside with Tyreek Hill and Mecole Hardman, plus Travis Kelce in the middle of the field, Kansas City is going to see a lot of nickel and dime packages, and as a result lots of lighter boxes.

If you had asked me this question a week ago I would have said Damien Williams would be the focal point, but with the acquisition of LeSean McCoy, I would lean in the veteran's direction. He's familiar with the offense, familiar with Reid and will be in a much better system—with a much better offensive line—than he played with last season.

Hicks: It really depends on what LeSean McCoy has left in the tank. Andy Reid knows him, but the contract is a good one to test him out and see how much fuel he has left in the tank. Simply put, McCoy is the most talented back here. He will get first shot at earning playing time unless a) Age has caught up with him or b) Damien Williams and/or Darwin Thompson outplays him.

Let us not forget that running back-starved Miami did nothing with Damien Williams and let him leave after averaging 3.58 yards a carry in four years. He then wins the No.3 role in Kansas City and through various circumstances, gets his chance at the end of the year and through the playoffs.

He did great, but Reid is in the fortunate position of having a great system where he knows he will get good production from at least two of his backs. I would favor the one-back approach and at this stage, McCoy will be that man. Damien Williams will be on call and Darwin Thompson ready should they need the third option again.

The best man has the job until he doesn’t.

Pasquino: Kansas City's running back crew lacked a veteran presence. With Kareem Hunt's dismissal from the team last year, 27-year-old Damien Williams inherited the starter role, and he was the most senior running back on the roster before McCoy was added.

Williams has five NFL seasons under his belt, but he has never been asked to carry the full workload as a lead back as he has averaged under 50 touches a season across his first five years in the league. Darrel Williams (second season) and rookie Darwin Thompson rounded out a very inexperienced group until McCoy became available.

This, to me, is a classic situation where a veteran can come in and be a leader to the younger group of players and help everyone get better, with the hope of getting a Super Bowl championship. McCoy will be utilized, sure, but Damien should see the bulk of the work early in the season and if he holds up as a solid lead back option, that is how the Chiefs will roll with it for 2019.

I expect Damien to have about 65 percent of the workload, with McCoy and Thompson splitting the rest of it in about a percentage split of 20/10 and a scarce 5 percent for Darrel. That puts Damien in borderline RB1 status (with some upside from RB12, but likely not a top-5 guy), and McCoy could be a flex RB3. If anything should happen to Damien, McCoy and Thompson will likely split the backfield about 50/50 until one "hot hand" emerges.

Wood: Prior to McCoy signing, I was having trouble fully buying into Damien Williams. He looked great in the lead role late in 2018, but was that a case of "last man standing" or an indication Reid finally saw him as a fixture?

As Jeff Pasquino just said, Williams did nothing in four seasons in Miami. Even accounting for last year's late-season heroics, he's still never touched the ball more than 73 times in a season. So maybe we shouldn't be surprised Reid wants other options, but many were shocked because they based their assessment on Williams' preseason ADP.

Some point to McCoy's declining productivity in Buffalo as a reason not to worry about Williams' touches. I disagree. Williams looked like a below-average part-time contributor in Miami but looked like a stud in Kansas City.

So if "it's the system, stupid" why wouldn't we think McCoy's numbers could also improve with the Chiefs? We also have to remember Reid gave him $4 million guaranteed, and then said he has "two starters" in his first press conference following the signing. This will be a committee until one gets hurt.

As to who leads the team in touches? My cop-out answer is whichever back remains the healthiest. But assuming everyone on the roster stays healthy for 16 games, I'll give McCoy the slight edge in touches but a possible 1.5x to 2x increase in touchdowns.

If you haven't drafted yet, my plan would be targeting Darwin Thompson late. His ADP had risen far too high prior to the McCoy signing, but now he's being drafted as a non-factor. That's a mistake. Thompson has the skill set to be the Chiefs lead, every-down back for years to come. He just needs the opportunity. His chances to be a 2019 star have taken a hit, but he's still a great lottery ticket in redrafts and a must-have in dynasty leagues.

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2019 Bold Predictions

Matt Waldman: As I have done for a few years, I made eight bold predictions in this week's Gut Check:

• Patrick Mahomes II will break Peyton Manning's single-season yardage and touchdown records.
• Ezekiel Elliott will have a career year.
• LeSean McCoy will have a top-10 season for fantasy runners.
• T.J. Hockenson will have the best fantasy season for a rookie tight end since Mike Ditka.
• Lamar Jackson will earn 4,000 yards from scrimmage and 25 total touchdowns.
• Dede Westbrook will be a top-20 receiver.
• Matt Breida will out-point Tevin Coleman and earn top-12 fantasy production as a runner.
• Josh Gordon will finally play an entire season without incident.

Call your wildest fantasy-related shot for the 2019 NFL season.

Wood: The San Francisco 49ers will finish last in the NFC West, and Kyle Shanahan will be looking for a new job. The team's massive investment in Jimmy Garoppolo will seem asinine in retrospect, and the team will be faced with the difficult task of accepting mediocrity for a few seasons, or eating the sunk cost.

Waldman: Considering how many X and O's analysts love Shanahan, this will be bold to them. That's a fun one for anyone who is not a 49ers fan.

Haseley: Latavius Murray finishes as an RB1 this season (Top 12) in both non-PPR and PPR formats. The Saints' offense has been moving more and more to a balanced attack, and just two seasons ago both Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram finished in the Top 10 (actually, Top 6).

As an aside, I also like Jason's call on San Francisco imploding. Only a very poor showing by the Cardinals can prevent the 49ers from the NFC West cellar.

Hicks: I will throw in two for the price of one. Jameis Winston and Kyler Murray will be disasters for fantasy managers this year, for different reasons.
Kyler Murray comes in with huge expectations on a new offense with an exciting skillset. Unfortunately, the offensive line is the weak link in the chain and the simplistic nature of the planned offense is going to end up with another disaster in the desert.

Opposing defenses will be brutal on him and his escapability will be put to the test early and often. I expect him to be rattled and confidence to be shattered while the four-wide receiver sets prove to be a folly. Is this Bobby Petrino and that Atlanta Falcons all over again? Maybe not, but the result is likely to be the same.

Jameis Winston is either going to be great or a disaster. The key test will be turnovers, especially in the red zone. If Winston has matured, he has all the tools to be an elite quarterback in this league. If he cannot manage the ball properly, I suspect that Bruce Arians will be brutal and turn to Ryan Griffin, as pathetic as that sounds. I would have more faith in Winston than Murray

Schofield: This is the year my faith in David Njoku is finally rewarded. With Odell joining this Cleveland Browns' roster, Baker Mayfield is going to see a lot of Cover 2 looks in the secondary, trying to get dedicated safety help over the wideouts. That opens up the middle of the field for Njoku to operate. I'm still alive on this hill...

Waldman: And you're providing necessary shade for Browns fans like me, thank you.

Parsons: I will provide three...Kyler Murray is a top-eight fantasy quarterback, Kerryon Johnson is a top-five PPR back, and Leonard Fournette is also a top-five PPR back. I am all-in on these three offenses being massive bounce-back units compared to 2018.

Waldman: I like the Jags and Lions calls, for sure.

Davenport: his may not qualify as wild, but I think Mike Evans will challenge for the WR1 spot by the end of the year in this offense and Derrick Henry has over 1300 yards and 15+ touchdowns.

Waldman: Great job, everyone. Good luck this season, and may all your bold calls come true.

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