Before training camp of the annual fantasy football calendar signal mock and real draft season. Mock drafts are an excellent exercise to work out strategies, get battle-tested, and refine player versus player decision-making as a clock ticks down. My go-to site to quickly join a mock draft is fantasyfootballcalculator.com.
THE SETTINGS
- 12 Teams
- PPR Scoring, 6pt Passing TDs
- Start QB-2RB-2WR-TE-Flex
- Draft Position: 1.04
DRAFT PLAN
Like many years, 2019 feels ripe for waiting until the final rounds (or at least Round 10+) for a quarterback and a tight end in a start-one format. I am planning on going running back with a top-half draft position, like in this mock draft, with the back half of Round 1 more of a discussion between the next tier of running backs versus a top wide receiver. Being flexible with the ratio of running backs to wide receivers based on best player available is key within the opening five or six rounds.
ROUND 1
At 1.04, I felt comfortable with any combination of the Big 4-5 running backs. Alvin Kamara and David Johnson were the two available at 1.04 with Saquon Barkley, Christian McCaffrey, and Ezekiel Elliott the first three off the board. I can see David Johnson having a monster season with Arizona rising back to prominence on offense under Kliff Kingsbury and Kyler Murray under center (read: in the shotgun), but Kamara is already locked in with a strong offense and optimized with Sean Payton. I was open to another running back in Round 2 but projected the best player to more likely be a wide receiver.
ROUND 2
As expected, wide receivers were prominent after my 1.04 selection with six going between 1.05 and 2.04. Joe Mixon and James Conner were running backs I would have selected without much thought at 2.09, but both were gone early in Round 2. Travis Kelce was the first tight end off the board in the mid-second and Todd Gurley also went in said range. My decision came down to Mike Evans (WR7) or Leonard Fournette. The two biggest factors in the decision were looking at positional drop-offs (which I see more mid-round running back options of my liking) and having Evans in Tier 1 of the receiver position. Plus, Fournette had the better chance of the two to make it to 3.04, my next selection by my view. Fournette ended up going at 2.10 plus three more receiver between selections, so the appearance is neither had much of a chance lasting until 3.04 in retrospect. With a balanced approach to the first two rounds, Rounds 3-4 would be even easier to go best player available.
ROUND 3
With the top running backs consisting of Damien Williams, Marlon Mack, and Aaron Jones of note, wide receiver was the easy choice with Amari Cooper outlasting T.Y. Hilton, Keenan Allen, and Adam Thielen from the Round 2-3 turn. If going running back Kerryon Johnson and Derrick Henry were my favorites here, but posting a rock solid tandem of Mike Evans and Amari Cooper was the preferred play.
ROUND 4
Kerryon Johnson or Derrick Henry would have been ideal slipping to Round 4 (like Leonard Fournette in Round 3), but they were gone well in advance of 4.09 plus Josh Jacobs and Mark Ingram of note. Brandin Cooks was a longshot hope from the receiver position and went around the Round 3-4 turn. With no wide receiver to target (I liked Sammy Watkins and Will Fuller but felt either would easily be available in Rounds 5-6), I took Kenyan Drake as my RB2. The reasoning is Drake has a clear starting role and Miami should have plenty of catch-up mode to buoy the receiving-minded Drake in the format. Also, Ryan Fitzpatrick, who I project to be the Week 1 starter, can bolster any comeback efforts or garbage time if his long NFL track record is any indicator for 2019.
ROUND 5
The Round 4-5 turn was kind to my board with Phillip Lindsay and Chris Carson drafted among running backs and Robert Woods, Calvin Ridley, and Jarvis Landry the lone receivers. Sammy Watkins was an easy selection at 5.04 as my WR3, more than a round after Tyreek Hill went off the board as a point of reference. With two running backs (and a host of mid-round targets upcoming) and three receivers rostered, this was a close to an ideal start.
ROUND 6
As simple as Sammy Watkins was in Round 5, Will Fuller was close to an auto-selection in Round 6. D.J. Moore, Mike Williams, Cooper Kupp, and a few quarterbacks (Baker Mayfield notably as QB4) were highlight players to go later in Round 5 and early in Round 6. Rashaad Penny was my other potential selection, but the wide receiver drop-off was steeper than running back and Penny had a decent shot to slip to Round 7. Fuller and Corey Davis were the only options I wanted for my WR4 spot and going a little heavier in the first half of the draft on wide receiver would save a roster spot or two on the position (in favor of more running backs) in the later rounds.
ROUND 7
Rashaad Penny was quickly drafted at 6.10 after my Fuller selection, but a tight run of Jared Cook, Evan Engram, and Vance McDonald around the turn aided my draft board for 7.04. With only two running backs through six rounds and four of my priority targets at wide receiver already rostered, Latavius Murray was the selection here. I am not a handcuff advocate overall, where you intentionally go after the primary backup to your starting running back. However, drafting talented secondary running backs you like independent of the options you already have rostered is a prudent venture. In this case, Murray is an RB2/Flex option independent of Alvin Kamara's status and would be a clear RB1 option if Kamara misses any time.
ROUND 8
Corey Davis was my main watch player from 7.04 to my 8.09 selection. Davis made it and was the pick with Robby Anderson, Alshon Jeffery, Christian Kirk, Dante Pettis, and NKeal Harry being the receivers selected instead. There was a bevy of primary backup running backs available, so securing Corey Davis -- my WR5 and likely last rostered wide receiver -- was the plan. Quarterback and tight end still had plenty of viable options and with a short roster, the waiver wire early in the season is a viable bench or streaming plan.
ROUND 9
Royce Freeman would have firmly been in my crosshairs for 9.04 but was selected at the Round 9-10 turn. Carlos Hyde was my pick, who has RB1 upside in a dynamic offense and could beat out Damien Williams during the season even without an injury. With wide receivers out of play, numerous running backs were projected in the coming rounds for my bench with still more than five quarterbacks I would easily consider strong values available.
ROUND 10
Damien Harris was my next target and fortunately made it all the way to 10.09 with Ito Smith, LeSean McCoy, Jerick McKinnon, and Adrian Peterson some of the options drafted between Hyde and Harris. Harris, like Hyde, could be the primary back without a major injury, but also has huge upside if seeing an extended stretch as the primary back for his offense.
ROUNDS 11-13
Still without a quarterback or tight end, I was firmly waiting on tight end until Round 14-15, but open to a quarterback earlier. However, with all other teams possessing their starter and Cam Newton, Philip Rivers, Tom Brady, Ben Roethlisberger, and Kirk Cousins notably still available, waiting was preferred at quarterback. Alexander Mattison, Peyton Barber, and Kalen Ballage were my running back selections in this zone as many wide receivers were drafted by other teams. Ballage fitting the criteria of a primary backup running back I like independent of previously drafting Kenyan Drake, creating a dual benefit of stashing Ballage on my bench.
ROUNDS 14-15
The quarterback position had a late-round run, squeezing my best-case options for the final two rounds. All but Kirk Cousins were drafted from my above-mentioned list as plenty of teams drafted a second quarterback. Cousins was the selection in Round 14 as he was the last quarterback I wanted outside of drafting one specifically for Week 1 alone and then playing the waiver wire. To close the draft, I missed on Delanie Walker but chose Jordan Reed over Greg Olsen to start the season as a streamer. Both have injuries as their biggest concern and Reed can be a primary target for his team with lesser receivers compared to the environment in Carolina with D.J. Moore and others.
REPORT CARD
QUARTERBACKS: B
While Kirk Cousins was a fail-safe option, opting for a quarterback even a couple of rounds earlier would have bumped this grade up with a Rivers-Newton-Roethlisberger type. Running backs off the board halted around the time I was loading up in Round 10 and beyond, which in retrospect had me drafting against myself to some degree.
RUNNING BACKS: B+
Having a top-half draft position makes an RB1 an easy anchor player in Round 1. Missing on Leonard Fournette (or James Conner, Joe Mixon) in Round 2 prevent this from an 'A' grade. The sheer volume of upside options collected in the mid-late rounds make this a quality haul to have a consistent RB2-3-Flex option throughout the season betting on injuries on targeted depth charts.
WIDE RECEIVERS: A
Only a Brandin Cooks type lasting to my Round 4 selection would have bumped this grade to an A+. Mike Evans and Amari Cooper is an ideal pairing when one can go running back in Round 1. Sammy Watkins, Will Fuller, and Corey Davis all have more risk than one would like for WR1-2 roster spots, but are an ideal trio to populate WR3-4-5 positions, betting on one or two of them to pan out for sections of the season.
TIGHT ENDS: B-
Waiting until the final rounds points to a committee or streaming approach, but the first seven tight ends were gone in the opening six rounds of this draft, far too pricey for my board in a start-one format with no scoring premiums. I did not even look at the position much until Round 10 when almost all the other teams had their starter already. Delanie Walker was my preferred late-round target, but Walker, Jordan Reed (my selection), and Greg Olsen are all in a similar zone on my board to make this a shoulder shrug end to the initial team-build through this mock draft.