I wanted to open up with some quick thoughts on the Thanksgiving Day slate. First of all, I would recommend playing the showdown slates over the Thanksgiving Day slate. It’s more fun to have three different sweats throughout the day than one. You don’t want to be stuck with no more sweats as the day goes on as you hear your uncle’s 12th most amazing story of the day. Additionally, there is just more edge in the showdown slates.
That said it looks like the sites have made the prize pools for the full day slate as the larger contests so if you are playing those a couple of things to keep in mind. Ownerships on three-game slates get a bit out of control so don’t be afraid to fade the chalk. It might seem like certain plays may be guaranteed but if the showdown slates have taught us anything it's that in a small slate chalk busts all the time. You will probably see Michael Thomas as the highest owned player on the whole slate and he is probably the best play. But he won’t be 30% like we see on a normal weekend he will probably be double that. Thomas is one of my favorite DFS players of all time but it is tough to think he succeeds greater than 60% of the time.
Even worse than Thomas you might see players like Jared Cook, Jason Witten, or the Bears defense owned about half the time. These aren’t even slam dunk plays. They are just players that you are going to want to play because the other options don’t feel safe. There is a good chance they will be the highest-scoring players at their positions but they are very unlikely to break the slate. If someone like Dawson Knox scores a TD you are going to be looking good at about a quarter of the ownership.
How to play the chalk
One of the biggest decisions each week is how to handle the chalk on the slate. The chalkiest players are typically the ‘best’ plays on the slate if you are trying to maximize your total points produced. However, if you are looking to win a big tournament you can gain a lot of ground on your competition if you choose a player that outperforms there. If that player is in a lot of lineups you can pass a lot at one time. Balancing scoring the most points and playing against your competition is the toughest part of DFS. In this section, we talk about how to handle the toughest decision of the week. What to do with the chalk:
This article is a little earlier this week to account for the holiday so ownership may change a bit more than normal. Be sure to check our final ownership numbers in case anything has changed significantly.
QB
At quarterback, the chalk player looks to be Patrick Mahomes II. With injuries, byes and primetime games it feels like we’ve barely had a chance to enjoy Mahomes the last couple of months. On top of all that, his main partner in crime Tyreek Hill has been injured in several of his main slate games. Hopefully, Hill will be able to suit up for this one.
We get Mahomes back to the main slate for a great matchup this week against the Raiders. Mahomes didn’t look like himself last week against the Chargers with only 182 passing yards and 59 rushing yards. But he lost Damien Williams and Tyreek Hill early in the game. Coming off a recent injury himself you know Mahomes had to be thinking in the back of his mind that the turf is suspect and he needs to play it safe. One game earlier against the Titans he put up a more Mahomes like score with 446 passing yards and 3 TDs. So I don’t think we need to worry about his health. But watch out for the status of his offensive weapons who are far from safe to suit up.
What we do need to worry about is Lamar Jackson who has a tough matchup against the 49ers. But he scores in a unique fashion, similar to Christian McCaffrey and may be as close to matchup-proof as we have seen in quite some time. If Mahomes ownership stays in the 20% range I will be fading and looking for other options like Jackson at much lower ownership.
RB
Speaking of the matchup-proof McCaffrey he looks to be major chalk this week despite a high price tag as he gets a great matchup against Washington. The Panthers are favored by 10 points which should set up for a great opportunity to run the ball a lot. Since McCaffrey is playing close to 100% of the snaps that will benefit him in the rushing game.
However, it brings with it two different issues. First, McCaffrey gets even more points from the passing game so if the passing game is reduced it might end up being a net negative for McCaffrey. Further, since McCaffrey has been playing so much if they get a big lead it may actually allow the Panthers to give him a few breathers and give some snaps to Reggie Bonnafon. At his elevated price point and ownership, I think I will be underweight the field given so many risks.
WR
Another player we haven’t gotten to see a lot of on the main slate this year due to injury and primetime games is Davante Adams. But since returning from injury in week 9 Adams has seen targets of 11, 10, 12 with 7 catches in each game. He hasn’t been quite as efficient in those games as he has been in the past as he has only reached 100 yards in one of those three games. But I think it is more variance than health. The thing we really need to be paying attention to is that Aaron Rodgers thinks he is fine by getting him so many targets. Who can blame him when the challengers for targets are Geronimo Allison, Allen Lazard, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, and Jake Kumerow. Or is he just targeting Adams more despite health issues because those are his other options?
The problem with Adams is his ownership is so high and he has a price tag that is reasonable but not a steal if he isn’t 100% healthy. Personally, that is too much of a premium for me. I think I will have Adams as part of my GPP plans but will be underweight and wouldn’t be in my single-entry lineup if I was only doing one.
TE
Travis Kelce has had a bit of a disappointing year only topping 100 yards once. But he has scored a TD in three of his last four games and has been consistently targeted all year never falling below six. With Mahomes looking more healthy and some of the other offensive weapons still not 100%, we can certainly bank on Kelce being once again heavily targeted in the passing game. When you get heavy targets and have Mahomes as your quarterback that is a GPP winning recipe.
On Draftkings Kelce’s ownership is likely not to be a big concern as our opponents look to spend up for other chalk players mentioned above. So get your Kelce lineups going, even without Mahomes. Things get a little trickier on Fanduel where Kelce is likely to be the mega chalk because their tight end pricing algorithm has been broken all year. When your price savings are only $2,000 to go down to the likes of Vance McDonald, Mike Gesicki, or Noah Fant there is a problem and it is why everyone will flock to Kelce. At this point, I am not 100% sure what I will do but if he stays in the 30% range, I will probably need to fade that type of ownership. If he starts dropping down in the 20% range, I think you need to eat the chalk as the price savings are just not enough to help your lineup in other ways.
Playing contrarian
If you play too many chalky players you will be competing against too many people to win first place and the odds will be stacked against you. If you play too many contrarian players you won’t score enough points. Remember, the plays are contrarian because most likely there is something wrong with that player. In general, the public is very smart. Finding that right mix is the second hardest thing to do in DFS. In this section, I will try to point you to some of the most contrarian options on the slate with ownership projection below 5%.
Sam Darnold is priced up as much as Jameis Winston on Fanduel and just about on Draftkings too. Since his Week 6 return, Darnold has only topped 300 yards twice while Winston has in every game since week 6. So why would anyone want to play Darnold? The matchup against the Bengals is just so good. The Bengals are allowing 8.2 NY/A whereas the second worst is the Dolphins at 7.7. That’s a significant advantage over the rest of the league. The Dolphins were clear about their tanking aspirations. The Bengals have done it a little more slyly. This is a get right spot for Darnold and his price is going to keep our opponents off him. I don’t hate taking pieces of Andy Dalton on the other side as well in a game that has sneaky shootout potential. Make sure you keep this game as a part of your GPP plans instead of quickly writing it off as a bad game between two bad teams.
At running back there isn’t a lot that stands out as low owned right now. The best idea is to just take a good player that the public isn’t on which is Austin Ekeler. Before his bye, Ekeler received 12 targets in the game down in Mexico. Since the Chargers won that game against a great Chiefs team it is possible, they use the bye to realize that Ekeler simply gives them a better chance at winning than feeding Melvin Gordon the rock. Gordon has never been efficient in his career but even less so this year at 3.7 yards per carry. Since Gordon’s return, Gordon is averaging 56% of the snaps and Ekeler is at 51%. Before Gordon’s return, Ekeler was at 71% of the snaps. If we see Ekeler pick up any of those snaps lost and a few more targets Ekeler could have a breakout type game that wins a GPP.
Tim Patrick has now seen a snap share of 73% and 64% in the last two games since being activated from the IR despite still being banged up with a questionable tag last week. As he gets healthier, we can expect his playing time to continue to rise with such a short wide receiver unit in Denver. In his two games thus far, he received targets of 8 and 3 resulting in 80 combined yards. These stats aren’t going to blow your opponents away but if he scores a TD this week at the minimum price and low ownership, he could allow you to get some of the more expensive chalk into your lineups. It is easier to take a shot now at low ownership before the public finds out who he is.
We will stick with the Broncos/Chargers game for another low owned option at tight end with Hunter Henry coming in at below 5%. Hunter Henry started blazing on his return in week 6 with 100 yards and 2 TDs. He was quickly the chalk of the week the next couple of weeks but hasn’t had another blow-up game and hasn’t won any money for all those players chasing his stats. Luckily that wasn’t us as we know better than to chase stats. Now that the public has forgotten who he is again it’s time to start re-investing. His targets are nearly as consistent as Kelce’s as he hasn’t fallen below 6 since his return. It’s likely going to be cold in Denver and the field might not be in the best condition coming off their heavy snowstorm this week. If a defender makes one slip Henry could put a big play and beat Kelce at a much lower ownership level.
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