Slate Overview
Week 2 was a wild one. If you didn’t have the Patriots and their 37 points you probably didn’t cash in your GPP lineups. Luckily for me, they were one of my highest owned defenses which led me to 8th in the Draftkings Milly maker and +$100K of profits. How you handle your defense isn’t normally one of the biggest questions that we worry about but last week showed that you can’t just ignore the question. This week we have to ask the same question as the Patriots are once again huge favorites. This time against the Jets, led by Luke Falk. Additionally, the Cowboys get the Dolphins who gave the Patriots all those points. Both the Patriots and Cowboys are favored by over 20 points which makes it likely that they will be playing with the lead and their opponents will be forced to make desperation throws that could lead to a pick-six or two like last week. Typically, if a defense is going to be highly owned, I will fade them. However, these spreads are at such obscene levels that you can’t just fade them simply due to ownership. Right now, I will probably have them in around 10% of my lineups which is going to be under the field. If their ownerships creep higher or lower it may change that strategy slightly. I will also be looking for other lower owned guys that I like to put in my lineup to offset some of these high levels.
Chalk
There isn’t a stand out chalk QB this week except on Yahoo! where Kyler Murray is priced super low. The highest owned will likely be Lamar Jackson even though my numbers are telling me Dak Prescott, right now.
Lamar Jackson has started the year on fire topping 300 passing yards in one game and falling just short in the other, which he got 120 rushing yards in. If you played Jackson last year you likely lost money but he is turning the biggest profit this year by far. Will he continue to exceed expectations like this all year? Our own Daniel Simpkins did a great job investigating this over the offseason and there is plenty of evidence saying that he could. In a game that should shoot out with the Chiefs, I think you need to make Jackson a part of your GPP plan unless his hype just starts getting out of control and we are projecting him for 15%+ by the end of the week. I don’t think that will happen so don’t be afraid to use him in your lineups.
By the way, Devin’s rule from last week still applies. Don’t be afraid to load up on Jackson’s opponent, Patrick Mahomes II, either.
Similar to quarterback there isn’t a clear-cut running back that will lead the way in ownership percentage. Ezekiel Elliott looks to have as good of a chance as any to lead the way. Elliott held out before the season until the last possible minute and missed all of the preseason. His first game back the Cowboys were cautious with him as he was likely behind on the playbook. They ended up playing him 54% of the snaps which resulted in only 13 rush attempts. Last week those totals bumped up to 76% of the snaps and 23 carries. I would expect his snaps to increase again this week to the mid 80% range and be at full strength. Against a team that has all but given up on the season, Elliott should find no trouble reaching the end zone, possibly multiple times. If there is a concern it is certainly the big point spread. If the Cowboys get up big early and some of those scores go to the Cowboys pass-catchers Elliott could be sitting on the sideline in the fourth quarter with no touchdowns to show for it. I am willing to take that risk and make Elliott a core play.
At wide receiver, things are a lot clearer. The chalk play should be Nelson Agholor. Agholor emerges as the lone survivor of the Eagles starting wide receivers after Desean Jackson and Alshon Jeffery were injured in last week’s game. Their replacements are likely to be a rookie second-round draft pick out of Stanford, J.J. Arcega-Whiteside and third-year Mack Hollins. Hollins had all of 276 yards coming into this year. In week one when the Eagles were full strength Arcega-Whiteside and Hollins played 7% and 13% of the snaps respectively. Playing at those levels means you aren’t much of a thought during game plans. Agholor is who Wentz is familiar with and will likely keep his eye on him most of the time. However, Agholor’s ownership is projected so high that it is hard to recommend him too heavily. Agholor has only had 3 games over 100 yards and only 1 game with 2 TDs as a pro. He is not likely to kill you if he does well given that limited upside. He could help you a lot if the Lions give him extra attention and shut him down allowing you to pass nearly a third of the field. You should stay under the field here.
UPDATE: It appears Alshon Jeffery is questionable and leaning towards playing. Dallas Goedert was also upgraded with a partial practice on Friday. As such I am expecting the Agholor ownership to drop significantly. Additionally, even if Jeffery and/or Goedert does end up sitting it will be likely late news so Agholor won't have nearly the opportunity to build steam as he would with the early news. That said Jeffery and Goedert are both likely to be somewhat limited leaving Agholor and Ertz with plenty of opportunities at potentially more reasonable ownership levels. I actually like both more with this news. I would also expect Arcega-Whiteside to be the one more effected between him and Mack Hollins. You may be able to get Hollins as a sneaky low owned play with this news.
Agholor’s teammate Zach Ertz is likely to be the top owned tight end for all of the reasons mentioned above. However, Ertz story is a little different. Ertz is used to the extra attention that he is likely to get, he has been getting it for years now. Additionally, Ertz has had 11 games over 100 yards, 5 games with 2 touchdowns and 3 games with both. He has a good chance to be a guy that blows the slate open and you can’t win without him. There are a lot of good tight end options this week so don’t go overboard on Ertz but I think he should be a staple of your entries. UPDATE: See above
Playing Contrarian
Tom Brady seems to be sliding under everyone’s radar this week as they are worried that the game plan calls for running out the clock on the ground and/or sitting on the bench for half of the game. However, what that means is Brady likely threw several touchdowns in the first three quarters that he has already put you in a good spot to win a GPP. The Patriots have arguably one of the best groups of receivers in the history of the NFL. It would be shocking for them to disappoint against the Jets. UPDATE: Antonio Brown was released by the Patriots today which significantly reduces Brady's weapons. However, this may actually be beneficial to a Brady stack as his targets will be more concentrated so I still think this is a good shot to take.
At running back, you can take the same approach. Right now, I have Sony Michel, Rex Burkhead, and James White all at less than 5% owned. If Brady doesn’t throw for a bunch of touchdowns its likely because one of those three had a big game on the ground. Both can even happen if Brady throws to Burkhead or White. If I was only choosing one, I would probably roll with James White as he is the lowest owned of the three and you can stack him up well with Brady. However, if you are playing multiple lineups, I don’t hate playing all three in various lineups. UPDATE: White is inactive due to the birth of his child. You can pivot to Rex Burkhead. Darwin Thompson is another strong option with Damien Williams out.
At wide receiver, I am interested in rookie DK Metcalf. Metcalf has started the year strong seeing 77% and 89% of the snaps in his first to starts to his career. He rewarded the team with a solid 7 receptions on 13 targets for 150 yards over those two games. Last week against the Steelers he looked every bit the part of the first-round pick that so many folks thought he was going to be. I currently show him at only 2% and I will be well over that.
I wrote about Darren Waller last week as the chalk. My how things change quickly in DFS. Last week Waller ended up being owned in the 20-25% range depending on the tournament. He had a solid game where he caught 6 passes for 63 yards but didn’t score a TD. His reward for that is his ownership dropping under 5%. Sure, his price has increased and his matchup against the stingy Vikings that shut down the Packers tight ends last week. But he is still playing nearly every down and the Raiders are still without Antonio Brown. Don’t be afraid to fire up Waller in your lineups.
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