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Our first fantasy football slate of the new year will be a fun one. The January 1st slate features four bowl games and some of the biggest programs in all of college football.
The lack of obvious, chalky plays at both quarterback and wide receiver should lead to a lot of unique lineup builds despite having just four games to choose from. The smaller main slate made it easy to combine the write-ups for both FanDuel and DraftKings. The pricing and roster-building strategy for both sites will be discussed below.
We will start off with a quick positional overview and then go more in-depth with a breakdown of each game on the slate, highlighting both the primary and secondary fantasy options on each team. Based upon pricing differences, a player may fall into different categories depending on the site. When that is the case, it will be noted. For example, you will see Jaylen Waddle (FD) listed as a “primary” option because he is so cheap on FanDuel and Jaylen Waddle (DK) listed as a “secondary” option on DraftKings where his price is higher relative to the other receivers.
Positional Overviews
Quarterback
There is very little separation when it comes to point per dollar projections at the quarterback position from QB1 through QB8 on this slate. Each of the eight is in play to some extent for tournaments and there isn’t a single slam dunk play for cash games. Seven of the eight starting quarterbacks on this slate average 19 or fewer fantasy PPG (FanDuel scoring) this season. Each of those seven is playing in a game where their team is projected to score at least 20% fewer points than their season average. Baylor’s Charlie Brewer (22 PPG) is the only quarterback on the slate averaging more than 19 PPG but he has the toughest matchup with Baylor’s Vegas team total at a measly 17.8 points. None of the quarterbacks project as a strong play, which makes playing a non-quarterback in the Superflex spot a viable option on both sites.
Running Back
Unlike quarterback, running back has some very strong options that standout from the crowd and we will see ownership highly concentrated on a handful of backs. Jonathan Taylor is as productive as any back in the country. He is a cash game lock and top tournament option. Najee Harris has been one of the best backs in the nation over the second half of the season and should have another big game. Like Taylor, he is a top option in cash games and tournaments. Jatarvius “Boobie” Whitlow of Auburn and CJ Verdell of Oregon are the other two backs who stand out as having solid floors and some upside. There is enough value on FanDuel that we probably don’t have to play any of the Georgia backs. However, the value options on DraftKings are few and far between. With each of Georgia’s three backs (D’Andre Swift, Zamir White, and James Cook) priced at $4,100 or less, it is worth taking on the risk despite a lack of clarity on how the playing time will be divvied up.
Wide Receiver
With the possible exception of an Alabama offense led by relative unknown Mac Jones, there isn’t a high-flying pass offense on the slate and we have a lot of very good pass defenses on the other side. As with quarterback, we are left without obvious chalk. With a lot of overlap likely at running back and potentially not much separation between the quarterbacks, our decisions at wide receiver are going to be the key to whether we win or lose on this slate.
Citrus Bowl: Alabama (33), Michigan (25.5)
On what should be a low-scoring slate, this game carries our highest projected total (58.5) and Alabama has the highest team total on the slate (33). Both teams seem motivated to finish their seasons on a high note. No notable Michigan players are skipping the game, which is usually a good sign in terms of overall team motivation. Alabama will be without top cornerback Trevon Diggs and top pass rusher Terrell Lewis, who are skipping the game to prepare for the draft. The Crimson Tide should have all hands on deck offensively, however.
Alabama
Mac Jones has started three games this season and threw for at least three touchdowns in each. His most prolific game was the season finale against Auburn, in which he threw for 335 yards and 4 touchdowns. He also had a pair of back-breaking interceptions. If the Alabama defense handles the Michigan offense, we could see a conservative, run-heavy approach to protect Jones and try to avoid turnovers. To have a big fantasy game, Jones will need to be pushed by Shea Patterson on the other side. If this game does turn into a shootout, Jones has the highest ceiling on the slate because of how talented the Alabama receivers are. Jerry Jeudy, Devonta Smith, Henry Ruggs, and Jaylen Waddle are each likely first round NFL draft picks either this spring or next. These four each have elite explosiveness. They can take a short pass the distance or beat defenses over the top on deep bombs. The big-play potential makes each of the four worthwhile tournament options. The receiving depth and lack of guaranteed volume makes each relatively risky plays and tough to trust in cash lineups, as well.
The obvious play from the Crimson Tide is running back Najee Harris. Since mid-season, he has arguably been the nation’s top back. In his last six games, he scored 13 touchdowns. He had at least two touchdowns in five of the six games. In addition to being a talented runner, Harris is one of the smoothest receiving backs in college football, as well. He is averaging 11.3 yards per reception and has caught 7 touchdown passes this season. Michigan ranks 8th-best nationally against the run, allowing just 3.1 yards per carry on the season. However, against top opponents, the run defense has been gashed. J.K. Dobbins ran for 211 yards and 4 touchdowns (plus 49 receiving yards) and Wisconsin rushed for 359 yards and 5 touchdowns in an early-season matchup. Against Michigan’s undersized front, Alabama’s elite offensive line should be able to get a push and pave the way for Harris to have a big game.
Primary: Najee Harris, Jaylen Waddle (FD)
Secondary: Mac Jones, Jerry Jeudy, Devonta Smith, Henry Ruggs, Jaylen Waddle (DK)
Michigan
Michigan’s team total of 26.8 is only about seven points lower than their season average (33 PPG), so this isn’t quite as tough a spot for the Wolverines as it may appear at first blush. Shea Patterson has quietly broken some Michigan passing records, including the highest career passer rating and highest career passing yards per game. Patterson has been playing his best football of late. In his first 22 starts for the Wolverines, he never passed for more than 300 yards. In his next three, Patterson topped 300 in each game. He had 384 passing yards and 4 touchdowns against Michigan State, 366 yards and 5 touchdowns against Indiana, and 305 yards and 1 touchdown against Ohio State. Alabama’s pass defense was torched against LSU but has otherwise been excellent, ranking top five in yards per pass allowed (5.9) and allowing just under 190 passing yards per game. Rotational receiver Tarik Black has entered the transfer portal, which leaves three clear starters for the Wolverines and should concentrate the volume a bit more. Slot receiver Ronnie Bell leads the team in receptions (43) and receiving yards (694) but has only scored once all season, which makes him a slightly better play on DraftKings. The big outside receivers, Nico Collins (7 touchdowns) and Donovan Peoples-Jones (6 touchdowns), have been the go-to red zone targets. Each of the top three are in play for tournaments on DraftKings. The pricing is more favorable on FanDuel, where Peoples-Jones and Collins are strong WR3 options.
With the injuries Alabama has suffered at the linebacker position, the Tide are more vulnerable than normal against the run. It is unclear whether the Wolverines have the running game to take advantage, however. Top backs Hassan Haskins and Zach Charbonnet are averaging just 5.4 and 4.7 yards per carry, respectively and have averaged a combined total of 100.3 rushing yards per game. It is hard to trust either in a game where Michigan enters as a decided underdog.
Primary: None
Secondary: Shea Patterson, Donovan Peoples-Jones, Nico Collins, Ronnie Bell (DK)
Sugar Bowl: Georgia (20.5), Baylor (16.5)
Of all the teams on this slate, we have to be most worried about Georgia’s motivation. At least 15 scholarship players will be out for this bowl matchup. Both starting offensive tackles have decided to skip the game to prepare for the NFL Draft, which will make things difficult offensively. The top two running backs will be either out or limited and two of the top three wide receivers won’t play either. Contributors on defense, including a 3-year starter at safety, will be out as well. The absences have caused the line to swing in Baylor’s favor. The Bears are now only 4-point underdogs in what could be an ugly, slow-paced game that has a Vegas total of just 41 points.
Georgia
Jake Fromm has suffered through a disappointing junior season, despite leading the Bulldogs to an 11-2 record. He has failed to complete 50% of his passes in four straight games and threw a pair of costly interceptions in the SEC Championship game against LSU. Fromm hasn’t shown much fantasy upside, averaging 201 passing yards and 1.7 passing touchdowns per game. He ranks near the bottom in terms of quarterback options on this slate, though he is still somewhat in play for tournaments because there aren’t any other slam dunk QB options and his price is right. Fromm’s job won’t be any easier given that he is likely to be playing with a bunch of backups. No. 1 receiver Lawrence Cager and No. 3 receiver Dominick Blaylock are both out for this game. Backup Kearis Jackson is out as well. True freshman George Pickens should be the go-to option in the passing game. He has shown some immaturity and ended his season on a bit of a down note given that he was suspended for the first half of the regular season finale for a violation of team rules and then suspended for the first half of the SEC Championship game due to a fight in the previous game. Pickens has some upside in this spot given his talent level and the lack of competition for targets. Demetris Robertson is in line to move up to the WR2 spot but it is hard to get excited about his prospects. He has scored 10+ points on FanDuel just one time all season.
Figuring out the Georgia running back situation could be the key to the slate, especially on DraftKings where Georgia’s top three backs are dirt cheap. D’Andre Swift is the star of the backfield and will be an early-round NFL draft pick in the spring. He has proven all he needs to at the college level, which is one reason his playing time in this game could be very limited. Swift is nursing a shoulder injury and, though he is not skipping the game like some of his other draft-eligible teammates, it seems like he is not going to go out there and play a workhorse role. He may play a very limited role, like he did in the SEC Championship (only five touches). With backup Brian Herrien out, it opens the door for a pair of second-year backs to both have big roles. Zamir White was a blue-chip recruit who missed his freshman year with an ACL injury. He has been decent in a backup role and has a chance to stake his claim on leading this backfield next season if he can have a big bowl game performance. James Cook should have a solid role as well. He is a smaller back who is very good in the passing game. In fact, he has almost as much yardage through the air (132 yards) as he does on the ground (176). He should see a handful of targets, which gives him a decent point per dollar floor on DraftKings. This is the spot we want to really focus our attention when it comes to late-breaking news. If we get confirmation that Swift will be limited or even held out, White and Cook become two of the strongest options on the slate on DraftKings. If we get some indication that Swift will get close to his normal workload, then he would jump to the top of the rankings.
Primary: Zamir White (DK), James Cook (DK)
Secondary: George Pickens, Zamir White (FD), James Cook (FD)
Baylor
This is a tough matchup for Baylor. Georgia’s defense ranks in the top-five in most metrics. The Bulldogs are allowing just 4.2 yards per play and 12.1 points per game to opponents. On a bigger slate, we could safely ignore the Baylor offense given the implied team total of just 16.5 points. On this small slate, we can at least consider some of the top options in the passing game for tournaments. Of the quarterbacks on this slate, Charlie Brewer has had the best fantasy season. He has put up 2,950 passing yards and 20 passing touchdowns and added another 10 touchdowns as a runner. In terms of playing style, he has a lot of similarities to Sam Ehlinger, who lit up this same Georgia defense in the Sugar Bowl last season. If the Bulldogs don’t show up ready to play, Brewer could be the top-scoring quarterback on the slate. He is very much in play for tournaments. Denzel Mims is the clear No.1 receiving target and is also strongly in consideration despite the tough matchup. Mims has caught 61 passes for 945 yards and 11 touchdowns on the season. Tyquan Thornton has emerged as the clear No. 2 target and has the speed to score from distance. He is in play, though the pricing isn’t favorable given the difficulty of the matchup. R.J. Sneed, Chris Platt, and Josh Fleeks get some looks but don’t have enough volume to trust. If you are desperate for savings on DraftKings, you could do worse but ideally you could structure your roster in a way that allows you to bypass such low-floor plays.
Even on a small slate, it feels like we can ignore the Baylor running game. There is a three-way split in touches between JaMycal Hasty, John Lovett, and Trestan Ebner. None of the three average more than 10 touches per game. Brewer also leads the team in rushing touchdowns, with none of the backs scoring more than seven.
Primary: Denzel Mims
Secondary: Charlie Brewer, Tyquan Thornton
Rose Bowl: Wisconsin (27.5), Oregon (24.5)
Everyone of note is playing in this game and there is no concern at all that either of these teams will show up unmotivated to play in the Rose Bowl. It is a huge game for both programs.
Wisconsin
As is typical with Wisconsin quarterbacks, the numbers aren’t anything special for Jack Coan. He has thrown for 2,539 yards and 17 touchdowns and scored 4 rushing touchdowns. He has thrown for more than 232 passing yards just three times in his career. There isn’t much of a ceiling for Coan but he is still at least somewhat in play on the slate given his pricing. If no other quarterbacks have a big fantasy game, rostering Coan and spending the extra cap space he affords you wisely could be the move. Quintez Cephus is one of the better plays on the slate at wide receiver, where he feels a bit underpriced given his role. Cephus has 52 catches for 842 yards and 6 touchdowns. He has upside in GPPs because he is used primarily as a deep threat and has shown play-making ability to go up and get it in contested catch situations.
Jonathan Taylor is a near lock on this slate. He is an elite talent, handling a huge workload, and running behind an elite offensive line. Taylor has 323 touches on the season for 2,118 yards and 26 touchdowns. Oregon has been stingy against the run, allowing just 3.4 yards per attempt. However, they have been vulnerable against top backs. Even in a convincing win over Utah in the Pac 12 Championship, the Ducks allowed 170 total yards and a score to Zach Moss. We should see a similar performance from Taylor in this spot.
Primary: Jonathan Taylor, Quintez Cephus
Secondary: None
Oregon
The Rose Bowl will be huge for the NFL draft stock of senior quarterback Justin Herbert. Herbert looks the part with great size, a huge arm, and plus athleticism. He has put up big passing numbers on the season with 3,333 yards and 32 touchdowns. Both totals are the highest on the slate. However, despite the solid numbers, Herbert has come up short at times against top competition. The Wisconsin pass defense is a tough nut to crack, ranking top-15 in yards per attempt and yards per game allowed. Add it all up and it is tough to trust Herbert as a core play. However, he clearly has one of the highest ceilings on the slate given his talent and the weapons at his disposal, which makes him a strong GPP option. Johnny Johnson emerged down the stretch as the go-to pass catcher. He is fairly priced on DraftKings but remains a strong bargain on FanDuel. Juwan Johnson, Jaylon Redd, and Mycah Pittman are the three other receivers who should receive extended run. There is some modest upside here for each of the secondary receivers if Herbert has a good game.
The top play for the Ducks is star running back CJ Verdell. He leads the way with 1,171 rushing yards and 8 touchdowns. He has had three huge games this season and is coming off of a monster performance against Utah (208 yards and 3 touchdowns). Verdell probably fits best as a GPP option because his red zone usage is hit or miss. Prior to the 3-touchdown game against Utah, Verdell went five straight games without a touchdown. He would help get Oregon into the red zone and then get vultured by backup Cyrus Habibi-Likio, who leads the team with 10 rushing touchdowns. Due to the lack of consistent goal line work, Verdell ranks behind Taylor, Harris, and Whitlow on the slate. However, it isn’t a bad idea to slot a running back into the Superflex spot on either site, which makes Verdell one of our core plays.
Primary: CJ Verdell, Johnny Johnson
Secondary: Justin Herbert, Juwan Johnson
Outback Bowl: Auburn (30.3), Minnesota (23.3)
This may be the best game on the slate from a fantasy perspective. Each of these teams is led by young quarterbacks who should be locked in and trying to set the stage for big 2020 seasons. We also have some wide receivers on both with near-guaranteed volume, which is not an easy thing to find on this slate. Minnesota will be without linebacker Kamal Martin who is dealing with an injury and decided to sit out to try to get fully healthy for the NFL combine. Minnesota’s talented right tackle Daniel Faalele is questionable with an injury.
Auburn
True freshman quarterback Bo Nix has already set season records for completions, touchdown passes, and passing yardage by a freshman for Auburn. He looks like one of the top QB options on the slate given the favorable matchup, his dual-threat skill set (7 rushing touchdowns), and some projected growth as he finishes up his first season. Nix played a brutal schedule (five top-13 opponents) and struggled at times but showed flashes of potential stardom and mostly weathered the storm. Seth Williams is far and away the top receiving target on the team with 801 yards and 8 touchdowns. No other pass catcher has been even half as productive. Speedster Anthony Schwartz is the No. 2 and has some tournament upside but he is hard to trust given the lack of consistent volume. The passing matchup looks very favorable for Auburn. Minnesota has given up big passing numbers to some mediocre Big 10 passing offenses (396 yards against Purdue, 339 versus Penn State, 268 to Iowa, and 296 to Wisconsin). Nix and Williams could have big games. Both rank near the top of the board as GPP options and are top options in cash games as well.
Now that Jatarvious Whitlow is back healthy, we again have some clarity on the Auburn backfield. We should expect Whitlow to have a solid workload. In the seven games he was most healthy this season, he had at least 18 touches in all but one of them (a blowout against Mississippi State). Behind Najee Harris and Jonathan Taylor, Whitlow may be the best of the rest at the running back position.
Primary: Bo Nix, Jatarvious Whitlow, Seth Williams
Secondary: Anthony Schwartz
Minnesota
Minnesota may be forced to take a pass-heavy approach in this game, especially if the Gophers fall behind early. Auburn has one of the best run defenses in all of college football, led by unanimous All-American defensive tackle Derrick Brown. Sophomore quarterback Tanner Morgan has had a strong season, throwing for 2,975 yards and 28 touchdowns. He will have a good shot to throw for 200+ yards and 2+ touchdowns against Auburn. To prove a fantasy asset, he will have to put up big numbers as a passer because he will likely be a net-negative as a runner. With sacks counting as negative rushing yards in college football, Morgan has -59 rushing yards on the season. Against Auburn’s loaded defensive line, we could see Morgan lose a couple fantasy points on sacks and he isn’t likely to make up for those losses as a runner. If we want exposure to the Minnesota passing game, it may be easiest to just target one of the top receivers. Both Tyler Johnson and Rashod Bateman have over 1,100 receiving yards on the season and both have scored 11 touchdowns. No other Minnesota receiver has 400 yards and the Gophers rarely throw to the backs or tight ends, so Johnson and Bateman really dominate in terms of market share of receptions, yards, and touchdowns.
The running game is messier. Rodney Smith (1,156 total yards and 8 touchdowns) is the lead back but both Mohamed Ibrahim and Shannon Brooks have had consistent roles. Against a stout Auburn front, Smith is only a mediocre fantasy play given the other backs on this slate who have less competition for touches and better matchups.