Photo: Isaiah J. Downing, USA Today Sports

August is one of the most challenging months on the dynasty calendar. We are hit with an avalanche of information. Making our dynasty teams better relies heavily on our ability to figure out what pieces of information are really important and how much the news should cause us to change our previous player valuations.

Since big value swings are going to be common at this time of year, the focus of this article is on how the very early news from the first week or two of camp impacted the value of specific players. In the write-ups below, you will notice numbers in parentheses following each players name. Those numbers represent the change in dynasty value for the specific player since the July dynasty trade value update. For example, you will see Tyreek Hill (+11). The +11 indicates the change in his dynasty value since the last update — Hill’s dynasty value risen from 24 to 35.

The dynasty trade value chart is tailored to 12-team PPR leagues a starting lineup of one quarterback, two running backs, three wide receivers, one tight end, and one flex. It now also includes values for Superflex leagues. The chart is meant to serve primarily as a guide for trades but can also be a great resource during startup drafts. If the players and picks on each side of the trade offer add up to approximately the same number, the trade would be considered even. If you receive a trade offer that sends you players with a higher total number value than the players you are giving up, the offer is worth strongly considering. Each league is different, so pay close attention to the scoring and starting roster requirements specific to your league and adjust accordingly. A trade value chart for 2020 rookie picks is also included below the four positional breakdowns.

Quarterback

Minor value changes

We’ll keep the quarterback section short this month. There was very little real value movement at the position, with no quarterback gaining or losing more than 2 points worth of trade value over the last month.

Some quarterbacks gained a point or two of Superflex value just based upon favorable training camp reports or positive injury news. Deshaun Watson (+2) gets a small value boost due to a strong camp and the good health news on each of his top three receivers. Kyler Murray (+2) seems to be meeting or exceeding early expectations and sees his value continue to rise. Don’t be surprised if that continues to be the case. Cam Newton’s (+2) shoulder is less of a concern than it was a month ago, so his value gets a small bump. After some concerning reports out of OTAs, the training camp reports on Lamar Jackson’s (+1) performance as a passer have been encouraging. Jackson is one a quarterback to monitor closely because he could see a fairly significant increase or decrease in dynasty value based upon his performance this month.

Nobody lost significant value but injury concerns and mediocre early training camp reports slightly dinged the trade value of a few guys. Andrew Luck’s (-2) calf injury just keeps lingering. It probably won’t be a big deal but we thought the same thing about his shoulder injury at this time a couple of years ago. The added uncertainty is enough to move him just below Deshaun Watson and Baker Mayfield. The early feedback on and Hall of Fame Game performance by Drew Lock (-2) wasn’t encouraging. At this point, he probably shouldn’t be rostered in single quarterback leagues. The excitement about Dwayne Haskins (-1) seems to be waning just a bit. He was listed third on the opening depth chart and doesn’t yet seem to be distancing himself from Colt McCoy or Case Keenum in the quarterback competition. Plus, his starting left tackle doesn’t look like he is going to show up, making the line a major question mark. That is on top of the Washington receivers being the worst in the league. It might take Haskins longer than most expected to become a fantasy-relevant player.

Running Back

Holdout fallout

Melvin Gordon (-12) has seen his value drop more than any player at any position over the past month. A protracted holdout deep into the season feels more likely than not at this point. His dynasty outlook takes two big hits. First, it looks like he could miss half of one of his prime seasons. Instead of a guy with a mid-1st round redraft ADP, he is now a 2nd or 3rd-rounder. So there is an obvious short-term negative impact. Second, the recent news hurts Gordon’s long-term outlook as well. Odds of a long-term extension to stay with the Chargers in 2020 and beyond are lower now than they were a month ago. That hurts because the Chargers boast one of the league’s most running back-friendly offenses. Last season the Chargers running backs combined for 2,755 total yards, 107 receptions, and 22 touchdowns. It will be hard to find as favorable a situation if he leaves in free agency.

Justin Jackson (+5) and Austin Ekeler (+5) both get double value boosts. Their short-term outlooks improve significantly should Gordon miss extended time. Ekeler has already seen his redraft ADP rise by two rounds. Jackson has gone from not being drafted in most redraft leagues to a popular mid-round pick. The second boost comes in long-term outlooks. If Gordon does end up holding out, the weeks he is out will provide a real chance for the duo to prove they can handle the job. If the Chargers can win with Jackson and Ekeler, the two could pair up in the backfield into 2020 and beyond

Ezekiel Elliott (-2) sees a much smaller drop in value. The uncertainty regarding when he will show up and if he can get a long-term deal done is certainly a negative. However, this one feels different than the situation with Melvin Gordon or the Le’Veon Bell fiasco last year. The Cowboys appear willing to pay top money for a running back and it doesn’t seem the sides are all that far apart. If this thing starts to drag and whoever has Elliott in your league starts getting nervous, it might be a good time to try to buy low (relatively speaking).

Tony Pollard (+5) is a player to watch and the guy who could really capitalize should things with Elliott get messy. The 4th-round rookie has had a strong camp, so he deserves more dynasty love on his own merits above and beyond any boost he may get from the Elliott holdout.

Rookies Rising

We should take glowing reports early in training with a grain of salt but it is impossible to ignore the hype David Montgomery (+4) and Miles Sanders (+4) are building in Chicago and Philadelphia, respectively. Perhaps most interesting is how much the two rookies have impressed their teammates on the other side of the ball. "He's a dog," Bears safety Eddie Jackson said of Montgomery. "He's got it early. A lot of guys don't have it early, but he's got it early. Takes coaching and installs it into the game. He's the truth. He's going to be something special." The same glowing reviews were coming via Philadelphia’s veteran defenders regarding Sanders. "That boy is a beast, man. You're going to see. Oooh, I like him," defensive end Brandon Graham said. "I don't want to give out too much. I'm going to let him be a surprise to some."

If you drafted Montgomery or Sanders in rookie drafts, you should be feeling great about those picks.

Seattle Switch

There was a belief by some that Rashaad Penny (-3) would be able to take the lead role away from Chris Carson (+3) this season. Penny had the draft pedigree and generated positive headlines while Carson missed OTAs with an injury. Thus, dynasty owners were valuing and drafting Penny ahead of Carson. However, early returns from training camp are Carson is still the main man. Until we actually see Penny displace Carson, Carson is the more valuable dynasty asset.

Moves in Miami

It looks like the Dolphins are going to use a committee this year with Kalen Ballage (+2) handling the early downs and Kenyan Drake (-4) remaining in a third-down role. It is hard to get too excited about either player long term but Ballage gets a small boost while Drake sees his dynasty stock slip further.

Separation in Atlanta

We knew Devonta Freeman (+3) would be the #1 but the expectation was that someone, perhaps Ito Smith (-1), would step into the Tevin Coleman role and play 30-40% of the snaps. That may not be the case. The battle for #2 is wide open and Atlanta looks like it will lean on Freeman more heavily this season than in past years.

Wide Receiver

Hill is back

Tyreek Hill’s (+11) value has bounced back even quicker than expected. He has regained nearly all of dynasty value, which probably makes sense since he isn’t in a materially different position than he was before the off field issues. Hill, Mike Evans, and Amari Cooper seem to be in their own tier, just a bit behind the top-5 at the position but opening up a small value gap between themselves and the next group. Hill is a top-10 dynasty receiver. His return to more solid footing takes away some opportunity and upside from Sammy Watkins (-2) and Mecole Hardman (-2).

Future #1?

JuJu Smith-Schuster (+2) finished approximately 40 fantasy points behind the WR1 (DeAndre Hopkins) last season in PPR scoring. If he can close that gap even a little bit and score within 1-2 PPG of the top wide receivers, he will probably be the dynasty WR1 at this time next year. Hopkins will be 28-years old at the start of the 2020 season while Smith-Schuster will be just 23-years old. It is pretty incredible to look at what Smith-Schuster has already accomplished and realize he is still only 22-years old, younger than many of the top rookies. Expect the age angle to become an even bigger talking point in the WR1 dynasty debate moving forward.

2019 Wide Receivers=2018 Running Backs?

There is some hyperbole in the above comparison — the 2018 running back group was excellent and the 2019 receiver class is just average. However, the analogy could prove valuable when trying to figure out how to value the top rookie receivers. Plus, there are real similarities when considering the similarities in terms of positional depth. Last year, the advice here was to invest in the rookie running back class even though we knew a few of the group would bust because the few guys who hit would likely hit big. We are seeing that play out with Kerryon Johnson and Nick Chubb already seeing big value boosts.

Early in the offseason, the advice here was to accumulate as many rookie picks as possible — especially in the second round —and get as many bites at the rookie wide receiver apple as possible. The thought was that from a historical odds perspective, at least a few of the 11 receivers picked 67th overall or higher would end up developing into top dynasty assets. If you could land a few of the 11, you would increase your odds of having one pick hit bid.

Now, the focus has to be on figuring out as quickly as possible which guys we think are most likely to hit their ceiling and which have a lower shot of hitting. This early information and buzz from training camps usually has real predictive value and sharp dynasty owners will want to try to gather and process as much of these tidbits as possible and be aggressive in adjusting how you value specific players. We saw this a couple of years ago when John Ross struggled in training camp while Kenny Golladay and JuJu Smith-Schuster quickly exceeded expectations. There was a window to sell high on Ross and buy low on Golladay and Smith-Schuster and there will be similar opportunities this month.

Let’s take a quick look at the early returns on the 11 wide receivers drafted between pick #24 and #67 and dig in on their dynasty values:

Marquise Brown (0:) Brown only recently returned to practice so it is impossible to make any meaningful judgments at this point. His teammate, Miles Boykin (+3) looks like he is on his way to locking down a starting job and the expectation is that Brown will join him there. If he can lock that role down in August, he should see a small rise in value by opening day.

N’Keal Harry (-3): Harry still remains a valuable dynasty piece but now might be the time to try to sell high if you aren’t fully sold on him. The training camp reports haven’t been great. Beat writers have even opined that Harry has been outplayed by an undrafted rookie, Jakobi Meyers (+4).

Deebo Samuel (+1): It looks like he has locked down the starting X-receiver job, which is about the best news one could have hoped for at this point.

A.J. Brown (-2): Brown has been injured, so we can’t make any early judgments. However, with both Corey Davis and Adam Humphries having strong camps, concerns about Brown’s chances of seeing enough targets in the near future to make a fantasy impact have grown.

Mecole Hardman (-2): Hardman is generating a bit of buzz in camp but his slight loss in value is all about the return of Tyreek Hill. As long as Hill, Travis Kelce, and Sammy Watkins are around, it will be hard for Hardman to get regular opportunities.

J.J. Arcega-Whiteside (0): Arcega-Whiteside seems to be having a solid but unspectacular camp. He has locked down the #4 WR job.

Parris Campbell (+3): If you have been following fantasy news at all, it was hard to miss the quote from Frank Reich about Campbell. “The two plays he made in the red zone today weren’t hybrid, gadget, slot receiver plays,” Reich said. “They were legit, NFL, ‘I’m going to be a stud receiver’ plays.” Campbell is exactly the type of player who we want to target in trades before his value leaps up any further.

Andy Isabella (-3): Reports on Isabella in camp were mixed before he suffered a minor knee injury. The bigger issue is the emergence of rookie 6th-rounder KeeSean Johnson (+4), who has been the best of Arizona’s trio of rookie wide receivers.

D.K. Metcalf (0): Metcalf saw his value rise early based upon some glowing reports in OTAs. It has held steady with some positive moments in camp, though an injury has slowed his progress.

Diontae Johnson (0): Donte Moncrief (+2) has emerged as the favorite for the #2 role but Johnson has been at least as good as James Washington (-4), so his value holds steady. Johnson could emerge as the #2 next offseason.

Jalen Hurd (0): Hurd has had a quiet camp but is worth stashing considering the possibility he makes the conversion to tight end next offseason.

Tight End

Zach Ertz losing targets?

The dynasty value of Zach Ertz (-2) has slid a bit this summer. We are seeing it both in terms of dynasty ADP and in some dynasty trades where he is sometimes being moved for relatively modest returns. Ertz is coming off of a monster season and is only 28-years old, so let’s not overreact. However, by all accounts, Dallas Goedert is going to be on the field more and is deserving of a boost in targets. DeSean Jackson is going to take some targets away as well. For now, there is still a “Big 3” at the position, but it is possible we will soon be looking at a Big 2 with Ertz at or near the top of the next tier instead.

Rookie movement?

T.J. Hockenson (+2) had a slightly higher ADP than his former Iowa teammate Noah Fant (-1) in 2019 rookie drafts but the two were usually viewed as being fairly equal in terms of fantasy potential. We are starting to see a bit more separation between the two in terms of dynasty value now given the glowing training camp reports on Hockenson have been. He has “been awesome” and was described as the team’s best pass-catcher early in camp, even including the Lions wide receivers. If any tight end is going to make the leap up into that elite dynasty tier this year, Hockenson might be the best bet to do so.

Future Rookie Picks

Unless your league mate has been living under a rock, he or she knows the 2020 class is going to be excellent and is likely to put a high value on those 1st rounders. The best strategy at this point may be to try to stockpile second-round picks. The depth at both running back and wide receiver looks to be extremely strong. There are going to be some great players sliding into the second. The advice, for now, is to try to get those picks added on as kickers in trades. By next offseason, you may look back and find the 2020 second-rounder added as a kicker ended up being the most valuable piece.