Each week, Footballguys staff members will share the big movers in their respective Dynasty Rankings. Since the contributors will rotate, please check in weekly. The focus of this article will be on the “why” more than the movement itself. Dynasty Rankings are fluid and we hope that sharing the rationale will help you in your quest to create dynasties with all your teams. The diversity of rankings will result in a variety of opinions weekly.
Quarterbacks
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Jameis Winston – The Tampa Bay quarterback moves down 14 spots in the rankings after Sunday’s performance. Winston has been plagued by turnovers throughout his NFL tenure, but otherwise, the talent is unmistakable. With a compelling set of targets including Chris Godwin, Mike Evans, and O.J. Howard, few quarterbacks have a higher ceiling. New head coach Bruce Arians stressed getting Winston’s turnovers fixed all preseason, but Week 1 was more of the same. Winston threw three interceptions including two pick-6s to a San Francisco secondary that’s not regarded as one of the league’s best. If Winston doesn’t change his turnover-prone ways soon, his future as an NFL starter and fantasy commodity is in jeopardy.
Mitchell Trubisky - There are a handful of young starters bunched together in a tier, but Trubisky falls toward the bottom after a disappointing Week 1 versus the Packers. It’s not so much the one game, but more that it calls into question whether Trubisky made any strides after a 2018 that was less about his skillset and more about positive game scripts.
Baker Mayfield - The fantasy world – me included – got caught up in the Cleveland Browns hype, and there’s still plenty of reason for long-term excitement. However, Mayfield hasn’t earned the right to sit inside the Top 5 yet, and his poor showing against the Titans reinforced that view. He remains solidly in the Top 10 given his age, strong rookie season, and the tantalizing supporting cast.
Gardner Minshew - Nick Foles broke his collarbone, underwent surgery, and is out indefinitely. Rookie Gardner Minshew stepped into the lineup and looked like a seasoned pro; he completed 22-of-25 passes for275 yards, 2 touchdowns, and an interception. The Jaguars traded for Joshua Dobbs on Monday, so it’s not certain Minshew will be anointed the new starter. But if he keeps the starting job, he can build a resume and put himself in position to be traded to a QB-needy team in 2020.
Lamar Jackson - Quarterbacks who rush for 700 or more yards in a season are almost always top-10 performers, so Jackson deserved to be higher than QB23 regardless of what his rushing style means for his long-term health. But as the summer wore on, my confidence in Jackson’s ability to throw the ball – and in turn secure a longer tenure as an NFL starter – increased. His Week 1 performance was the exclamation point in completely reshaping the way we should think of him. I now have him ranked as a low-end fantasy QB1.
Carson Wentz - Wentz is 100% healthy for the first time in two seasons, had the deepest collection of receivers in his young career, and the team is a contender with few if any deficiencies. As long as he can stay healthy, which hasn’t been easy in the last 24 months, he has as much upside as any quarterback other than Patrick Mahomes II.
Tom Brady - It’s hard to rank a 42-year old player highly in dynasty leagues, but Brady is the exception. Josh Gordon’s reinstatement and the soap-operatic acquisition of Antonio Brown set Brady up for another MVP-caliber season. That alone makes him valuable, but he’s also expected to play for another season or two beyond 2019. Don’t rank Brady over some of the younger, elite passers. But don’t treat him as roster fodder, either.
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Lamar Jackson - Jackson as a competent passer is a problem for opposing NFL defenses. Miami is a black hole for 2019 competition, but Baltimore still bludgeoned them for 50+ points. Jackson has strong weapons (Marquise Brown was eased in and still an impact player in his debut, Hayden Hurst healthy as a second-year and first-round tight end among upticks) and the rushing upside to be a QB1 even if his passing levels off.
Jameis Winston - While Winston is not at risk to lose his in-season starting job yet, Week 1 was another frustrating display of Tampa Bay (read: Winston) underperforming on offense with mistakes, turnovers, and not turning yards into touchdowns, all a long-standing trend. Winston has not security for 2020 and a starting gig, so each data point in 2019 decreases his chances to be an unquestioned starter going forward.
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Lamar Jackson - After the first week of the season, the players that move most in dynasty leagues tend to be first or second-year players. Either they have improved a lot from their rookie season or have a bigger role than was originally expected. Lamar Jackson is in the first category. We must check ourselves that it was against the Dolphins, but when the alleged strength of his game, his running was equaled or exceeded by Aaron Rodgers, Matt Ryan, Philip Rivers, and Matthew Stafford, his improvement as a passer must be noted. Better weapons help. He has to move up into the top fantasy quarterbacks, but this could be a volatile situation depending on his next few opponents.
Gardner Minshew and Joshua Dobbs - For the next eight weeks, at least, the Jacksonville Jaguars will be looking for decent production at quarterback following the Nick Foles injury. If the defense does not show more than the disheveled mess that the team produced against the Chiefs, the offense will be accruing yardage. Minshew was poised and did well, but sixth-round rookies in action within the first week of the season is poor management from the team. Joshua Dobbs has had little playing experience in the NFL but is in his third year and ready for playing time, once he gets his head into his new environment. In deeper leagues, both are worth rostering and move significantly up rankings
Kyler Murray - One good garbage time quarter does not erase third quarters of amateur hour, despite the fact it put the Cardinals back into the game and gave them a tie. The Lions don’t look threatening and it will be interesting to see how Murray does against better teams over the next few weeks. He gets a pass after the first game, but he cannot move up rankings until we see better than that.
Baker Mayfield - Cleveland must improve rapidly on the performance against the Titans or this is going to be another long season for the Browns. Optimism was short-lived and will be on a knife’s edge this week against the Jets. Baker Mayfield was heavily overvalued heading into his second season and while we cannot assume that he won’t reach the level predicted, anyone relying on him this year will be anxious. He must move down rankings, but for the most part, he is where I thought he would be.
Running Back
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David Montgomery - Despite the plethora of excellent rookie performances in week one, dismissing rookies after their debut game is an amateur move. David Montgomery will get better and will have more opportunities in future weeks. The Packers played excellent defense and the rookie runner was not helped by average quarterback play. Long term he should be an excellent fantasy running back, but at least let him find his feet and get used to the pace of NFL football.
Kalen Ballage - After that stinkfest by the Dolphins expecting any production from a Dolphins runner will have to come in the passing game. That appears to be the forte of Kenyan Drake. Anyone with any kind of expectations in Kalen Ballage would be best to cut bait if there is anything with a pulse on the waiver wire. Fourth-round rookie running backs don’t tend to have lengthy futures in the NFL, especially as starters. Optimism is gone here.
Devin Singletary - Normally when a runner has four carries for 70 yards you would expect one huge run and three smaller ones but in the case of Buffalo rookie Devin Singletary his longest run was 23 yards and his shortest 12. Add in five receptions and he clearly has future fantasy starter written all over him. We need to see how he does with more than 10 carries and before someone mortgages their side to acquire him caution should be advised. He does rise in rankings but should have done so once LeSean McCoy was cut or projected to be a cut. Frank Gore is not going to see 200 carries here.
Miles Sanders - One thing you hate to see in inexperienced running backs is runs for negative yardage. Sanders had four of them in 11 attempts. Add in two attempts for zero yardage and it was a poor start to an NFL career. The bright side was a 19-yard-per-attempt average and he had an additional score called back by a penalty. It would be silly to downgrade him as he is in a good offense that will provide opportunities for the best back. Sanders has upside and will hopefully learn from a difficult start.
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Peyton Barber – The Tampa tailback’s grip on the lead role is wavering at best. Ronald Jones is putting his best NFL tape (still questionable in my view) out there and Dare Ogunbowale saw decent snaps with the negative game script, which could maintain much of the season with the state of Tampa Bay. Barber likely shifts to an RB2/3 NFL depth chart spot in 2020 regardless of his finishing stretch for 2019.
Austin Ekeler – He was fabulous in Week 1, prompting the Chargers to think ‘Melvin who?’ as Ekeler is a Danny Woodhead-like perfect fit for the offense and now seeing a surge in snaps and touches. Justin Jackson is a distant RB2 in the rotation and Ekeler is poised to have an aWORP (Adjusted Wins Over Replacement Player) impact for fantasy teams in the early-season James White or James Conner range from last year. Ekeler is found money every week until/if Melvin Gordon returns.
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Jerick McKinnon, Tevin Coleman, Derrius Guice - All three of these backs are talented but are dealing with injuries. Today’s NFL is particularly ruthless to running backs, and extended injuries can permanently erode a back’s long-term value.
Damien Williams - LeSean McCoy is no spring chicken, but the Chiefs paid him $4 million and he effectively split touches with Williams in Week 1. Williams was the better fantasy performer, thanks to a touchdown, but he also ran ineffectively. Given Williams own age and history as a part-time player, it’s worth pushing Williams down to the bottom of the RB2 tier.
Todd Gurley - Gurley passed every test in the summer regarding his knee. He practiced regularly, and neither he nor the coaches gave a reason for concern. But then Malcolm Brown split carries with Gurley in Week 1 and got the all-important goal-line looks. It’s enough to bump Gurley down a few slots but he remains a top-10 running back in dynasty.
Austin Ekeler - Ekeler’s first game of Melvin Gordon’s hold out couldn’t have gone worse for Gordon, or better for Ekeler. He scored three touchdowns and looked capable as a runner and receiver. Ekeler’s size and injury history make it hard to buy into a multi-year run as an elite fantasy asset, but he’ll be a must-start while healthy.
Chris Carson - Ranking Carson 18th may still be too low after he parlayed a terrific summer into a dominant performance in Week 1. The Seahawks are committed to the run, and Carson has done nothing to risk his role as the bell cow. Rashaad Penny remains an attractive dynasty asset in his own right, but Carson’s arrow is pointing up.
Devin Singletary - Singletary’s fates improved after the Bills jettisoned LeSean McCoy. But there were still questions about his size and whether the Bills planned on a committee approach. In Week 1 Singletary was the Bills top back and looked explosive in the process. Another few weeks of successfully handling starter minutes will push Singletary into the Top 25.
Wide Receiver
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Sammy Watkins – He was the pedigree bet over the past few seasons. He is finally healthy and entrenched as a key target for the Patrick Mahomes II-led Chiefs, an optimal setting for upside. Watkins looked healthy and fantastic in Week 1 and the Tyreek Hill injury and missed time only aids Watkins' standing as a top-12 producer this season.
D.J. Moore – With one of the more underrated of the wide receiver performances, Moore looks the part of a 2019 breakout player. Moore was used all over the field and had a decided edge over popular sleeper Curtis Samuel on the same depth chart. Moore’s metric profile as a prospect and Year 1 season in 2018 point to a WR1 in 2019 or 2020 at the latest.
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Mike Williams - Williams suffered a knee injury in Week 1, and that casts a shadow over his value this year and beyond.
Dante Pettis - Pettis had a quiet preseason, and several beat writers indicated he wasn’t guaranteed a starting role. We all doubted those reports, but Week 1 reinforced the skeptical outlook. The 49ers have a young receiving corps, and it’s a meritocracy. Pettis needs to start making plays soon, or he should be viewed as a developmental backup for dynasty purposes.
T.Y. Hilton - Hilton’s strong Week 1 game helps offset the fears of Jacoby Brissett replacing Andrew Luck. Brissett played much better than he did in 2017, and that helps insulate Hilton from a complete fall-off this season and beyond.
Michael Gallup - Gallup had a quiet rookie season, and Amari Cooper’s acquisition pushed Gallup down the pecking order from potential No. 1 to long-term No. 2. But Gallup was the best player in Dallas’ training camp and looked explosive in the Week 1 win over New York. Cooper played well, too, but Gallup has top-30 value even with a healthy Cooper and could push for top-20 value if Cooper gets hurt – or doesn’t remain in Dallas beyond 2019.
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Marquise Brown - Talent usually shows out in the NFL. Despite landing on an offense that was predicted to be pass as a last resort, Baltimore clearly knew what they were doing acquiring Marquise Brown with their first-rounder. Caution must be advised as it was against a team with not much to play for, but Brown must be considered as an add and immediate start due to his game-breaking ability. If Lamar Jackson can truly find him deep often, then fantasy seasons could be decided.
Jamison Crowder - For the life of me, I cannot see why others didn’t see the role Adam Gase had forecast for Jamison Crowder. In my preseason comments, I stated that “Crowder will outproduce his draft slot, the only question is by how much?” 17 targets and 14 catches later the answer is clear. He should and will outproduce even the most optimistic of forecasts, mine, and if he can find the endzone occasionally, an issue previously with him, he will be a solid producer in PPR leagues.
Sammy Watkins - Some of us have been fairly harsh in our criticism of the production of Sammy Watkins over the years and that led to him being heavily undervalued in redraft leagues. In hindsight, it is obvious that a starting receiver in an Andy Reid offense with Patrick Mahomes II under center is a no brainer. The short-term absence of Tyreek Hill will help as well. He has been almost a forgotten member of the fantastic class of 2014, but as the first receiver drafted from that group could have the best season of all of them in 2019. Has to massively rise in rankings.
DK Metcalf - Of the five receptions Russell Wilson threw to Seahawks wide receivers against the Bengals, one went to Tyler Lockett and four went to rookie DK Metcalf. He provided a more reliable threat than Lockett and looks to be the consistent big-play threat Seattle has been looking for. Given his health concerns in the preseason, one must wonder what his true upside if he remains out of the training room. He must have a significant rise in rankings.
Michael Gallup - To many a trained eye, Michael Gallup looked like an elite receiver in the making. Why then do people not factor this into their preseason rankings when evaluating players, especially when they are reported to have had a fantastic camp? Not every week will produce 150-yard games, but the potential will be there each and every game. With the strong running game Dallas possesses and a star receiver opposite, expect Gallup to have matchups to be exploited for the foreseeable future.
D.J. Chark - People write off young receivers far too quick. D.J. Chark was a second-round receiver in the 2018 draft and a lot of them take time to develop. The difference from the first season to the second can be staggering as we see each and every year. The fact that he went undrafted in most leagues and will be an attractive waiver wire addition after this week is a testament to impatience from fantasy managers preferring to draft a player like Golden Tate than the upside Chark brings. The loss of Nick Foles dampens some of the enthusiasm moving forward, but he still should at least be acquired.
Tight End
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Evan Engram - The drum beats all summer pointed to a breakout for Evan Engram, and Week 1’s dominant performance in a losing effort against Dallas was impossible to ignore. Engram was already part of the second-tier along with Hunter Henry and O.J. Howard but moves from the end of that tier to the top.
Mark Andrews - Andrews was part of the Ravens 59-point bonanza in Week 1, and while Baltimore won’t come close to scoring 59 points again this year, Andrews has the talent and role to remain a top-10 fantasy tight end. A year ago, Andrews was part of a four-man committee but is now one of Lamar Jackson’s go-to targets.
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Mark Andrews - When a rookie tight end defies expectations and becomes a top 20 producer, he clearly has a future in the NFL. Mark Andrews looked the goods last year and despite beating up on the hapless Dolphins in the opening game should be a reliable fantasy starter moving forward. The position lacks players with consistency and that will also be a problem with Andrews, but he will produce more games like this and must move up rankings.
T.J. Hockenson - Rarely a rookie tight end lives up to the hype in his first season, let alone his first game, but T.J. Hockenson did that and more. It is clear the Lions offense has a good plan to get him the ball and while it won’t all be smooth sailing from here, he could be the highest producing rookie tight end in the last 30 years. Surpassing Rob Gronkowski’s 2010 season will be a tough challenge, but Hockenson is off to a flying start. A big riser in rankings.
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Evan Engram – Engram has the look of the TE1/2 overall this season. The volume should be enough to warrant the expectations and, even if Eli Manning falters, Daniel Jones has enough promise to justify continuing his dominance of the market share. Only Travis Kelce and George Kittle could challenge Engram this year.
Eric Ebron - His snaps were alarmingly low in Week 1 and a distant second to Jack Doyle. Add Deon Cain looking competent as a secondary receiver to T.Y. Hilton, and Ebron is devolving into a lower-level streamer rather than the top-5 and touchdown-infused option a year ago.
