Photo: Brace Hemmelgarn, USA Today Sports

KNOW YOUR ENEMIES

To place near the top of a large field GPP, your roster has to stand out from the crowd in some way. Knowing which players will command the highest ownership is a helpful first step, but without the context of how those players can fit together under the salary cap, it’s difficult to project the type of lineups you’ll be up against most frequently.

Sometimes, the clearest path to creating a unique roster is to allocate more of your salary cap to the positions your opponents are not. To gain some insight into how most other entrants are likely to think as they construct their rosters, with the goal of building yours differently, consider these bullets:

• Several games on this week’s slate could go back and forth, but only Houston at Tennessee has reached a 50-point over/under. It’s somewhat underwhelming for a marquee game but will command heavy ownership nonetheless. Deshaun Watson-DeAndre Hopkins stacks run back with electric rookie A.J. Brown will be a common starting point for roster builds. The same holds true for Ryan Tannehill-Brown-Hopkins game stacks. Contrarian options who could play a larger than expected role include Houston’s running backs and both teams’ tight ends.

• Only $1K separates the top-12 quarterbacks this week, which will lead to flat ownership rates at the position, as usual. In addition to Watson and Tannehill, the crowd will be drawn to Patrick Mahomes II ($7,100) and Jameis Winston ($6,900) in the top salary tier (despite their respective hand injuries). Kyler Murray ($5,600) is the only attractive punt option, which should leave the entire group of signal-callers priced from $6K-$6.3K lightly-owned. Due to the tightly-bunched pricing, quarterback won’t make much of a difference in this week’s common construction.

• Rashaad Penny’s torn ACL and Seattle’s matchup against Carolina’s awful rush defense will conspire to make Chris Carson ($7,500) this week’s running back chalk. Christian McCaffrey ($10,000) and Saquon Barkley ($7,700) should be neck and neck behind Carson in terms of popularity, which will leave most entrants searching for a bargain-priced RB2. Josh Jacobs is a lynchpin on this slate. If Jacobs plays (which seems likely as of this writing), we’ll see guys like Phillip Lindsay ($5,600) Raheem Mostert ($5,200), and Patrick Laird ($4,500) pick up steam, but if he misses a second-straight game, expect DeAndre Washington ($4,700) to get piled on in an enticing spot vs. Jacksonville. Regardless of Jacobs’ status, lineups built around two or more high-priced running backs will be the exception.

• Hopkins ($8,000) and Chris Godwin ($7,700) are the main reasons why heavy spending at wide receiver will be more common than at running back. And despite being priced up for the matchup against Tampa Bay, Kenny Golladay ($7,200) gives the crowd another expensive option to consider with the news Marvin Jones was placed on IR. It’s possible to get to A.J. Brown at WR3 in the common construction, but players in the $5K range like Christian Kirk ($5,500) and Darius Slayton ($4,700) fit more comfortably under the cap.

• George Kittle ($6,200), Zach Ertz ($6,000), and Darren Waller ($5,500) each have exploitable on-paper matchups. They’ll be popular standalone options but spending up at quarterback, RB1, WR1, and WR2 doesn’t leave much room for a luxury purchase at tight end. Tyler Higbee’s price ($3,900) has been painfully slow to rise after back-to-back 100-yard outings and Ian Thomas ($3,100) is still cheap following an impressive start in relief of Greg Olsen last week. Assuming Olsen and Gerald Everett remain sidelined, Higbee and Thomas will be heavily-owned salary savers.

• Most entrants will allocate about $2.5K-$3.5K at defense/special teams. On the low end, the Lions ($2,300) are mispriced relative to their upside playing against Jameis Winston at home. At the high end of that range, the crowd will (correctly) jump at the chance to roster the Eagles, who draw Dwayne Haskins playing at less than 100% health. The Giants ($2,700) and Packers ($3,000) are the logical mid-range options given their respective opponents.

TAKING A STAND ON THE CHALK

These players are the odds-on favorites to score the most fantasy points relative to their respective salaries. The problem is most of your opponents are well aware. Fading popular plays entirely for the sake of differentiating your lineups is rarely the best decision when multi-entering tournaments. Instead, decide how much exposure you are comfortable with for each player in comparison to their projected ownership percentage. Some suggestions on how to treat this week’s highest-owned players:

Deshaun Watson (@TEN, $6,500, 8% owned)

Watson scored 28+ Draftkings points in back-to-back games and remains moderately priced relative to his upside. The 50-point over/under in Texans at Titans and his correlation with DeAndre Hopkins will undoubtedly inflate Watson’s ownership, but it’s fair to wonder if he goes off in this spot for two main reasons:

1. Watson was tremendous at home against New England in Week 13 but was a non-factor last week against Denver until the outcome was already decided. He bailed out his owners with two rushing touchdowns, which were his first scores on the ground since Week 6. Prior to last week’s 44 rushing yards, Watson had combined for just 21 yards on the ground over his previous three games.

2. As of this writing, Will Fuller is practicing on a limited basis, but his return from a nagging hamstring injury cannot be taken for granted after he was a surprise scratch last week. Fuller is a key to Watson unlocking his ceiling. If it weren’t for most of last week’s game being played in garbage time, Watson would have put up subpar numbers for the third time in four games without Fuller this season.
   

You’ll want some exposure to Watson’s upside, especially if Fuller is able to suit up, but he’s not as locked in for a huge game as it might appear.

Chris Carson (@CAR, $7,500, 22% owned)

In case you were wondering if the crowd has caught on to how bad Carolina’s run defense is, Devonta Freeman -- the cumulative RB25 entering last week’s game -- was over 20% owned against the Panthers in last week’s Milly Maker. With Rashaad Penny suffering an unfortunate ACL injury just as he was starting to deliver on his immense promise, all eyes will be on Carson as Seattle’s unquestioned bell cow. Carson makes a ton of sense as the running back chalk. Carolina has allowed nearly 60% more PPR fantasy points than league average to enemy running backs over the last three weeks. And if you believe Vegas set the line correctly (SEA -6), 30 touches for Carson is not out of the question. Carson’s ownership, on the other hand, could be a problem. Don’t be surprised if he checks in as much as 10% higher than Buzzard’s early week projection by Sunday, in which case you have to ask yourself if he’s really three times as likely as someone like Ezekiel Elliott to appear in a first-place lineup (hint: he isn’t).

DeAndre Hopkins (@TEN, $8,000, 20% owned)

Watson disappointing and Hopkins meeting expectations are not mutually exclusive events, especially if Fuller is out or limited. Hopkins, as usual, is a target hog of the highest order. His 30% team target share trails only Michael Thomas this season (31%) and he’s averaged 12 targets per game in the four games Fuller has missed. Enemy WR1s, including Mike Evans, D.J. Moore, Tyreek Hill, and Zach Pascal have throttled the Titans over the back half of the season. With Malcolm Butler out and fellow cornerback Adoree’ Jackson unlikely to return this week, it’s not a trend that figures to reverse. And if you’re into narratives, Hopkins has made an annual ritual out of roasting Tennessee since entering the league. You’ll want your exposure to at least match the field’s and he gets an added bump if Fuller scratches.

Tyler Higbee (@DAL, $3,900, 11% owned)

Gerald Everett was still missing from practice at the start of the week, Higbee’s numbers without Everett in the lineup border on overall TE1 territory, and DraftKings seems asleep at the wheel on Higbee’s price headed into a matchup against Dallas. Leighton Vander Esch isn’t close to a return and it appears the Cowboys could also be without fellow linebacker Sean Lee (thigh, pectoral) on Sunday. In Vander Esch’s absence last week, Dallas allowed a combined seven catches and 92 yards to Chicago’s not-so-fearsome tight end duo of J.P. Holtz and Jesper Horsted. Expect Higbee’s ownership projection could easily double by the weekend update. Following the crowd at tight end is usually poor game theory due to the position’s volatility, but his matchup and usage without Everett in the lineup make fading Higbee a tough sell when you can argue he’s underpriced by about $2K.

Philadelphia Eagles (@WAS, $3,400, 10% owned)

Since taking over the starting quarterback job in Week 8, Dwayne Haskins has been sacked an average of four times per game and was taken down at least three times in every contest. At that rate, the Eagles only have to get off the team bus to 1x their salary. The potential for turnovers and defensive touchdowns is merely the gravy. Philadelphia’s defensive line presents all sorts of problems for Washington in the trenches and Haskins’ awful 55% completion rate inspires little confidence he’ll be able to limit turnovers in a game the Eagles need to keep their playoff hopes alive.

MORE CHALK:

MID-RANGE OWNERSHIP VALUE

You won’t be sneaking these players past your opponents. But their projected ownership percentage is lower than the probability they will score more fantasy points than their salary implies. If you are multi-entering tournaments, raise your exposure higher than their ownership projection.

Patrick Mahomes II (vs. DEN, $7,100, 9% owned)

We have to go back to Week 10 to find the last time Mahomes exceeded 20 DraftKings points and he’s dealing with a high-profile injury to his throwing hand. He practiced fully on Wednesday and was able to complete 65% of his passes against New England’s defense while playing most of the game with the injury, so it appears safe to assume the hand will not be a major issue. We’re getting Mahomes at a moderate price and ownership rate as a double-digit home favorite with the Chiefs implied to score 28 points. Leave the results from the last few weeks in the rear-view and don’t look back. Mahomes is still the guy 400-yard, four-touchdown upside and he’s facing a defense that has allowed 24% more fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks than league average over the last five weeks.

Ezekiel Elliott (vs. LAR, $7,800, 11% owned)

Elliott is purely a game theory play. The Cowboys are home underdogs against the Rams and have a mediocre 23-point implied team total. To make matters worse, LA ranks third in rushing defense efficiency (DVOA). But when you compare Elliott’s baseline projections and range of outcomes with those of Carson and Saquon Barkley, each of whom projects for at least twice the ownership, there isn’t a significant difference. Barring injury, Elliott is going to touch the ball ~25 times in a fast-paced, potentially high-scoring game environment and he has touchdown equity. Double the field if his ownership projection remains in this range come Sunday.

Cooper Kupp (@DAL, $6,500, 7% owned)

On the other side of the Rams-Cowboys matchup, Kupp’s single-digit ownership projection stands out. He’s no longer commanding the volume he was over the first half of the season when 30 DraftKings points were his norm, but he has touchdowns in back-to-back games and is only two weeks removed from a 10-target outing against Baltimore. Sean McVay often deploys Kupp the way many teams would a pass-catching tight end, which makes the matchup against the Cowboys attractive. Dallas is much easier to beat over the middle of the field than on the perimeter even when their linebackers are healthy. Slot receivers Anthony Miller (4-3-42-1), Cole Beasley (7-6-110-1), and Julian Edelman (12-8-93-0) have posted fantasy-relevant receiving lines against the Cowboys in each of their last three games. Kupp is a great way to leverage the high ownership of Higbee and Todd Gurley.

Austin Hooper (@SF, $5,000, 4% owned)

Ordinarily, it’s best to target tight ends on heavy home favorites, but Hooper is an exception this week. With the Falcons traveling to San Francisco as 10.5-point road underdogs, Matt Ryan could conceivably throw the ball 45+ times and many of those attempts will come while under pressure. When Ryan needs to get the ball out quickly, he looks to Hooper first. And without Calvin Ridley in the lineup, we can expect Atlanta’s target distribution to consolidate. Take advantage of the perceived negative matchup against the 49ers defense and follow the opportunity. The potential exists for Hooper to exceed 10 targets in this game.

Kansas City Chiefs (vs. DEN, $3,400, 5% owned)

Drew Lock has been a pleasant surprise for Broncos fans thus far, leading Denver to wins in each of his first two starts. But we’ve yet to see what it looks like when Lock is faced with adversity, and playing at Arrowhead as a double-digit underdog in your third career start is about as adverse as NFL circumstances can get. The Chiefs’ defense is opportunistic, and if Mahomes and co. stake them to a big lead at home, they should be able to pin their ears back and pressure Lock into some dangerous passes. The floor is low here, but Kansas City’s ceiling is close to 25 DraftKings points.

MORE MID-RANGE OWNERSHIP VALUES

CONTRARIAN PLAYS

Hitting on one-or-more of these players will gain you massive leverage on the field. Due to their low ownership, the better they perform, the faster your roster separates in the standings. Keep in mind, using a 5%-owned player in only 2-out-of-10 lineups gains you four times more exposure than the field when you multi-enter a tournament. Be careful not to over-invest in these players, but you’ll need at least two from this ownership tier in your lineup for a shot at first place in most large-field GPPs.

Philip Rivers (vs. MIN, $5,600, 1% owned)

Rivers has returned to respectability the last two weeks after a disastrous four-game stretch that culminated in a four-interception meltdown in Week 11. This recommendation has less to do with Rivers, however, than the ability of his pass-catchers to exploit Minnesota’s suspect secondary. The Vikings have allowed 18% more fantasy production to enemy wide receivers than they should have based on their schedule-based expectation. Keenan Allen and Mike Williams will be far too lightly-owned relative to the strong matchup. The same could be said for Hunter Henry and Austin Ekeler as well and each of their paths intersects at Rivers.

Joe Mixon (vs. NE, $6,100, 3% owned)

The matchup can’t get much worse for Mixon, and he’ll lose snaps if (when) the Bengals fall behind the Patriots. Taking an overweight stance on Mixon is essentially betting that a running back with his talent level and opportunity share will reach expectation at his salary more than three times if these two teams played 100 games against each other. Since Andy Dalton re-entered the lineup, Mixon posted a respectable 17 DraftKings points against a stout Jets run defense before lighting up Cleveland last week for 186 scrimmage yards and a touchdown. Both New England and Cincinnati rank inside the top-seven offenses in situation neutral pace of play, which could offer Mixon the upside for 25+ touches as the engine of the Bengals offense.

Terry McLaurin (vs. PHI, $5,300, 3% owned)

Dwayne Haskins couldn’t hit a lake if he was standing on the dock. It’s been painful watching Haskins air-mail throws while McLaurin separates from defensive backs with ease. On the bright side, Haskins’ ineptitude is baked into McLaurin’s salary and ownership projection in what feels like a can’t miss spot against the Eagles. McLaurin will line up opposite Ronald Darby on the majority of his routes. Darby was the main culprit behind DeVante Paker’s slate-breaking 10-7-159-2 receiving line in Week 13 and followed it up by allowing Darius Slayton (8-5-154-2) to go off on Monday night. One accurate deep throw out of three or four should be all McLaurin needs from Haskins to deliver value in this spot.

Jonnu Smith (vs. HOU, $3,500, 3% owned)

A.J. Brown is on the path towards a dominant NFL career but he’s getting by on extreme efficiency as a rookie, which is difficult to sustain from week to week. As Brown’s salary and ownership continue to creep upwards, leverage opportunities will open up around him in the Titans offense, which leads us to Smith. Tennessee has been divvying up pass routes between Smith, Anthony Firkser, and Mycole Pruitt fairly evenly in recent weeks. But Smith has typically played on 80-90% of the offensive snaps in Delanie Walker’s absence, making him the most likely of the trio to exploit the matchup against Houston. The Texans have allowed the third-most normalized fantasy points to opposing tight ends over the last five weeks. Smith, a 93rd percentile SPARQ-x athlete, has the skill-set to get behind Houston’s defense the same way Noah Fant (4-4-113-1) did last week.

Atlanta Falcons (vs. SF, $2,100, 2% owned)

This play is completely off the board and not for the faint of heart. In theory, the 49ers should spank the Falcons at home this week and Vegas agrees (SF -10.5). At just $2,100, however, Atlanta only needs to capitalize on one poor decision from Jimmy Garoppolo to exceed value. Garoppolo deserves kudos for how well he’s played this season but he’s a safe bet to get sacked about three times per game and make at least two interceptable throws each week. San Francisco could come out flat after a huge conference win in New Orleans last week and the Falcons, whose defense has flashed a 20+ point ceiling, are still playing with pride. They’ll either score double-digit DraftKings points or zero, with no in-between.

MORE CONTRARIAN PLAYS

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