This article will update you on the absolute latest information you need to know and contextualize that information to help you figure out who to target and when in your drafts this weekend.
Last weekend, we went through position-by-position looking at the latest news. We are going to come at it from a different angle this week and instead break down the news from the perspective of specific rounds of the draft. Topics covered will include:
- The Ezekiel Elliott decision
- The 2/3 turn (the toughest part of the draft right now)
- The new landscape at quarterback with the Luck and Newton injuries
- The wide receivers to prioritize in the 6th-8th rounds
- The 9th-13th round running backs to target ahead of ADP
- The 10th-14th round wide receivers to target ahead of ADP
This article is geared specifically to 12-team best ball leagues on DRAFT and uses DRAFT ADP from the last 48 hours. However, the information and most of the draft strategy discussed should be just as useful for any season-long draft taking place this weekend. In fact, an in-depth look at where the hottest names are being drafted right this minute in relatively sharp leagues (like the tournament fields on DRAFT) could be just what you need to gain an edge in your redraft league.
1. Where should you draft Elliott?
If you land a pick after 1.03, you are going to spend some time in advance of your draft deciding exactly how you want to approach Ezekiel Elliott (ADP: 5.5). He is the wild card of the first round. If we knew for sure he would show up before Week 1, he would be an easy choice at 1.04. However, the longer this contract standoff drags on, the lower the odds of Elliott being out there on September 8th against the Giants. The Cowboys have recently made Elliott another offer but it may not be enough if Elliott wants a contract more lucrative than the one Todd Gurley signed last offseason in an almost identical situation.
The Cowboys have reportedly offered Ezekiel Elliott a contract that would make him the second-highest paid running back in the NFL: https://t.co/q3rbSYg7MB pic.twitter.com/e3JeMnUukV
— Sports Illustrated (@SInow) August 23, 2019
In addition to the holdout dragging on, drafters this weekend are also going to have to consider the impact Tony Pollard may have on Elliott’s fantasy production whenever he does return. All signs point to Pollard having impressed enough that he should at least take a decent chunk of Elliott’s 3rd-down snaps away.
What they're saying about Cowboys RB Tony Pollard: Backup deserves offensive role whether Ezekiel Elliott returns or nothttps://t.co/R5rJ7vz12I
— SportsDay Cowboys (@dmn_cowboys) August 21, 2019
The combination of a ceiling lowered by Pollard’s presence and the small but real risk that Elliott’s holdout drags deep into the regular season is enough to make him a tough sell early in the first round if you are drafting this weekend. Players like David Johnson, DeAndre Hopkins, and Davante Adams project to have a similar enough impact that it probably makes sense to draft them ahead of Elliott given the holdout risk. Even in the late first round, Elliott is not a slam dunk. The decision comes down to how much risk you want to take on and how high you are on the alternative options and a solid case can be made in either direction.
As for Tony Pollard (ADP: 117), he has risen way up draft boards. He is now going in the 10th round, which is understandable given that it looks like he will be a contributor even when Elliott returns (giving him a floor) and massive upside for as long as Elliott is out. In terms of upside, Pollard has played every snap with the first-team offense to this point in the preseason. He is clearly the next man up. He is a decent option in this range but most of the value in drafting Pollard has evaporated.
2. The 2/3 Turn: Pick Your Poison
The toughest decisions of the early rounds of drafts this weekend are likely to come near the 2/3 turn in 12-team leagues for any team who is drafting from the 1.01, 1.02, 1.03, or 1.04 positions.
We are starting to see a tier break midway through the second round. There are 20 players with an ADP of 20 or lower. Mike Evans (ADP: 19) and Joe Mixon (ADP: 20) are the last two players of this tier.
Once those top-20 are off the board, it feels really difficult to find a player with both serious upside and a relatively high floor. Here are the next six players off the board:
A Port in the Storm?
The ADPs of Adam Thielen (ADP: 25) and George Kittle (ADP: 27) have remained pretty steady all offseason. It has felt like they are being drafted pretty close to their ceiling, which hasn’t made them the most attractive targets. Nothing has changed. If anything, the struggles of Jimmy Garoppolo in San Francisco has added slightly to the risk for Kittle.
Regardless, both Kittle and Thielen look like better options now than a few weeks ago because we are seeing the risk increase for other players who had been Round 2 locks for a long time, especially Antonio Brown (ADP: 24) and Damien Williams (ADP: 24).
It might be time to concede Kerryon Johnson (ADP: 23) may not have the upside that we want out of a 2nd-round pick either. He has not been used as a true workhorse back throughout the preseason. In fact, he hasn’t been on the field on most third downs. There is still a decent floor here because Johnson is safely ensconced as the lead back. But if he is limited to 60-70% of the touches at the position on what will likely be a mediocre offense, do you feel good taking him in the 2nd round?
Fournette: Reeling me back in
Amidst the well-documented uncertainty surrounding Brown and Williams and the relatively modest upside of Johnson, Thielen, and Kittle, it makes sense to consider making somebody new our primary target in the late-2nd round. Why not Leonard Fournette (ADP: 27)?
Yes, we know he has had a hard time staying healthy but that is true of most running backs, including Kerryon Johnson. The injury concerns add to the risk but Fournette is fully healthy now and it looks like he has almost no competition for touches. When comparing the risk versus reward in this part of the draft, Fournette starts to look pretty good.
Nick Foles played 19 snaps last night. Lenny Fournette played 18 of them and was in on all four 3rd-down snaps. Drew three targets. pic.twitter.com/bRsrAMSFvE
— Adam Levitan (@adamlevitan) August 23, 2019
The Jaguars are going to give Fournette as many touches as he can handle. Going into any given week Fournette is healthy, we are probably going to be projecting him for 20+ carries and at least a handful of targets. There is 1st-round upside here on volume alone. The fact left tackle Cam Robinson is now on pace to start the opener is another factor that should push Fournette up boards.
3. Mid-Round Quarterback Landscape
Cam Newton Injury
Cam Newton (ADP: 94) had finally seen his ADP climb into the 8th round but it probably won’t last long. Newton suffered a sprained foot.
From Carolina Panthers GM Marty Hurney: "Cam Newton has a mid-foot sprain in his left foot, and we are cautiously optimistic he will be ready for week one."
— Jourdan Rodrigue (@JourdanRodrigue) August 23, 2019
Hopeful for Week 1 is about the best you could ask for at this point. Still, there is not a whole lot separating this huge tier of passers going in the 8th-12th round and an injury that impacts Newton’s athleticism and potentially even his availability early in the season is enough to break some ties against him. For now, avoid Newton at his top-100 ADP but don’t be afraid to catch him if he falls into the 10th round. The upside is still there.
Latest on Luck
All remains status quo on Andrew Luck (ADP: 96). He is not practicing and his status for Week 1 remains very much in question. In fact, if you were trying to read the tea leaves, some small things point to Indianapolis gearing up to be without him to start the season.
The writing seems to be on the wall. Have said for awhile that #AndrewLuck ankle won't be 100% for Week 1. Get full details here: https://t.co/cBeIPImG60 https://t.co/QloM9clyRx
— David J. Chao (@ProFootballDoc) August 23, 2019
The advice is the same as last week: if you are on the clock and Luck is there along with another quarterback you like as a QB1, take the other guy and let somebody else take Luck. The 9th-11th round is fertile ground to land a QB1 with legitimate upside. Players who you should strongly consider drafting ahead of Luck include Carson Wentz (ADP: 94) Kyler Murray (ADP: 102), Jameis Winston (ADP: 106), Jared Goff (ADP: 106), Lamar Jackson (ADP: 110), Drew Brees (ADP: 112), Russell Wilson (ADP: 117), and Dak Prescott (ADP: 127).
4. Wide Receivers Available in the 6th-8th rounds
Let’s quickly touch on some of the key players to consider in this part of the draft:
A.J. Green (ADP: 64): Many are saying to avoid Green anywhere near his ADP but don’t forget his upside. At the midway point of last season, Green was the WR7 and scoring with 1.5 PPG of the top guys like DeAndre Hopkins. He is going off the board as the WR27 and often falls further than that. If Green is able to come back around Week 4 and pick up where he left off last season, he will end up being the best pick of the 6th round and everyone who passed on him will be kicking themselves come playoff time.
Curtis Samuel (ADP: 71): Samuel is no longer the screaming bargain he was early in the offseason but don’t shy away from him at the inflated price point either. Even post-hype, Samuel is still just 31st wide receiver off the board. He was a top-20 wide receiver in the second half of 2018 at age 22 despite Cam Newton having a bum shoulder.
Josh Gordon (ADP: 77): Upon further reflection, Gordon looks like a good high-risk, high-reward play in the early-7th round. We know the talent is there and the potential targets are as well. At some point, you need to take some home run swings to win and Gordon in the 7th round is worth the risk.
Westbrook belongs in this tier
Dede Westbrook (ADP: 91) should be a big riser after his Thursday night performance and is a player worth reaching for at least a round ahead of ADP if you are drafting this weekend. We got our first real look at the Jacksonville starting offense on Thursday night and it was clear Westbrook is going to be a major focal point of the offense.
Nick Foles' target distribution tonight:
— Jared Smola (@SmolaDS) August 23, 2019
Dede Westbrook - 7
Leonard Fournette - 3
-- End --
Those seven targets to Westbrook all came in basically the first quarter. The Jaguars starting offense played the first 15:05 of the game. W
Marqise Lee will be back in the mix soon and Chris Conley drew a flag on a key third-down target, so there will be some competition at the position. But there should be little doubt that Westbrook is going to be peppered with targets and he looks like a guy with the talent to make them count. Offensive coordinator John DeFillippo stated this week Westbrook was the best route runner he has ever been around, especially notable since he spent last season in Minnesota with Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen. In terms of separating signal from noise in the preseason, this looks like a spot where the information is actionable and should have an impact on our rankings and draft strategy.
5. Rookie Running Back Targets in the 9th-13th Round
One clear path to putting together a potentially killer roster is to take a top running back early, absolutely load up at wide receiver with most of your remaining picks in the first eight rounds, and then swing for the fences on some of the high-upside young backs in the 9th-13th round.
Let’s just go rapid-fire through some names who are worth targeting in this range:
Darwin Thompson (ADP: 124): It feels like Thompson’s ADP jumps a round or two every few days. At this point, you probably have to grab him in the 10th-round (maybe even 9th-round) to have a shot. Thompson is the RB2 in Kansas City and is going to have flex value even if Damien Williams is the starter. Plus, there is a realistic possibility that Thompson eventually emerges as the lead back here. Even with the rising price tag, Thompson is worth targeting.
Justice Hill (ADP: 129): Hill is in a similar situation to Thompson. He is running behind Mark Ingram and is just a low-end flex option to start the season. But there is a realistic path to big fantasy production should Ingram get hurt or if Hill simply proves he is the best option.
Damien Harris (ADP: 143): Harris was a hot name early in the offseason, typically going off the board in the 10th round. However, as Sony Michel made a successful return, he has become a bit of an afterthought. This is a spot where an injury is probably necessary for Harris to emerge. However, he would see a big spike in value if either Michel or James White should go down so there are multiple paths to relevance. Plus, if Harris does get an opportunity, his ceiling is extremely high given the massive fantasy pie that is the Patriots backfield.
Darrell Henderson (ADP: 95): Henderson probably belongs in this tier as well, which is why his ADP has tumbled and could continue to fall further. Don’t forget about what made him so attractive in the first place, however. If Todd Gurley goes down with an injury or needs to take some time off late in the season to charge up for the playoffs, Henderson could be a league-winner in the Rams offense.
6. Wide Receiver Targets in the 10th-13th rounds
We are starting to get some real actionable information that is telling us that the following wide receivers have a great shot to outperform their ADP:
Emmanuel Sanders (ADP: 112): Sanders looks like he is back and should be the top wide receiver in Denver.
Tyrell Williams (ADP: 121): If you are leery of Antonio Brown, you should be all over Williams. He is the clear No. 2 in Oakland and has looked capable of being a strong fantasy option.
Michael Gallup (ADP: 126): Speaking of clear No. 2, Gallup has definitely established he is at worst the No. 2 target in Dallas. With Amari Cooper slowed by a foot injury, there is some extra upside here that isn’t yet fully baked into Gallup’s ADP.
John Brown (ADP: 132): Brown continues to make a slow and steady rise. Brown should be Buffalo’s top receiver and is going to have some big weeks given his deep speed and Josh Allen’s big arm.
Jamison Crowder (ADP: 138): Crowder would be a prime beneficiary should Sam Darnold make a big leap forward. He is going to be a high-volume guy in the slot and it wouldn’t shock if he put up numbers similar to Jarvis Landry (who is going six rounds earlier).
Deebo Samuel (ADP: 167): We saw Samuel’s speed and big-play ability on an end around for a long gain in the last preseason game. The rookie is capable of having the type of big spike weeks that are your goal for any late-round best-ball target.