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The Cowboys (vs. Giants), Saints (vs. Texans), Seahawks (vs. Bengals), Chargers (v. Colts), and Eagles (vs. Washington) are all at least touchdown favorites to open the season. However, ambiguity abounds for the running games of these offenses, including Melvin Gordon, Ezekiel Elliott, and potential committees with Seattle and Philadelphia. What is the play among these backfields?
Dan Hindery
I would argue the Seahawks backfield has moved from ambiguous to relatively straight forward over the last few weeks. For a while, it looked like Rashaad Penny would be the 1B to Chris Carson’s 1A. However, every report from camp the last three weeks has been that Carson looks like the clear No. 1. Carson was fantastic down the stretch of 2018 and has picked up where he left off. Meanwhile, Penny hasn’t made the leap many expected. In addition to projecting to see a heavy workload as a runner, Seattle’s coordinator Brian Schottenheimer has been insistent that he will get Carson more involved as a receiver. The Bengals defense was atrocious against opposing running backs last season, so this looks like a really strong spot for Carson.
Phil Alexander
Cowboys and Chargers - As of this writing, we'll have to wait and see if Ezekiel Elliott and Melvin Gordon will suit up in Week 1, but we should have our answers well ahead of lineup lock. If Elliott is active, I expect him to get a full workload in a blowout win and will roster him accordingly. Should Elliott remain in Cabo for the season opener, Tony Pollard is a free square on PPR sites. I can't see the oft-injured Gordon getting a full workload after missing all of training camp, so I'll have zero exposure even if he reports. Austin Ekeler is in play on PPR sites with or without Gordon, but he isn't exactly a bargain around the industry.
Seahawks - As Dan said, there is little ambiguity here. Carson is the locked-in starter and he's in a terrific spot with Seattle the heaviest home favorite on the slate. The crowd is more likely to pile on Dalvin Cook and Kerryon Johnson in the same price tier (DraftKings), making Carson an attractive tournament option.
Eagles - This one is tricky. I am fully confident Philadelphia is going to blow Washington's doors off, which means either Jordan Howard or Miles Sanders is in an excellent position for a big game. I'll have exposure to both but probably a little more Sanders. When in doubt, choose the more athletic player with pass-catching upside, especially when he's the cheaper option.
Justin Bonnema
Tony Pollard becomes a great play if Elliott ends up missing Week 1. But he’ll drag a ton of ownership with him, so he might also be worth fading in large GPPs if you can stomach it. Regardless of the Cowboys’ backfield, both Kamara and Carson are elite options. The Texans/Saints tilt should deliver tons of scoring and volume. Unfortunately, it’s not on the main slate. That makes Carson the best choice of all given the Seahawks determination to run the ball, their public statements regarding how they want Carson to catch more balls, and their status as massive home favorites against a team that was obliterated by running backs last year and has a first-time defensive coordinator running the show in 2019. They should improve but they’re worth targeting with Carson in Week 1.
BJ VanderWoude
I agree with the statements regarding Tony Pollard. He is a free square in tournaments but the ownership he brings with him will separate you from no one. The play here is Chris Carson. He has a clear path to a high volume of touches in both the running and passing game, and he has the touchdown upside to hit a large multiple on his salary. The Eagles backfield is one that I am going to split some shares between Howard and Sanders, as there is potential for either to do some damage in tournaments. The Eagles have a wide array of targets on offense though, so I would keep my total exposure down because there may only be 80-100 yards and a touchdown total to go between both backs.
Jason Wood
I'm captain of the Chris Carson fan club, so I agree with everyone in touting him. While we all want Rashaad Penny to be a thing, this preseason pointed in the opposite direction. And even if Penny gets a decent snap count, the Seahawks want to lead the league in rushing, and the Bengals should provide them ample opportunity to get off to a hot start.
I would also throw some love in Austin Ekeler's direction. The Colts defense could be dynamic, so there's a risk, but Indianapolis could also be on tilt if Jacoby Brissett isn't the stop-gap Frank Reich and Chris Ballard think he is.
JAMES BRIMACOMBE
I have been on Chris Carson all offseason and in Week 1 I think he is in a smash spot even with Penny lurking. The Seahawks have injuries in the passing game and not much depth but the team has been building the running game and all signs are pointing to them running at a high volume this year regardless of if it is Carson or Penny. Carson should still be in line for 20+ touches and is in a very good matchup against the Bengals.