Each week I take a look at every NFL game in an attempt to identify players that can be stacked together to maximize value in GPP play at FanDuel and DraftKings. I examine spreads and totals for each game as well as the implied totals and blend that with the likeliest script that these games will follow. In doing so, I attempt to find players that can pay dividends for your lineup. In some cases, I will also provide a pivot within the stack to another player and give reasons as to why a pivot might make sense. You can use this information as a guide, and you will have multiple options to help you to sort through the noise while you put lineups together that can offer a degree of security.
Note: I will be using last year’s statistics (DVOA and team stats from nfl.com) as data points in the article. Rosters have changed, and there are new players and schemes to consider, but it gives us a peek at something tangible while 2019 data is collected.
RISK-AVERSE STACKS
FanDuel: Winston ($7,500) + Evans ($7,900) = $15,400
DraftKings: Winston ($6,600) + Evans ($7,900) = $14,500
Facing 2018 No. 27 ranked DVOA pass defense - 2018 No. 11 ranked pass defense allowing 233.2 yards per game
Game Total - 50
Implied Totals - Buccaneers at 25.5 points and 49ers at 24.5 points
Game Line - Tampa Bay Buccaneers -1
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers bring the San Francisco 49ers to town on Sunday for an NFC matchup in Week 1. This matchup has shootout potential as both teams struggled on defense last year, and both teams have offenses that can easily out points on the board.
The 49ers are vulnerable through the air, and Evans has established himself as the No. 1 target in the Buccaneers passing attack. Evans will see plenty of targets, and he has a chance to have a big game to open the season. He wins in the vertical game, and new head coach Bruce Arians’ scheme fits Evans’ game to a tee.
The 49ers gave up 35 touchdowns to the passing game last year which was second-most in the NFL. While they did not give up significant amounts of yardage last year, they bled plays where it matters from a fantasy purpose.
Evans was targeted 138 times last season, catching 86 passes for 1524 yards and eight scores. There is an expectation that he should see more from a volume perspective this year, and he can pay considerable dividends in Arians’ passing attack, starting this week in what looks to be a shootout-type affair.
Interestingly, the Buccaneers will need to keep Winston protected as pressure is a problem, and Arians wants his quarterbacks taking 5-step and seven-step drops in the pocket. This takes time and allows for vertical routes to develop, but the protection must be there, and the offensive line has a nice matchup this week against a team that registered only 37 sacks last year. Only seven teams in the NFL had fewer sacks than the 49ers last year.
Pivot: Wide receiver Chris Godwin ($6,900 at FanDuel and $6,200 at DraftKings) is a very savvy play as well. Godwin will also benefit from the new offensive scheme, and he will be a very productive asset in this offense.
Rostering tight end O.J. Howard ($6,500 at FanDuel and $5,000 at DraftKings) gives you a piece of what should be a high scoring game and relieves some of the salary you would have to pay to roster a premier tight end.
Jimmy Garoppolo + George Kittle
FanDuel: Garoppolo ($7,200) + Kittle ($7,300) = $14,500
DraftKings: Garoppolo ($5,800) + Kittle ($6,600) = $12,400
Facing 2018 No. 30 ranked DVOA pass defense - 2018 No. 26 ranked pass defense allowing 259.4 yards per game
Game Total - 50
Implied Totals - 49ers at 24.5 points and Buccaneers at 25.5 points
Game Line - San Francisco 49ers +1
The San Francisco 49ers are on the road in Week 1 as they square off against the Tamp Bay Buccaneers in an NFC matchup. This game has the third-highest total of the week (50), and both teams should be able to put points on the board in this game.
Kittle emerged last year as one of the game’s premier tight ends and is a matchup nightmare for the opposition. He is the No. 1 option as a pass catcher in the 49ers offense. There are unanswered questions about his chemistry with Garoppolo, but his abilities are undeniable.
The 49ers want to be an explosive offense, and they have playmakers all over the field, but Kittle should lead the way in volume as he is too great a mismatch for the defense. The Buccaneers gave up 34 scores through the air last year, which was third-most in the NFL. Also, the Buccaneers were the league’s No. 28 ranked DVOA defense versus the tight end in 2018.
Kittle should be heavily involved as a pass-catcher for the 49ers, and he has a chance to get off to a great start against the Buccaneers in Week 1.
Pivot: 49ers wide receivers Dante Pettis ($6,500 at FanDuel and $5,400 at DraftKings) and Deebo Samuel ($5,200 at FanDuel and $4,000 at DraftKings) are both exciting options in this matchup. Pettis is listed as questionable with a groin injury, and his status needs clarity, so pay attention to the practice reports as Sunday nears. Both have a chance to start the season off with a bang, and if Pettis misses the game, it makes Samuel a potentially brilliant salary-saving play.
Patrick Mahomes II + Tyreek Hill
FanDuel: Mahomes ($8,700) + Hill ($7,600) = $16,300
DraftKings: Mahomes ($7,200) + Hill ($7,600) = $14,800
Facing 2018 No. 6 ranked DVOA pass defense - 2018 No. 2 ranked pass defense allowing 194.6 yards per game
Game Total - 52
Implied Totals - Chiefs at 28 points and Jaguars at 24 points
Game Line - Kansas City Chiefs -3.5
The Kansas City Chiefs face the Jacksonville Jaguars in Florida on Sunday for a pivotal AFC matchup in Week 1. This game has the second-highest total of the week (52), and the forecast calls for both teams to score enough to keep the offenses rolling in this matchup.
The Chiefs have an incredibly potent offense, and while regression is being talked about, it is tough to see where the Chiefs are weaker in 2019 that they were last year when Mahomes and company lit a match to just about everyone they faced.
This is not a great matchup, but the reality is the Chiefs offense is explosive with weapons all over the field, and they have the second-highest implied total of the week. The expectation is four touchdowns, and that makes them a very intriguing offense for Week 1. Also, Mahomes might have a little extra time to pick apart the Jaguars on Sunday. The Jaguars had trouble in the sack department in 2018, registering only 37 sacks which were eighth-fewest in the NFL.
Hill is an elite vertical weapon, capable of taking the top off of the defense in a flash. He is a big play waiting to happen, and it does not take a significant number of targets for him to get to value. Hill was targeted 137 times last year, catching 87 passes for 1479 yards while scoring 12 times. He is one of the focal points of the Chiefs offense and has a chance to shine in Week 1.
Pivot: Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce ($7,800 at FanDuel and $7,100 at DraftKings) is the game’s premier pass-catching tight end and he is a week-to-week threat because of his ability to stretch the field and win with the ball in the air. Kelce has a chance to have a big start to the season. Wide receiver Sammy Watkins ($6,300 at FanDuel and $5,000 at DraftKings) is an interesting pivot away from Hill, but he still gets you a piece of the action in this high-scoring contest.
FanDuel: Foles ($6,500) Westbrook ($5,900) = $12,400
DraftKings: Foles ($5,300) Westbrook ($4,800) = $10,100
Facing 2018 No. 12 ranked DVOA pass defense - 2018 No. 31 ranked pass defense allowing 273.4 yards per game
Game Total - 52
Implied Totals - Jaguars at 24 points and Chiefs at 28 points
Game Line - Jacksonville Jaguars +3.5
The Jacksonville Jaguars bring the Kansas City Chiefs to town on Sunday for an AFC matchup in Week 1. This game has the second-highest total of the week, and the Jaguars will have to put points on the board to stay with the Chiefs in this contest.
The Jaguars moved on from quarterback Blake Bortles, bringing in veteran Nick Foles to replace him, and there is hope that move brings more stability and playmaking to the offense. Foles is a very capable signal-caller, and he should make the Jaguars offense more productive than it has been over the past few seasons.
We still need to see it to be crystal clear on whom the primary target will be in the Jaguars passing attack, but the expectation is that it will be Westbrook leading the way. He is a savvy route runner capable of exploiting coverage to all areas of the field, and he has a chance to be very productive this week against the Chiefs.
The Chiefs were worst in the NFL last year giving up passing plays of 20-plus yards, surrendering 65 such plays. The game script calls for the Chiefs to push the pace and score enough points which will force the Jaguars offense and Foles to keep throwing the ball, and the Chiefs are vulnerable in the back end of their defense.
Pivot: Wide receiver D.J. Chark Jr. ($4,900 at FanDuel and $3,300 at DraftKings) is a cheap dart-throw type of play in what should be a high scoring game. His price allows you to load up elsewhere and that can give you a significant edge over the field.
HIGHER RISK STACKS
Matthew Stafford + Marvin Jones
FanDuel: Stafford ($6,600) + Jones ($6,100) = $12,300
DraftKings: Stafford ($5,400) + Jones ($4,800) = $10,200
Facing 2018 No. 8 ranked DVOA pass defense - 2018 No. 4 ranked pass defense allowing 203.9 yards per game
Game Total - 48
Implied Totals - Lions at 25 points and Cardinals at 23 points
Game Line - Detroit Lions -2.5
The Detroit Lions travel to Arizona on Sunday to face the Cardinals in a very intriguing Week 1 matchup. The Lions are a 2.5-point favorite on the road, and the passing game is in a favorable situation against a secondary dealing with significant injuries and a suspension to star cornerback Patrick Peterson.
Most of the focus will be on the Lions running attack in this matchup, but there is a path that gets Stafford heavily involved in this game. We have not seen the Cardinals pick up their pace of play in the preseason, and they are going to want to run as many offensive snaps as they can.
If the Cardinals offense is successful early, it will force the Lions to get Stafford involved, and he should feast on the Cardinals secondary. Stafford has a chance to have a huge game, but the risk is entirely in the hands of the Cardinals offense. Can they force the Lions into opening up their passing attack?
To a certain extent, the Lions should be able to pick apart the Cardinals defense in whatever way it wishes, but the Cardinals offense is the wild card here. I am banking on them playing to a pace that makes it hard on the defense, and while super risky, grabbing a share of the Lions passing attack could turn out to be a savvy play.
Pivot: Lions wide receiver Kenny Golladay ($6,900 at FanDuel and $6,300 at DraftKings) is a big-play threat because of his ability to make vertical plays down the field by winning with the ball in the air. The Lions are going to utilize play action, and they will take vertical shots down the field under new offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell. That fits Golladay’s game entirely, and he has a chance to shine in Week 1.
DEFENSE/RB STACKS
Chris Carson + Seahawks Defense
FanDuel: Carson ($6,600) + Seahawks ($4,500) = $11,100
DraftKings: Carson ($5,700) + Seahawks ($3,100) = $8,800
Facing 2018 No. 26 ranked DVOA rush defense - 2018 No. 29 ranked run defense allowing 137.8 yards per game
Game Total - 44
Implied Totals - Seahawks at 26.5 points and Bengals at 17.5 points
Game Line - Seattle Seahawks -9
The Seattle Seahawks are at home versus the Cincinnati Bengals on Sunday afternoon for a Week 1 matchup. The Seahawks are a nine-point home favorite, and they should have little problems handling the Bengals on both sides of the ball.
The Seahawks are loaded on defense, and they will bring significant pressure on Bengals quarterback Andy Dalton. The game script calls for the Bengals to be behind and throwing, and there is potential for plenty of sacks. It is not out of the realm to see the Bengals turn over the ball too.
The game script looks outstanding for Carson as the Seahawks should be up and pounding the ball while killing time in the second half of this game. The Bengals allowed 17 rushing touchdowns last year, and only five teams across the league allowed more. Carson is a big, downhill runner, and he should be more productive as the contest wears on, and he should also find the endzone this week.
Both sides of this stack have a chance to be extremely productive, and it is an excellent option in Week 1.
Mark Ingram + Ravens Defense
FanDuel: Ingram ($6,600) + Ravens ($5,000) = $11,600
DraftKings: Ingram ($5,100) + Ravens ($3,800) = $8,900
Facing 2018 No. 24 ranked DVOA rush defense - 2018 No. 31 ranked pass defense allowing 145.3 yards per game
Game Total - 37.5
Implied Totals - Ravens at 22 points and Bengals at 15.5 points
Game Line - Baltimore Ravens -7
The Baltimore Ravens go on the road to take on the Miami Dolphins in a Week 1 AFC matchup. The Ravens are a seven-point road favorite, and they will be productive on offense as the implied number has them over three touchdowns.
The Ravens defense will look to pressure the Dolphins and should be in a position to generate sacks and turnovers. The Dolphins offensive line is a weakness, and the Ravens will have their way up front, forcing Dolphins quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick into making pressure throws.
The Dolphins allowed 17 rushing touchdowns last year, and only five teams league-wide allowed more. The Dolphins were one of the worst run defenses in the NFL last year, and their offensive situation will expose that weak unit all year. Ingram should feast on the Dolphins defense this week, and he is in store for a big day.
