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Each week I take a look at every NFL game in an attempt to identify players that can be stacked together to maximize value in GPP play at FanDuel and DraftKings. I examine the spreads and totals for each game as well as the implied totals for each team and blend that with the likeliest script that these games will follow. In doing so, I attempt to find players that can pay dividends for your lineup. In some cases, I will also provide a pivot within the stack to another player and give reasons as to why a pivot might make sense. You can use this information as a guide, and you will have multiple options to help you to sort through the noise while you put lineups together that can offer a degree of security.
RISK-AVERSE STACKS
Patrick Mahomes II + Sammy Watkins
FanDuel: Mahomes ($9,200) + Watkins ($7,100) = $16,300
DraftKings: Mahomes ($7,600) + Watkins ($6,800) = $14,400
Game Total - 55.5
Implied Totals - Chiefs at 31 points and Ravens at 24.5 points
Game Line - Kansas City Chiefs -6.5
The Kansas City Chiefs bring the Baltimore Ravens to Arrowhead Stadium on Sunday for a potential AFC shootout in Week 3. This game has the highest total of the week at 55.5 points, and it appears that both teams will put points on the board looking at the implied totals for each squad. The Chiefs have the third-highest implied total of the week (31), and they are off to an explosive start to the 2019 season.
The Ravens are a middle of the pack pass defense allowing 254 yards per game, but they have been hit via the big play. They have yielded 10 passing plays of 20-plus yards which is fourth-most in the NFL. The Chiefs win attacking vertically, and the Ravens are soft there.
As mentioned above, there is an expectation that this game will be a high-scoring affair, and that means great things for a Chiefs offense that is already clicking on all cylinders. The Ravens are forecast to score enough to keep Mahomes attacking the defense with his arm, and that means great things for his skill-position players.
Watkins has taken on a large share of the passing-game volume with wide receiver Tyreek Hill out. He has earned Mahomes’ trust, and he will continue to be very valuable as long as he sees the kind of volume he has through two weeks.
Watkins has seen 24 total targets through two weeks, and he has converted 15 of them into catches. He has registered 247 yards and three scores through two weeks, and he does not look to be slowing at all. The hope here is that the Ravens offense can push the Chiefs offense to keep them throwing the football.
Pivot: Wide receiver Demarcus Robinson ($6,700 at FanDuel and $5,200 at DraftKings) went off last with, converting all six targets he saw into catches while registering 172 yards and two scores. He is a flier, but he is worthy of consideration.
Wide receiver Mecole Hardman ($6,300 at FanDuel and $5,000 at DraftKings) scored last week, and he also had a very long touchdown reception called back. He may be the best option because of his price, but you’re taking on risk with a lesser target share. However, he is capable of making big plays down the field, and Mahomes is looking for him.
Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce ($8,000 at FanDuel and $7,100 at DraftKings) tore up the Raiders last week, catching seven passes for 107 yards and a score. He is a costly option, but he is also a considerable part of the Chiefs offense.
Lamar Jackson + Marquise Brown
FanDuel: Jackson ($8,500) + Brown ($6,100) = $14,600
DraftKings: Jackson ($7,000) + Brown ($5,900) = $12,900
Game Total - 55.5
Implied Totals - Ravens at 24.5 points and Chiefs at 31 points
Game Line - Baltimore Ravens +6.5
The Baltimore Ravens face the Kansas City Chiefs on the road this week, and they will be forced to score points to stay in this game with the Chiefs. There is no game in the NFL with a higher total than this one, and this game has shootout potential written all over it.
Jackson has proved doubters wrong through the season’s first two weeks as he has thrown with great accuracy. He is responsible for seven touchdowns passing through two weeks, and just last week he showed how dangerous he could be when he decides to run.
The game script calls for a heavy dose of Jackson throwing to keep pace, but he will also boost his value by using his legs when necessary. The Chiefs are not a great pass defense, and the script is so positive that Jackson could have a huge day this week.
Brown has torched defenses with his ability to win vertically, and he has been incredibly valuable without needing an enormous number of targets. He is an assassin with his speed, but he is also a strong route runner capable of setting up defenders to then streak past them.
Brown exploded in Week 1 with four catches, 147 yards and two scores on five targets. He played more in Week 2 and was targeted 13 times, catching eight passes for 86 yards. He is more than worthy if he is going to see that kind of target share this week.
Pivot: Tight end Mark Andrews ($6,800 at FanDuel and $4,600 at DraftKings) is an exciting option in Week 3 as he has been targeted 17 times through two weeks, scoring two touchdowns on 16 catches to go with 220 yards. Andrews is proving to be a dangerous weapon for the Ravens, but he is listed as questionable with a foot injury as of this writing. Monitor his status throughout the week to make sure he is ready to play Sunday.
FanDuel: Prescott ($8,400) + Cooper ($7,700) = $16,100
DraftKings: Prescott ($6,500) + Cooper ($7,500) = $14,000
Game Total - 47.5
Implied Totals - Cowboys at 34 points and Dolphins at 13.5 points
Game Line - Dallas Cowboys -21
The Dallas Cowboys are at home on Sunday as they bring in the Miami Dolphins in what is being forecast as a high scoring game, but that scoring may only come from the Dallas side of the ledger. The Cowboys are forecast to score almost five touchdowns as they have the highest implied number for any team in Week 3.
Prescott has been fantastic to start the season as he has thrown for 674 yards and seven scores to go with 81 rushing yards through two weeks. He has made it look easy, and that will continue this week.
The Dolphins are a mess as they have allowed 102 points in two weeks, and they are surrendering an 11.9-yard average which is worst in the NFL. They have yielded eight scores through the air, which also worst in the NFL. Only three teams have allowed more 20-plus yard passing plays, and it is easy to see the path for productivity for Prescott and the passing attack.
Cooper is the first option in the Cowboys passing game, and he has scored a touchdown in each of the season’s first two games. He has seen 14 targets in two games and has converted 10 into catches for 150 yards to go with the two scores mentioned above.
Prescott and Cooper should be able to hook up in this game as the Dolphins have been a swinging gate against the pass to start the season.
Pivot: Wide Receiver Devin Smith ($5,200 at FanDuel and $3,400 at DraftKings) is intriguing as a vertical threat. He can get to GPP value relatively quickly at his price, and he is worth rostering if you are willing to throw the dart.
HIGH-RISK STACKS
FanDuel: Brady ($7,800) + Edelman ($6,900) = $14,700
DraftKings: Brady ($6,600) + Edelman ($6,300) = $12,900
Game Total - 46.5
Implied Totals - Patriots at 32.5 points and Jets at 14 points
Game Line - New England Patriots -18.5
The New England Patriots are at home in Week 3 for an AFC East game against the short-handed New York Jets. The Patriots should have their way with the Jets this week as the Jets are down two quarterbacks with Sam Darnold out with mono and Trevor Siemian out with lower leg injuries. The Jets are starting Luke Falk this week, and the Patriots should be able to take apart their opponent with ease.
The Patriots have the second-highest implied number in Week 3, and Brady should be able to carve apart the Jets secondary in this game. Brady is still an elite quarterback, and he has very potent weapons at his disposal. The Patriots are forecast to score almost five touchdowns, and Brady should be able to do what he wants to do in this contest.
Edelman is a security blanket for Brady as he gets open quickly with very precise route-running ability, and he can threaten defenses with his ability to run after the catch. Edelman has to contend with others on the roster for targets, but he’ll draw lesser players in coverage and will be able to exploit that this week.
The Jets have given up 11 passing plays of 20-plus yards through two weeks which is third-most in the NFL. The Jets are susceptible, and the Patriots will have plenty of opportunities to score in this game. If they use their aerial attack this week, then this stack could be incredibly valuable.
However, there is risk associated here as the Patriots may decide to stay on the ground and put the ball into the end zone via their ground game. You need to be comfortable about the usage of the passing attack, but a positive is that others may stay away from rostering Brady and company thinking that the running game will be prioritized. It is a contrarian type of play but one worthy with the implied number being so high.
Note: Brady is listed as questionable with a calf injury as of this writing. Make sure he practices throughout the week to ensure he will play Sunday.
Pivot: Wide receivers Antonio Brown ($7,700 at FanDuel and $7,100 at DraftKings) and Josh Gordon ($6,000 at FanDuel and $5,400 at DraftKings) are both intriguing options this week with the script so favorable for the Patriots offense.
RB/DST STACKS
Sony Michel + Patriots Defense
FanDuel: Michel ($6,800) Patriots ($5,000) = $11,800
DraftKings: Michel ($6,000) Patriots ($3,800) = $9,800
Game Total - 46.5
Implied Totals - Patriots at 32.5 points and Jets at 14 points
Game Line - New England Patriots -18.5
The New England Patriots are at home on Sunday to take on the New York Jets in a Week 3 AFC East matchup of teams heading in different directions. The Patriots are an 18.5-point home favorite, and the implied number has them nearing five scores. It is not hard to see a path for Michel to be super productive in this contest.
The game script looks outstanding for Michel as he faces a Jets defense that has allowed two scores on the ground through the season’s first two weeks. The Patriots running backs should see a large amount of work in this game as the Patriots are so heavily favored.
Michel can get untracked in this contest with an uptick in volume. The game script for Michel could not be more positive, and he could be in line for a massive day on Sunday.
The Jets are starting quarterback Luke Falk with starter Sam Darnold and backup Trevor Siemian both out. The Patriots defense will have plenty of opportunities to make plays and put up fantasy points as Falk will struggle to deal with the different looks the Patriots will throw at him.
The Jets have a meager implied number at 14 points, and it is tough to see them not getting blown out in this game. It is unlikely they score enough to hang in this game, which means plenty of passes from the Jets and significant opportunity for the Patriots defense.
We could see multiple turnovers, and there is potential for a big play or two from the Patriots defense, and coupled with Michel, it is easy to see this stack outperforming its price to become an excellent value for GPP play in Week 3.
Ezekiel Elliott + Cowboys Defense
FanDuel: Elliott ($8,800) Cowboys ($5,000) = $13,800
DraftKings: Elliott ($8,900) Cowboys ($4,300) = $13,200
Game Total - 47.5
Implied Totals - Cowboys at 34 points and Dolphins at 13.5 points
Game Line - Dallas Cowboys -21
The Dallas Cowboys are at home on Sunday, bringing in the Miami Dolphins for a Week 3 matchup of teams heading in completely different directions. The Cowboys are a 21-point favorite at home, and the implied number has them almost at five scores. Elliott could have a monster day as he should be super productive in this contest.
The game script looks outstanding for Elliott as he faces a Dolphins defense that allowed 389 yards (most in the NFL) and four scores (tied for most in the NFL) on the ground through two weeks. The Dolphins have defended 81 rushing attempts in two games which mean the opposition has been up and running to drain the clock, and that is precisely what should happen in Week 3.
Elliott should have an easy time running the ball while also catching passes to boost his value, and he will be one of the best options at the running back position in Week 2. The Dolphins are going to have a hard time finding an answer for Elliott and the Cowboys ground game.
The Dolphins are playing quarterbacks Ryan Fitzpatrick and Josh Rosen, and that means the Cowboys defense will get chances to make plays and put up fantasy points as Fitzpatrick will put the ball into dangerous areas of the field. The Dolphins have a very low implied number at 13.5 points, and they are likely getting routed in Week 3. The game script has the Dolphins down big, and that means they will be throwing the ball to get back in the game. The Patriots were the beneficiary last week, and this week it is the Cowboys getting the benefit.
We could see multiple turnovers, and there is potential for a big play or two from the Cowboys defense, and coupled with Elliott, it is easy to see this stack outperforming its price to become an excellent value for GPP play in Week 3.
