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The beginning of the season means minimal data points with which to work. The NFL preseason devolved into few breadcrumbs on offenses, roles, etc. What is your general approach to lineup building especially in Week 1 - are you more willing to play it safe with projected roles, usage, and offensive team strength, or take chances with bolder calls as there will be massive change post-Week 1 on the horizon?
Dan Hindery
Late in the season, you need to lean heavily on the data. In Week 1, it makes sense to take a less analytical approach. If you believe Curtis Samuel is poised to take a big leap heading into his third season, play him. If your gut feeling is that Andy Reid is going to give Damien Williams a real shot over the first few weeks to see what he can do in a true lead back role in Kansas City, play him.
Phil Alexander
Remember to leverage your strong takes as much as possible (this week and every week). If you don't buy into Arizona's offensive renaissance under Kyler Murray and Kliff Kingsbury, for example, fading them is not the only way to get over on the crowd. A Cardinals faceplant would likely mean a big game for the lightly-owned Lions defense. Coming in overweight on Kerryon Johnson in this scenario also makes sense, as you're banking on Detroit salting away an easy win.
Script each game, make sure your lineups tell a consistent story, and you'll get the maximum return when your intuitions prove correct.
Justin Bonnema
BJ VanderWoude
Jason Wood
In terms of executing the model, I personally like to go big in cash games on my strongest takes, consensus or otherwise, and then in GPPs focus on hitting my most contrarian takes before they become consensus.
I do think it's also important to remind our subscribers how important bankroll management is, particularly early in the season. It can be so exciting to have NFL DFS back we can overspend in the first week on pure adrenaline. Let's remember, even the smartest analysts are going to look dumb on a big chunk of their preseason takes, so be careful not to extend yourself on "can't miss" hot takes.
James Brimacombe
Week 1 feels like the perfect time to fade the projected high owned players for those that project similar in points scored but at lower ownerships. It is a week to play GPP's and to get off some of the chalky plays. If you are playing it safe for Cash games your lineups will be very similar to your opponents as the chalk is the strongest in Week 1 as pricing has been out for so long and hasn't adjusted to all the new information over the past few weeks. I think you can also look at WR2 types on teams in good matchups just to be different, players like Ridley, Godwin, Landry, Mike Williams, and Watkins all come to mind.
