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DRAFTKINGS MAIN SLATE BREAKDOWN: COLLEGE WEEK 4
Week four in the college football season provides one of the deepest slate of games from start to finish thus far this season. There is no shortage of competitive college football throughout the day, with Michigan taking on Wisconsin at noon and Georgia hosting Notre Dame at 8:00 PM ET. Sadly, this main slate of games on DraftKings features one of the lowest-scoring collections of games for any main slate in recent memory. In the midst of a bevy of low-scoring games, a small handful of situations stand out as especially strong spots to target in either cash games or tournaments, specifically. It's going to be another long Saturday of quality college football with long-term implications on various conference championship pictures and, ultimately, the College Football Playoff. Best of luck to all playing DFS this weekend, and let's sit back, enjoy the football, and make some money along the way.
NOTE: There are a few critical injury situations that may have massive implications for fantasy lineups on this slate. This article will be updated in red font under each position as necessary. I will send a tweet immediately following any updates from @ThaGreatZambino.
STRATEGY NOTE
There is one fundamental difference between NFL DFS and College Football DFS, and that is lineup construction. A college football removes the tight end and defense positions from a lineup and replaces them one super flex position. The super flex position can be filled by a quarterback, running back, or wide receiver. On nearly every single slate throughout the year rostering a second quarterback in the super flex position will be optimal in both cash games and tournaments. Keep this in mind all year when building lineups.
SLATE SNAPSHOT
Listed here are the most notable games for DFS purposes. In green are games with the highest projected totals, according to betting markets, and in red are the games with the lowest projected totals on the slate. Try to avoid using too many players in any single lineup from the game(s) in red. On the other hand, the game(s) in green should provide enough points and fantasy points across the board to make multiple pieces on each team viable for fantasy lineups
- MICHIGAN STATE @ NORTHWESTERN | MICHIGAN STATE -9.5, TOTAL: 37.5
- MICHIGAN @ WISCONSIN | WISCONSIN -3.5, TOTAL: 44.5
- CALIFORNIA @ OLE MISS | OLE MISS -2.5, TOTAL: 41.5
- LSU @ VANDERBILT | LSU -24, TOTAL: 62.5
- LOUISVILLE @ FLORIDA STATE | FLORIDA STATE -6.5, TOTAL: 61
2:35 PM ET UPDATE
Louisville quarterback Jawon Pass has been announced OUT for the game against Florida State. In his place, Malik Cunningham will take over under-center. Cunningham is a run-first quarterback with far less arm talent than Jawon Pass. This change downgrades the Louisville passing attack as a whole, but Cunningham himself at $5,800 is an elite play in all formats. Running quarterbacks are incredible fantasy options, and Cunningham exemplifies this.
This information also slightly downgrades Chatarius Atwell's viability at wide receiver. The volume will still be there, but from a far less impressive quarterback. The price is still way too low at just $4,400, but he drops from an elite play to merely a really really really strong play on this slate with the news of Jawon Pass NOT playing.
QUARTERBACK
PRIMARY OPTIONS
Joe Burrow, $8,500
Much has been made of Joe Burrow's drastic year-to-year improvement in 2019's new-look LSU offense. Burrow has ascended to the top of the board in the "2019 Heisman winner" futures betting market after three straight games with at least 350 yards or 4 touchdowns. In week four, Joe Burrow checks in as the second-most expensive quarterback on the main slate behind Tua Tagovailoa. At $8,500, LSU's emerging star gets another strong matchup against one of the weakest teams in the SEC, the Vanderbilt Commodores. Vanderbilt sports an especially weak defense, with the 84th-ranked unit in the nation according to SP+. This game also features very little expected blowout risk that would potentially remove Joe Burrow from the field. LSU follows up this SEC matchup with a bye week in week five, followed by a home matchup against an overmatched Utah State team from the Mountain West Conference. The Tigers' offense should finally get a full game of pedal-to-the-metal football in against a team ranked outside the top 25. Look for Joe Burrow to top the charts at the end of the week with gaudy passing numbers as he pads his stat line hoping to ultimately end up in New York for the Heisman Trophy ceremony come season's end.
James Blackman, $6,500
The Florida State Seminoles have improved leaps and bounds offensively from where they were just one year ago. The true weakness of this team is on the defensive side of the football- where they still struggle to defend anyone and everyone they face. Fortunately, both of those traits favor the team's quarterback James Blackman for fantasy purposes as they will consistently turn games into shootouts. Florida State's new offensive coordinator, Kendal Briles, is an offensive genius. Briles has consistently coached the nation's most prolific offenses while at Baylor, Florida Atlantic, Houston, and now at Florida State. Briles favors an up-tempo attack predicated on spreading the defense out and creating mismatches. Equipped with some of the nation's best athletes at both running back and wide receiver, Briles has had a field day with his new shiny toys on offense (aside from one tough road loss to the underrated Virginia Cavaliers.) Blackman has thrown for 3 touchdowns in each of the first 3 games, while also topping 250 passing yards in each of the first 2, and in week four the Seminoles take on a rebuilding Louisville program. While Louisville is one of the best-coached teams in the nation, the Cardinals lack the talent to shut down a high-scoring offense like Florida State's, especially on the road. Before ultimately losing the job, Louisville's former-head coach, Bobby Petrino, effectively quit recruiting. This mind-boggling decision leaves Louisville's roster bereft of the veteran talent that is extremely valuable to winning at any level of college football, especially against top-tier ACC opponents. Florida State should light up the scoreboard once again in week four at home against a rebuilding Louisville program. Florida State's talent advantage, coupled with the friendly confines of Doak Campbell stadium, as well as arguably the nation's best offensive play-caller, should lead James Blackman to another impressive fantasy performance. At $6,500, a score of 20-to-25 DraftKings points makes Blackman a viable play in all formats, and he should have no trouble reaching the low-end of that range in an up-tempo, high-scoring affair.
SECONDARY OPTION
Ryan Hilinski, $6,300
Following a season-ending injury to South Carolina's incumbent starter, Jake Bentley, Ryan Hilinski, a highly-touted freshman recruit, was thrown into the fire as the team's new starting quarterback. Hilinski answered the call and has impressed in his two games calling the signals for the Gamecocks. In his debut for the team, Hilinski shredded an FCS Charleston Southern defense, as he was expected to, and completed 80-percent of his passes on the day. In his second outing against arguably the nation's best defense, the Alabama Crimson Tide, Hilinski shockingly posted impressive numbers once again. The freshman finished the day with 324 passing yards, 2 touchdowns, and just 1 interception- totaling 21.46 DraftKings points. To start his collegiate career, Ryan Hilinski has proven that he will take on all comers and he has the ability to post impressive numbers against the best of the best. His third career start comes against a Missouri Tigers defense that has yet to be tested by an SEC-caliber offense. Missouri stumbled in a flukey week one loss at Wyoming, beat a horrid West Virginia team in week two, and took on an FCS opponent in a tune-up before starting SEC action. South Carolina enters this game, especially with Hilinski under center, with an offense, unlike anything Missouri has seen to start the year. While the Gamecocks may not be favored in the game, the betting market certainly respects their offense with an implied team total above 26 points on the road. As an untested unit, Missouri's defense is a highly-variant situation: there is a strong chance that their performance will differ significantly from what we've seen to this point in the season. If the Tigers' defense falters here in week four, Ryan Hilinski will have the South Carolina offense as ready as ever to capitalize on those mistakes. Hilinski is one of the slate's best value options, especially in tournaments where he will likely go overlooked.
RUNNING BACK
PRIMARY OPTIONS
Javian Hawkins, $4,400
Louisville's starting running back, Javian Hawkins, earned the nickname "PlayStation" from his teammates as a testament to the way he bounces around the field as if he is being controlled by a joystick or PlayStation controller. At just 5'9" and 182-pounds, Hawkins is one of the smallest and shiftiest players in all of power-five football. Through three games as the starting running back, Hawkins has been uber consistent as a fantasy running back with 15.2, 15.3, and 15.3 DraftKings points in each of the season's first three games, respectively. Over these games, Hawkins has surpassed the 100-yard mark twice and tallied one more game with 92-yards and a touchdown. In the fourth game of the season, Hawkins and the Louisville Cardinals head to Tallahassee to take on a reeling Florida State defense that has yet to hold an opponent under 31-points this season. Even UL-Monroe posted 44-points on the road in Doak Campbell Stadium in week two. While Louisville lacks the depth that will likely be necessary to hang with the Seminoles for a full four-quarters of football, the Cardinals' offense will get ample opportunity to put points on the board. Florida State's new offense attempts to maximize offensive production through an up-tempo spread attack. One side effect of the up-tempo offense is that the opposition is given the same opportunity to maximize their offensive play-count, and a play-caller of Scott Satterfield's quality will almost certainly capitalize on this. Louisville's offense will see more of the ball in week four than in virtually any other game this season, which maximizes the fantasy viability of Javian Hawkins and the rest of the offense's weapons. At $4,400, Hawkins is an elite value play on a slate that is mostly lacking in quality salary-saving options.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire, $6,100
Through three games in 2019, Clyde Edwards-Helaire and the LSU starters have played the entire 60-minutes just once: on the road against the Texas Longhorns. Edwards-Helaire carried the ball 15 times in the game while all other running backs on the roster totaled 4 carries, signaling just how far ahead of the pack he is on the depth chart. The game against Texas ultimately turned into a 45-38 shootout, heavily favoring the passing game over the running game on both sides. Edwards-Helaire still managed to post 20.2 DraftKings points on his 15 carries the number-12 team in the nation, currently. Outside of this marquee matchup, the LSU Tigers have taken on two lower-tier college football teams in Georgia Southern and FCS program, Northwestern State. Edwards-Helaire did not dominate the snaps, nor the touches in the backfield in these games, as the coaching staff got the second and third unit players playing time in two of the least-competitive games the Tigers will play this season. Week four against Vanderbilt will undoubtedly be more competitive than weeks one and three, but it is still a strong matchup for the LSU offense. Vanderbilt's defense ranks 84th in the nation in SP+, which is lower than that of Georgia Southern, whom LSU scored 55-points against in week one. LSU enters this game as 24-point favorites, which is significantly closer than the game against Georgia Southern was. Subsequently, Clyde Edwards-Helaire and the rest of the first-team offense will likely stay on the field substantially longer than they did in the opener. Edwards-Helaire's middle-of-the-road $6,100 is not tough to pay off, especially for a player as efficient and consistent as he is. If Edwards-Helaire reaches 20-DraftKings points on this slate, he is viable in cash-games, and his ceiling in this matchup is one of the highest on the slate, making him a quality tournament option as well, although he will likely be quite popular.
Cam Akers, $7,800
After years splitting carries in a crowded Florida State backfield, Cam Akers is finally the team's go-to option in his junior season. Through three games, Akers' 69 carries are 57 more than the team's second-leading rusher. Akers is a true bell-cow in every sense of the word, and he secured the coveted role in one of the nation's strongest offenses. Akers is thriving in offensive coordinator Kendal Briles' spread offense to the tune of 5.6 yards-per-carry through three games. Akers also has a significant role in Florida State's passing attack, with 11 targets over the team's first 3 games of the season. Briles clearly identified Akers as a critical piece of the team's offense early on, and for good reason. Akers entered college as not only one of the nation's top running back recruits, but one of the top recruits regardless of position in 2017. In his first three games as the go-to-guy on the ground for the Seminoles, Akers has averaged over 30-DraftKings-points-per-game, including a 50.8-point eruption in week two against UL-Monroe. Cam Akers presents the perfect combination of consistency and explosiveness for a top-end running back in DFS. $7,800 is a steep price to pay, but Akers' ability to contribute both on the ground and through the air makes him an elite option against a rebuilding Louisville defense here in week four.
SECONDARY OPTION
Greg McCrae, $6,100
In 2018, Greg McCrae was one of the nation's most electric players with the ball in his hands. McCrae ran for nearly 8.5 yards-per-carry on the season and managed over 1,000 yards and 10 touchdowns on less than 50-percent of the total rushing attempts in the UCF offense. McCrae has continued to create highlights at an eye-popping rate once again in 2019. This season, McCrae has posted 7.4 yards-per-carry and has already found the end zone 3 times on 35 carries. McCrae turned in a measly 5.6 yards-per-carry on his 10 carries in a season-opening blowout against in-state FCS foe, Florida A&M. Since then, McCrae has gone for 93 yards and 1 touchdown in week two, and 109 yards and 1 touchdown in week three. McCrae still splits carries with senior running back Adrian Killins, Jr. in the Golden Knights' backfield, but week four's matchup against one of the nation's weakest defensive lines should provide plenty of opportunity for both players. The Pittsburgh Panthers field one of the worst defensive-fronts in the country, with an opportunity-rate-allowed of 56.0-percent, which ranks 116th nationally. Just last weekend against Penn State, Pitt allowed two running backs to run for at least 6.7-yards-per-carry. As shown by his astronomical per-carry numbers, McCrae does not require a massive number of touches to make an impact on the game. McCrae is a big-play waiting to happen in an offense that is likely to see plenty of success on the ground. For DFS, McCrae's insecure workload and explosiveness with the ball in his hands couple to make an elite tournament play this week. Many will look past Greg McCrae because he is unlikely to see 20+ touches, but if McCrae breaks loose, he may not need even half of that total to end up in a tournament-winning lineup.
WIDE RECEIVER
PRIMARY OPTIONS
Maurice Ffrench, $5,800
Very few offenses have changed the way the Pitt Panthers did between 2018 and 2019. In 2018, the Panthers relied on a run-heavy approach centered around Qadree Ollison. Following his departure for the NFL, and a string of disappointing offensive performances to finish the season, Pitt made a change at offensive coordinator. Mark Whipple, Pitt's new play-caller, came over from UMass following some disappointing seasons as a whole, but largely due to a lack of talent on the roster. Whipple designed one of the nation's most intriguing offenses during his time at UMass, not because of the intricacies of the offense or anything of that nature, but because of its heavy dependence upon one player: Andy Isabella. Isabella was drafted in the second round of the NFL draft after a record-breaking collegiate career playing under Mark Whipple. In 2018, only one player caught more passes than Andy Isabella: Rondale Moore and Moore edged him out by just 1 reception while playing 2 more games than did Isabella. Whipple brought this same style of gunslinging offense focused around one single wide receiver with him to Pitt, and Maurice Ffrench is the primary beneficiary of this change. Through 3 games Ffrench has tallied, 12, 13, and 15 targets in each game, respectively- some of the highest totals in the entire country. Ffrench struggled to convert the targets into substantial production in weeks one and three, but at this volume, it is only a matter of time before the gaudy offensive statistics follow suit. Maurice Ffrench's price does not correctly reflect the fact that there is a significant chance he finishes this slate as the most-targeted player on any team, so for just $5,800, he is a fantastic place to start any lineup.
Chatarius Atwell, $4,400
Chatarius Atwell is another small, speedy weapon in the Louisville Cardinals arsenal. At wide receiver, Atwell is Louisville's number-one receiver, and Scott Satterfield is always trying to find creative and deceptive ways to get him the ball in space. In week one against Notre Dame, Atwell was by far Louisville's most-targeted pass-catcher with 11 targets on the day. Then, in week two, Lousiville took on a wholly overpowered FCS program in Eastern Kentucky, which didn't require they throw the ball very frequently whatsoever. Last week, against Western Kentucky, Louisville was forced into playing its backup, run-first quarterback, Malik Cunningham, due to an injury to Juwon Pass. Cunningham still targeted Atwell more than any other receiver, as Atwell finished with 4 catches for 141 yards and 3 touchdowns on 6 targets. In week four, the Louisville Cardinals face off against the up-tempo Florida State Seminoles. This game has the potential to turn into a shootout in the blink of an eye, as it features an elite play-caller on each coaching staff. Chatarius "Tutu" Atwell will have plenty of chances to make good on his bottom-dollar $4,400 price tag in week four.
Ja'Marr Chase, $5,700
Head coach Ed Orgeron elected to not play Ja'Marr Chase at all in the team's week three victory over Northwestern State. Chase was perfectly healthy heading into the game, and the only explanation for his absence is that he was serving some type of team-mandated suspension for a violation of team rules unbeknownst to the public. Orgeron said in a press conference leading up to the team's week four game against Vanderbilt that Ja'Marr Chase was ready to go in week four and that he would play. Chase is a starting wide receiver in LSU's spread offense, and he thrived in week two against Texas. LSU needed to score points in bunches to top the Texas Longhorns on the road, and through the passing game, they did just that. Ja'Marr Chase was targeted 10 times on the day, hauling in 8 passes for 147 yards on the day. Following his DNP in week three, however, Chase's price on the DraftKings main slate does not fully reflect his role in LSU's pass-heavy offense. For just $5,700, Ja'Marr Chase is available as a premier piece of the LSU passing game in a matchup against Vanderbilt's weak defense. While Chase may not be the number-one option for Joe Burrow through the air, he is undoubtedly the most affordable option for DFS lineups, and he offers the same upside as either of the two Tigers wide receivers priced above him. Ja'Marr Chase is viable in all formats, especially as a part of a stack with his top-end quarterback.
SECONDARY OPTIONS
Darrell Stewart, Jr., $6,300
Darrell Stewart, Jr. has found a way to be a bright spot in an otherwise dark and dreary Michigan State offense this season. Sparty's offense sputtered out of the gates before showing signs of life in week two, only to drop the ball entirely in a 10-7 loss at the hands of the Arizona State Sun Devils in week three. Through these ups and downs, Stewart, Jr. has produced 11.6, 38.18, and 24.1 DraftKings points in each game, respectively. The matchup here in week four against the Northwestern Wildcats is no easier than anything Stewart, Jr. has faced in the first three weeks of the season, but he has proven to command the volume to produce regardless of the matchup. The projected total in the game is just 37.5-points, one of the lowest in recent years, which is typically a red flag to stay away from a game. Stewart, Jr., however, provides a fantastic leverage play in this tough matchup. In week three's aforementioned matchup with Arizona State that totaled just 17 points between the teams, Stewart, Jr. was targeted 15 times and surpassed 100-receiving yards with relative ease. Quarterback Brian Lewerke clearly zeroed-in on Darrell Stewart, Jr as his favorite aerial target to start the season, and there are no signs of this stopping any time soon. Stewart, Jr. is certainly not cheap for this matchup at $6,300, but this makes him an elite contrarian selection in tournaments. The best predictor of future touchdowns is the player's previous target-share within an offense. Stewart, Jr. posts one of the highest target-share numbers in the entire country, which implies that when Michigan State reach the end zone through the air, it will very likely be thanks to Darrell Stewart, Jr.
Jaylond Adams, $5,100
Taking a wide receiver on an overmatched team facing off against one of the nation's best teams is always a risky venture. For that reason, let me start off by saying this: Jaylond Adams is a pure tournament play this weekend. He should not be considered in cash lineups in any capacity, but he will likely end up as an extremely under-owned player in tournaments because of a tough matchup. Jaylond Adams is undoubtedly Southern Miss' best athlete. Adams has already scored three touchdowns this season on just hit punt and kickoff returns. Southern Miss, while overmatched against SEC teams, scheduled two of them for their non-conference schedule in 2019. The Golden Eagles traveled to Mississippi State in week two when they suffered a 38-15 defeat at the hands of the bulldogs. Jaylond Adams found the end zone through the air on that day, as he compiled 4 receptions for 56 yards and the 1 aforementioned touchdown. Adams also ran the ball twice on that day but failed to break loose on either run, totaling just two yards on those plays. The thought process behind Southern Miss using Adams in the ground-game is encouraging, however. The Golden Eagles are attempting to create different ways to get the ball in his hands with space to operate because of his incredible athleticism. In week four, in another SEC matchup, albeit a tougher one, Jaylond Adams has the potential to shine on a national stage against one of the country's best teams. His downside is extremely low, but if he finds a seam and breaks loose for a touchdown, having Adams in a tournament lineup will be a real difference-maker at the end of the day.