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A gruelingly long offseason has finally come to an end. The week-in and week-out grind of the college football season is finally back, and it has never felt better. It truly is remarkable how many question marks can pile up over a seven-month offseason. Is Texas finally back under the tutelage of Tom Herman? Will the PAC 12 miss out on the College Football Playoff for yet another year? Should the Alabama vs. Clemson national championship matchup be written on my calendar in pen or pencil? At this point, it's all conjecture. It's a game of inches played with an oblong ball, a lot of weird things can happen throughout 12 games. However, there are a few certainties this year, as there are every year. There will be upsets. There will be plays that make you scratch your head and ask, "Why did he do that!?" There will be plays that make your jaw hit the floor and ask, "How did he do that!?" And lastly, there will be at least one team that feels that they didn't get a fair chance to prove themselves once Playoff time rolls around. Buckle up. There will be chaos, but in the meantime, let's have some fun and try to profit off of the frenzy that is college football season.
Strategy NOTE
There is one fundamental difference between NFL DFS and College Football DFS, and that is lineup construction. A college football removes the tight end and defense positions from a lineup and replaces them one super flex position. The super flex position can be filled by a quarterback, running back, or wide receiver. On nearly every single slate throughout the year rostering a second quarterback in the super flex position will be optimal in both cash games and tournaments. Keep this in mind all year when building lineups.
SLATE SNAPSHOT
Listed here are the most notable games for DFS purposes. In green are games with the highest projected totals, according to betting markets, and in red are the games with the lowest projected totals on the slate. Try to avoid using too many players in any single lineup from the game(s) in red. On the other hand, the game(s) in green should provide enough points and fantasy points across the board to make multiple pieces on each team viable for fantasy lineups
- Ole Miss @ Memphis | Memphis (-4.5), GAME TOTAL: 66
- South Carolina vs. North Carolina | South Carolina (-11), GAME TOTAL: 62.5 [NEUTRAL SITE GAME]
- Northwestern @ Stanford | Stanford (-6.5), GAME TOTAL: 47.5
Quarterback
Justin Fields, Ohio State, $9,000
Justin Fields transferred to Ohio State following one season as Jake Fromm's backup for Georgia. Fields, the number one recruit in the class of 2018 (according to ESPN,) is one of the most athletic quarterbacks in the entire nation. Fields officially ran a 4.51-second 40-yard dash at The Opening's Orlando regional, one of the nation's most prestigious high school football camps. In his collegiate debut as a starting quarterback, Justin Fields enters as a 27.5-point favorite over Florida Atlantic University. Last season in the Buckeyes' opening game against Oregon State the team's starter, Dwayne Haskins, completed 22 out of 30 passes for 313 yards and 5 touchdowns. Ryan Day proved last season that he is willing to let the starter go deep into a blowout early in the season. The combination of rushing and passing ability that Fields offers for DFS lineups is too impressive for just a $9,000 price tag.
Terry Wilson, Kentucky, $6,500
Terry Wilson is entering his second season at the helm for the Kentucky Wildcats, after leading them to their highest final poll ranking since 1977 last season. It will undoubtedly be challenging to top the results of yesteryear, but Big Blue Nation opens up the season with one of its easiest matchups of the year against Toledo. Toledo's defense struggled mightily in 2018, as they allowed opponents to score 34+ points in 7 of 13 games throughout the year. 2019's outlook is not much brighter for the Rockets, as they lose significant production at all three levels of their defense. Kentucky enters week one as a 12-point favorite over Toledo, with an implied team total of 37 points. There should be no shortage of production to go around for the Wildcats, and Wilson, as a dual-threat quarterback, is primed to outperform his $6,500 price on DraftKings.
running back
A.J Rose, Kentucky, $6,100
A.J Rose certainly has some big shoes to fill in the Kentucky Wildcats' backfield. Benny Snell, Jr., Kentucky's all-time leading rusher, left for the NFL after a dominant junior year. Rose, the team's new starter, went for over six yards-per-carry last season, albeit in limited work. Rose's efficiency levels will likely decline marginally in a larger sample size, but the week one matchup with Toledo is far from intimidating. In 2018, Toledo finished with the 102nd-ranked defense in the nation according to S&P+. It only gets worse from there for Rockets fans, as the team is losing significant contributors throughout the defense. Toledo enters 2019 without two key players from last season in each of its defensive line, linebacker, and defensive back units. It would be tough for Wildcat fans to imagine a better opening-week matchup to ease Rose into his role as Kentucky's number one running back. For $6,100, Rose will not break the bank this week, and he forecasts for a stable workload with high efficiency. Roster Asim Rose with confidence in all formats, as he projects to be one of the best overall point-per-dollar plays above $5,000 on the slate.
Kenneth Gainwell, Memphis, $3,400
Kenneth Gainwell is poised to fill the void left in Memphis' offense following Tony Pollard's departure for the NFL. Pollard was officially listed as the team's "tailback" last season, which is a blend between a running back and a slot receiver in Memphis' offense. Pollard finished last year second on the Tigers in receiving and third on the team in rushing after accruing over 1,000 yards from scrimmage. Memphis also lost 34 touchdowns of production over the offseason between the departures of Darrell Henderson and Tony Pollard. Gainwell is stepping into a role that produced over 12 DraftKings points per game last season, and at least 10 DraftKings points in 10 out of 14 games. Gainwell offers a rare combination of salary relief and a high level of expected involvement in this offense. At just $3,400, Kenneth Gainwell will likely be one of the sharpest plays on the slate across the board as a viable option in all contest formats.
Ricky Person, Jr., NC State, $5,700
Ricky Person, Jr. enters his sophomore season fully healthy for, perhaps, the first time in his collegiate career. In 2018, Person challenged the incumbent starter, Reggie Gallaspy, Jr., for snaps regularly when he was at full health. Unfortunately for the Wolfpack, those days were few and far between. Person, a former top-recruit for NC State, enters the 2019 season feeling better than he ever has before, and that should mean trouble for East Carolina. ECU finished the 2018 season ranked 101st in the nation in defensive S&P+, and 2019 does not project to be much better. ECU's defense loses 4 of its top 6 defenders in tackles for loss. Expect Ricky Person, Jr. to take full advantage of a weakened East Carolina defense in a game NC State is expected to win by about 17 points. Ricky Person, Jr., priced at $5,700 on DraftKings, should see between 15 and 20 touches in the season opener. The combination of expected floor and ceiling make Person, Jr. a quality candidate at the running back position in all formats.
wide receiver
Lynn Bowden, Kentucky, $6,500
Add wide receiver Lynn Bowden to the list of Kentucky players poised to start the 2019 season on the right foot. Bowden finished the 2018 season as Kentucky's most-targeted players, while the second through seventh-most targeted players are no longer on the roster. Last season Bowden registered more than twice as many targets as any other player on the Wildcats. Additionally, Kentucky coaches have made one thing clear: Lynn Bowden will see an even more significant role in the offense this season. Bowden makes for an ideal stacking option with quarterback Terry Wilson in all formats, as their statistical production will be highly correlated. Expect Bowden's price (in non-SEC games) to rise above $7,000 sooner rather than later, making $6,500 a difficult discount to pass on.
Be cautious in cash games this week with the trio of Kentucky players listed in this article. Rostering all three players in one cash lineup is an undeniably risky strategy, and it should be avoided by risk-averse players. Risk-tolerant players may consider this strategy, but a team featuring all three Wildcats will inherently lack the diversification of a typical cash-game lineup.
K.J. Hill, Ohio State, $6,700
Two of Ohio State's top wide receivers, Parris Campbell and Terry McLaurin, left for the NFL along with their star quarterback Dwayne Haskins. Following these departures, there are some massive shoes to be filled in the Buckeyes' offense. Look to K.J. Hill to fill the void left at wide receiver in 2019. Hill finished 2018 as the team's second-most targeted wide receiver with a total of 93 targets, and at least 7 targets in 9 of 13 games. K.J. Hill is another viable candidate for a quarterback-wide receiver stack with his new signal-caller, Justin Fields. The betting markets project Ohio State to score over 45 points in the opener, meaning there should be plenty of opportunity for Hill to stuff the stat sheet. Hill is ready to step in as the number-one receiver in Ohio State's high-octane offense in 2019, and a week one matchup against Florida Atlantic gives him an incredible chance to kick off the season with a bang.
Dazz Newsome, North Carolina, $5,700
Tar Heel fans have been salivating over the prospects of Dazz Newsome in the team's new air raid offense. New head coach Mack Brown set out to revamp the offense this offseason, and step one of this process was hiring Phil Longo away from Ole Miss. Longo's lengthy track record of orchestrating high-scoring offenses caught Brown's eye, and for good reason. After coaching Ole Miss to the seventh-ranked offense in the nation in S&P+, Longo had proven he has what it takes to call a successful offense at almost any level. One of the primary beneficiaries of the new offensive system in Chapel Hill is slot receiver Dazz Newsome. Standing just 5'11" tall, Newsome is not going to dominate many defensive backs physically. However, North Carolina's new up-tempo air raid offense will highlight his exceptional quickness and athleticism.
Newsome finished 2018 as the team's second-most targeted wide receiver and following the departure of Anthony Ratliff-Williams, he is expected to be the leader of this unit in 2019. Look for Dazz Newsome to establish himself as freshman quarterback Sam Howell's safety blanket right out of the gate this season. Newsome should be one of the highest-volume receivers on the slate, and at just $5,700 it's going to take a far worse matchup than South Carolina to take him out of consideration.
game stack
OLE MISS @ MEMPHIS | MEMPHIS (-4.5), GAME TOTAL: 66
The Ole Miss Rebels finished 2018 with the 6th-ranked offense and 90th-ranked defense in the nation, according to S&P+. Similarly, the Memphis Tigers ended the year with the 14th-ranked offense and 86th-ranked defense, according to S&P+. The market seems to expect more of the same from these two teams, as they are projected to combine for over 65 points in the season opener, good for the most on the slate. On Memphis' side of the ball, there are some massive absences from the 2018 roster. College football's second-leading touchdown scorer, Darrell Henderson, has left for the NFL, as well as all-purpose back Tony Pollard. In 2019, as mentioned above, Kenneth Gainwell is expected to fill the Tony Pollard-role in Memphis' offense, and at just $3,400 he is exceptionally difficult to fade. Elsewhere, the team is returning its starting quarterback, Brady White, for his second year as the starting quarterback. At $7,000 on DraftKings, White is an option for both cash-games and tournaments. The upside of the Memphis passing game is as high as any team on the slate, and the only thing standing between Brady White and a monster performance is the team's running back, Patrick Taylor, Jr.. Even with Darrell Henderson in the mix, Taylor, Jr. still managed to run for over 1,100 yards and 16 touchdowns. Taylor, Jr. is very expensive on this slate at $8,500, which makes him difficult to manage in a cash-game lineup. Taylor, Jr., however, makes for an outstanding option for tournaments, as fitting him requires a contrarian approach elsewhere in the lineup-building process. At wide receiver, Damonte Coxie is the clear-cut number-one option for Memphis. In 2018, Coxie tallied 117 targets, and there is no reason to expect this total to decline in 2019. Stacking Coxie and White together in any format is a strong strategy, as the duo projects to be one of the highest-scoring quarterback-wide receiver combinations on the slate.
Switching over to Ole Miss' offense, there is far more uncertainty within the team's turnover. At quarterback, freshman Matt Corral will lead the Rebels' offense onto the field in 2019. The team has a new offensive coordinator in Rich Rodriguez following the aforementioned departure of Phil Longo (see: Dazz Newsome analysis.) While Longo is not an insignificant loss, it is tough to find a better replacement than Rich Rodriguez. Rodriguez coached Khalil Tate during his electric 2017 campaign where Tate ran for 1,411 yards and 12 touchdowns. Comparing Corral's athleticism to that of Tate's is a stretch, to say the least, but Corral is a very capable dual-threat quarterback. Corral's $7,200 price tag makes him a marginally-riskier option than White in this game, as Corral is the projected underdog playing on the road against the (expected) better defense. In the backfield, the Rebels return last year's leading rusher, Scottie Phillips. In Phillips' first year in the SEC, he managed over 80 yards per game. In week one, against far weaker competition, Phillips will likely close in on the century mark on the ground. The only thing keeping Phillips from being the top option on the slate at running back is his $6,700 price tag. Phillips' popularity level will likely be capped on this slate by the viable options priced just below him. In tournaments, this makes Phillips an elite choice at running back with a percent-rostered number significantly below where it likely should be. Wide receiver features the biggest question marks for the Ole Miss Rebels. Ole Miss has to replace four pass-catchers currently on (or trying out for) NFL rosters in 2019. This season, the Rebels will likely turn to Elijah Moore and Braylon Sanders to fill the void in the offense. Elijah Moore stands just 5'9", but he's a very refined route-runner that will command targets in bunches throughout the season. In DraftKings' full-PPR scoring format, look for Moore to be one of the most consistent producers throughout the season. Braylon Sanders is not a physically-imposing wide receiver, but his explosiveness is unmatched on this roster. Sanders' 2018 mark of 16.9 yards per reception perfectly encapsulates his ability to take the top off of a defense and change the game in an instance. He has yet to prove he can produce consistently on short or intermediate routes, which makes him a riskier option at wide receiver, but as a part of a stack Sanders will help maximize the upside of any lineup.