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Late in the college football season, the Playoff picture seems to be shaping up with the week-to-week consistency of the ranking committee. Arguments can be made for or against many of the teams that sit on the fringe today. When all is said and done, undoubtedly, teams will feel like they got the short end of the stick. Given the importance of every game down the stretch here, I think it is worth analyzing how the cookie seems to be crumbling.
Breakdown of the College Football Playoff picture as it stands entering Week 13:
LSU seems to have a spot in the playoff locked down barring two large upset losses down the home stretch. Additionally, Clemson, also barring a massive upset loss, has a spot locked up. Then, in the Big Ten, Ohio State is the odds-on favorite to win the conference, but a marquee matchup with Penn State this weekend could throw a wrench into their chances. The winner of this matchup will effectively lock up a berth in the Big Ten Championship game, where the winner of the conference will almost certainly go to the playoff. This leaves just one final spot in the playoff up for grabs between the PAC 12, the Big 12, and then another potential SEC team. The committee seems to think quite highly of the PAC 12 this season (perhaps too highly?) as Oregon and Utah are both vying for a spot in the top-four, and if both teams run the table through the rest of the regular season, the winner of the PAC 12 Championship Game is likely in the driver's seat for the final spot in the playoff. They will, however, have to compete with a potential one-loss Oklahoma team that rates much higher than either PAC 12 front-runner by most advanced metrics. Oklahoma's one loss is likely worse than either Oregon (early loss to Auburn) or Utah (loss to USC, who has now snuck into the rankings at number-23,) which seems to be in the forefront of the committee's mind when setting the rankings each week. Barring an extremely impressive close to the season, the Sooners are likely behind the eight-ball here and not in control of their own destiny. Lastly, the SEC may throw the committee for a loop down the stretch. If a one-loss Georgia team makes the SEC Championship, presumably against the undefeated LSU Tigers, and wins, they're surely in the playoff, right? Things get extremely messy here, as I already said a one-loss LSU team should be a lock for the playoff this season. Now, in this hypothetical scenario, with two SEC teams certainly deserving a berth, a committee that seems to think very highly of the PAC 12, and an Oklahoma team that many believe should be ranked much higher than they currently are, there is no telling what the committee will ultimately decide to do.
Fear not, however, because after laboring over this issue for countless hours and toying with countless models I believe I have solved this highly-complicated problem of leaving out multiple very deserving teams from the College Football Playoff. It's tough to follow along, though, as it involves many moving parts and contingencies: (spoiler alert: it's actually very simple and, in my humble opinion, logical) an eight-team playoff. The committee could avoid all of these potential issues with an eight-team playoff featuring: the conference champions of all power-five conferences, the highest-ranked group-of-five team (if one is ranked within the top-25), and two at-large bids. At this point, it's all just a pipe dream because, under the guise of caring too much about the players to subject them to the additional risk of a 16th game, the NCAA seems reluctant to tack one more game onto the schedule for the teams that ultimately end up in the National Championship Game.
Best of luck to everyone, and as always, if you have any questions, comments, or concerns about this article, feel free to reach out to me on twitter @ThaGreatZambino!
STRATEGY NOTE
There is one fundamental difference between NFL DFS and College Football DFS, and that is lineup construction. A college football lineup removes the tight end and defense positions and replaces them with one super flex position. The super flex position can be filled by a quarterback, running back, or wide receiver. On nearly every single slate throughout the year rostering a second quarterback in the super flex position will be optimal in both cash games and tournaments. Keep this in mind all year when building lineups.
SLATE SNAPSHOT
Listed here are the most notable games for DFS purposes. In green are games with the highest projected totals, according to betting markets, and in red are the games with the lowest projected totals on the slate. Try to avoid using too many players in any single lineup from the game(s) in red. On the other hand, the game(s) in green should provide enough points and fantasy points across the board to make multiple pieces on each team viable for fantasy lineups.
- UCLA @ USC | USC -14, Total: 63
- Syracuse @ Louisville | Louisville -10, Total: 63
- SMU @ Navy | Navy -3.5, Total: 68
- UCF @ Tulane | UCF -6, Total: 69.5
- Texas A&M @ Georgia | Georgia -13, Total: 45.5
- Michigan @ Indiana | Michigan -8.5, Total: 52.5
Quarterback
Dru Brown, Oklahoma State, $4,900
Once again, here in Week 13, an unfortunate injury has lined up a bargain-bin quarterback for a start in an elite matchup. Last weekend, K.J. Costello was unable to go for the Stanford Cardinal, which moved Davis Mills into a starting spot against Washington State's porous secondary, and Mills posted a 500-yard, 3-touchdown performance. This weekend, a season-ending surgery for Oklahoma State's starting quarterback, Spencer Sanders, moves Dru Brown into the lineup under-center. Brown competed with Sanders for the starting role all preseason, but Mike Gundy and the Oklahoma State coaching staff elected to go with the true freshman as the starter in what was an extremely close battle between the two. Some highly-respected college football analysts have contested that Brown might have been the better of the two quarterbacks the entire time, but that the Cowboys defaulted to the younger option with one eye on the future. Now, against a weak West Virginia secondary, Dru Brown will get his opportunity to lead the Oklahoma State Cowboys into action at a measly price of just $4,900. West Virginia's pass defense is one of the weakest units in the country, understandably so, considering their tough schedule along with the general lack of talent that Dana Holgorsen left when he bolted for the head coaching gig at Houston. Over their last 4 games, the Mountaineers have allowed an average of over 323 passing yards per game. Just last week, they allowed Skylar Thompson, a notably weak passing quarterback, to rack up a season-high 299 yards through the air. This weekend, Dru Brown should have no trouble moving the ball down the field for the Oklahoma State Cowboys. Even in the run-heavy offense that Oklahoma State runs, Dru Brown does not need to contribute much through the air to pay off his $4,900 price tag on DraftKings. Confidently plug Brown into lineups in all formats, as he will likely be the most popular quarterback option amongst sharp players this weekend, especially in cash-games.
Kedon Slovis, USC, $7,000
Kedon Slovis assumed the starting role for the USC Trojans in Week 2 under unfortunate circumstances when the team's incumbent starter, J.T. Daniels, suffered a knee injury against the Fresno State Bulldogs. After an impressive preseason performance that bumped Jack Sears, a former top-recruit and a player many thought was competing for the Trojans' starting job, down to the third-string quarterback position (and ultimately into the transfer portal,) Slovis has shined under the bright lights in Los Angeles. His command of Graham Harrell's newly-installed up-tempo air raid offense has been critical to USC's unexpectedly-strong campaign that has them 23rd in this week's iteration of the College Football Playoff Rankings. This weekend, Slovis will lead the Trojans into battle in the Crosstown Rivalry against the UCLA Bruins. UCLA's pass defense ranks amongst the nation's worst, allowing over 298 passing yards per game, the 8th-most in the country, and over 2.7 passing touchdowns per game, the 4th-most in the country. On the season, the true freshman has 4 300-yard games and 5 3-touchdown performances to his name, and he seems to have really found a groove lately. Slovis has posted 4 straight 3-touchdown games to go along with at least 400 passing yards in 3 out of his last 4 games. This impressive passing production has translated into at least 33 DraftKings points in 3 out his last 4 games, with the lone game under that threshold coming against Oregon's stout defense. Expect Slovis to shred the UCLA Bruins' horrific secondary through the air this weekend in what projects to be another 300-yard and multi-touchdown performance. At $7,000, Kedon Slovis is a strong option in all formats this weekend. If rostering him in a tournament, be sure to pair him up with at least one of his top receivers (Amon-Ra St. Brown, Michael Pittman, Jr., Tyler Vaughns, or Drake London.)
Micale Cunningham, Louisville, $6,100
Micale Cunningham took over the starting job as Louisville's quarterback late in 2018 during what was a lost season under Bobby Petrino, who already had two feet out the door by the time November rolled around. Cunningham is a top-end rushing quarterback, although he has not shown it as much in recent weeks. He finished the 2018 season as Louisville's leading rusher with 497 yards on the ground. While he has not run the ball as much this season, his passing abilities have improved dramatically under the tutelage of Scott Satterfield. Cunningham has thrown for 6 touchdowns across his last 2 outings while posting at least 20.96 DraftKings points in 3 straight games. This weekend, Cunningham leads the Louisville Cardinals into action against a struggling Syracuse Orange program that has fallen far short of expectations in 2019. The Orange's defense has been erratic this season, with some high highs and some shockingly low lows, like the 63 point outburst they allowed in Week 2 to Maryland along with the 58 points Boston College put up against them just 2 weeks ago. As previously mentioned, Cunningham's passing has improved, and while it is nothing worth writing home about, he should have no problem keeping it up against Syracuse this weekend. However, Syracuse's defense is one of the weakest in the nation against the run. Allowing nearly 200 yards and over 2 touchdowns on nearly 5 yards per carry, the Orange's run defense is arguably the worst in the ACC. This week's game profiles as an elite bounce-back spot for Cunningham's rushing production, which has slacked lately partially due to a propensity to hold onto the ball and take sacks, which inexplicably count against a quarterback's rushing numbers in college football. Syracuse's weakness in the trenches should both struggle to pressure Cunningham in the pocket and contain him when he decides to tuck the ball and run this weekend when the Louisville Cardinals look to tally their fourth home victory of the season. At just $6,100, Cunningham does not need to do very much to reach value this weekend, and he is a strong option in both cash games and tournaments. In tournaments, avoid rostering Cunningham alongside his starting running back, Javian Hawkins, who is listed below as one of the strongest running back plays on the slate, as they both limit each other's ceiling of production on the ground.
Secondary/Tournament Option
Justin McMillan, Tulane, $6,300
Justin McMillan and the Tulane Green Wave play host to the Central Florida Golden Knights this weekend in a game with a projected spread of under one touchdown and a total of nearly 70 points. McMillan and Tulane alike have been pleasant surprises this season, as the Green Wave are already bowl-eligible entering their final couple games of the year. McMillan, a former member of the LSU Tigers that transferred before last season and he has been the primary reason for Tulane's offensive success this year, as they average nearly 35 points per game through their first 10 games of the year. McMillan is a very mobile quarterback that has tallied 12 rushing touchdowns already this season. Having been held out of the end zone on the ground just twice this year, McMillan averages nearly 13 points per game on the ground in 2019. With more than 34 DraftKings points in 2 out of his last 3 outings, Justin McMillan is the prototypical tournament option at the bottom of the player pool this week at quarterback. Typically, in value quarterbacks there are two primary reasons for a player to have a ceiling capable of winning a tournament: a perfect matchup (such as Davis Mills against the Washington State Cougars last week) or significant rushing production. Given the value of rushing statistics, with rushing touchdowns being worth one-third as many points as passing touchdowns and rushing yards and yardage bonuses being more valuable or attainable, mobile quarterbacks are fit the bill for salary-saving tournament options. This weekend, the number-one option in this area is Justin McMillan, as he leads a Tulane attack projected to score over 30 points in a potential shootout. If this game goes the way the betting markets expect, McMillan will almost certainly be the source of the Green Wave's offensive outburst against UCF. Consider McMillan primarily in tournaments, as the matchup is less-than-ideal; however, the upside is significant.
Running Back
Breece Hall, Iowa State, $6,700
Since taking over as Iowa State's starting, bell-cow running back, Breece Hall has posted at least 100 rushing yards or multiple touchdowns in all 5 games. Hall, a true freshman, is already one of the most proficient ball-carriers in the country, posting approximately 5.6 yards per carry on the year. Iowa State's offense makes an obvious effort to get the ball into his hands, giving Hall at least 22 touches in every start this year. This weekend's matchup with the Kansas Jayhawks is as strong of a matchup as Breece Hall will see all season. The Kansas Jayhawks' run defense is one of the worst in the nation, allowing over 232 rushing yards and 2.3 touchdowns on over 5.0 yards per carry this year. Iowa State is projected to win this game by nearly 4 touchdowns, and they have a projected team total of over 40 points, meaning there should be plenty of offensive production to go around in their offense. At $6,700, Breece Hall is underpriced by about $1,000 (in my estimation) in this matchup, and he is a core play for lineups in all formats this weekend. Expect a strong performance, with a strong likelihood of exceeding 30 DraftKings points, from Hall and the Iowa State Cyclones this weekend when they play host to the Kansas Jayhawks.
Chuba Hubbard, Oklahoma State, $8,900
Chuba Hubbard's 2019 campaign has flown under the radar as one of the most impressive seasons by any running back in recent memory. Hubbard currently ranks 2nd in the nation in rushing attempts, 1st in the nation in rushing yards, and 2nd in the nation in rushing touchdowns. Through 10 games this season, Hubbard averages 25.9 carries, 172.6 yards, and 2.0 touchdowns per game this year. The Oklahoma State Cowboys' offense runs through Chuba Hubbard this season, as their passing attack, especially since All-Big 12 wide receiver Tylan Wallace went down with an ACL injury, has been a low-volume unit. Hubbard has posted at least 100 yards and a touchdown in every game against FBS competition, with multiple touchdowns in 7 out of 9 of those games. The Oklahoma State rushing attack is one of the most creative in the country, and it has proven to be matchup-proof this season. Here in Week 13 of the college football season, they face off with the West Virginia Mountaineers' defense, whose defensive metrics against the run are respectable, allowing 3.9 yards per carry on the year; however, their schedule has been quite easy in this regard. Arguably the three most-talented rushing attacks they have faced (Roschon Johnson/Keaontay Ingram for Texas, Larry Rountree II for Missouri, and Breece Hall for Iowa State) have all posted a 100-yard rusher on the day. There is little doubt that Hubbard will post another 100-yard rushing day this weekend, and his volume may actually increase from the remarkable levels he has seen this year. Without their starting quarterback, the Oklahoma State Cowboys might be even more reliant upon the rushing attack this weekend than they normally are. Even at $8,900, Chuba Hubbard is one of the best running back options on the slate this weekend, and he is viable in all formats.
Javian Hawkins, Louisville, $5,500
Javian Hawkins, aside from two sub-par performances, has been one of the nation's most consistent running backs. Hawkins has scored at least 12.0 DraftKings points in 8 out of 10 games this season, which at first glance seems like a low threshold to clear. However, at just $5,500 this weekend, a 12-point performance would be an unexciting but acceptable performance. Additionally, Hawkins will likely surpass this total with ease in an exceptional matchup against the Syracuse Orange. As mentioned in the analysis of Micale Cunningham above, Syracuse's run defense is one of the weakest of any team in a power-five conference. On the year, the Orange have allowed 6 different running backs to post at least 100 yards and a rushing touchdown. Hawkins is the most likely candidate to reach these totals for Louisville this weekend, considering he has tallied at least 15 carries in every game except 1 this season, including 4 20-carry games. Javian Hawkins has a strong floor of production, thanks to his consistently high volume of carries. Hawkins' ceiling in this elite matchup against a horrendous Syracuse Orange defense that just allowed 2 different 170-yard and 2 touchdown rushers 2 weeks ago against Boston College. At just $5,500, he makes for an elite salary-saving option at the running back position this weekend in all formats. However, as mentioned at the end of Micale Cunningham's analysis above, avoid rostering these two together, as they each limit the other's ceiling of rushing production.
Secondary/Tournament Option
Greg McCrae, UCF, $5,200
Greg McCrae is poised to make his return to the backfield this weekend for the UCF Golden Knights after missing the last three with a knee injury. McCrae's price has dropped significantly since he last took the field. Early in the season, McCrae hovered around $7,000, dropping down to about $6,000 after Otis Anderson and Adrian Killins emerged as consistent producers in UCF's backfield, which was a reasonable price. Now, after watching from the sidelines for about a month, McCrae's price has dropped down towards $5,000. UCF's junior running back has proven over the last two seasons to have a nose for the end zone, with 10 rushing touchdowns and then another 6 this season in just 7 games. Last season, McCrae was uber efficient carrying the football, going for more than 8.8 yards per carry, and he's kept it up this season, although not to that extent, with 5.6 yards per carry in 2019. Over the course of the past two years, Greg McCrae has proven one thing for sure: he does not need a high number of touches to produce massive fantasy performances. This weekend, look to buy-low on Greg McCrae at this unreasonably suppressed price in tournaments. He is not a strong cash-game option, as he typically hovers between 9 and 13 carries when healthy, which does not provide a strong floor of production.
Wide Receiver
Brennan Eagles, Texas, $5,200
Brennan Eagles, a highly-touted true sophomore wide receiver for the Texas Longhorns, has shined when Sam Ehlinger has turned his way, especially when Collin Johnson has been sidelined. Johnson, one of the most impressive receivers in the country, has re-aggravated a hamstring injury that kept him out for about a month earlier this season. Johnson missed last week's game and has not practiced much at all this week, but he is officially listed as a game-time decision. In sum, he is likely closer to doubtful than questionable this weekend, which should lead to another high-volume day for Brennan Eagles through the air. Over the last two games that Johnson missed, Eagles tallied 7 and 9 targets, respectively, and now at just $5,200 he is poised for another day of near-double-digit targets. At 6'4", Eagles is a physical specimen in and around the end zone, with 6 touchdowns on the season. In games that Texas has trailed this season, Sam Ehlinger has been forced to throw the ball at uncomfortably-high rates, averaging over 43 pass attempts per game, including 4 of his 5 highest-volume passing days. As six-point underdogs on the road against Baylor, Ehlinger will have to get the job done with his arm rather than his legs if Texas wants to pull off an upset this weekend. Expect Brennan Eagles to have plenty of opportunities this weekend if Collin Johnson is inactive, as expected, and for only $5,200, he makes for a strong selection in both cash-games and tournaments.
Denzel Mims, Baylor, $6,700
On the other side of the Texas @ Baylor matchup, Denzel Mims leads the way for the Baylor Bears through the air. Mims has led all Baylor wide receivers in targets in every game except two this season. This weekend, Baylor's offense faces off against Texas' notably poor secondary. Texas has underwhelmed this season, already ensuring they will fall short of their preseason projection of 9 wins (according to the betting market.) Texas has allowed multiple scores through the air in 6 straight games, and 8 out of 10 on the season. Opposing offenses have had very little trouble moving the ball down the field through the air against Texas, as the Longhorns' defense has given up at least 300 yards or a season-high passing total on 7 different occasions this season. After a short two-game dip in the middle of the season where Mims was held under 10 DraftKings points in back-to-back games, he has gotten back on track with 3 straight games of at least 19.9 DraftKings points. At one point earlier in the season, Mims was priced amongst the nation's most expensive receivers on DraftKings, costing $7,800 in Week 5, but now after the aforementioned two-game skid, his price has dropped significantly. The pricing algorithm has not properly adjusted for Mims' strong bounce-back performances, as he now sits at his lowest price of the season at $6,600. Buy-low on Denzel Mims this week in all formats in a fantastic matchup against a porous Texas Longhorns secondary.
UPDATE: Exercise caution with Denzel Mims, as there have been reports on various Baylor Bears message boards that he has been dealing with a bone spur in his foot for a while now. It apparently has not impacted his production very much, as noted above, but he has limped off the field on several occasions in recent weeks. Should this injury flare up either before kickoff, which we can monitor on Twitter and I will be sure to post any updates I see, or during the game he may not see a full workload this weekend. If this potential injury risk is too much to stomach in cash-games, consider another Baylor wide receiver such as Tyquan Thornton or R.J. Sneed in his place. This is an elite matchup for Baylor's passing attack, and getting at least one piece of their offense into cash lineups appears to be a sharp strategy, although it certainly is not mandatory.
James Proche, SMU, $7,700
Atop the player pool at wide receiver, James Proche costs a whopping $7,700. It will be tough to fit him into a lineup alongside the top-end running backs that this slate features, but he is worth trying to make it work. James Proche leads the entire country in targets this season, and quarterback Shane Buechele has looked his way no less than 14 times in any of the SMU Mustangs' last 5 games. Without their number-two wide receiver, Reggie Roberson, who is out with an injury, Proche has done the unthinkable: assumed an even larger role in SMU's passing attack. Roberson went down early in Week 9, and since that time, Proche has registered 16, 18, and 19 targets across the 3 games, respectively. The SMU Mustangs enter this weekend's matchup against the Navy Midshipmen as 3.5-point underdogs in a game projected to total over 67 points between the two teams. The Mustangs will need to light up the scoreboard to keep pace in this matchup, which makes James Proche one of, if not the, most likely touchdown scorer(s) on the slate. Playing from behind, if SMU needs to air the ball out in a comeback attempt, Proche will likely approach 20 targets once again this weekend, a total that is almost unfathomable for any other receiver on the slate. At $7,700, it will be tough to jam him into lineups alongside players like Chuba Hubbard, but it is worth considering in all formats this weekend.
Chatarius "Tutu" Atwell, Louisville, $5,900
As previously mentioned in the analysis of Micale Cunningham and Javian Hawkins, the Louisville Cardinals, amidst their surprisingly-strong bounce-back season, are poised to steamroll the Syracuse Orange on the offensive side of the ball this weekend. The Louisville Cardinals field one of the most well-coached offensive units in the nation, as their up-and-coming head coach, Scott Satterfield, is an offensive specialist. At wide receiver, Tutu Atwell has topped the charts as Louisville's most-targeted wide receiver in 7 out of 10 games this season, averaging over 8 targets per game. Atwell is also an elite big-play threat, with a touchdown of at least 74 yards in 3 consecutive games. Over those 3 games, Atwell has scored at least 25.0 DraftKings points every week, and with Micale Cunningham's improving passing ability, Atwell's potential production improves as well. In the mid-range between Brennan Eagles in the low $5,000 range and Denzel Mims up above $6,500, Tutu Atwell is the number-one receiving target on DraftKings in all formats. In tournaments, consider rostering 2 out of the 3 of Cunningham, Hawkins, and Atwell, but this is not an advantageous spot to roster all 3 together for a full-Louisville stack.
Secondary/Tournament Option
Myron Gailliard, SMU, $3,400
Myron Gailliard is perhaps the most under-the-radar player listed in any iteration of this article this season. Gailliard, a senior wide receiver that ranked fourth on the team in receptions last season and third amongst returning players, is likely to return from a two-week absence due to injury this weekend against Navy. Gailliard entered the season as SMU's number-three wide receiver behind James Proche and Reggie Roberson, but Gailliard went down with an injury in Week 9, the same week that Roberson went down. Since their injuries, players like Rashee Rice and Kylen Granson have stepped up their production. Granson, SMU's tight end, has five touchdowns across his last two games and Rashee Rice popped with a 7-catch, 122-yard performance against Memphis 2 games ago. With their recent performances, many expect the void left by Roberson, who was a highly-productive receiver for the Mustangs, to continue to be filled by a combination of Rice and Granson. However, with Gailliard, the team's original number-three wide receiver, returning this weekend, he could be slated to jump back into action as the number-two receiver in this high-volume passing attack. Best of all, Myron Gailliard costs only $3,400 this weekend, providing massive savings to allow for the top-end options elsewhere in lineups. He is an acceptable, but risky, cash-game option, as his role in the offense is not definite, but he is an elite tournament play in Week 13. He does not need to have a large role in the offense to surpass his salary-implied-expectations, and if he does assume one of the high-volume receiving roles in SMU's passing attack, he has the ability to post upwards of 20 points. Gailliard can be rostered alongside James Proche this weekend, as Proche's incredible volume is virtually incapable of being poached by any other receivers at this point and Myron Gailliard does not need to do very much to make good on his near-minimum-price this weekend. It would not come as a surprise to see Gailliard come in at low-single-digit ownership this weekend in tournaments, which also helps to make him one of the top under-the-radar options in recent memory.
10:18 AM UPDATE
Kelley Joiner, Jr. is listed as a WR on this slate, but he is poised to start at running back for USF this afternoon. At $3,500, Joiner, is going to be one of the most popular players on the entire slate. Last time out, Joiner, Jr. tallied double-digit carries in his best fantasy performance to date. His workload is secure in this role for South Florida, which makes him an exceptional cash-game and tournament play this weekend.
