Here in week nine of the college football season, conference play is in full-swing, providing weekly matchups between bitter rivals and, often times, top-ranked opponents. This weekend's slate of games is headlined by a noon game between the undefeated Ohio State Buckeyes and the Wisconsin Badgers looking to bounceback and spoil Ohio State's season after they lost to Illinois last weekend on a last-second field goal. Then, at 3:30, Auburn heads down to the Bayou to take on the LSU Tigers. Auburn's defense has been one of the most impressive units in the entire country, but Joe Burrow and the LSU passing attack have shown no signs of slowing down for anyone. Then, after the DraftKings main slate of games wraps up, Michigan plays host to the Notre Dame Fighting Irish in a battle of top-25 teams whose potential dreams of making the College Football Playoff were dashed, or at least lessened, thanks to early-season losses. I sound like a broken record here, but will this finally be the week that Michigan head coach Jim Harbaugh finally wins a big game for his alma mater? The betting markets view it as a near-toss-up giving the edge to Notre Dame ever so slightly. In all, week nine is shaping up to be a long day of quality football from start to finish, and why not try to start it off by winning a little money on some college football DFS? This article, coupled with Devin Knotts' projections will go a long way towards helping build a strong player pool for both cash games and tournaments for DraftKings contests.
Best of luck to everyone, and as always, if you have any questions, comments, or concerns about this article, feel free to reach out to me on twitter @ThaGreatZambino!
STRATEGY NOTE
There is one fundamental difference between NFL DFS and College Football DFS, and that is lineup construction. A college football removes the tight end and defense positions from a lineup and replaces them one super flex position. The super flex position can be filled by a quarterback, running back, or wide receiver. On nearly every single slate throughout the year rostering a second quarterback in the super flex position will be optimal in both cash games and tournaments. Keep this in mind all year when building lineups.
SLATE SNAPSHOT
Listed here are the most notable games for DFS purposes. In green are games with the highest projected totals, according to betting markets, and in red are the games with the lowest projected totals on the slate. Try to avoid using too many players in any single lineup from the game(s) in red. On the other hand, the game(s) in green should provide enough points and fantasy points across the board to make multiple pieces on each team viable for fantasy lineups.
- Oklahoma State @ Iowa State | Iowa State -10.5, Total: 64.5
- Syracuse @ Florida State | Florida State -10.5, Total: 60
- Penn State @ Michigan State | Penn State -5.5, Total: 43
QUARTERBACK
Jalen Hurts, Oklahoma, $9,200
As the great Yogi Berra once said, "It's like deja vu all over again." It is now week nine of the college football season, and the DraftKings pricing algorithm has still yet to increase Jalen Hurts' price to the point where he does not jump off the page as an elite option in all formats. This week, Hurts saw a price increase of just $200 following a 47.14-point performance against the West Virginia Mountaineers. Hurts has scored at least 36.82 DraftKings points in all 6 games against FBS competition this season, including 41.5+ points in 5 out of 6 games. Kansas State, a team typically known for its physical style of football, has struggled in its first season since the retirement of head coach Bill Snyder. So far this year, Kansas State has allowed an average of 195 rushing yards per game on approximately 5.8 yards per carry. Hurts, as one of the nation's best running quarterbacks, is primed to take advantage of this glaring weakness in the Wildcats' defense. Over the course of his 7 games in an Oklahoma Sooners' jersey, Jalen Hurts has averaged over 100 yards and 1 rushing touchdown per game. This rushing production provides an unmatched floor for the quarterback position, making the graduate-transfer quarterback an elite option in both cash games and tournaments once again this weekend. The Oklahoma Sooners are expected to score over 40 points this weekend, and as always, Jalen Hurts projects to be involved in the majority of the scoring plays in one way or another.
Brock Purdy, Iowa State, $7,700
Brock Purdy took over the starting job for the Iowa State Cyclones midway through last season, his freshman year, due to a rash of injuries at quarterback. Purdy surpassed all expectations during his freshman campaign, locking down the starting role entering his sophomore season. The young quarterback is surging up the rankings as one of the nation's best passers, and his Iowa State Cyclones are surging along with him. The Cyclones' two losses this season have both come against top-20 opponents, and this weekend they are projected to beat the Oklahoma State Cowboys by over 10 points at home. The Cowboys field a bottom-tier defense in every phase of the game, but most of all, against the pass. They rank dead-last on the slate in adjusted yards per pass attempt, a metric that takes into account yards, touchdowns, and interceptions. Purdy's results this season have been erratic, but he has reached at least 29.82 DraftKings points in 3 out of his last 5 outings. This weekend, Iowa State is projected to tally the second-most points on the slate, with a team total of 37.5 points in the betting markets. Expect Brock Purdy to continue his impressive sophomore season against a horrific Oklahoma State defense this weekend. At $7,700, he will be challenging to fit with Jalen Hurts in a single lineup, but he is a viable candidate for both cash games and tournaments. If building a cash lineup without Hurts, Purdy is the next-best option at the quarterback position.
Garrett Shrader, Mississippi State, $6,200
After the top-end options on this slate, the pickings are slim at the quarterback. Almost every quarterback situation below $7,00 is either shrouded in uncertainty or in a poor matchup. Garrett Shrader, the freshman quarterback for the Mississippi State Bulldogs, offers one of the safest floors at the quarterback position this weekend, even in a sub-par matchup against the Texas A&M Aggies. Since Shrader assumed the starting position for the Bulldogs, he has run for at least 62 yards in 5 straight games. This rushing production provides a solid floor of production for the freshman quarterback, as he also has an increased likelihood of finding the endzone on the ground. Rushing production, and especially touchdowns, are exceptionally valuable at the quarterback position. Rushing touchdowns, scoring six points instead of four points for a passing touchdown, are the best way for a bargain-bin option to reach value. Texas A&M's defense is an average unit in the SEC, ranking 28th nationally in defensive SP+. Mississippi State's freshman quarterback has also increased his level of play against the top defenses he has faced this season. His two highest-scoring fantasy days have come against LSU and Auburn, two of the top-10 teams in the country. Garrett Shrader's passing production has been inconsistent so far this season, which is to be expected with a freshman quarterback going through the gauntlet of an SEC schedule. This weekend, he needs just a mediocre passing day to reach value at only $6,200 on DraftKings. Should the Stanford quarterback situation (see the next quarterback breakdown) remain unclear leading up to Mississippi State's 12 o'clock eastern kickoff, Shrader is the best cheap option on the slate for cash games or tournaments thanks to his consistency running the football.
WILD CARD SITUATION
To preface this breakdown, I've dubbed this a "wildcard" situation because there's really no telling how it will play out, at least at the time of this being originally written and published. If there is no clarity before lock, it becomes an elite situation for a tournament play. If there is clarity one way or the other, it will open up an intriguing but sneaky option for cash games.
K.J. Costello, Stanford, $5,700
K.J. Costello posted one of the most surprising and impressive seasons of any quarterback in the entire country last year. This season, unfortunately, Costello has been unable to stay healthy. Following an ugly concussion in the season opener against Northwestern, Costello returned for two games against UCF and Oregon, 2 of the top-24 defenses in the nation, according to SP+. Costello hit his thumb on a lineman's helmet on his follow-through after a pass early in the game against Oregon. This injury has kept him out of the last three games, but he is officially listed as questionable for this weekend's game against Arizona. Costello was a limited participant in Stanford's practices on Tuesday and Wednesday. Following Wednesday's practice, head coach David Shaw said, "We're hopeful... K.J. is somewhere between questionable and probable." Should Costello return to action this weekend during Stanford's homecoming game against the Arizona Wildcats, he will be gifted one of the best matchups a power-five quarterback could ask for. Arizona runs an up-tempo offense, but this has adverse effects on the team's defense. The Wildcats are forced to defend an average of 76 plays per game, the second-highest total on the slate. This increase in tempo will help to maximize the production for Costello (if he plays) and Stanford's offense. Arizona's defense grades as one of the worst pass-defenses on the slate, and they fall even further when adjusting for the weak schedule they have faced so far this season. This weekend, if reports indicate that Costello will play, he is an option for cash games and tournaments. He will likely fly under the radar in both formats as a low-owned option across the board. If there is uncertainty regarding his status leading up to lock, he becomes a tournament-only option, as the risk of him not playing is not worth rostering in cash games. If beat writers confidently report that Costello will not play this weekend, either Davis Mills or Jack West will emerge as an interesting option in tournaments. Costello's 2019 numbers have been unimpressive in limited action against top-end defenses. However, his 2018 campaign inspires confidence that if he plays against Arizona's poorly-coached defense, he will have no trouble reaching value at just $5,700.
SATURDAY 11:00 AM UPDATE
K.J. Costello is a game time decision for today's game. He has practiced on a limited basis, and if I was forced to project his chances of playing this weekend I would tilt 60-percent in favor of him playing and a 40-percent chance that he sits. This is pure conjecture based on the week's reporting, but having read through everything available I believe he is more likely to play than not.
In the case that K.J. Costello does NOT play, TCU quarterback Max Duggan is an elite pivot at $5,800, $100 more than Costello. If Costello is in your lineup this afternoon, try your best to ensure you have at least that $100 in remaining salary to make this switch based on potential late news.
RUNNING BACK
Rodney Smith, Minnesota, $6,000
Rodney Smith, the number-one running back for the Minnesota Golden Gophers, has emerged as one of the Big Ten's best running backs over the last month of the season. Over the last four games, Smith has tallied at least 18 carries, 111 yards, and 1 touchdown every week, scoring at least 22.9 DraftKings points in each game. Minnesota's run-heavy offensive approach, coupled with favorable game scripts amidst their 7-0 start, has maximized Smith's role in the offense, and he is making the most of the opportunities this season. This weekend, the favorable game scripts are expected to continue, as Minnesota enters week nine as 16-point favorites over the struggling Maryland Terrapins. On the surface, Maryland's run defense has recorded respectable numbers thus far in 2019. However, upon further review, these numbers are primarily a byproduct of an easy schedule to open the season. While Maryland has not allowed gaudy rushing totals to anyone aside from Stevie Scott, their efficiency levels have been poor. Almost every number-one running back that has faced Maryland this season has seen their efficiency numbers, such as yards per carry, increase once their game against Maryland went final. Rodney Smith enters this weekend averaging nearly 20 carries per game and over 5.7 yards per carry this year. Expect Smith's volume to remain relatively constant, around 20 carries this weekend, but his elite efficiency numbers may improve even more against Maryland's weak run defense. Rodney Smith will likely be a popular choice across both cash games and tournaments this weekend, and for good reason.
Breece Hall, Iowa State, $6,500
Breece Hall, a true freshman from Wichita, Kansas, took over the starting role in Iowa State's backfield just two games ago. After two stellar performances as the Cyclone's bell-cow running back, fans are left wondering, "Why wasn't Hall the starting running back this whole time?" Hall has run for at least 132 yards and 2 touchdowns in each of his starts this season, scoring 35.7 and 42.6 DraftKings points in each game, respectively. This weekend, Breece Hall and the Iowa State Cyclones face off against Oklahoma State's horrific defense. The Cowboys have allowed an average of 23.08 DraftKings points per game to opposing running backs over their last 4 outings, and there will be no reprieve when they head to Ames to take on one of the best freshman running backs in the country. Hall has taken over 83-percent of all running back carries over the last two weeks for the Cyclones, and there is no reason to think his role will shrink this weekend. The Cyclones are projected to score the second-most points on the entire slate here in week eight, and in a game that they are favored by about 11 points, the run-game should see plenty of action. As mentioned above in the quarterback section, Brock Purdy is also a viable option at the quarterback position, which typically cuts into the value of a team's running back. However, in this matchup, both Purdy and Hall are quality options in both cash games and tournaments. There should be plenty of production to go around in this Iowa State offense here in week eight, as they play host to one of the Big 12's worst defenses. Expect Breece Hall to touch the ball approximately 20 times with similar efficiency numbers to his first two starts against Oklahoma State's horrific defensive front. After seeing Hall follow up his impressive debut as Iowa State's starter with an even better performance against a significantly tougher opponent, the hype train is running full-steam-ahead this weekend. Hall will likely be the most-popular running back on the slate in all formats, and he should be a building-block piece for cash lineups here in week eight.
Cam Akers, Florida State, $7,500
Cam Akers has been one of the largest beneficiaries of Florida State hiring Kendal Briles as the team's new offensive coordinator in 2019. Briles' spread offense does a great job masking the offensive line deficiencies that held back Florida State's rushing attack in previous years. This season, Akers has been one of the most consistent fantasy producers in the entire country, scoring at least 17.4 DraftKings points in every game against a non-Clemson opponent. Akers averages 22 carries and 3 receptions per game this season, giving him a supremely-high floor due to the sheer volume he receives. This weekend, he and the Florida State Seminoles face the Syracuse Orange. Syracuse's season has been mightily disappointing following an impressive 2018 campaign. Their 2019 struggles have come against far easier competition, as well. The Orange have allowed nearly 150 rushing yards per game this season while facing the second-easiest schedule of any defense. This weekend, the Syracuse Orange will head down to Tallahassee, Florida for one of their toughest tests to date in 2019. Expect Cam Akers to see his usual rushing and receiving volume, and in this matchup, that could mean season-high rushing and/or receiving totals. Akers is one of the strongest plays on the slate, and if his $7,500 price tag is doable for a cash lineup, he makes for an excellent cash play this week, where he will surely be a popular option.
Cameron Scarlett, Stanford, $5,700
While his season rushing totals may not be anything eye-popping, senior Cameron Scarlett is the undoubted bell-cow in Stanford's backfield. Scarlett averages over 22 touches per game on about 20 carries and 3 targets each week so far in 2019. This weekend, a matchup against Arizona's horrific defense stands out as one of the best situations for any running back on the entire slate. Arizona's defense is one of the worst units in the nation, from the poor coaching down to the lack of talent at an individual level. This season, they've allowed a first down every 3.9 rushing attempts, the worst mark on the slate, showing that when the opposition needs to move the chains, they can consistently rely upon the ground game to make that happen. The Wildcats also allow 4.6 yards per carry this season, the second-worst mark on the slate. This mark is especially poor considering the fact that Arizona has played one of the easiest schedules of any power-five team this season. The team's up-tempo offense forces their defense onto the field more than almost any other team on the slate, defending an average of 76 plays per game, the second-highest mark on the slate. In all, Cameron Scarlett has one of the best matchups he will see all season against the Arizona Wildcats this weekend. At $5,700, Scarlett is a prime candidate for lineups in all formats in a week where there are four standout options at the running back position.
WIDE RECEIVER
Tamorrion Terry, Florida State $5,600
Kendal Briles' up-tempo offense has injected new life into Florida State's entire offense. Briles' arrival has worked wonders this season, maximizing the production of top-end talents at skill positions that had otherwise struggled in the Seminoles' pro-style offense. Tamorrion Terry, much like the previously mentioned Cam Akers, has thrived in Florida State's new offense, averaging nearly eight targets per game in 2019. Terry has been a model of consistency in 2019, scoring at least 11.7 DraftKings points in every game this season while commanding at least 7 targets in every game except 1. Over his last three games, Terry averages nearly nine targets per game, and this weekend's matchup against Syracuse's struggling defense projects as a fantastic opportunity for Terry to register his first 100-yard game of the season. Syracuse's pass defense ranks as a below-average unit this season, and that doesn't account for the exceptionally easy schedule they have faced. Once adjusting for their weak strength of schedule, Syracuse's pass defense plummets down the rankings. This matchup also pins two of the fastest-paced offenses in the country against each other, which will almost certainly lead to a high-scoring affair. Tamorrion Terry has found the endzone 6 times across 7 games this season, and the betting markets project Florida State to total over 35 points this weekend. Terry is as likely as any wide receiver on the slate to find the end zone this weekend. At just $5,600, Tamorrion Terry is one of the best options on the slate at wide receiver. Confidently plug Terry into any and all lineups this weekend against Syracuse's overrated defense.
Collin Johnson, Texas, $5,600
Collin Johnson entered the 2019 season with sky-high expectations following an impressive 2018 campaign, coupled with the departure of Texas' leading receiver, Lil'Jordan Humphrey. A hamstring injury sidelined Johnson for a handful of games after appearing in Texas' first two games of the season. During that time, Johnson's price on DraftKings dropped from $6,800 down to $5,200. In his two games since his return, Johnson has outplayed his low-$5,000 price tag, but his price is still suppressed. Averaging nearly 10 targets per game since returning from injury 2 weeks ago, Johnson's role in this offense resembles the near-$7,000 player that DraftKings originally had him pegged as, not the mid-$5,000 player they currently price him as. Over those 2 games, Johnson has posted an average of 7 catches for 89 yards. However, he has neither found the endzone nor eclipsed 100-yards in either game, keeping his overall fantasy production from spiking too high, which would trigger a dramatic, and warranted price increase. This weekend, Johnson's projected volume far outpaces his price tag on DraftKings, and at just $5,600, he makes for an elite option in both cash games and tournaments. The matchup against TCU's defense is certainly less-than-ideal, but the volume projects to be more than enough to compensate for that.
Jalen Reagor, TCU, $5,500
Jalen Reagor entered the 2019 season as a projected first-round draft pick in the upcoming 2020 NFL Draft. A run-heavy approach from TCU to open the season has kept him bottled up, for the most part, this season, containing the hype surrounding Reagor. However, his remarkable talent level is undeniable, and whether TCU throws the ball 5 times or 50 times, Reagor will always be a threat to break off a big play. This weekend, against a Texas secondary depleted by numerous injuries, the TCU Horned Frogs will likely increase their passing volume in accordance with the matchup. Reagor has been targeted on over 25-percent of TCU pass attempts this season, one of the highest marks on the entire slate. Given the relative lack of volume in TCU's passing attack leading up to this week, Reagor's production had been uninspiring until two weeks ago. Jalen Reagor has posted 21.9 and 17.0 DraftKings points over the last two games, respectively, and this weekend's matchup against Texas' defense projects as an even better matchup than either of those games. Expect TCU's offense to increase its passing volume against a Texas Longhorns team that sports one of the conference's best offenses, coupled with one of the conference's worst pass defenses. Just last weekend, the Kansas Jayhawks tallied over 300 passing yards and 4 touchdowns through the air. This weekend, the TCU Horned Frogs' offense should have no trouble moving the ball through the air, and Jalen Reagor will certainly play a large role in this passing attack. At just $5,500, Reagor's ceiling of production is as high as any wide receiver on the slate. He's a strong candidate for both cash games and tournaments here in week nine thanks to his dominance in TCU's passing attack and a fantastic matchup against Texas' poor defense.
Trishton Jackson, Syracuse, $6,900
Trishton Jackson has been the lone bright spot in Syracuse's disappointing season thus far. Jackson seemingly came out of nowhere in week two against Maryland when he erupted for 7 receptions, 157 yards, and 2 touchdowns, but he has not looked back since. Jackson has tallied at least eight targets in every game except one this season, and a matchup against Florida State's middling defense projects as another favorable spot for the sophomore. Florida State's up-tempo offense forces their defense onto the field more often than any other team on the slate by a large margin. Defending an average of 83 plays per game, their defense plays nearly 10-percent more snaps than any other team on the DraftKings main slate of games this weekend. Syracuse's up-tempo offense matches up perfectly against the Seminoles' defense, and they will be prepared to fight fire with fire as they deploy an up-tempo spread offense of their own. This slate lacks many viable top-end wide receiver options, which is why Trishton Jackson stands out at $6,900. Jackson will likely fly under the radar in all formats, and while he is a strong option in cash games, he will be tough to fit with the high-priced options at quarterback and running back this weekend. In tournaments, rostering Jackson will be an extremely contrarian high-ceiling move, both because of his production on its own as well as the lineup construction necessary to fit Jackson into a lineup. Trishton Jackson is one of the best tournament options on the slate this weekend, as he should not be a very popular player in these large-field contests, but his ceiling of production is enormous.