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This weekend's slate of college football games features just three matchups between two ranked opponents, a sharp come-down after the high of last week's loaded Saturday of games. Washington and Oregon face off at 3:30 PM ET in a game that may ultimately put the nail in the coffin for the PAC 12's long-shot hopes of getting a team into the College Football Playoff. Then, the marquee game for the night slate of games is between two Big Ten rivals: Michigan and Penn State. Penn State has yet to lose a game this season while Michigan's 2019 campaign has been disappointing out of the gate. Head coach Jim Harbaugh has failed to win the "big games" during his tenure at Michigan, and if another disappointment against a top-10 opponent doesn't put him on the hot seat, I'm not sure what could at this point. Meanwhile, the DraftKings main slate of games is headlined by a few injuries at key positions that have opened up massive value spots for DFS lineups, while allowing players to pay up for some of the most reliable fantasy producers in the entire country. Best of luck to everyone, and I hope this article helps steer you in the right direction when building your week eight fantasy lineups!
As always, if you have any questions, comments, or concerns about this article, feel free to reach out to me on twitter @ThaGreatZambino!
STRATEGY NOTE
There is one fundamental difference between NFL DFS and College Football DFS, and that is lineup construction. A college football removes the tight end and defense positions from a lineup and replaces them one super flex position. The super flex position can be filled by a quarterback, running back, or wide receiver. On nearly every single slate throughout the year rostering a second quarterback in the super flex position will be optimal in both cash games and tournaments. Keep this in mind all year when building lineups.
SLATE SNAPSHOT
Listed here are the most notable games for DFS purposes. In green are games with the highest projected totals, according to betting markets, and in red are the games with the lowest projected totals on the slate. Try to avoid using too many players in any single lineup from the game(s) in red. On the other hand, the game(s) in green should provide enough points and fantasy points across the board to make multiple pieces on each team viable for fantasy lineups.
- Oklahoma State @ Baylor | Oklahoma State -3, Total: 67.5
- LSU @ Mississippi State | LSU -17.5, Total: 62
- Florida @ South Carolina | Florida -5, Total: 46
QUARTERBACK
Jalen Hurts, Oklahoma, $9,000
Inexplicably, Jalen Hurts' price remains the exact same here in week eight following a 41.8-point performance last weekend in Oklahoma's win over Texas. So far, in 2019, Jalen Hurts has scored at least 36.82 DraftKings points against every FBS opponent that he and the Sooners have faced, and at least 41.5 DraftKings points in 4 out of 5 of those games. Hurts' head coach and play-caller, Lincoln Riley, has made a living at Oklahoma by designing offensive systems that are tailor-made to fit the strengths of his quarterbacks. Two years ago, Baker Mayfield thrived in Riley's spread offense that asked Mayfield to process a lot of information in a short time and find the open receiver. Last season, Riley adjusted the offense to maximize the athletic ability of Kyler Murray by getting him into space and make plays with his legs. Both seasons ended with Riley's quarterbacks hoisting the Heisman Trophy in New York City. This season, Lincoln Riley has re-designed his offense once again to fit the strengths of Jalen Hurts as a quarterback. Hurts, as a more physical runner, can run between the tackles on designed running plays much more successfully than Mayfield or Murray could. So far, in 2019, Hurts averages over 100 rushing yards and 1 rushing touchdown per game, which equates to over 19 DraftKings points before including his passing production. Jalen Hurts' price should be significantly higher than $9,000 at home against the West Virginia Mountaineers. The Oklahoma Sooners are projected to score nearly 50 points in this matchup, and Hurts will contribute on the ground and through the air in another Oklahoma offensive explosion. While he will be tough to fit into lineups at such a steep price tag, Hurts is a fantastic option in both cash games and tournaments, where he will likely be one of the most popular players at the quarterback position.
Devon Modster, California, $5,700
Following a shoulder injury to Cal's starting quarterback, Chase Garbers, Devon Modster, was thrown into the fire against Arizona State two weeks ago. Then, in Modster's first start following a full week of preparation with the first team, he had the displeasure of facing Oregon's top-ranked defense, according to SP+, last weekend. This week, Modster and the California Golden Bears face one of the weakest defenses in the nation: the Oregon State Beavers. Oregon State ranks 110th in the nation in defensive SP+, second-worst amongst all power five teams. Modster's numbers were understandably poor last week, posting just 12.6 DraftKings points against Oregon, but the underlying statistics inspire confidence leading up to week eight. Modster finished the day with 6 non-sack rush attempts for 59 rushing yards against the Ducks, which is substantially higher than expected considering his designation as a pro-style quarterback. Both in his limited time against Arizona State and in a full-game Oregon, Modster showed a surprising floor of production rushing the football. In week eight, against a horrid defense that has allowed at least 31 points to every FBS team on its schedule, Modster's passing production should increase dramatically compared to last week. At just $5,700, Modster projects as a much stronger candidate for DFS lineups this week thanks to his floor of rushing production and increased ceiling of passing production. Considering the limited data available to evaluate Devon Modster's talent level, there is a higher inherent risk-level to rostering him than most other quarterbacks on this slate. However, at such a low price, that uncertainty is acceptable in an elite matchup against Oregon State. Consider Modster in risk-tolerant cash lineups this weekend, and he is an elite tournament option as well.
Kelly Bryant, Missouri, $6,900
Kelly Bryant's price on DraftKings has dipped below $7,000 for the first time this season here in week eight against the Vanderbilt Commodores. Vanderbilt fields the worst defense in the entire SEC and one of the bottom-five defenses in any power-five conference. The betting market projects the Missouri Tigers to score nearly 40 points this weekend. Dual-threat quarterback Kelly Bryant has yet to post strong rushing and passing numbers in the same game this season, limiting his upside at the quarterback position. This weekend's matchup against Vanderbilt's 99th-ranked defense, according to SP+, is an ideal situation for a discounted Kelly Bryant to erupt and potentially break the slate. Bryant has scored at least 20 DraftKings points in every full game he has played this season, offering a solid floor of production. Head coach Barry Odom has expressed his intent to utilize Kelly Bryant's legs more once conference play started this season, which provides a massive boost to Bryant's fantasy viability. Bryant has registered at least 7.7 DraftKings points on the ground alone in 2 of his last 3 outings, and there is still room for improvement on this front. Look for Kelly Bryant to put on a show against Vanderbilt's struggling defense here in week eight, making him a strong candidate for both cash and tournament lineups at just $6,900.
SECONDARY OPTION
Trevor Lawrence, Clemson, $7,300
Trevor Lawrence entered the season as the favorite to win the 2019 Heisman Trophy following a stellar finish to his 2018 national championship-winning campaign. Lawrence, however, sputtered out of the gates this year with a handful of unimpressive passing performances. Lawrence has flashed his upside, both as a runner and a passer, in recent weeks, and a week eight matchup against a Louisville defense that allowed nearly 60 points to Wake Forest last weekend is a great matchup for him and the Clemson passing attack. Louisville's overall outlook as a program is much brighter now under head coach Scott Satterfield than it was under Bobby Petrino, but the lack of talent is holding the Cardinals back in 2019. Louisville fields the 91st-ranked defense in the country, according to SP+, one of the worst defenses in the ACC. Louisville has allowed at least 35 points in 3 straight games, and a matchup with the Clemson Tigers offers no reprieve. The betting markets Clemson to score over 42 points in this game, and Trevor Lawrence's combination of rushing a passing ability makes him a strong candidate for tournament lineups this weekend. So far, in 2019, Lawrence has run for a touchdown in every single game against FBS competition, as well as 40+ rushing yards in each of his last three games against FBS opponents. Lawrence's passing prowess was lauded all offseason after he shredded the top-ranked passing defenses of Notre Dame and Alabama in the 2018 College Football Playoff, but his rushing ability seems to have flown under the radar. Last weekend, against the Florida State Seminoles, Lawrence posted 28.8 DraftKings points with only 170 yards through the air. Lawrence's ceiling of production is far higher than his $7,300 price tag implies. If he couples even an average passing day, by his standards, with his consistent rushing production, he can feasibly reach that ceiling here in week eight against Louisville's struggling defense. Trevor Lawrence is primarily a tournament option this weekend, given the other similarly-priced options at the quarterback position.
RUNNING BACK
UPDATED: SATURDAY MORNING AT 11:15 AM ET
The Auburn running back situation has become increasingly unclear. While Kam Martin is still likely to start the game, the Tigers have a deep stable of capable running backs that will likely see time against Arkansas. D.J. Williams stands out as a backup that is poised for significant playing time this afternoon- at just $3,000, he is tough to ignore. The $1,600 in savings that come with Williams as opposed to Martin can go a long way in lineup construction, making Williams another viable candidate for both cash and tournament lineups. Do not roster both D.J. Williams and Kam Martin in the same lineup this weekend unless you're feeling especially risk-tolerant. Martin will likely outscore Williams when all is said and done, but the edge likely goes to Williams in points-per-dollar.
In short, Kam Martin is not as strong of a play this weekend as originally stated in this article, while D.J. Williams has emerged as a viable candidate for all formats at the site-minimum price of $3,000.
Kam Martin, Auburn, $4,600
During Auburn's bye week last week, starting running back, JaTarvious Whitlow underwent knee surgery that is expected to keep him out of action for upwards of one month. In his place, Kam Martin is slated to step into the starting role in Auburn's run-heavy offense against the Arkansas Razorbacks. Auburn enters the game as 19.5-point favorites over Arkansas' struggling defense, making this an excellent situation to work Kam Martin into the offense and build continuity for the coming month. So far, in 2019, Arkansas' run defense has struggled to contain opposing running backs, allowing 6 different players to run for at least 4.7 yards-per-carry (amongst players to accumulate at least 10+ carries in the game.) Just last weekend, Arkansas allowed two different Kentucky players to close in on the century mark on the ground, with Lynn Bowden, Jr. running for 196 yards and A.J. Rose going for 90 yards of his own. In his first start of the season, Kam Martin's price remains unadjusted for his new role. At just $4,600, Martin provides elite value this weekend against one of the SEC's worst defenses, making him a strong candidate for both cash and tournament lineups.
Chuba Hubbard, Oklahoma State, $8,300
In the offseason leading up to the 2019 season, Oklahoma State hired a new offensive coordinator, Sean Gleeson, after Mike Yurich left for a position on Ohio State's staff. Gleeson has rebuilt Oklahoma State's offense according to its greatest strength this season: the running game. The Cowboys have a strong dual-threat quarterback, Spencer Sanders, along with one of the most efficient running backs in the country, Chuba Hubbard. Through 5 games against FBS competition, Hubbard has recorded at least 25 carries for 120 yards in every single game, along with multiple rushing touchdowns in 4 out of 5 of those games. Through just 6 total games this season, Hubbard already leads the nation with 1,094 rushing yards, over 200 more than the second-leading rusher in the country. In week eight, the Oklahoma State Cowboys face the Baylor Bears as 3.5-point favorites. In Baylor's 3 games against Big 12 opponents, they have allowed each starting running back to run for at least 5.2 yards-per-carry, including a 153-yard and 2-touchdown performance last week by SaRodorick Thompson. In a matchup projected to total nearly 68 points between the two teams, Oklahoma State should have more than its fair share of scoring opportunities. Expect Chuba Hubbard to post another high-volume and high-efficiency day on the ground with the potential for multiple scores once again. At $8,300, he will be difficult to fit into lineups without using numerous cheap value plays elsewhere, but he is the unquestioned number-one running back on the slate. Consider rostering Hubbard in both cash games and tournaments this weekend, where he will likely be one of the most popular options on the entire slate.
Larry Rountree III, Missouri, $6,700
Larry Rountree III has taken over as Missouri's number-one running back in recent weeks, separating from Tyler Badie as the obvious top-dog in rushing situations. While Badie thrives in the passing game, Rountree III dominates the rushing attempts in Missouri's backfield. In The Missouri Tigers' last three games against power-five opponents, Rountree III has tallied 21, 23, and 17 carries in each contest, respectively. Rountree III has seven rushing touchdowns to his name already this season, and he outgains all other Missouri players with at least 27 carries this season by almost one full yard-per-carry. This weekend, Missouri heads to Vanderbilt to take on the SEC's worst defense. Vanderbilt ranks 99th in the nation in SP+, one of the worst marks of any power-five team. The Commodores are especially weak defending the run this season, allowing gaudy rushing numbers to practically everyone on their schedule, including the UNLV Rebels last weekend. UNLV's two leading rushers combined for 185 yards and 2 scores last weekend. The week prior, Ole Miss had 4 players rush for at least 65 yards and 1 touchdown against Vanderbilt. Expect Larry Rountree III to continue to lead Missouri's backfield in rushing production once again in week eight. A matchup against Vanderbilt's horrific run defense is amongst the best that any running back could ask for this season, making Rountree III a viable option in all formats here in week eight.
SECONDARY OPTION
Christopher Brown, Jr., California, $5,900
Christopher Brown, Jr.'s numbers so far in 2019 have been less than impressive, but the volume is there for him in a Golden Bears' backfield that is battling injury. Cal's starting quarterback Chase Garbers suffered a shoulder injury two weeks ago that will keep him sidelined indefinitely. Cal's already run-heavy offense will likely shift even further in that direction with their backup quarterback, Devon Modster, under center. Additionally, Brown, Jr.'s backup, Marcel Dancy, was sidelined last weekend with an undisclosed injury. While Dancy is likely to play this weekend, his will almost certainly be operating at less-than 100-percent against Oregon State's horrendous defense. Christopher Brown, Jr. averages over 15 carries-per-game in games that Dancy plays in, and a matchup against the Beavers' struggling run defense should make that more than enough to reach value here in week eight. Oregon State's defense ranks 110th in the nation in defensive SP+, the second-worst mark amongst all power-five schools. Through six games, they have yet to hold a team under 31 points so far in 2019. Given the other highly-involved running back options on the slate Brown, Jr. grades as a second-tier option in cash games here in week eight. However, his upside in an elite matchup makes him a strong tournament selection, as he needs just one or two big plays to make a massive impact. Christopher Brown, Jr. stands out as the obvious top option in the $5,000 to $6,000 price range at the running back position, but he should primarily be considered in tournaments this weekend.
WIDE RECEIVER
Justin Jefferson, LSU, $7,300
Justin Jefferson has been one of the most impressive players in LSU's new-look offense here in 2019. Few expected LSU to transform into an offensive juggernaut in the blink of an eye, but with at least 42 points in every game this season, that is exactly what happened. Through just six games in 2019, Jefferson has nearly matched his receiving totals across the board from 2018. After leaving LSU's week five game against Vanderbilt early due to an injury, Jefferson has tallied 10+ targets in back-to-back weeks while Terrace Marshall, Jr. has been sidelined with a leg injury of his own. In Marshall's absence, there has been no third wide receiver to step up and fill the void he left in the passing attack. Instead, Ja'Marr Chase and Justin Jefferson have stepped up and assumed more substantial roles in the passing game to compensate for the loss of one of the team's leading pass-catchers. This weekend, LSU takes on Mississippi State's disappointing defense. The Bulldogs entered the 2019 season with hopes of contending in the SEC on the backs of a strong defense, but they have struggled to defend top-end wide receivers so far in 2019. Mississippi State has allowed both of the true number-one receivers they have faced this season, Seth Williams and Lynn Bowden, Jr., to go for at least 7 catches and 129 yards through the air, with Williams finding the end zone twice. The betting markets expect the LSU Tigers to close in on 40 points once again in week eight. In LSU's pass-heavy offense, Justin Jefferson's role is as secure as any in the country. Expect Jefferson to close in on double-digit targets once again this weekend with as much receiving upside as any player on the slate. Consider rostering Justin Jefferson in both cash games and tournaments here in week eight.
Johnathon Johnson, Missouri, $5,200
Johnathon Johnson checks in as Missouri's number-one wide receiver in week eight at just $5,200 against the Vanderbilt Commodores. Vanderbilt's defense grades as the worst in the entire SEC and the Missouri Tigers are projected to score nearly 40 points against them this weekend. Johnathon Johnson's target numbers have been volatile throughout the season, with eight or more targets in three games and three or fewer targets in three games so far this season. Digging deeper, Johnson's role in the offense is heavily dependent upon the opponent for the Missouri Tigers. His lowest-target games came in matchups against an FCS opponent, a low-end group-of-five opponent, and in a game when quarterback Kelly Bryant left early due to an injury. This weekend, in an expected offensive explosion for the Missouri Tigers, there should be plenty of offensive production to go around. Johnathon Johnson leads Missouri in targets, receptions, and yards, but he has yet to find the end zone in 2019. Positive regression is on the horizon for Johnson, and there may not be a better situation to capitalize than against one of the weakest defenses on Missouri's schedule. Stacking Johnathon Johnson with his quarterback, Kelly Bryant, is a viable strategy in cash games this week. A full-team stack including Johnson, Bryant, and running back Larry Rountree III is also in play in week eight for tournaments, much like last week's Arizona State stack. At just $5,200, Johnathon Johnson is far too cheap in a fantastic matchup against the Vanderbilt Commodores, and he warrants consideration in all formats.
Emeka Emezie, NC State, $5,400
Following the departure of NC State's two top receivers, Kelvin Harmon and Jakobi Meyers, Emeka Emezie was the lone returning member of the Wolfpack with more than 28 receptions in 2018. Emezie entered the 2019 campaign as NC State's obvious number-one wide receiver, and following a season-ending knee injury to the team's number-two pass-catcher, C.J. Riley, Emezie has assumed an even larger role than anticipated. Through 6 games, Emeka Emezie averages over 10 targets-per-game this season. While his production has been inconsistent, NC State's number-one receiver is poised for some positive regression through the air. Emezie has scored just once so far in 2019 on his 61 targets, and his catch-rate is currently only slightly above 50-percent on the season. Last season, Emezie found the end zone 5 times on 80 targets while hauling in over 66-percent of his targets on the season. This weekend, the NC State Wolfpack heads up to Boston to take on Boston College's 101st-ranked defense, according to SP+. Boston College also runs one of the fastest-paced offenses in college football, maximizing the scoring opportunities for not only themselves but also their opponents. This combination of high volume and low efficiency makes the Golden Eagles' defense one of the best to target in DFS lineups. Emeka Emezie is another strong target in all formats this weekend at just $5,400- his floor of production is higher than Johnson's, but do not shy away from rostering both in cash or tournament lineups in week eight.
R.J. Sneed, Baylor, $4,100
R.J. Sneed is the ultimate salary-saving option at the wide receiver position in week eight. The true-sophomore entered the 2019 season with just one reception to his name, but he has seen his role in Baylor's offense grow over time. Last weekend, Sneed led the Bears with eight targets against Texas Tech. Sneed's production has been largely unimpressive, with just two double-digit fantasy performances so far this season, but the underlying numbers are trending upwards for the youngster. Sneed has finished with at least seven targets in two out of the team's last three games, and he has hauled in over two-thirds of his targets on the season. This weekend, Baylor plays host to the Oklahoma State Cowboys in what is projected to be the highest-scoring game on the entire main slate of games. Baylor also enters the game as 3-point underdogs in the game, which typically leads to a pass-heavy gameplan. R.J. Sneed's floor of production is quite low, relative to the other players listed above, but given his bottom-dollar price, he warrants consideration in all formats. Sneed can reach value in just one play this weekend if he finds the end zone here in week eight. A high-volume passing day for Baylor's offense is the perfect scenario for R.J. Sneed to make good on his $4,100 price tag this weekend.