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DRAFTKINGS COLLEGE FOOTBALL BREAKDOWN WEEK 6
This college football season, aside from some minor shuffling within the top-ten, has yet to feature the trademark upsets that the sport is so well-known for. Now, as we enter the grind of conference-play, this will surely change sooner rather than later. From here on out, the college football schedule will be loaded with in-conference rivalry games, frequently between top-25 teams, and the upsets will rear their ugly heads. At this point, almost every team in the nation has faced a handful of formidable opponents, giving us a very strong idea of who each team is with regards to the team's talent-level and identity. For DFS purposes, on DraftKings, week six is all about the various mispricings across the board at almost every position. A handful of players stand out above the rest, as their respective prices have inexplicably remained unchanged following impressive performances in recent weeks, and we will look to take full advantage of that as we build CFB DFS lineups this weekend. Best of luck to all, and let's make a some money this weekend.
STRATEGY NOTE
There is one fundamental difference between NFL DFS and College Football DFS, and that is lineup construction. A college football removes the tight end and defense positions from a lineup and replaces them one super flex position. The super flex position can be filled by a quarterback, running back, or wide receiver. On nearly every single slate throughout the year rostering a second quarterback in the super flex position will be optimal in both cash games and tournaments. Keep this in mind all year when building lineups.
SLATE SNAPSHOT
Listed here are the most notable games for DFS purposes. In green are games with the highest projected totals, according to betting markets, and in red are the games with the lowest projected totals on the slate. Try to avoid using too many players in any single lineup from the game(s) in red. On the other hand, the game(s) in green should provide enough points and fantasy points across the board to make multiple pieces on each team viable for fantasy lineups.
- Boston College @ Louisville | Louisville -5, Total: 61
- Arizona @ Colorado | Colorado -4, Total: 63
- Auburn @ Florida | Auburn -2.5, Total: 48.5
- Baylor @ Kansas State | Kansas State -2.5, Total: 47.5
QUARTERBACK
Jalen Hurts, Oklahoma, $9,300
Jalen Hurts makes a repeat appearance on the DraftKings main slate of games this weekend, and inexplicably his price has increased only $100. Last week against the Texas Tech Red Raiders, Hurts turned in his third 43-point performance of the season in as many games against FBS competition. This week, Hurts faces a far weaker Kansas Jayhawks defense in the Sooners' final tune-up before the Red River Rivalry against the Texas Longhorns. Last weekend Kansas allowed TCU to score 51 points on 4 rushing touchdowns and 2 passing touchdowns. Typically a game like this would be chalked up as a "look-ahead" spot for the Oklahoma Sooners- a game against an inferior opponent the week before one of the team's biggest games of the season. Last year, however, Lincoln Riley proved that he wouldn't allow his team to take any opponent lightly. Against the struggling Baylor Bears in the week before the 2018 Red River Rivalry, the Oklahoma Sooners scored 66 points while quarterback Kyler Murray accounted for 7 total touchdowns. Later in the season, in the game before taking on the 12th-ranked West Virginia Mountaineers, Oklahoma hung 55 points on the Kansas Jayhawks, with Kyler Murray involved in 5 of the team's touchdowns. Through four games, Jalen Hurts averages over 110 rushing-yards-per-game, and this sample includes a game against South Dakota when Hurts ran the ball just 8 times for 47 yards. Lincoln Riley has once again proved his schematic genius by constructing an offense that clearly maximizes Hurts' strengths as a quarterback. Hurts' $9,300 price tag will be difficult to fit into lineups, but he should be a priority once again this week, as he offers the highest floor and ceiling of any quarterback on the slate, and by a large margin.
Sean Clifford, Penn State, $7,100
So far, in 2019, Sean Clifford has posted three strong performances and one dud. That dud came in week three against the Pittsburgh Panthers on a very wet and ugly day. Clifford not only struggled to throw the ball (this was his only game with less-than 2 passing touchdowns,) but he failed to get going on the ground as well. Besides this matchup against Pitt, Clifford has run for at least 50 yards in every game this season, providing a strong boost to his fantasy performances. This weekend, Sean Clifford and the Nittany Lions host the struggling Purdue Boilermakers in the second Big Ten matchup for each team. Purdue's defense has been shockingly bad to start the 2019 season. While they were not an impressive unit in 2018 when they finished 88th in the nation in defensive SP+, few thought they would regress here in 2019, given the bevy of returning contributors they have. Somehow, the Boilermakers accomplished the unthinkable and managed to get even worse on defense this season, as they rank 105th in the nation in defensive SP+ entering this week six showdown with Penn State. Through the air, Purdue has allowed an average of 278 passing-yards-per-game so far this season. Included in that average is a low-end outlier against TCU's run-heavy offense that threw for just 75 yards in a 34-13 victory over Purdue. Penn State's passing attack is likely stronger than any Purdue has faced thus far in 2019, and the Nittany Lions should have no trouble moving the ball down the field and lighting up the scoreboard through the air this weekend. Look for Sean Clifford to stuff the stat sheet against the Big Ten's weakest defense, and at $7,100, it won't be too tough for him to reach value this weekend. Clifford is a stronger tournament option than cash-game selection this weekend because of his awkward price point. Rostering Clifford as the number-one quarterback on a roster requires fading Jalen Hurts or one of the other $8,000+ quarterbacks, which is ill-advised in cash-games. Also, rostering Clifford as the number-two quarterback on a roster, alongside an $8,000+ quarterback, will require massive bargain-bin selections elsewhere in the lineup. In sum, Clifford is a great play this weekend, but at $7,100, his price tag is more conducive to constructing a contrarian tournament-focused lineup than an optimal cash lineup.
Jett Duffey, Texas Tech, $6,000
Jett Duffey disappointed mightily last weekend against the Oklahoma Sooners. Reports surfaced just minutes before kickoff that Jackson Tyner would start the game as Texas Tech's first-team quarterback. Tyner, however, was benched after just two drives, and Jett Duffey took over the offense. The Red Raiders struggled mightily on the road, scoring only 16 points in Norman, but this weekend presents a far easier matchup. Earlier this week, head coach Matt Wells officially tabbed Duffey as the Red Raiders' starting quarterback while the original starter, Alan Bowman, heals from a shoulder injury. Duffey will now get a full week of work alongside Texas Tech's first-team offense, and he also gets the benefit of playing at home this weekend. Duffey is an elite dual-threat quarterback, even though he didn't show it last weekend in a blowout loss at the hands of the number-six team in the nation. Last season, Duffey ran for 80+ yards or a touchdown in 5 of his 7 appearances (including two partial performances where he either entered late as a backup or exited early due to an injury.) This week, Jett Duffey and the Texas Tech Red Raiders play host to the Oklahoma State Cowboys. Oklahoma State has played three games against power-five opponents so far this season, with one coming last weekend against the extremely run-heavy Kansas State Wildcats. In the other two power-five matchups, Oklahoma State allowed four passing touchdowns in each game. Expect a bounceback game from Jett Duffey and the Texas Tech offense this week against a weak secondary whose numbers are inflated by three games against bottom-tier passing attacks. At just $6,000, Duffey's combination of rushing and passing production projects high enough for him to be viable in all formats this weekend as a salary-saving quarterback option.
SECONDARY OPTION
Tanner Morgan, Minnesota, $6,500
Tanner Morgan's upside as a passer was on full display last weekend as the Minnesota Golden Gophers shredded Purdue's defense for 396 yards and 4 touchdowns through the air. This weekend, Minnesota gets another soft matchup as they play host to the Illinois Fighting Illini. Illinois' pass defense has allowed back-to-back 300+ yard, 3-touchdown performances over the last two games, and Tanner Morgan is equipped with above-average wide receivers to exploit this weakness here in week six. Rashod Bateman and Tyler Johnson have combined for 4 100+ yard games through the first 4 games of the 2019 campaign, and this weekend presents a serious opportunity for them both to clear that threshold on the same day for the first time this year. Minnesota enter the game as 14-point favorites, according to the betting market, and they're projected to score over 35 points in the game. Tanner Morgan and the Golden Gophers' passing attack should have no trouble moving the ball against a reeling Illinois defense, as Minnesota looks to keep their unbeaten season alive for another week. At $6,500, Morgan's lack of rushing ability will decrease his floor of production compared to similarly-priced quarterback options, but his ceiling as a passer far exceeds that of his peers. Look to Tanner Morgan as a contrarian option under-center in tournaments, as he is easily stackable with Tyler Johnson and/or Rashod Bateman in a game the Gophers should dominate.
RUNNING BACK
AJ Dillon, Boston College, $7,900
AJ Dillon is the engine that keeps Boston College's offense moving down the field in 2019. The Golden Eagles lost a vast amount of talent from their 2018 team, especially along the offensive line, but AJ Dillon has not missed a beat this season. Dillon has cleared the 150-yard mark in 3 straight games, and he has found the end zone 7 times in the first 5 games of his 2019 campaign. Excluding B.C.'s week two game against an FCS opponent, Richmond, Dillon has averaged over 26 carries-per-game. This weekend, Boston College's up-tempo offense heads down to the Bluegrass State to take on the rebuilding Louisville Cardinals. Head coach Scott Satterfield took over the Louisville football program this offseason after Bobby Petrino's tumultuous five-year stint at the helm. Satterfield took over a roster devoid of talent, as Petrino effectively stopped recruiting in the final years of his tenure. While Satterfield and his top-notch coaching staff have outperformed expectations through four games, the requisite talent to shut down a running back of AJ Dillon's caliber is simply not on Louisville's roster right now. Through four games, Louisville's defense ranks 71st in the nation in SP+. While it has been better than expected, Louisville's defense ranks in the bottom-50-percent of defenses, nationally. The Louisville Cardinals have played two games against power-five opponents so far in 2019, and they've allowed a 100-yard rusher in each of them. The chances they stop AJ Dillon from reaching the 100-yard bonus on DraftKings are slim, and he likely won't stop there. Dillon is one of the safest options at the running back position week-in and week-out. At $7,900, AJ Dillon is an elite cash play on DraftKings here against the Louisville Cardinals in week six.
Keaontay Ingram, Texas, $6,800
Keaontay Ingram will likely see a much larger role in Texas' rushing attack this weekend against West Virginia as the Texas Longhorns have one eye on the Red River Rivalry coming up next week against Oklahoma. Ingram is the team's number one running back, but Longhorns' quarterback Sam Ehlinger consistently poaches valuable carries from Ingram around the goal line. This weekend against the West Virginia Mountaineers, head coach Tom Herman will likely turn to Keaontay Ingram in the backfield to finish drives and convert in short-yardage situations. The goal here is to preserve the health of the team's star quarterback ahead of their most important game of the regular season. Herman did the same thing last season in the game before the Big 12 Championship game against Oklahoma. In that game against Kansas, Ehlinger carried the football just six times. Throughout the rest of the season, however, Sam Ehlinger averaged over 10 carries-per-game, not including sacks. Texas' two primary running backs, Keaontay Ingram and Tre Watson, split 27 carries almost evenly against Kansas. This season, Ingram has earned the lion's share of carries, and his workload will likely dwarf that of Roschon Johnson, Texas' new backup running back, against the West Virginia Mountaineers. Through four games this season, West Virginia has already allowed seven different running backs to run for at least 4.6 yards-per-carry (with five surpassing 5.1 yards-per-carry.) The Mountaineers are in the midst of a full-rebuild under their new head coach, Neal Brown. Look for Keontay Ingram to be heavily involved in Texas' offense this weekend against one of the Big 12's weaker defenses. At $6,800, Ingram is very reasonably priced in a game that projects to be one of his highest-volume days this season. Keaontay Ingram is viable in all formats, and if A.J. Dillon does not fit into a cash lineup, turn to Ingram with confidence.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire, LSU, $6,100
Clyde Edwards-Helaire has solidified his standing atop the LSU depth chart over the first month of the season. Edwards-Helaire is the number-one running back in one of the nation's most prolific offenses, and he has been exceptionally consistent in the role. Edwards-Helaire has scored at least 17.0 DraftKings points in every game so far this season, with at least one touchdown every week. This weekend, LSU, fresh off a bye week, hosts the Utah State Aggies. Betting markets favor the LSU Tigers by nearly four touchdowns in this non-conference matchup. LSU will likely play a far more conservative style of football this weekend than they have to start the season. Next week, the Tigers host the 10th-ranked team in the nation, the Florida Gators. LSU's goal this weekend, once the game is out of reach and victory is secured, should be to exit the game as healthy as possible. Last time out, the Tigers lost one of their top wide receivers, Terrace Marshall, Jr., to injury late in the game when the result of the game was already decided. The most effective way to kill the clock and end this game as quickly as possible is to increase the volume of the rushing attack. While Clyde Edwards-Helaire has consistently stuffed the stat sheet, he has yet to carry the ball more than 15 times in a game this season. Expect more volume for Clyde Edwards-Helaire on the ground this weekend against the Utah State Aggies. Even at his standard volume, Edwards-Helaire would have been a strong option at his unchanged price of $6,100. This increased expected workload makes Clyde Edwards-Helaire one of the best options on the DraftKings main slate of games, and he's a reliable option in all formats.
SECONDARY OPTION
James Gilbert, Kansas State, $5,300
James Gilbert, a graduate-transfer from Ball State, earned the starting running back job immediately after arriving on Kansas State's campus. The Kansas State Wildcats have one of the nation's most run-heavy offensive attacks, and James Gilbert is thriving in his new home in the heart of the midwest. Through four games, Gilbert has scored 4 touchdowns and ran for over 80 yards-per-game on nearly 6 yards-per-carry. This weekend, Gilbert and the Kansas State Wildcats play host to the Baylor Bears in a Big 12 matchup that the betting market expects Kansas State to win. Baylor opened the season with one of the easiest schedules any power-five school has ever faced; their strength of schedule ranks 120th out of 130 FBS teams. The Baylor defensive-front has yet to be tested the way Kansas State will test them this weekend. Rostering James Gilbert is undeniably risky this weekend, as there is a considerable chance that Baylor's defense will continue its strong play against stronger competition. However, there is also a substantial chance that Baylor's impressive numbers are simply a product of the weak competition they faced to open the season. At this point, it's impossible to know if the Baylor Bears' defense is as good as the metrics suggest they are, which is why Gilbert is such a risky option. James Gilbert certainly won't break the bank this weekend at just $5,300, and rostering him is essentially betting that Baylor's defense will falter against a better and more physical offense, like Kansas State's. Consider rostering Gilbert as a high-volume, low-cost tournament running back in a matchup filled with upside.
WIDE RECEIVER
K.J. Hamler, Penn State, $6,000
K.J. Hamler has led Penn State wide receivers in targets in each of the team's first four games so far in 2019. After leading the Nittany Lions' receiving corps in targets last season, Hamler has not missed a beat in 2019, even if the end-product may not be there right now. Hamler averages just four receptions-per-game so far in 2019, but the volume of targets he commands suggests that number will spike sooner rather than later. Over the last three games, Hamler has been targeted seven, nine, and eight times, respectively. Last week against Maryland, Hamler exploded for 6 receptions, 108 yards, and 1 touchdown in a mid-week blowout of the Terrapins. Hamler is an exceptional deep-threat, as shown by his 22.1 yards-per-reception, and he can break a slate in the blink of an eye. This weekend, Hamler and the Nittany Lions face-off with the Purdue Boilermakers' horrendous defense. Purdue ranks 105th in the nation in defensive SP+, the second-worst unit on the entire DraftKings main slate of games. Through four games, Purdue's secondary has allowed an average of 278 passing-yards-per-game, and that includes a week three game against TCU when the Horned Frogs went with their standard run-heavy approach and only compiled 75 yards through the air. Penn State's offense should have no issues moving the ball through the air against Purdue this weekend, and K.J. Hamler is both underpriced and the team's number-one pass-catcher. Stacking Hamler with quarterback Sean Clifford (listed above) is a viable strategy for both cash games and tournaments this weekend.
Tyler Johnson, Minnesota, $6,600
As it stands now, Tyler Johnson is expected to be a first-round pick in the NFL Draft come season's end, and he has shown why throughout Minnesota's last two games. Over the previous two games, Johnson has caught 18 of his 20 targets for 213 yards and 4 touchdowns. Each of these games came against bottom-tier collegiate defenses, and this weekend will be no different, as the scheduling gods have gifted Minnesota with a third straight matchup with an underperforming defense. The Minnesota Golden Gophers host the Illinois Fighting Illini in week five, and the betting markets project Minnesota to score over 35 points on the day. Illinois has been shredded through the air in each of their last two outings, allowing at least 316 passing yards and 3 touchdowns each game without generating a single interception. Overall, Illinois' defense ranks 87th in the country in defensive SP+, while Minnesota's offense ranks 14th nationally in offensive SP+. This matchup of Big Ten rivals sets up perfectly for Minnesota's passing attack to post eye-popping numbers for the third straight game. Tyler Johnson's connection with quarterback Tanner Morgan has clearly strengthened in recent weeks, as his targets and production have gradually increased, and the duo will face little resistance from the Illinois defense this weekend. Johnson, priced at $6,600, is a slightly better option than K.J. Hamler if comparing the two head-to-head, but they both are strong selections in all formats this weekend.
Collin Johnson, Texas, $5,200
Collin Johnson will be a game-time decision this weekend against the West Virginia Mountaineers. Make sure to plan ahead with a potential pivot away from Johnson if he is announced to be inactive before the game's 3:30 PM ET kickoff. The best source for this information is Twitter, and if I find anything, I will immediately tweet or R.T. whatever I find (if you don't already, follow me @ThaGreatZambino, whenever there is last second news, I'll always post or repost it to my timeline.) If news comes out early enough, this article will also be updated to reflect Johnson's status.
Collin Johnson, when active, is a massive piece of the Texas Longhorn's passing game. Johnson played in the first two games of the 2019 season before getting injured, and throughout those games, he commanded 8 and 6 targets, respectively. Johnson's role in Texas' offense was projected to grow from last season when he averaged 8.6 targets-per-game, the second-highest total on the team, but a hamstring injury has put a damper on the first month of his season. Johnson is officially a game-time decision this weekend against West Virginia, but if he plays, he is vastly underpriced on the DraftKings main slate. Johnson was priced at $6,800 for each of the first two games of the year (the only two he played in,) and now, after three weeks of rest, his price has inexplicably dropped down the $5,200. Collin Johnson, if active, is a fantastic value this weekend in a game that the betting markets project the Texas Longhorns to score over 35 points in. Johnson should see a sizable role in Texas' passing attack in his potential return to action this weekend in Texas' final tune-up before taking on Oklahoma in the Red River Rivalry next week. If Johnson is confirmed to be active for this game, $5,200 is a mind-bogglingly low price for a player of his talent and role in this offense. He will be a very popular option in all formats, and for good reason. Don't think twice before plugging Collin Johnson into a lineup this weekend if there is confirmation that he is healthy enough to make his return against West Virginia.
Stephen Sullivan, LSU, $4,000
LSU's sophomore-standout wide receiver, Terrace Marshall, Jr., went down with an ugly leg injury late in their most recent game against the Vanderbilt Commodores. Marshall, Jr. will be out indefinitely, causing some realignment in LSU's offense. Stephen Sullivan, who spent the offseason training to transition from wide receiver to tight end, will now move back to wide receiver to fill the void left by Marshall, Jr. Sullivan finished second on the team in targets last season, but that was in a completely different, run-heavy offense. Here in 2019, the LSU Tigers run one of the most pass-heavy attacks in the nation, and they have at least three wide receivers on the field for almost every snap. Sullivan's number of routes run-per-game will undoubtedly increase with this transition back out to wide receiver, which will inherently increase his opportunity to produce for the offense. Sullivan stands out as a viable salary-saving option this weekend at just $4,000 because of the change in expected volume this week compared to his first two games of the season. Stephen Sullivan averaged only 3.5 targets-per-game while playing tight end this season. The man Sullivan is replacing out wide, Terrace Marshall, Jr., averaged 6.5 targets-per-game throughout the first month of the season. It is easy to see why Sullivan's expected volume should increase in his new role, and at just $4,000 on the DraftKings main slate, his production should far exceed his bottom-dollar price tag.
SECONDARY OPTION
Sam James, West Virginia, $5,200
Sam James provides an elite pivot away from Collin Johnson at an identical price in the same game this weekend, either in a tournament lineup or if Johnson's hamstring injury does not heal in time, and he is a late scratch from Texas' lineup. James is West Virginia's undeniable number-one wide receiver this season, and he has averaged 10 targets-per-game throughout the first month of the 2019 campaign, his first as a starter. The West Virginia Mountaineers enter this week six matchup with the Texas Longhorns as 10-point underdogs. This expected result typically leads to a pass-heavy approach from the underdog to try to mount a rapid comeback against a superior team, which bodes well for Sam James' expected volume in the WVU passing game. Injuries have also decimated the Texas secondary in recent weeks, as the Longhorns enter this game without four different first or second-team defensive backs. Throughout the first month of the season, Sam James' volume in the West Virginia passing attack better resembles a $6,000 receiver on DraftKings than a near-$5,000 receiver. The end product has not consistently been there for James, as he only has one touchdown on the season. However, this week six matchup against a depleted Texas Longhorns' secondary projects as a strong one for Sam James, and he is a perfect pivot away from Collin Johnson in any contest format.