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DRAFTKINGS COLLEGE FOOTBALL BREAKDOWN WEEK 5
In week five, many teams are entering the toughest part of their schedules: conference play. Rivalries will dominate the headlines week-in and week-out for the rest of the season as many of the "cupcake" games are over for the year (except in the SEC, where they'll all randomly play one low-level FBS or FCS team in the second-to-last game of the season.) Following a great slate of games between top-25 teams last weekend, this weekend offers just two games between ranked opponents, both of which are on the DraftKings main slate of games. Elsewhere, there are a few games that stand out as elite matchups for fantasy purposes. Without further adieu, let's dive in to how we can best exploit these matchups and make some money here in week five of the college football season.
STRATEGY NOTE
There is one fundamental difference between NFL DFS and College Football DFS, and that is lineup construction. A college football removes the tight end and defense positions from a lineup and replaces them one super flex position. The super flex position can be filled by a quarterback, running back, or wide receiver. On nearly every single slate throughout the year rostering a second quarterback in the super flex position will be optimal in both cash games and tournaments. Keep this in mind all year when building lineups.
SLATE SNAPSHOT
Listed here are the most notable games for DFS purposes. In green are games with the highest projected totals, according to betting markets, and in red are the games with the lowest projected totals on the slate. Try to avoid using too many players in any single lineup from the game(s) in red. On the other hand, the game(s) in green should provide enough points and fantasy points across the board to make multiple pieces on each team viable for fantasy lineups.
- Wake Forest @ Boston College | Wake Forest -6.5, Total: 69
- Texas Tech @ Oklahoma | Oklahoma -27, Total: 70.5
- Kansas @ TCU | TCU -14, Total: 49
- Virginia @ Notre Dame | Notre Dame -11, Total: 48.5
QUARTERBACK
Jalen Hurts, Oklahoma, $9,200
Jalen Hurts tops the charts at the quarterback position with a hefty $9,200 price tag on the DraftKings main slate. Hurts, one of the most highly-touted college football transfers in recent memory, has stepped into Lincoln Riley's Oklahoma offense and kept the unit atop the national ranks. The 2019-version of the Oklahoma offense is constructed to maximize Hurts' prowess both as a physical runner and adequate passer. Hurts has reached 150 rushing yards in each of his two starts against FBS opponents in 2019. The Sooners have been relatively conservative through the air, with Hurts only throwing more than 20 passes in one game this season. This conservative approach to the passing game, however, does not reflect a lack of aggression from the offensive as a whole. The Sooners have scored at least 48 points in every game this season, with Hurts scoring at least 47.56 DraftKings points in each of the team's two games against FBS opponents. In week five, coming off of a bye-week, the Sooners play host to Texas Tech in what is shaping up to be a good old-fashioned BIG 12 shootout. Texas Tech relieved Kliff Kingsbury of his coaching duties following a poor 2018 campaign, specifically on defense. The Red Raiders' new head coach, Matt Wells, brings over an entirely new staff with him from Utah State including defensive coordinator, Keith Patterson. Patterson coached the Utah State Aggies to one of the league's strongest Group-of-Five defenses in 2018, but he has his work cut out for him in 2019. Patterson takes over a defensive unit at a severe talent disadvantage against some of the nation's highest-scoring offenses. The betting market has Oklahoma as a 27-point favorite in this game projected to total approximately 71 points between the two teams. This snapshot perfectly encapsulates the sheer magnitude of the mismatch at hand here in week five. Jalen Hurts has already racked up 16 touchdowns through just 3 games in the 2019 season, and this game against Texas Tech is shaping up to be another opportunity to pad his stats. Jalen Hurts' top-dollar price on DraftKings of $9,200 may scare some people away, but fear not, he possesses both the highest floor and ceiling of production on the entire slate. Starting lineups with Hurts at quarterback will force players into searching through the bargain-bin elsewhere, but on this slate, there is no better place to start a lineup than with Oklahoma's quarterback.
Kellen Mond, Texas A&M, $7,400
Texas A&M opened the season with as tough of a schedule as anybody in the nation. In the first month of the season, the Aggies faced 2 top-10 opponents: the Clemson Tigers in week two and the Auburn Tigers in week four. Both teams field top-flight defenses, and while Kellen Mond struggled against Clemson- as practically every collegiate quarterback does- he posted an impressive 27 DraftKings points against Auburn. Mond's combination of rushing and passing production provides one of the strongest floors at the quarterback position on a weekly basis. Here in week five against the Arkansas Razorbacks, Texas A&M's offense gets a reprieve from the stout power-five defenses they've taken on to open the season. The Aggies enter the game as 23-point favorites over the Razorbacks. The betting markets project Texas A&M's offense to score over 40-points on the day, and Kellen Mond is likely to be the primary offensive producer in this expected offensive explosion. While Texas A&M is heavily favored in this road game at Arkansas, it is unlikely to turn into a blowout like Texas A&M's two victories over Texas State and Lamar. The Aggies' first-team offense will likely stay on the field for the full 60-minutes here against Arkansas, allowing Mond and the rest of the starters to stuff the stat sheet against the 5th-worst defense on the entire main slate of games. At $7,400, Kellen Mond is one of the best and safest options below $8,000 on the DraftKings main slate of games. If building a lineup without Jalen Hurts this weekend, turn to Kellen Mond as a strong quarterback to construct a lineup around.
Jett Duffey, Texas Tech, $5,900
Texas Tech will, unfortunately, be without their starting quarterback, Alan Bowman for an extended period of time once again in 2019. Last season, Bowman went down with a collapsed lung and missed four games, thrusting Jett Duffey into action. Duffey is a dual-threat quarterback that thrived in Texas Tech's up-tempo offense under Kliff Kingsbury. Kingsbury was fired over the offseason and former-Utah State head coach, Matt Wells, takes over as the head coach for the Red Raiders. Wells and his offensive coordinator, David Yost (who accompanies Wells on Texas Tech's staff,) led Utah State to the 22nd-best offense in the entire country in 2018, according to SP+. Yost, a former assistant at both Oregon and Washington State, has studied under some of the best offensive minds in the country. These offensive tendencies and philosophies are prevalent in the current Texas Tech offense, which bodes well for Duffey's production in Bowman's absence. Duffey provides a safe floor at the quarterback position thanks to his running ability. In 5 starts last season, Duffey amassed at least 80-yards on the ground or a rushing touchdown in every game except for 1. Texas Tech's week five matchup against the Oklahoma Sooners is projected to be the highest-scoring affair of the entire DraftKings main slate of games. While Oklahoma's defense has performed far better early in 2019 than it did last season, it still ranks as an average unit, at best. In week one against D'Eriq King, another dual-threat quarterback, the Oklahoma Sooners allowed King to score nearly 34 DraftKings points. While Duffey is not a player of King's caliber, he possesses the same ability to beat the Sooners both on the ground and through the air. In a potential shootout between BIG 12 teams, Jett Duffey is by far the best salary-saving option at the quarterback position at just $5,900 in week five.
ALSO VIABLE
- Jamie Newman, Wake Forest, $7,800
- Charlie Brewer, Baylor, $7,700
- Anthony Russo, Temple, $6,400
RUNNING BACK
Darius Anderson, TCU, $6,500
TCU opened the season by heavily-utilizing two running backs: Darius Anderson and Sewo Olonilua. Through two games, Anderson and Olonilua had each carried the ball 22 and 25 times, respectively. In TCU's third game, however, Anderson emerged as the team's top running back, as he carried the ball 19 times to Oloniluwa's 5. When called upon, Darius Anderson has wowed coaches and fans here in 2019 with a stunning 9.0 yards-per-carry through three games. Here in week five, TCU plays host to the Kansas Jayhawks. The Jayhawks have long been the laughing stock of college football, and while they are slightly improved this season, they still have one of the nation's worst run-defenses. Head coach Les Miles will likely eventually improve the talent level of Kansas' football roster, but the team he inherited is bereft of defensive playmakers. Darius Anderson will be running against one of the worst run defenses in the nation on Saturday, as the Jayhawks rank 91st in the nation in opportunity rate allowed to opposing running backs. Kansas has been routinely dominated in the trenches to open the season, and with the third-worst defense as a whole on the DraftKings main slate of games, it is unlikely they will turn this around here in BIG 12 Conference play. Darius Anderson's workload is secure after emerging as TCU's starting running back, and a matchup with the Kansas Jayhawks is as favorable as he could have asked for. At $6,500, Darius Anderson will not break the bank and is a strong play in all formats this weekend.
Isaiah Spiller, Texas A&M, $5,100
Isaiah Spiller, a freshman running back for Texas A&M, struggled last weekend against the Auburn Tigers, one of the nation's strongest run defenses. On the season, Auburn has yet to allow an opposing running back to reach 80-yards rushing, so Spiller's struggles are justified, and in week five he will get a far easier matchup against the Arkansas Razorbacks. Spiller, one of the highest-ranked running back recruits in the freshman class, will likely see the bulk of the work in the Texas A&M backfield following a hamstring injury to Joshua Corbin in week two against the Clemson Tigers. Spiller also has the privilege of running behind a highly-experienced and highly-talented offensive line. Here in week five, Texas A&M is projected to beat Arkansas by 23-points, according to the betting markets. A 23-point victory typically lends itself to a run-heavy approach for Texas A&M, especially under head coach Jimbo Fisher. Fisher is a run-first play-caller that wants to slow the game down and command possession of the football. Arkansas, on the other hand, wants to play an up-tempo game and register as many possessions and scoring opportunities as possible. This clash of offensive styles will result in an increased pace-of-play for Texas A&M, making the Aggies' offensive weapons enticing for fantasy purposes. While Spiller may not see a bell-cow-like share of snaps and carries in Texas A&M's backfield, the talented freshman will almost certainly see enough action to pay off his middling $5,100 price tag on DraftKings. Spiller is viable in all formats this weekend, and he will likely be one of the most popular salary-saving running backs on the slate.
Tony Jones, Jr., Notre Dame, $4,500
Tony Jones, Jr., much like Isaiah Spiller, was inserted into a starting role in Notre Dame's backfield following an injury to the starter, Jafar Armstrong, early in the season. Through three games Jones, Jr. has seen little action aside from week one against the Louisville Cardinals. In that game, Jones, Jr. carried the ball 15 times for 110 yards and a score, but in the 2 games since, he has totaled just 15 carried for 38 yards and 0 touchdowns. The two more-recent games, however, are not reason to sound any alarms and panic about Jones, Jr.'s viability in the Fighting Irish backfield. In the team's second game, Notre Dame played host to New Mexico, one of the worst teams in the nation. Notre Dame won the game by a final score of 66-14, and head coach Brian Kelly elected to preserve many of the starters, including Tony Jones, Jr., ahead of a marquee matchup with the Georgia Bulldogs the following week. In that clash with one of the nation's best defenses, the Fighting Irish went with an extremely pass-heavy approach. Notre Dame ran the ball just 14 times on the day and had very little success in the process. Week five against the Virginia Cavaliers will not be an easy matchup by any stretch of the imagination, but it will be far easier than last week against Georgia. Virginia's run defense has been strong to start the season, but Notre Dame's offensive line ranks amongst the best in the nation. The Fighting Irish start former-five-star recruits across the board in the trenches and this unit will likely dominate Virginia in the trenches. Tony Jones, Jr. not only gets to run behind one of the nation's best offensive lines, but he proved last week that he is also a capable pass-catcher. Against Georgia, Jones, Jr. hauled in 4 of his 5 targets for 24 yards. Tony Jones, Jr. is a viable salary-saver at running back this week primarily due to his perplexing $4,500 price tag on the DraftKings main slate. Jones, Jr. will likely be the Notre Dame's most-utilized running back (even with Jahmir Smith returning to action this week) that gets to run behind one of the nation's best offensive lines. It won't take much for him to pay off this bargain-bin price tag, and he will likely be very popular because of it.
ALSO VIABLE
- Jonathan Taylor, Wisconsin, $9,000
- Richard Newton, Washington, $5,200 (Keep an eye on Salvon Ahmed's injury status. Newton's viability is entirely dependent upon Ahmed not playing)
- Jordan Mason, Georgia Tech, $5,400
WIDE RECEIVER
Jadan Blue, Temple, $5,100
Temple University's new head coach, Rod Carey, is an offensive-minded head coach that has fundamentally altered the scheme and tendencies of Temple's offense. In previous years, this offense was predicated on establishing the running game while focusing on short and easy passes through the air. In 2019, Carey has unleashed quarterback Anthony Russo in a pass-first offense that consolidates close to 75-percent of total targets with the top 3 wide receivers. Jadan Blue has been the most consistent and reliable of the bunch to open the season, and he projects for another strong performance in week five against Georgia Tech's struggling defense. Blue is the smallest and quickest wide receiver of the group, and Temple gets the most out of his athleticism through the use of short throws and jet sweeps to get him the ball in space. Blue averages 11.3 targets-per-game to start the season, and there is no reason to expect this total to drop whatsoever in a game where the betting markets project Temple to score nearly 30-points. At just $5,100, Jadan Blue's expected volume against one of the weakest defenses on the slate far outpaces his price tag. Blue is a fantastic place to start at the wide receiver position, and his middle-of-the-road price allows for flexibility fitting in studs elsewhere.
Kendall Hinton, Wake Forest, $5,000
Kendall Hinton, a starter for Wake Forest entering the 2019 season, injured his hamstring in week two against Rice. Primarily playing in the slot, Hinton commanded 11 targets in the Demon Deacons' season-opener against Utah State, tied for the most on the team. Hinton converted those 11 targets into 9 receptions for 66 yards and 1 touchdown, good enough for 21.6 DraftKings points on the day. After missing the last two games due to the aforementioned hamstring injury, Hinton returns to the starting lineup for Wake Forest in a road game against a struggling Boston College defense. Boston College's offense is one of the fastest in the nation, which, in turn, keeps their defense on the field for massive amounts of time week-in and week-out. In the team's two games against non-Rutgers FBS opponents, Boston College has allowed at least three passing touchdowns in each game. Inserting Hinton back into the starting lineup will undoubtedly improve an already-potent Wake Forest passing attack, and he comes at a discount in DFS. In week one, Hinton was priced at $5,300, followed by a $5,900 mark in week two. Now, in week five, Hinton costs just $5,000 following a few weeks of watching from the sideline. Wake Forest's offense is expected to score nearly 35-points against Boston College, meaning there should be plenty of production to go around. Hinton offers a strong pivot away from Jadan Blue at a comparable price-point, making him a viable option in tournaments, specifically.
Aaron Fuller, Washington, $5,700
In the mid-$5,000 price range, Aaron Fuller stands out as the number one option at wide receiver. Fuller has started the 2019 campaign hotter than he ever could have hoped for with five touchdowns in four games. The lone game that he was kept out of the endzone was in a 19-20 loss at the hands of the California Golden Bears. This week, Washington takes on the USC Trojans- a team in the midst of a major offensive transition to an up-tempo spread attack. This up-tempo offense has adversely impacted the USC defense. USC's defense is now on the field far more often than it has been in years past, which bodes well for Aaron Fuller and the Washington Huskies' aerial attack. Fuller's role in the Washington offense is extremely consistent, with at least seven targets in every game this season. He also possesses the requisite big-play ability to break a game wide open in the blink of an eye. Of Fuller's 4 receiving touchdowns this season, 3 of them were longer than 20-yards, and as a punt returner, he got on the board last weekend with his first special-teams-touchdown of the season. Aaron Fuller's combination of consistency and explosiveness makes him a viable candidate for DFS lineups in any contests this weekend. He has a strong floor of production in a paced-up spot against the USC Trojans, and he has shown the ability to break off long touchdowns with regularity here in 2019. His ceiling may not be as high as other top-end receivers on this slate, but for $5,700, his expected level of production is unmatched for his price range.
T.J. Vasher, Texas Tech, $7,100
T.J. Vasher tops the charts as Texas Tech's number-one wide receiver week-in and week-out now that Antoine Wesley has departed for the NFL in 2019. Through three games, Vasher averages 11.3 targets-per-game, by far the highest total on the team. Here in week five, Vasher and the Texas Tech Red Raiders head to Norman, Oklahoma to take on the Oklahoma Sooners in what is expected to be a shootout. The two teams are projected to combine for over 70 points on the day, and as massive underdogs, the Red Raiders will likely throw the ball early and often. Oklahoma's defense is under new guidance in 2019, as they brought in Alex Grinch as the team's new defensive coordinator. Grinch is a significant upgrade on the coaching staff, but there is still much work to be done before Oklahoma's defense ranks amongst the stronger units in the country. T.J. Vasher is justifiably priced amongst the top wide receivers in what is expected to be the highest-scoring game on the DraftKings main slate. If Jerry Jeudy is too expensive to fit into a lineup, dropping down to T.J. Vasher for $1,000 less is a sharp pivot for any format of DFS contests this weekend.
ALSO VIABLE
- Jerry Jeudy, Alabama, $8,100
- Denzel Mims, Baylor, $6,800
- Deshaunte Jones, Iowa State, $5,100
- Branden Mack, Temple, $5,100
