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Tracking ADP Risers and Fallers is one way we can try to stay ahead of the field in Best Ball this offseason as we will have a better handle on ADP and where to find values as the news comes in. I will continue this process throughout the NFL offseason to help us in our Best Ball drafting leading up to the start of the season. In this report we can compare players ADP pre- Free Agency to post Free Agency as most of the Risers and Fallers are a result of landing spots by specific players.
The process in coming up with ADP Risers and Fallers is rather simple as in this example below I took ADP numbers from DRAFT on 3/19 and 4/2 and found the difference either +/-. The players who scored a lower ADP on 4/2 would be in the Risers category and the players who scored a higher ADP on 4/2 compared to 3/19 would be in the Fallers category.
Feel free to reach out to me on Twitter with any questions. Happy Drafting!
Top 10 ADP Risers
1. Isaiah Crowell RB +65.7 ADP -- Crowell is an easy one as the biggest riser as he signed with the Raiders in a backfield that has little depth right now.
2. Mike Davis RB +61.9 ADP -- With Jordan Howard being shipped off to Philadelphia, the Bears backfield is now down to two competitive backs and Davis looks to be slotted into the Howard role which produced 18 touchdowns over the past two seasons.
3. Ryan Fitzpatrick QB +30.1 ADP -- The Dolphins may be in tank mode but signing Fitzpatrick will keep them competitive on offense as he showed last year in Tampa Bay that he can make big plays down the field.
4. Donte Moncrief WR +30.0 ADP -- Moncrief is the new receiver in Pittsburgh and will compete with James Washington as the WR2.
5. Malcolm Brown RB +27.9 ADP -- Todd Gurley continues to have question marks and the path behind him on the depth chart is Malcolm Brown.
6. Kenny Stills WR +27.2 ADP -- With the addition to Fitzpatrick at QB, the Dolphins are suddenly relevant once again and everyone on the offense is getting a boast.
7. Devin Funchess WR +23.8 ADP -- The Colts spent some big money on Funchess for a 1-year prove it deal and with Andrew Luck throwing the ball Funchess is bound to improve upon his 2018 numbers.
8. DeVante Parker WR +23.5 ADP -- Just like Stills, Parker is going to benefit from the signing of Ryan Fitzpatrick.
9. Randall Cobb WR +20.2 ADP -- It will be interesting to see how much Cobb has left in the tank but the Cowboys gave him a 1-year contract and he will serve as the teams WR3.
10. Latavius Murray RB +20.0 ADP -- Murray continues to see a rise in ADP as the Mark Ingram role opposite of Alvin Kamara in New Orleans is one of the most relevant roles in the league.
Risers just missing the Top 10: Adrian Peterson +19.9, Jared Cook +18.8, DeSean Jackson +17.7, Geronimo Allison +17.2, Ronald Jones +16.1, Tyler Eifert +15.6
ADP Risers
| 3/8 | 3/19 | 4/2 | |||||
| Player | Team | Pos | ADP | ADP | ADP | Diff | |
| 1 | Isaiah Crowell | OAK | RB | 214.7 | 214.6 | 148.9 | 65.7 |
| 2 | Mike Davis | CHI | RB | 215.9 | 152.1 | 90.2 | 61.9 |
| 3 | Ryan Fitzpatrick | MIA | QB | 216.9 | 200.8 | 170.7 | 30.1 |
| 4 | Donte Moncrief | PIT | WR | 217.0 | 154.8 | 124.8 | 30.0 |
| 5 | Malcolm Brown | LA | RB | 217.0 | 217.0 | 189.1 | 27.9 |
| 6 | Kenny Stills | MIA | WR | 156.8 | 169.3 | 142.1 | 27.2 |
| 7 | Devin Funchess | IND | WR | 213.0 | 125.0 | 101.2 | 23.8 |
| 8 | DeVante Parker | MIA | WR | 214.3 | 190.6 | 167.1 | 23.5 |
| 9 | Randall Cobb | DAL | WR | 216.5 | 215.1 | 194.9 | 20.2 |
| 10 | Latavius Murray | NO | RB | 154.2 | 81.3 | 61.3 | 20.0 |
| 11 | Adrian Peterson | WAS | RB | 176.7 | 152.9 | 133.0 | 19.9 |
| 12 | Jared Cook | NO | TE | 86.6 | 88.6 | 69.8 | 18.8 |
| 13 | DeSean Jackson | PHI | WR | 164.3 | 118.8 | 101.1 | 17.7 |
| 14 | Geronimo Allison | GB | WR | 153.4 | 152.8 | 135.6 | 17.2 |
| 15 | Ronald Jones | TB | RB | 148.3 | 137.6 | 121.5 | 16.1 |
| 16 | Tyler Eifert | CIN | TE | 180.2 | 177.5 | 161.9 | 15.6 |
| 17 | Trey Quinn | WAS | WR | 215.9 | 210.0 | 196.8 | 13.2 |
| 18 | Jesse James | DET | TE | 216.2 | 174.1 | 161.0 | 13.1 |
| 19 | Matt LaCosse | NE | TE | 217.0 | 216.9 | 204.6 | 12.3 |
| 20 | Peyton Barber | TB | RB | 177.4 | 162.6 | 152.1 | 10.5 |
| 21 | Sammy Watkins | KC | WR | 79.4 | 75.5 | 65.3 | 10.2 |
| 22 | Jordan Howard | PHI | RB | 71.1 | 81.6 | 71.5 | 10.1 |
| 23 | Jack Doyle | IND | TE | 147.3 | 152.0 | 142.4 | 9.6 |
| 24 | Demarcus Robinson | KC | WR | 217.0 | 216.1 | 207.0 | 9.1 |
| 25 | Phillip Dorsett | NE | WR | 217.0 | 212.9 | 203.9 | 9.0 |
| 26 | Delanie Walker | TEN | TE | 140.1 | 141.6 | 132.7 | 8.9 |
| 27 | Jamaal Williams | GB | RB | 152.2 | 150.5 | 141.9 | 8.6 |
| 28 | Carlos Hyde | KC | RB | 181.6 | 93.1 | 84.7 | 8.4 |
| 29 | Vance McDonald | PIT | TE | 102.3 | 83.6 | 75.3 | 8.3 |
| 30 | Austin Hooper | ATL | TE | 99.3 | 103.2 | 96.0 | 7.2 |
Now let's dive into some of the ADP Fallers over the past 2 weeks. A lot of the names on this list are in regards to free agents not being signed yet or others that were directly effected by others signing.
Top 10 ADP FALLERS
1. Rob Gronkowski TE -116.6 ADP -- Gronkowski finally announced his retirement after rumors of it have been surfacing over the past two seasons.
2. TJ Yeldon RB -43.1ADP -- This one is a surprising no signing in FA. Yeldon looked to be a nice running back on paper but with no bites in free agency it makes you think there might be more to the story on him not receiving a contract.
3. CJ Anderson RB -41.0 ADP -- Now with the Lions signing him we will see Anderson's ADP start to slowly go in the other direction.
4. Gus Edwards RB -37.7 ADP -- The Mark Ingram news has shook up the entire Ravens backfield as far as ADP goes. Giving Ingram big money makes for alot of question marks for Edwards and Dixon behind him now in Baltimore.
5. Zay Jones WR -28.4 ADP -- John Brown and Cole Beasley news continue to lower the ADP on both Zay Jones and Robert Foster.
6. Robert Foster WR -23.6 ADP -- Foster might lose some snaps now with the crowded WR corps in Buffalo but he could still have some appeal in the late rounds.
7. Antonio Callaway WR -22.4 ADP -- The Browns are now crowded with talent on offense and Callaway is now buried on the depth chart.
8. Jerick McKinnon RB -19.6 ADP -- The 49ers backfield is crowded right now and with McKinnon still recovering from his ACL injury the risk is too great right now to take a high draft pick on him.
9. Jay Ajayi RB -17.3 ADP -- As of today, Ajayi remains unsigned and if that remains the case going forward his ADP will continue to take a dip.
10. Doug Baldwin WR -16.4 ADP -- The news of Baldwin being banged up and require additional surgeries has people scared off at the moment.
Fallers that just missed the Top 10: Tyreek Hill -12.3, Adam Humphries -11.4, Elijah McGuire -11.4, James Washington -10.3, Kenneth Dixon -10.3, Chris Warren -9.2, Joe Flacco -8.8
ADP Fallers
| 3/8 | 3/19 | 4/2 | |||||
| Player | Team | Pos | ADP | ADP | ADP | Diff | |
| 1 | Rob Gronkowski | TE | 97.1 | 96.5 | 213.1 | -116.6 | |
| 2 | TJ Yeldon | RB | 141.7 | 153.2 | 196.3 | -43.1 | |
| 3 | CJ Anderson | DET | RB | 124.2 | 134.0 | 175.0 | -41.0 |
| 4 | Gus Edwards | BAL | RB | 96.1 | 130.3 | 168.0 | -37.7 |
| 5 | Zay Jones | BUF | WR | 116.6 | 137.5 | 165.9 | -28.4 |
| 6 | Robert Foster | BUF | WR | 142.7 | 171.9 | 195.5 | -23.6 |
| 7 | Antonio Callaway | CLE | WR | 124.5 | 153.1 | 175.5 | -22.4 |
| 8 | Jerick McKinnon | SF | RB | 45.0 | 60.8 | 80.4 | -19.6 |
| 9 | Jay Ajayi | RB | 140.2 | 153.8 | 171.1 | -17.3 | |
| 10 | Doug Baldwin | SEA | WR | 67.2 | 73.7 | 90.1 | -16.4 |
| 11 | Tyreek Hill | KC | WR | 8.9 | 16.1 | 28.4 | -12.3 |
| 12 | Adam Humphries | TEN | WR | 144.2 | 139.5 | 150.9 | -11.4 |
| 13 | Elijah McGuire | NYJ | RB | 140.8 | 192.9 | 204.3 | -11.4 |
| 14 | James Washington | PIT | WR | 93.2 | 96.3 | 106.6 | -10.3 |
| 15 | Kenneth Dixon | BAL | RB | 151.4 | 199.8 | 210.1 | -10.3 |
| 16 | Chris Warren | OAK | RB | 206.7 | 201.9 | 211.1 | -9.2 |
| 17 | Joe Flacco | DEN | QB | 198.8 | 195.1 | 203.9 | -8.8 |
| 18 | Josh Adams | PHI | RB | 208.2 | 206.8 | 215.6 | -8.8 |
| 19 | Quincy Enunwa | NYJ | WR | 171.9 | 189.6 | 198.3 | -8.7 |
| 20 | Marquise Goodwin | SF | WR | 132.8 | 136.8 | 145.0 | -8.2 |
| 21 | Michael Gallup | DAL | WR | 125.3 | 133.0 | 141.1 | -8.1 |
| 22 | Andy Dalton | CIN | QB | 167.7 | 179.7 | 187.7 | -8.0 |
| 23 | Nick Foles | JAC | QB | 168.9 | 166.6 | 174.2 | -7.6 |
| 24 | Spencer Ware | RB | 173.8 | 207.9 | 215.0 | -7.1 | |
| 25 | Kareem Hunt | CLE | RB | 82.1 | 83.1 | 89.4 | -6.3 |
| 26 | Emmanuel Sanders | DEN | WR | 77.6 | 85.9 | 91.8 | -5.9 |
| 27 | David Njoku | CLE | TE | 66.4 | 68.7 | 73.9 | -5.2 |
| 28 | Robby Anderson | NYJ | WR | 77.1 | 78.7 | 83.9 | -5.2 |
| 29 | Dede Westbrook | JAC | WR | 112.8 | 111.1 | 116.3 | -5.2 |
| 30 | Jaylen Samuels | PIT | RB | 87.8 | 87.5 | 92.6 | -5.1 |
