When trying to come up with your auction strategy for this year, there are a lot of things to consider, but many of those considerations don’t have concrete answers. Unlike serpentine drafting, auctions are far from an exact science. As a result, you can’t ever know exactly what’s going to happen when the draft starts. The order in which players are nominated by your league-mates won’t follow any pre-planned draft course you can count on because it’s highly likely they don’t even know who they’ll nominate before it’s their turn. So much of what determines the value of a player flows from that very unpredictable starting point, and thus, you must be ready to execute your plan while knowing that it won’t always go perfectly.
So what can you anticipate in your auction to help you come up with your strategy? That varies from year to year, so trying to predict it is part of what makes you a good, mediocre, or poor auction drafter. Here are a few things to consider:
- What does your league typically do? Do they slough off quarterback until late? Or are they excited about Patrick Mahomes II and Deshaun Watson and will go after them aggressively? This is a big one. Quarterback prices will determine a lot about what you can do in a draft.
- What is the current overall fantasy football climate? Are owners excited about running backs, receivers, top tight ends? There are no exact answers here, but Average Draft Position gives you some clues, as do Average Auction Values the closer you get to the end of draft season.
- How flexible is your starting lineup? How flexible are the overall roster requirements? If you have maximum flexibility in your lineup then you can let others go after certain players and you aren’t forced into any corners you don’t want to be in.
The answers to these questions in 2019 should lead you in one direction in particular. It’s clear that running backs are king again this year, and you should be prepared to exploit this. Obviously, you can go into a draft and have a “top running back” mentality no matter the cost. But that path is fairly easily defined, and also quite common. In that situation, you’ll be mining for wide receiver value late while spending almost nothing on quarterback and tight end. There is nothing wrong with that strategy, but fantasy football is about becoming as risk-proof as possible while still possessing the requisite upside to win on a weekly basis. Putting all your money into two top running backs isn’t necessarily faulty, but it makes your roster more volatile and more dependent on those couple players. Just ask the David Johnson or LeVeon Bell owners from last year if you want to hear what that’s like. With the strategy outlined below, you can take advantage of the current running back craze and compile four or five top players at other positions and spread out your risk while still giving your lineup plenty of punch.
DOES YOUR LEAGUE LIKE QUARTERBACKS?
One beginner tendency in auctions is to get excited for quarterbacks. This is not just an auction propensity either. Beginners pay attention to all kinds of things that have nothing to do with fantasy football and you can take advantage of that. In 2019 this is led by Patrick Mahomes II who threw for fifty touchdowns in 2018. Beginners in auctions and snake drafts both will chase Mahomes and his 8.6% touchdown rate and overpay for him. To a lesser extent, Deshaun Watson and Aaron Rodgers will command higher prices as well. Even the Kyler Murray hype train has taken off and will likely infect average auction drafters come draft day. Keep in mind that the psychology of the novice drafter is built on emotion and little hard data. They’ll chase players that excite them, and Murray is a great example. It's also very possible that quarterbacks with name recognition like Drew Brees and Tom Brady will still command top dollar, and if so, that’s something you must exploit.
Your job in preparing for your draft this year is trying to figure out whether or not quarterback nominations are going to pull the dollars that you think they will. If so then you’ve already defined one part of your strategy. You can nominate top quarterbacks at the start of the draft and let people spend freely on them. On your own auction sheet, you are able to pencil in a low number for your quarterback slot and shift that money to other positions. Then all it takes is waiting on the right price to present itself for a quarterback you like and things become very simple for you.
However, when drafters get savvier, the obvious depth at the position will cause them to hang back when quarterbacks are nominated and they will be cheaper. There is a direct correlation in an auction in the price of quarterbacks when compared with the experience of the draft room. No rule is foolproof, but as auctions go, this is one of the more reliable outcomes you can count on. If you’re analyzing your room that should be the chief component in determining what money will go to quarterbacks. If you know the room will not pay for the position it will likely be the more optimal strategy to pay a little for a quarterback and secure a top option at the position thereby gaining you a positional advantage for a relatively low investment.
The easiest way to determine how this will go would be to look at prior years’ drafts, but if that isn’t possible, you’ll have to make that call based on who is going to be in the room that you know. For purposes of this strategy, assume that top-level quarterbacks are going to be too expensive and you’ll be able to craft your strategy around a cheap quarterback number.
WHAT IS THE CURRENT FANTASY CLIMATE
As is the case with quarterback strategy, most often the optimal approach to employ in any auction is to be doing the opposite of what others are doing. Following the herd is rarely going to give you much of an edge. Anticipate what others will do and use that to craft the best strategy.
In 2019 there is no doubt about it: the fantasy community is wild about running backs. This article is not here to discuss the advantages of having the top running backs versus the top receivers, tight ends, and quarterbacks, but it’s necessary to have a quick word. There is ample evidence that having the top running backs, do indeed, provide a bigger positional advantage than other top options at the other positions. Naturally, the top four running backs this year are going to demand huge prices in drafts. But even beyond those four the position commands money down through at least current RB7 James Conner. Those 7 players by themselves will be extremely high price points as compared to the raw dollars being spent on other positions.
What can you do about that? You can be prepared to pay up and own one or two of them. That is a perfectly reasonable auction strategy. Or you can zig when others zag and load up at other positions. This article argues strongly that the advantage in auctions is that you are able to load up with top talent at other positions when that talent would not otherwise be available in a serpentine format. Follow two different possible paths for a moment.
The first path would be taking 2 top running backs and looking for value at wide receiver later in the draft. The second path would be taking three top wide receivers and trying to maximize dollars spent at tight end OR quarterback with whatever is left over after getting one solid running back.
Draft Path 1
In the first path, you are guaranteed to spend at least half of your salary cap, if not more, on two top running backs. If you decide this year you’ll nab two from the top tier of Saquon Barkley, Ezekiel Elliot, Christian McCaffrey, and Alvin Kamara you might even spend closer to 60-65% of your total available money. At that point, you are in a somewhat difficult position. Even the best analysts in the business aren’t going to hit on all their lower-tier wide receivers, tight ends, and quarterbacks when they attempt to fill their rosters with all lower-priced players. Even if your analysis is correct, things like injuries to your player, injuries to the starting quarterback, and a myriad of other unlucky things can prevent you from making hay with the back-of-draft selections. Last year, names such as Jamison Crowder, Allen Hurns, Nelson Agholor, Marquise Goodwin, Chris Hogan, Devin Funchess, Kenny Stills, and Corey Davis were all late-round auction “values” in drafts. There was a lot of buzz around most of these names, and it would’ve been totally reasonable in 2018 to leave a draft with a wide receiver corps sporting two or three of these names with the theory that one or two of them can be counted on as a starter. In fact, none of them were remotely interesting for fantasy purposes last year. This is not to say that there weren’t other wide receivers that could be taken late that DID turn out ok, but the point is simple: In an auction you can hamstring yourself by demanding that you hit on four or five late-round choices when the hit rate will be very low for those type of flyers. So, if you are crushing the running back slot you will have a higher number of players that you need to outperform their draft-day price. You may hit on one, or even a few, but it raises the difficulty level. It can be done, but it requires you being a high-level player analyst, some luck, and hitting the waiver wire hard if you don’t hit on some of those players.
Draft Path 2
Path 2 takes out some of the risks, while arguably providing a greater chance to place more top talent on your team that wouldn’t be possible in a serpentine draft, or a running back heavy strategy. This draft path feeds directly off the running back heavy strategy currently being employed by average drafters. It’s something akin to a zero-running back strategy but allows you to have a much stronger RB1. The recent trend toward running back spending has seen them sneaking into the $60 range in many instances, and this year it’s possible that in your auction you’ll see four running backs commanding a $55-$65 price tag (assuming a $200 salary cap).
The odd thing is that the top wide receivers are going for significantly less money. Part of this can be explained by the prevailing evidence of the positional edge gained from a top running back over a replacement versus a top wide receiver over a replacement. But what about that positional advantage times two? Times three? What if you have that advantage three times over, plus you gain an advantage at quarterback or tight end? If you can grab three top wide receivers, you’ll still have money to grab a very solid running back starter while also getting a top option at *either* quarterback *or* tight end. This isn’t to say that you’ll leave the draft with DeAndre Hopkins, Julio Jones, and Davante Adams. But instead of two running backs from the top 15, you could very easily nab four wide receivers from the top 15 or 20. Down below you’ll be able to see the difference in roster possibilities, but once you have three or four good to great wide receivers and a running back you like, you’ll often find yourself with some extra money to burn. That means you attack a top tight end or quarterback. And if you’re employing the strategy from up above and spending nothing on a quarterback, it’s eminently possible to leave a draft this year with three excellent wide receivers, a solid running back, and Travis Kelce, Zach Ertz, or George Kittle. This is simply not possible in a serpentine draft because you don’t get five second- and third-round picks. Some players to execute that strategy with are discussed in the second and final part of this draft strategy breakdown.
HOW FLEXIBLE IS YOUR LEAGUE?
This question applies both to your ability to carry what you want on your roster, and to what you are allowed to start in your starting lineup. If you have multiple flex positions, the strategy outlined above gets even more valuable. But even assuming a common lineup of 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 Flex, 1 TE/K/DEF, you are still in a great position to dominate the draft. The main thing to remember is that as the flexibility in your league goes up, so does your auction strategy. You don’t have to be forced into overpaying for certain positions (running back this year) if you can massage your roster and lineup how you want. The more flexible your league is the more of an advantage you - an extremely prepared and savvy auction drafter - can gain.
Certainly, the strategies and thoughts laid out here buck the current trend in fantasy football of locking down top running backs for your team at all costs. But in 2019 it’s not about being part of the herd of lemmings rushing towards the running back cliff. Instead, swerve out of the pack and put this strategy in play to get as many difference makers on your team as possible. Check out the second and final part of this auction strategy breakdown for specific players and player combinations that you can shoot for in your own draft. Don't ever forget – you will have the chance in every auction you are in to score a loaded lineup that you could never put together in a serpentine draft. You must anticipate, prepare, and break out of the pack, but if you do it is there for the taking.
