With the NFL Combine complete and many Pro Days already in the books, the Footballguys staff got together to answer key questions about the skill positions in the 2018 rookie class:
Quarterbacks at the combine
Is there anything to glean from the NFL Combine with the quarterbacks? What are your thoughts on Sam Darnold not throwing?
Daniel Simpkins: While I realize throwing in a relaxed environment is vastly different from throwing in game action, I enjoyed seeing the types of throws that some of these passers are capable of making. Josh Rosen’s deep ball was usually on the mark to the point that the receiver did not have to break stride to make the catch. Lamar Jackson also showcased his abilities as a passer, which should help to put the silly positional move to receiver talk to bed. While I’m somewhat disappointed that Darnold didn’t opt to throw, I doubt it changed his standing with teams. I like to see guys compete unless there is a clear injury situation that prevents it. Yet there is enough hunger to find a franchise quarterback and enough tape of Darnold that a team will want to invest early in the first round, regardless of his decision not to throw at the Combine.
Jeff Tefertiller: The NFL has seen hundreds of Darnold passes and his throwing at the Combine should be of no concern. At the Combine, a few of the top Quarterbacks struggled with either inconsistency (Allen) or tightness (Jackson) so Darnold played it safe.
Devin Knotts: Quarterbacks in the combine are not really that valuable outside of the interviews which we as the casual fan don't get to see. Sam Darnold not throwing at the combine is probably a smart move as he is slowly becoming the consensus number one pick in the draft so the only thing he could do is hurt his stock if he were to throw. Throwing at his Pro Day which by all accounts was a success in the rain is all that he needed to do. I fully expect Darnold to be taken at 1.01 and be the future of the Cleveland Browns.
Chad Parsons: The most appealing part of quarterbacks throwing at the NFL Combine (or the Senior Bowl, etc) is getting back-to-back reps from the prospects on the same routes and with the same receivers. The Senior Bowl was highly informative about Josh Allen and Baker Mayfield in this regard. If I was a quarterback prospect (or an agent of one), I would throw at the Combine for the simple reason of providing another opportunity during the process. Like a prospect not running the 40-yard dash, saying no to the Combine eliminates one of your shots to perform well. Ace your Pro Day and the Combine will be forgotten anyway.
ronald jones' injury
There was not much movement at the top of the running back board in terms of NFL Combine expectations and their ultimate performance. However, Ronald Jones pulled up midway through his 40-yard dash en route to a mid-4.6s run. How is Jones shaping up as a target or avoid player with a mid-Round 1 rookie draft ADP as we approach the NFL Draft? If he does not workout during the draft process does that matter to you?
Daniel Simpkins: I’m fine with Jones as a mid-round one rookie pick in PPR leagues and believe that’s about the right spot for him. From a skills standpoint, I really like Jones. A slashing, dynamic runner, he’s the closest back to Jamal Charles that I’ve seen. With a little added weight and some work with a position coach on some of the nuances of being a better receiving back, I believe Jones will be just fine. I’ve seen enough of his tape to be confident in his abilities if he does elect to heal the hamstring and not work out at all during this Draft process.
Jeff Tefertiller: I like Jones more than most and his 40 time at the Combine was not a concern. Another minor injury is more concerning.
Devin Knotts: Ronald Jones was a player who I was avoiding prior to his 40 time and whatever your stance was prior to the 40 time should continue to be your stance as he did pull up with an injury during the run. However, the big concern is why he didn't run the 40 during his Pro Day which is alarming. As someone who has not shown an ability to catch the ball in college and is not showing off great speed I am avoiding Jones in the mid-Round 1 of rookie drafts and will let others take that chance.
Chad Parsons: I was out on Ronald Jones before the Combine as he needed to run really well to get back on my radar with his likely dynasty startup and rookie draft cost. Even without the injury, I highly doubt Jones was running faster than 4.50, which is a concerning time for a back of his size and lack of track record as a receiver (Stephen Carr as a freshman in 2017 lapped Jones in receiving game involvement at USC for example).
RUNNING BACK SLEEPERS
There were plenty of big running backs who performed at or above their projections at the NFL Combine, especially with quality 3-cone times. Which of likely late Day 2 or into Day 3 options strike you as intriguing NFL prospects?
Daniel Simpkins: I’ve sounded like a broken record this offseason in my praise of Kalen Ballage, including a gushing session about him in our last roundtable. That said, I’ll spare you and instead point out another guy who could have NFL success and who will be in the day two or day three Draft mix. He’s someone that I took a closer look at recently on the recommendation of Matt Waldman and liked more than I thought I would. The player is Justin Jackson of Northwestern. It was nice to see him add weight before the Combine and come in at just below 200 pounds. His agility, flexibility, and ability to string moves together to make defenders miss is intriguing. His lack of blazing speed will be off-putting to some; but Jackson has the patience, vision, and press and cut abilities that are more important traits for a successful NFL runner. I’m excited about watching his journey.
Jeff Tefertiller: Rashaad Penny was a productive collegian and should be a solid NFL player. Even though the "draft community" loves Penny, he should be a third or fourth-round pick and undervalued in fantasy.
Devin Knotts: Kalen Ballage is really intriguing as at 6'3'' 230 pounds he ran a 4.46 40 time. The key for Ballage is which team is going to take him as his skill set is more beneficial for a pass heavy team as he is a good receiver. He is not a true NFL running back who will see 15-20 touches per game, but he could be put into a position such as a Marcel Reece who was tremendous in PPR formats for several seasons.
Chad Parsons: Not a part of the NFL Combine, but Josh Adams had a strong Pro Day performance to get back on the radar as a two-way producer at Notre Dame. Bo Scarbrough, considering his rookie ADP in the 25-35 range, is appealing from a size-movement standpoint despite his injuries and lack of workload at Alabama. Jarvion Franklin ran well enough to be on the late radar at 239 pounds and elite rushing and receiving production at Western Michigan.
WIDE RECEIVER athletic risers
From D.J. Moore to D.J. Chark to Equanimeous St. Brown, there were a number of quality workouts among wide receivers at the NFL Combine. Did any of them move significantly on your board based on confirming (or exceeding) their athletic standing?
Daniel Simpkins: D.J. Moore has been gaining ground for me over the past few weeks, but not because of anything he did at the Combine. For me, it’s been that I’ve finally had time to watch his tape and see a receiver that needs more work in terms of route running, but who has the raw tools to be something special. Chark and St. Brown haven’t been gaining ground with me because I feel they both have serious flaws that aren’t going to make them as appealing for fantasy in the long-term. When it comes to St. Brown, I see a wideout who has quality measurables, but doesn’t have that “my ball mentality” that he needs to possess. As that is how I see him winning in the NFL, that’s a really big problem. As for Chark, I believe he relies too much on his speed to win routes - something that will have its moments, but will not consistently work against NFL corners. In terms of fantasy impact, think a lesser version of Ted Ginn Jr.
Jeff Tefertiller: Moore and St. Brown played similarly to their testing numbers. It was Chark who surprised me but I am left wondering if he will be workout wonder. I like him as a distant third to the other two.
Devin Knotts: D.J. Chark is a player who I had overlooked before his 4.34 40-yard dash time. at 6'3'' he's a player who if he would have had better quarterbacks around him at LSU could have posted much better numbers than what he did at LSU. This 40 time caused me to go back and look at the film and realize that he is not only a burner but has Sammy Watkins tendencies to him where he is excellent in adjusting to the ball and winning the 50/50 balls.
Chad Parsons: I have grown very skeptical of the boom-bust receiver profile in recent years.Testing well without at least average production in college is tempting to bet on in dynasty, but in essence we are saying 'hey, this big time athlete did not produce in college, but wait until the NFL when they turn it on'. I am more willing to bet on the boom-bust profile at running back than wide receiver. On the metric side, a higher athleticism score merely boosts the 'boom' range of outcomes, while the bust zone remains the same (and far more likely) outcome. For D.J. Moore, the biggest issue I have is price. If he costs a mid-Round 1 rookie pick, that's too rich for me. If a late 1st, I am good with that. Chark is the classic boom-bust profile. Equanimeous St.Brown I can get on board with if a late 2nd or early 3rd rookie pick, but he likely is not a clear target player compared to higher pedigree quarterbacks, tight ends, and select running backs in that zone.
WIDE RECEIVER disappointments
On the flip side of wide receivers were Auden Tate, Simmie Cobbs, and James Washington to some degree underwhelming their pre-Combine expectations. Of the ho-hum workouts at wide receiver, which are your strong positive or negative thoughts exiting Combine week?
Daniel Simpkins: I’m not downgrading any of these three for their Combine performances, but I was never high on Simmie Cobbs or Auden Tate to begin with. Cobbs is a train wreck against press coverage, looks like he’s stuck running in butter on film, and struggles to separate from defenders for these two reasons. Tate at least has the size to be a red zone threat, but also has issues with handling press corners and doesn’t play at an NFL speed. James Washington is still my #2 receiver in this class because of his relatively high ceiling and low floor compared to rest of the bunch. His ability to track the ball and win vertically will make him a quarterback’s best friend at the next level.
Devin Knotts: Simmie Cobbs is the one that I wanted to fall in love with as he has absolutely torched tough competition mainly against Ohio State where seemingly every ball was thrown at Denzel Ward and Cobbs made the play. However, he underwhelmed the rest of the season after this game and running a 4.65 and 4.68 on back to back 40-yard dashes has him fall almost off of my radar for this upcoming season. For a lot of receivers there is a cliff where you have to be fast enough to play in the NFL and at close to a 4.7 this may simply be too slow.
Chad Parsons: Auden Tate went on to bomb his Pro Day as well. I am out on him as well as Cobbs. I like Washington in the late Round 1 rookie draft zone as his production far exceeds Tate and Cobbs (plus Washington's workout was better). Calvin Ridley's workout was lackluster as well and if he goes mid-Round 1 by the NFL, I am sure he will be an avoid player on my board compared to his rookie ADP.
mike gesicki reaction
Mike Gesicki is the name in bright lights at tight end after his blistering performance across the board. Where was he within the positional rankings before the NFL Combine and where does he stand now? What's the highest and lowest you can see him going in the NFL Draft?
Daniel Simpkins: I had Gesicki as my third best tight end behind Dallas Goedert and Mark Andrews and he remains there in my rankings after the Combine. At the Senior Bowl, I was very impressed with how he got open so often and won contested catches. My biggest concern with Gesicki is his need to refine his blocking. This could keep him off the field initially with certain coaching staffs who are more conservative. We’ll hope he lands with a staff that will utilize him where he wins initially instead of waiting for him to becoming a better blocker before allowing him to see action. I see middle round two being the highest Gesicki goes and early round three as being the lowest Gesicki is allowed to slide in the Draft.
Stephen Holloway: Gesicki’s athleticism is off the charts for a tight end. During high school, he played basketball and volleyball in addition to being the record holder for most tight end receptions, catching 103 passes. He also holds that record at Penn State with 129 receptions.
Rookie tight end production is much more likely now than it has been in the past as teams are featuring two tight end sets more frequently and also using athletic tight ends split out wide and in the slot.
Since 1960, only nine rookie tight ends have caught 50 or more passes, but four of those have played in the last ten seasons. Evan Engram caught 64 last year, the third most since 1960.
Mike Gesicki has better athleticism and similar college production as Engram. His future is indeed bright.
Jeff Tefertiller: Gesicki will be a Top 50 pick and I can see him jumping into the bottom of the first round. While he tested through the roof, my worry is that his lack of physicality may prohibit a top-end NFL and fantasy career.
Devin Knotts: Mike Gesicki is the hot name going into the NFL Draft at tight end as he should be. The biggest question will be why he didn't show the athletic ability in college as he often looked slow out of cuts, unable to break tackles, and suffered from drops at times in collee. I don't see him going before the 3rd round even with the combine he had and he could fall as late as the fourth round.
Chad Parsons: I think Gesicki has the best chance of any tight end to go in Round 1. However, I do not think any tight end ultimately goes in the top-32. Instead, I expect to see two or three tight ends in Round 2. Gesicki's overt athleticism is not present on tape and he is more of a build-up and long-striding route runner. I like Dallas Goedert's and Mark Andrews' overall games more than Gesicki. To finish the question, I think the lowest Gesicki goes is early Round 3.
