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With the Super Bowl in the rearview mirror, 2018 NFL Draft season is in full swing. Outside of the NFL Draft itself, the NFL Combine is the biggest landmark on the prospect calendar at the end of February. The Footballguys staff got together to answer key questions about the skill positions in advance of the NFL Combine:
Crowded Quarterback Class
The 2018 quarterback class is loaded at the top with five prospects commonly mocked in (or near) Round 1 of the NFL Draft. Between Sam Darnold, Josh Rosen, Josh Allen, Baker Mayfield, and Lamar Jackson, what is your strongest call with two months to go in the process? Who are you overly high or low on to be an impact NFL option?
Jason Wood: I'm not sure this is as good a class as some are making it out to be, but that's because I have serious doubts about Allen, Mayfield, and Jackson as NFL starters. Darnold and Rosen were maddeningly inconsistent in their final college years, but they still played in pro-style systems with the requisite measurable and experience in big conferences to suggest they're worth making a push for on draft day. It all comes down to where they land, of course, but I would give both Rosen and Darnold better than average chances at being long-time NFL starters.
In the cases of the other three, I dislike each of them for unique reasons. Allen is the most baffling to me, because he appears to be in the hunt for the 1st overall pick according to many pundits. What I see in Allen is a physical prototype with...not much else. Show me a college quarterback with his completion rate who turns into a successful pro. I'll wait. Now show me a quarterback with that low completion rate, from a tiny school, with a relatively few games started. The only thing Allen has going for his is physical potential, and that rarely is the thing to bet your franchise on.
Mayfield is troubling for other reasons. He's got the big game experience and the statistics but lacks the physical tools and pro-style tutelage. I see Mayfield as Johnny Manziel with less athleticism but slightly better off-field judgment. He shouldn't be a first rounder, based on what I've seen.
I should note before discussing Jackson that Louisville is my favorite college football team. You would think that might make me a homer, but if anything it makes me dislike Jackson as a pro prospect even more. I've seen almost every snap of Jackson's career and he's just not a good enough passer. I think anyone making the Jackson = DeShaun Watson comparison is lazy and, frankly, a bit racially biased. Yes, they're both athletic, black quarterbacks but that's about where the comparisons end.
Daniel Simpkins: I feel Lamar Jackson has the highest ceiling of any of these quarterbacks. While many have suggested he needs to convert to receiver, I think his progression as a college quarterback from last year to this year suggests he can make the leap to the NFL. I detail specific skills and traits in a rookie piece that will debut soon at Footballguys, so I’ll save that for now. I will just say I see more similarities between Jackson and Michael Vick than I do between Jackson and Terrelle Pryor.
Dave Larkin: I've had the chance to watch these passers over the last few weeks, and the player who stands out the most is Baker Mayfield. I realise that so-called Big Draft will hit him with the usual criticism surrounding his lack of ideal measurables, but Mayfield is a clinical operator. A magician in the pocket, he goes through his reads and adjusts his feet accordingly with ease. His arm talent is ridiculous; he can make difficult throws seem routine, even if they are off platform. I believe Mayfield could step in immediately for an NFL team with a solid offensive line and decent stable of pass catchers and provide a Deshaun Watson-esque impact.
The player I am lowest on (and I haven't watched every game of every quarterback yet) is Sam Darnold. This has to be taken with a pinch of salt, as he is still so young to even be considered as an NFL starter, but he lacks that bit of composure that is crucial in the NFL. His feet are too frenetic in the pocket, and he often commits the cardinal sin of retreating from pressure in the pocket by backpedalling rather than stepping up.
Chad Parsons: Baker Mayfield is the glaring name I am opposite of consensus. Most mock drafts and rankings I see have Mayfield as QB3 or lower. In terms of being a quality NFL starter and holding a job (no easy task for even top-half Round 1 NFL Draft picks) for a few seasons, Mayfield elicits the most comfort on my board. Mayfield is hyper-accurate and a story I will reference often over the years is how he approached every rep of the Senior Bowl. Even on routine repetitions, Mayfield was looking off imaginary safeties and whipping his head to the target the last instant to locate and deliver an accurate pass. Compare that to the other quarterbacks staring down their targets and being less accurate despite locking on throughout the route. Mayfield had a contagious urgency throughout the week and built consistent chemistry with his new teammates. I would be shocked if Mayfield is an NFL bust.
Running Backs: Size = Success?
With running back prospects, how sensitive to size are you? If a prospect is, say, 200 pounds compared 210 or 220 pounds is their value lower due to workload concerns in the NFL? When evaluating backs on different ends of the size spectrum, do you look for different qualities to be successful in the NFL?
Jason Wood:Size doesn't matter. Well, that's not true. But 200 pounds versus 210 pounds doesn't matter. 180 pounds matters. 165 pounds matters. 250 pounds (for a running back matters). But 200-220 pounds is perfectly reasonable for a successful, modern pro prospect.
Dalvin Cook was listed at 210 lbs. Christian McCaffrey was 202 lbs. Alvin Kamara is 214 lbs. Kareem Hunt is 216 lbs. Looking at this year's top running backs, Todd Gurley is big (6'1", 226 lbs.) as is Le'Veon Bell (6'2", 230 lbs.), but Hunt finished 3rd in yards. LeSean McCoy (5'10", 215 lbs.), Melvin Gordon (6'1", 207 lbs.), Kamara, and Mark Ingram (5'10", 215 lbs.) round out the top seven.
Jeff Tefertiller: Size for a running back is so unique. Many were criticizing Maurice Jones-Drew for being a little over 200 lbs coming out of UCLA ... but he was only 5'6". My concerns usually are due to a back being over 240 lbs or over 6'2". Not many backs have been successful over those two thresholds.
Daniel Simpkins: It depends on the league I’m playing in. In non-PPR formats, I lean towards bigger backs, as this trait tends to translate to how well they can hold up to a full-time load and carry between the tackles. In PPR formats, I’m more open to guys like Christian McCaffrey who are smaller, but whose pass catching abilities will make up for their warts elsewhere.
Dave Larkin: I think it is convenient as analysts to be able to put players in boxes - power back, speed back, glider - but the way the NFL has embraced the passing game to a greater extent means we have seen the traditional measurables for running backs change. I am a lot less sensitive to size than I used to be. The league is changing how it uses backs, and with less offseason preparation on tackling and the basic skills for defenses, we are seeing 'mighty mites' excel. Of course these players need a baseline level of talent, but the right offensive coordinator can get the best out of any RB.
As far as what marks out backs for success:
* For big backs, I like to see the ability to win collisions and make yardage where it seemed there was none to begin with. Pass protection is crucial for these backs, as their viability on third down is paramount to their fantasy relevance.
* For smaller backs, the ability to win in tight spaces and show the willingness to run between the tackles are key traits. Pass protection, while not unimportant, is less of a factor for these backs.
Chad Parsons: I am more sensitive to size than most for running back prospects.If dealing with a back of sub-200 pounds for example, I need to see a very willing interior runner in terms of toughness. They need to be elite receivers by my projection model metrics in college. They need to be quality athletes for their size. Bigger running backs (220+ pounds and especially 230+ pounds) are easier to project to big workloads in the NFL. Also, the thresholds are lower to be quality athletes and receivers. My favorite subset of running back prospects is the big back who can move well enough and catch. As an example of how weigh impacts NFL Draft projections, 30% of sub-200 pound running back prospects were Day 2 or higher picks since 1999 whereas 56% of 230+ pound backs. It is a smooth decline in the weight zones between the two extremes.
Running Back Sleepers
Beyond the typical top names, who is one of your early deeper names at running back you like? Where do you expect them to go in the NFL Draft and why are they underrated?
Jason Wood: In an NFL where Tarik Cohen can instantly carve out a major role, I love what a creative team could do with Martez Carter from Grambling. Carter reminds me of Cohen in a lot of way, but is a bit bigger. I think Carter could be a feature back in a pass-happy offense, but could have value as a RB2 in PPR formats much in the way Christian McCaffrey was used by the Panthers.
I'll also call your attention to Ralph Webb out of Vanderbilt. Webb didn't have a great showing at the East-West Shrine Game which means he'll probably fall to the late rounds, but he was highly productive in the SEC last year and runs with purpose and good balance, especially for a back weighing in around 200 lbs.
Jeff Tefertiller: I do not consider him a common name at the top of most rankings so I am including Mark Walton. Walton had an incredible 2016 season (1,357 total yards and 15 TDs on just 236 touches). I see him as a 3rd/4th round RB who could hit in a big way.
I agree with Jason on Hines. While he might be utilized like Tarik Cohen or Duke Johnson Jr, there is upside. He is a tough runner with blazing speed who will add returner value.
Daniel Simpkins: Again, I’m going to save the really detailed specifics for the piece I’m doing, but I’ve been really impressed with Kalen Ballage. For a bigger back, his ability to cut on a dime and burst upfield is quite good. I’ve also discovered after liking him at the Senior Bowl and digging deeper afterward that he’s a better pass catcher than I thought he was. I could see Ballage sneaking into late day two with a good Combine performance.
Dave Larkin: I'm a big fan of Tennessee's John Kelly, who runs with a level of reckless abandon I haven't seen in many backs in this class. In a talented group, Kelly's sweet feet, appetite for contact and his ability to survive first contact and power through impressed me. I expect Kelly to go in the 3rd round, although he could sneak into the 2nd. I think he is being pushed down the board because of the sheer talent level of this class as a whole.
Dan Hindery: John Kelly is one of the more intriguing Day 3 running back prospects. He’s a bit underrated because the offense at Tennessee was such a mess last season due to poor coaching, awful quarterback play and a weak offensive line. Kelly also doesn’t have that one elite trait that stands out. He’s slightly undersized and he doesn’t have top-end speed. However, he does everything well. Kelly can catch the ball out of the backfield, has surprising power and durability for a sub-210 pound back, and shows just enough speed that he can make some plays when he gets to the second level. He reminds me a bit of Mike Gillislee coming out of Florida. While Gillislee hasn’t had a great NFL career, he has been able to stick in the league to a second contract and put up solid fantasy numbers when given opportunities for a bigger workload. Kelly too will probably be drafted in the 4th or 5th round and enter the league as a backup. He may need an injury to get his chance in the lead role, but he has the well-rounded game to take an opportunity and run with it.
Chad Parsons: I will take this soapbox opportunity to highlight Chris Warren III (Texas). In the supersized category (240+ pounds), Warren has a chiseled build and declared for the draft with zero fanfare after merely flashing over four years (redshirt junior) with the Texas program. However, Warren has strong receiving chops, good feet, and strong pedigree dating back to his recruiting days. While few are ranking Warren even in their top-75 overall rookie rankings, Warren is firmly on my Round 3-4 watch list as an upside running back target.
Wide Receiver NFL Combine Riser
Every year there is a blazing 40-time or two which boosts a player up the draft board. Who is going to be a big NFL Combine riser at wide receiver?
Jason Wood: Nyheim Hines is a blazer, but was used as a running back at NC State this year after playing receiver in prior years. He'll be at the Combine and if he runs as fast as he's rumored to be, some GM in love with measurables will take a chance on him a round or two higher than his film warrants.
Christian Kirk (Texas A&M) and Dante Pettis (Washington) both seem like players who could drop stunning 40-times at the Combine, too, but it's not like either are far off the draft radar coming into the process.
Daniel Simpkins: I could see Christian Kirk being a riser due to posting a blazing speed. The combination of being athletic, a five-star recruit, and having a breakout season at age 18 will also be enticing factors.
Chad Parsons: I do not see a Will Fuller-type this year, who vaults themselves all the way to the top-25 of the NFL Draft with a blistering 40-time. However, in addition to the above names mentioned, I will add Darren Carrington (rSR out of Oregon and Utah). With prototypical size (6'3" and probably in 205-pound range), Carrington can challenge for the low-4.4s and be discussed more on Day 2 than he is early in the process.
Wide Receivers Lacking Production
In general, do you embrace a strong athlete at wide receiver who has not produced much in college? Is there a receiver prospect this year you see as a bigger impact in the NFL than college?
Jason Wood: Isn't Calvin Ridley the answer here? He's widely considered the top NFL draft prospect at his position, and a likely Top 10 overall draft choice. Yet, his statistics at Alabama weren't awe-inspiring. Ridley caught 63 passes for 967 yards and five touchdowns this season, but his athleticism, strength, and maturity are enough for draft evaluators to look past the box score and see an NFL-ready contributor.
Jeff Tefertiller: In general, I prefer to see good routes in college before jumping on a player's bandwagon. The size/speed/poor routes type is one I usually avoid. But, if the route-running is present, but the player was under-utilized in college, I am a buyer.
The two high-end prospects who should have better professional careers than 2017 seasons are Courtland Sutton and Calvin Ridley. Sutton had fewer receptions, yards, and touchdowns than teammate Trey Quinn. Ridley was a victim of the run-oriented Alabama offense.
Chad Parsons: I used to take the bait and love this boom-bust profile for wide receiver prospects. However, production to match physical traits is far more important than athletic traits alone at receiver compared to running back in my research. Even if the boom-bust profile (good athleticism, negative production score) hits in my model, it is typically short-lived and a sell moment more than turning into a long-term dynasty asset. Some notable 2018 wide receivers with a negative production score include Calvin Ridley, Deon Cain, Simmie Cobbs, D.J. Chark, Keke Coutee, and Marcell Ateman. To highlight one receiver with a low production score who consistently impressed with his route-running and separation skills at the Senior Bowl I will mention Daesean Hamilton. While I think Hamilton is destined for the slot and potentially a capped fantasy impact, Hamilton fits the criteria to be a better pro than his college career.
Daniel Simpkins: I’m willing to overlook lack of college production at any position. Quite frankly, some college coaching staffs don’t know how to best utilize the talent they have in their stable. Also, you sometimes have a more talented player stuck behind a big producer and they never get their chance in college. That being said, I feel Derrick Willies of Texas Tech could be the guy that didn’t produce in college, but has a shot to do better in the pros. A former Iowa Hawkeye who transferred to be closer to his father with health issues, Willies stands at 6’4”, 205 pounds. He’s just a tad thinner than I would like, but I think he can add some man weight. The athleticism is all over his tape, but if you need more evidence, check out this box jump he does from a sitting position. The downgrade from Patrick Mahomes to Nic Shimonek and McLane Carter hampered what could have been a breakthrough year for Willies. Don’t get me wrong— he’s still a long shot to be drafted, let alone get a true opportunity once he gets to his future squad. However, if things break right for him, I could see NFL success for him.
Dave Larkin: In general, I would eschew the athleticism part of the equation in favour of a player who is technically sound. Athleticism is a bonus, of course, and there is a requisite level you must reach to be a viable option at WR in the pros, but not the be-all-end-all it is made out to be. My sleeper this year is Dante Pettis of Washington, who is the most technically sound route runner I've seen in this class so far. He wins on his routes in different ways and always catches the ball cleanly with his hands.
Dan Hindery: In general, I don’t value wide receivers who didn’t produce in college. It takes more than size and speed to excel at the position and it is rare to see guys who couldn’t produce against college cornerbacks develop into difference-makers at the NFL level.
The one potential exception is players who flashed in college but simply weren’t able to stay on the field enough to produce due to off-field issues. Tyreek Hill is a recent example. His talent was obvious in his limited time at Oklahoma State but off field issues derailed his career. He seems to have been able to turn his life around and has emerged as an impact NFL player.
Antonio Callaway is the late-round 2018 prospect who could follow a similar path if he can get his act together off of the field. Callaway managed just 89 catches, 1,399 receiving yards and 7 touchdowns in his career at Florida. However, like Hill, his talent was obvious when he was able to stay on the field. Multiple suspensions for a variety of issues (credit card fraud, drugs, and investigations into alleged sexual misconduct) derailed his career and make him a bit of a long shot from an NFL perspective. However, if he matures and puts his off-field issues behind him, he has the talent to be an impact NFL receiver in the mold of Stefon Diggs.
Top Tight Ends
The 2018 tight end class does not have the same Round 1 NFL Draft sizzle of the historic 2017 crop, which produced three picks in the top-30. Who is your early No.1 tight end this year and what makes them your top option?
Jason Wood: Dallas Goedert (South Dakota State) gets the nod because he's the closest thing to a two-way tight end at the top of the draft boards. He can earn a regular role faster than Hayden Hearst (South Carolina), a former baseball player who is the most explosive receiver at the position but wasn't asked to be a blocker often.
Jeff Tefertiller: I have Mark Andrews tops at tight end. He is an average blocker but has shown the ability to make a play after the catch, speed to break off a big play up the seam, and good routes. This class has several players in the discussion and will be interesting to watch play out.
Daniel Simpkins: I actually prefer Dallas Goedert to Mark Andrews because the athletic upside is higher. Goedert has a high school basketball background, which is always something I like to see from a tight end prospect because many of those boxing out and aerial body control skills are skills you also utilize as an NFL tight end. Most of the time, he’s getting separation from the defender, but I see Goedert as someone who can win the ball, even when coverage is tight and he’s being jostled on his routes.
Dan Hindery: Dallas Goedert is my favorite tight end in the class. He isn’t a big name like O.J. Howard was coming out of Alabama because Goedert played at the FCS level for South Dakota State, but he is a big, athletic guy with a knack for making spectacular catches. Goedert was insanely productive over the last two seasons. In his junior and senior seasons combined, he caught 164 passes for 2,404 yards and 18 touchdowns. At 6’4, 260 pounds and a rumored sub-4.7 forty-yard dash, Goedert also has excellent NFL measurables. I expect him to be drafted somewhere in the top-50 picks of the draft and if he lands in a good situation, he could make an early fantasy impact.
Chad Parsons: Dallas Goedert can close the gap, but I am on Team Mark Andrews. The former wide receiver is a refined route runner, a red zone maven, and possessing one of the highest production scores in my entire tight end model. Overall, Andrews scores in the top-2% of all tight end prospects dating back to 1999. Andrews deserves consideration in Round 1 by the NFL and Goedert will be shortly behind in the top-50.