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2018 Quarterback Regression: Touchdown and Interception Rates - Footballguys

Historical touchdown and interception rate regression and how it affects 2018 quarterbacks

One of the biggest influences to fantasy football scores is a touchdown. Plenty of randomness goes into a touchdown from a defensive turnover creating a short field, jump ball in the end zone, pass interference penalty to even a tipped pass or garbage time drive. The Red Zone channel parks most of their coverage inside the 20-yard-line for a reason: touchdowns live there. The term touchdown regression has been around awhile. Back in my profootballfocus.com writing days, I scoured nearly every offensive statistic looking for the best regression outliers from year to year. While there were some categories fighting for second place, touchdown rate was annually at the top, both in its strength of regression and in bottom-line fantasy football impact. With the NFL Draft in the rear-view mirror, let's look at touchdown regression for the quarterback position in 2018:

Sample Size: 261 quarterbacks from 2005-2016

Criteria: 250+ attempted passes in both the test season and the following season

THE TOUCHDOWN DATA

Overall, these 261 criteria-fitting quarterbacks averaged a 7.5% touchdown rate (on their completed passes)

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