This year's Quarterback by Committee article sparked a few great questions from the readers, and that led to this article where I could share the answers. Sometimes the questions are so good, you have to share the responses to everyone as most anyone would be curious for the answer, and can stand to benefit from it in their drafts. That's how some of the best articles are born. A reader of the original QBBC article (Kevin Tabackman) posed a great question of whether it made sense to use Roethlisberger only at home and pair him with a different quarterback for a unique twist of QBBC. I actually loved this idea, so I was anxious to see what the answer would be.
First, there is the concern this year (and in recent years) about the unique performance patterns for Ben Roethlisberger. Our favorite Pittsburgh quarterback has a strange history of doing very well at home while struggling on the road. This has morphed into the infamous "Home/Road Split" debate for Mr. Roethlisberger, but there can be no denying of what the numbers have shown. First, let's take a look at Roethlisberger's career numbers at home vs. the road, and then also since two significant changes have occurred during his Steeler career:
Time Frame
|
2007-2017
|
2013-2017
|
||
Category
|
Home
|
Road
|
Home
|
Road
|
Attempts
|
34.3
|
33.9
|
38.6
|
36.3
|
Completions
|
22.5
|
21.5
|
25.9
|
23.3
|
Interceptions
|
0.8
|
0.9
|
0.9
|
0.9
|
Passing Touchdowns
|
2.0
|
1.4
|
2.5
|
1.3
|
Passing Yards
|
276.3
|
255.4
|
315.5
|
267.7
|
Fantasy Points
|
19.1
|
15.2
|
27.1
|
18.5
|
Delta
|
3.9
|
16.5%
|
8.6
|
32.0%
|
Table 1: Ben Roethlisberger's Career Performances - Home vs. Road
A special thanks to fellow Footballguy Ryan Hester (follow him on Twitter here) for pulling together this data!
The reasons for drawing the lines throughout his career at these intervals is that Pittsburgh changed to head coach Mike Tomlin in 2007 and then LeVeon Bell joined the team in 2013. So as the tables above show, it really does not matter how you slice it - Roethlisberger has clearly been a better quarterback at home in comparision to on the road, with as much as 39% difference in performance. That is definitely significant, no matter what the reason - be it a new head coach or the addition of a stud running back. Numbers are numbers, and the numbers here tell us that we have to at least consider not playing Ben Roethlisberger when he is not in Pittsburgh.
Now, looking at the schedule for the Steelers, Week 1 takes Pittsburgh to Cleveland (same as last year). Surely, the Browns have to be the exception for Roethlisberger, right? Cleveland has been terrible, so one would expect that Roethlisberger would have a better history against them. Table 2 gives us a quick answer:
Time Frame
|
2013-2017
|
|
Category
|
at CLE
|
All others
|
Attempts
|
36.8
|
36.3
|
Completions
|
22.8
|
23.4
|
Interceptions
|
0.8
|
0.9
|
Passing Touchdowns
|
1.6
|
1.2
|
Passing Yards
|
244.8
|
271.2
|
Fantasy Points
|
18.5
|
18.5
|
Delta
|
0.0
|
0.0%
|
Table 2 - Ben Roethlisberger's Career Numbers in Cleveland
In two words - not good. Roethlisberger has not done well even at Cleveland on the road.
So, in response to the question of whether or not to use Ben Roethlisberger as your fantasy starter on the road this season, I offer you three questions:
1. Do you believe that history repeats itself? If you answer "Yes", pass on starting Ben Roethlisberger and skip ahead to the next section.
2. If there is any team you would consider starting Roethlisberger on the road against, it would be the lowly Cleveland Browns, correct?" If you answer "Yes", please refer to Table 2 and try and get past Question 3.
3. If you agree that Roethlisberger struggles in Cleveland (as Table 2 shows), would you also agree that any other road game will be tougher for him this year?" If you answer "Yes", please continue reading to find out how to deal with this issue.
QB-BEN BY COMMITTEE
May I present to you a twist on the quarterback by committee, or QBBC approach to the position. Enter in the "QB Ben By Committee", or "QB-BenBC" for short. The plan here is to find out what quarterback(s) best complement using Ben Roethlisberger as your starting quarterback only when he is in Pittsburgh. That required some thought, but I was able to re-use the QBBC tools that I have to find out the answer. By plugging in a zero projected score for Roethlisberger for all eight of his road games, I forced the tool to give me the best options to use to replace Roethlisberger with a single alternative quarterback for my QB2. The results are provided below:
Quarterback 1
|
Quarterback 2
|
Value
|
Ben Roethlisberger
|
Alex Smith
|
343.6
|
Ben Roethlisberger
|
Matt Ryan
|
335.4
|
Ben Roethlisberger
|
Philip Rivers
|
331.4
|
Ben Roethlisberger
|
Dak Prescott
|
327.9
|
Table 3 - Quarterback Ben By Committee Options for 2018
Four names appear on the list to pair with Ben Roethlisberger, and all four options should fit the bill as QB2s available shortly after Ben Roethlisberger gets selected. So how do these pairs stand up?
PUTTING IT ALL TOGETHER
Now that we have four possible quarterbacks to pair with Ben Roethlisberger, how do those compare to a QB1 option for 2018? Going back to the original QBBC article this year, we can fall back to Table 4 for the projections for the Top 17 QBs in standard scoring:
ADP
|
QB Rank
|
Quarterback
|
Team
|
FanPts
|
36
|
1
|
Aaron Rodgers
|
GB
|
354.2
|
59
|
4
|
Tom Brady
|
NE
|
336.9
|
56
|
2
|
Russell Wilson
|
SEA
|
335.1
|
58
|
3
|
Deshaun Watson
|
HOU
|
328.6
|
68
|
5
|
Cam Newton
|
CAR
|
332.6
|
75
|
6
|
Drew Brees
|
NO
|
322.6
|
139
|
18
|
Alex Smith
|
WAS
|
311.8
|
104
|
11
|
Jimmy Garoppolo
|
SF
|
310.2
|
100
|
9
|
Kirk Cousins
|
MIN
|
311.1
|
101
|
10
|
Matthew Stafford
|
DET
|
315.1
|
77
|
7
|
Carson Wentz
|
PHI
|
312.1
|
98
|
8
|
Ben Roethlisberger
|
PIT
|
308.7
|
129
|
16
|
Jared Goff
|
LAR
|
303.1
|
113
|
14
|
Matt Ryan
|
ATL
|
304.2
|
111
|
13
|
Philip Rivers
|
LAC
|
302.2
|
121
|
15
|
Patrick Mahomes II
|
KC
|
300.4
|
148
|
20
|
Dak Prescott
|
DAL
|
302.0
|
109
|
12
|
Andrew Luck
|
IND
|
302.6
|
Table 4: Projected Fantasy Points for Top 12+ ADP QBs
Based on Tables 3 and 4, we see that the top option (Roethlisberger-Smith) yields a projected total of 343.6 points, or not far off of Drew Brees all season long and a bye week replacement of 18-22 points (Brees at 322.6 + 18-22 gives a 340.6-344.6 range) - which means playing Alex Smith when Ben Roethlisberger is either on a bye or on the road should give you Top 6 QB-type production. So taking Ben Roethlisberger in your draft and quickly following up with Alex Smith can provide you with exactly what you wished for - a quarterback committee with Roethlisberger at home for eight games and another quarterback to use when Pittsburgh is on the road.
Table 5 summarizes the combined schedule for Roethlisberger and Smith:
Week
|
Suggested Starter
|
Opponent
|
1
|
Alex Smith
|
at Arizona
|
2
|
Ben Roethlisberger
|
Kansas City
|
3
|
Alex Smith
|
Green Bay
|
4
|
Ben Roethlisberger
|
Baltimore
|
5
|
Ben Roethlisberger
|
Atlanta
|
6
|
Alex Smith
|
Carolina
|
7
|
Alex Smith
|
Dallas
|
8
|
Ben Roethlisberger
|
Cleveland
|
9
|
Alex Smith
|
Atlanta
|
10
|
Ben Roethlisberger
|
Carolina
|
11
|
Alex Smith
|
Houston
|
12
|
Alex Smith
|
at Dallas
|
13
|
Ben Roethlisberger
|
Los Angeles Chargers
|
14
|
Alex Smith
|
New York Giants
|
15
|
Ben Roethlisberger
|
New England
|
16
|
Alex Smith
|
at Tennessee
|
17
|
Ben Roethlisberger
|
Cincinnati
|
Table 5: Suggested QB-BenBC Schedule Plan - Ben Roethlisberger and Alex Smith
QBBC FOR AUCTIONS
As a small bonus, another reader (Mike H.) emailed me and mentioned that he was in an auction league, so while the QBBC approach was still valid, he wished that I had not drawn a line at QB12 and only considered players under that line. The reasoning is valid, as quarterbacks 7-16 should be in similar price ranges in auctions, so a strong QBBC may exist by taking two from this group or one QB from the group and another later value option. To help with this scenario, I am providing another table below that shows the Top 100 quarterback pairs with only the Top 6 quarterbacks not available:
Rank
|
Quarterback 1
|
Quarterback 2
|
Value
|
1
|
Carson Wentz
|
Kirk Cousins
|
360.3
|
2
|
Kirk Cousins
|
Matthew Stafford
|
359.8
|
3
|
Carson Wentz
|
Matthew Stafford
|
355.5
|
4
|
Patrick Mahomes II
|
Carson Wentz
|
355.5
|
5
|
Matthew Stafford
|
Ben Roethlisberger
|
354.1
|
6
|
Carson Wentz
|
Ben Roethlisberger
|
353.8
|
7
|
Matthew Stafford
|
Jimmy Garoppolo
|
353.0
|
8
|
Dak Prescott
|
Carson Wentz
|
352.9
|
9
|
Carson Wentz
|
Jimmy Garoppolo
|
352.3
|
10
|
Alex Smith
|
Carson Wentz
|
350.5
|
11
|
Andrew Luck
|
Kirk Cousins
|
350.4
|
12
|
Philip Rivers
|
Carson Wentz
|
350.0
|
13
|
Philip Rivers
|
Alex Smith
|
349.8
|
14
|
Jared Goff
|
Carson Wentz
|
349.8
|
15
|
Matt Ryan
|
Kirk Cousins
|
349.6
|
16
|
Alex Smith
|
Dak Prescott
|
349.4
|
17
|
Patrick Mahomes II
|
Matthew Stafford
|
349.2
|
18
|
Alex Smith
|
Kirk Cousins
|
349.0
|
19
|
Kirk Cousins
|
Jimmy Garoppolo
|
348.7
|
20
|
Philip Rivers
|
Matthew Stafford
|
348.5
|
21
|
Dak Prescott
|
Jimmy Garoppolo
|
348.5
|
22
|
Alex Smith
|
Matthew Stafford
|
347.9
|
23
|
Alex Smith
|
Andrew Luck
|
347.7
|
24
|
Andrew Luck
|
Ben Roethlisberger
|
347.3
|
25
|
Alex Smith
|
Ben Roethlisberger
|
347.1
|
26
|
Patrick Mahomes II
|
Andrew Luck
|
347.0
|
27
|
Jared Goff
|
Matthew Stafford
|
346.6
|
28
|
Andrew Luck
|
Jimmy Garoppolo
|
346.4
|
29
|
Patrick Mahomes II
|
Alex Smith
|
346.0
|
30
|
Alex Smith
|
Jimmy Garoppolo
|
345.9
|
31
|
Philip Rivers
|
Jimmy Garoppolo
|
345.5
|
32
|
Matt Ryan
|
Ben Roethlisberger
|
345.4
|
33
|
Jared Goff
|
Andrew Luck
|
345.4
|
34
|
Kirk Cousins
|
Ben Roethlisberger
|
344.5
|
35
|
Jared Goff
|
Jimmy Garoppolo
|
344.1
|
36
|
Philip Rivers
|
Ben Roethlisberger
|
343.9
|
37
|
Andrew Luck
|
Matthew Stafford
|
343.8
|
38
|
Dak Prescott
|
Ben Roethlisberger
|
343.7
|
39
|
Dak Prescott
|
Matthew Stafford
|
343.2
|
40
|
Philip Rivers
|
Kirk Cousins
|
343.1
|
41
|
Matt Ryan
|
Matthew Stafford
|
343.0
|
42
|
Dak Prescott
|
Kirk Cousins
|
342.9
|
43
|
Jared Goff
|
Kirk Cousins
|
342.9
|
44
|
Philip Rivers
|
Jared Goff
|
342.8
|
45
|
Jared Goff
|
Alex Smith
|
342.1
|
46
|
Matt Ryan
|
Patrick Mahomes II
|
342.0
|
47
|
Philip Rivers
|
Andrew Luck
|
341.9
|
48
|
Matt Ryan
|
Alex Smith
|
341.8
|
49
|
Matt Ryan
|
Jared Goff
|
341.5
|
50
|
Ben Roethlisberger
|
Jimmy Garoppolo
|
341.3
|
51
|
Jared Goff
|
Ben Roethlisberger
|
340.9
|
52
|
Patrick Mahomes II
|
Ben Roethlisberger
|
340.4
|
53
|
Matt Ryan
|
Carson Wentz
|
340.3
|
54
|
Matt Ryan
|
Jimmy Garoppolo
|
340.2
|
55
|
Patrick Mahomes II
|
Kirk Cousins
|
340.0
|
56
|
Dak Prescott
|
Andrew Luck
|
340.0
|
57
|
Patrick Mahomes II
|
Jimmy Garoppolo
|
339.7
|
58
|
Patrick Mahomes II
|
Dak Prescott
|
338.5
|
59
|
Philip Rivers
|
Patrick Mahomes II
|
337.6
|
60
|
Matt Ryan
|
Andrew Luck
|
337.0
|
61
|
Jared Goff
|
Dak Prescott
|
336.2
|
62
|
Carson Wentz
|
Andrew Luck
|
331.2
|
63
|
Matt Ryan
|
Dak Prescott
|
324.9
|
64
|
Philip Rivers
|
Matt Ryan
|
322.5
|
65
|
Philip Rivers
|
Dak Prescott
|
322.4
|
66
|
Patrick Mahomes II
|
Jared Goff
|
319.1
|
67
|
Matthew Stafford
|
n/a
|
315.1
|
Table 6: Top 60+ QBBC Pairs Also Including QB7-QB16+
Table 6 worked out quite well, with over 50 pairs coming in above 340 points, which again is close to the target for Drew Brees and a bye week replacement. Getting any two quarterbacks in the upper half of Table 6 to pair up from this list represents a projected QB6 value including an 18-20 point bye week replacement.
The committee approach is not a perfect one, but having this knowledge prior to your fantasy draft can prove to be invaluable if you decide to adopt this approach. If all the players on your starter list are gone, going with a committee can save your team and help you deal with the loss of bigger names. The method is also a big help in "Best Ball" leagues, where lineup decisions are not necessary every week. That's exactly where a committee can do the best, as either player can count for you each week.
Questions, suggestions, and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com.