Over the past few years, we have given the subscribers of Footballguys.com some help in playing office pools, one of the most popular methods to follow the NFL aside from fantasy football leagues. For the past few seasons, the staff members have done the Staff Confidence Pool Challenge, where numerous staffers try and pick the winners each week with a confidence ranking, and Jeff Pasquino’s “For The Win” column where Jeff attempts to pick each and every NFL game against the Las Vegas spread. Both of these have been very popular features, so this year Footballguys is adding a combination of the two called the “Against the Spread” Challenge and also the Eliminator Challenge, where staffers have to pick a team to win each week. Just one? That sounds easy, but here is the catch – you can only pick the team you choose in a given week once all season long. Many contests and pools out there get pretty big, so an Eliminator (or Survivor) Pool can go 16 or 17 weeks.
Jeff Pasquino has provided some insight into this kind of contest with two preseason articles. The first one that describes this kind of contest along with some advice on how to pick a team each week:
The second article is rather interesting, which describes Jeff’s preseason plan to get all the way through 17 weeks. Will it work? We are about to find out.
This pool will run all season long, but to keep participation up, the pool will crown the staffer with the best W-L record for the season (which means that everyone in the pool will continue to make picks every week).
LAST WEEK'S RESULTS
NFL Week 8 was once again almost a clean week, as only Bear Heiser and Ari Ingel's picks were not winners with Detroit losing to Seattle 28-14. A season-high seven teams aside from Detroit covered the rest of the picks, and all of the favorites took care of business, led by the Steelers, Patriots, and Bears. With another week behind us and as we arrive at the midpoint of the regular season, things will continue to get more and more complicated with fewer high-quality choices each week. Now let us take a look at the picks for Week 9.
THIS WEEK'S PICK SUMMARY
Here are the picks for this week:
Staff Member
|
Record
|
Wk01
|
Wk02
|
Wk03
|
Wk04
|
Wk05
|
Wk06
|
Wk07
|
Wk08
|
Wk09
|
Wk10
|
Wk11
|
Wk12
|
Wk13
|
Wk14
|
Wk15
|
Wk16
|
Wk17
|
Devin Knotts
|
8-0
|
BAL
|
DEN
|
CLE
|
LAC
|
NE
|
MIN
|
ATL
|
PIT
|
KC
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Aaron Rudnicki
|
7-1
|
BAL
|
LAR
|
MIN
|
GB
|
CAR
|
HOU
|
LAC
|
CIN
|
CHI
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Dave Larkin
|
7-1
|
BAL
|
NO
|
JAC
|
LAC
|
CAR
|
MIN
|
IND
|
NE
|
KC
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Jeff Haseley
|
7-1
|
BAL
|
LAR
|
MIN
|
LAC
|
NE
|
GB
|
ATL
|
KC
|
CAR
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Mark Wimer
|
7-1
|
BAL
|
LAR
|
MIN
|
LAC
|
NO
|
GB
|
ATL
|
CIN
|
HOU
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Matt Bitonti
|
7-1
|
NE
|
DEN
|
MIN
|
LAC
|
CAR
|
GB
|
ATL
|
CHI
|
KC
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Jeff Pasquino
|
7-1
|
NO
|
LAR
|
PHI
|
LAC
|
CAR
|
HOU
|
IND
|
PIT
|
CHI
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Ari Ingel
|
6-2
|
BAL
|
LAR
|
MIN
|
JAC
|
NE
|
GB
|
LAC
|
DET
|
KC
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Andy Hicks
|
6-2
|
BAL
|
LAR
|
MIN
|
LAC
|
NE
|
GB
|
PHI
|
PIT
|
KC
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Alessandro Miglio
|
6-2
|
NO
|
LAR
|
KC
|
JAC
|
DEN
|
MIN
|
ATL
|
HOU
|
SF
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
James Brimacombe
|
6-2
|
NO
|
LAR
|
MIN
|
GB
|
CIN
|
HOU
|
LAC
|
NE
|
CAR
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
William Grant
|
6-2
|
NO
|
SF
|
MIN
|
LAC
|
NE
|
HOU
|
LAR
|
PIT
|
DAL
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Bear Heiser
|
5-3
|
NO
|
LAR
|
KC
|
ATL
|
LAC
|
HOU
|
MIN
|
DET
|
CHI
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Sean Settle
|
5-3
|
NO
|
LAC
|
JAC
|
NE
|
DEN
|
HOU
|
LAR
|
PIT
|
KC
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Justin Howe
|
5-3
|
NO
|
LAC
|
JAC
|
GB
|
TEN
|
MIN
|
LAR
|
CHI
|
KC
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Andrew Garda
|
4-4
|
DET
|
BAL
|
HOU
|
SEA
|
TEN
|
GB
|
LAR
|
IND
|
DAL
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
DISCUSSION
The picks are in for Week 9, and we have a little more of a consensus amongst the staff this week. The top teams to choose appear to be Kansas City (at Cleveland) or the Bears (at Buffalo). Both the Chiefs (7 of 16 staff chose them) and Chicago (3) are road favorites by more than a touchdown, so it makes sense that both teams are at the top of the list for Week 9. (There is more commentary on this decision in the commentary below.) Dallas (2) and Carolina (2) are the only other multiple selections for the week, and both the Cowboys (hosting Tennessee) and Panthers (home against Tampa Bay) are close to a touchdown favorite at home. There are only two unique picks this week as both the 49ers (hosting Oakland on Thursday) and Houston (at Denver) got single votes. Once again with several different selections, this could be a big week for moves in the standings, so check back next week to see how it plays out.
Please note a few things: We will be doing these picks every week, win or lose, to keep it entertaining all season long. Normally a Survivor/Eliminator pool would end once all but one player lost once, but to provide our subscribers with more perspectives, everyone will pick every week even if they lose. That said, we will still try and honor the spirit of an Eliminator / Survivor Pool, trying to win every week and not re-use any teams during the year.
COMMENTARY
Each week, contestants are invited to submit any comments that they might have about their picks. If they submit them early enough, we post them with the article. If not, the comments will be within the section below.
Jeff Pasquino: Going back to my preseason plan, it was quite clear that the stretch of Weeks 9-11 was the toughest part of the schedule to plan for in 2018. Tons of byes covered these three weeks, and a lot of the weaker teams were off or playing one another across this span. The good news is that Week 9 looks like another week that can be stolen with the Bears heavily favored at Buffalo, which affords me the luxury of saving Kansas City for next week as the Chiefs host those same Buffalo Bills. Week 11 still looks like a mess, but that ugly bridge will be crossed in two weeks. Perhaps by then another team will start to pack it in for the season and a good matchup will bubble up to the surface, but until then the focus remains on taking a heavy favorite that is not Kansas City, which points directly at taking a Chicago team against Nate Peterman in Buffalo. The Bears are 10 point favorites with a Money Line of -500, implying an 83% chance of a victory for Chicago. Those are great odds.
The Pick: Chicago Bears
Good luck this weekend!
Questions, suggestions, and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com