Over the past few years, we have given the subscribers of Footballguys.com some help in playing office pools, one of the most popular methods to follow the NFL aside from fantasy football leagues. For the past few seasons, the staff members have done the Staff Confidence Pool Challenge, where numerous staffers try and pick the winners each week with a confidence ranking, and Jeff Pasquino’s “For The Win” column where Jeff attempts to pick each and every NFL game against the Las Vegas spread. Both of these have been very popular features, so this year Footballguys is adding a combination of the two called the “Against the Spread” Challenge and also the Eliminator Challenge, where staffers have to pick a team to win each week. Just one? That sounds easy, but here is the catch – you can only pick the team you choose in a given week once all season long. Many contests and pools out there get pretty big, so an Eliminator (or Survivor) Pool can go 16 or 17 weeks.
Jeff Pasquino has provided some insight into this kind of contest with two preseason articles. The first one that describes this kind of contest along with some advice on how to pick a team each week:
The second article is rather interesting, which describes Jeff’s preseason plan to get all the way through 17 weeks. Will it work? We are about to find out.
This pool will run all season long, but to keep participation up, the pool will crown the staffer with the best W-L record for the season (which means that everyone in the pool will continue to make picks every week).
LAST WEEK'S RESULTS
Ok, so NFL Week 2 was relatively quiet, but that was apparently the calm before the storm. NFL Week 3 was nothing short of a bloodbath, as 12 of the 16 entries all took a loss on the week. Minnesota's shocking loss at home to the Bills was directly responsible for most of the damage as eight staffers went towards the Vikings last week, while Jacksonville's loss to Tennessee added three more. Sadly, Andrew Garda rounded out the losing group (again) with his third loss of the year as the Giants went to Texas and beat Houston on the road. Only Devin Knotts is left after three very difficult weeks with a perfect 3-0 record. So much for running the table for nearly all of the staff - but we all march forward.
THIS WEEK'S PICK SUMMARY
Here are the picks for this week:
Staff Member
|
Record
|
Wk01
|
Wk02
|
Wk03
|
Wk04
|
Wk05
|
Wk06
|
Wk07
|
Wk08
|
Wk09
|
Wk10
|
Wk11
|
Wk12
|
Wk13
|
Wk14
|
Wk15
|
Wk16
|
Wk17
|
Devin Knotts
|
3-0
|
BAL
|
DEN
|
CLE
|
LAC
|
|||||||||||||
Aaron Rudnicki
|
2-1
|
BAL
|
LAR
|
MIN
|
GB
|
|||||||||||||
Andy Hicks
|
2-1
|
BAL
|
LAR
|
MIN
|
LAC
|
|||||||||||||
Ari Ingel
|
2-1
|
BAL
|
LAR
|
MIN
|
X
|
|||||||||||||
Dave Larkin
|
2-1
|
BAL
|
NO
|
JAC
|
LAC
|
|||||||||||||
Jeff Haseley
|
2-1
|
BAL
|
LAR
|
MIN
|
LAC
|
|||||||||||||
Mark Wimer
|
2-1
|
BAL
|
LAR
|
MIN
|
LAC
|
|||||||||||||
Matt Bitonti
|
2-1
|
NE
|
DEN
|
MIN
|
LAC
|
|||||||||||||
Alessandro Miglio
|
2-1
|
NO
|
LAR
|
KC
|
JAC
|
|||||||||||||
Bear Heiser
|
2-1
|
NO
|
LAR
|
KC
|
ATL
|
|||||||||||||
Jeff Pasquino
|
2-1
|
NO
|
LAR
|
PHI
|
LAC
|
|||||||||||||
James Brimacombe
|
1-2
|
NO
|
LAR
|
MIN
|
GB
|
|||||||||||||
Sean Settle
|
1-2
|
NO
|
LAC
|
JAC
|
NE
|
|||||||||||||
Justin Howe
|
1-2
|
NO
|
LAC
|
JAC
|
GB
|
|||||||||||||
William Grant
|
1-2
|
NO
|
SF
|
MIN
|
LAC
|
|||||||||||||
Andrew Garda
|
0-3
|
DET
|
BAL
|
HOU
|
SEA
|
DISCUSSION
The staff has some variety again in Week 3, but there are two clear picks in a week where playing it safe feels like the safest way to go. Two teams are big favorites at home, and they both dominate the selections this week. First, the Los Angeles Chargers are hosting the 49ers this Sunday, and San Francisco just lost Jimmy Garoppolo was just lost for the season with a torn ACL. That leaves C.J. Beathard as the starter, so it is of little wonder as to why the Chargers are double-digit favorites in Week 4. More than half of the staff (8 of 15) went towards to Chargers this week, while three others selected the other big favorite at home in Green Bay. Before Week 1 this looked like a great spot to take the Packers as they host Buffalo, but after the Bills' big upset in Minnesota and Green Bay's slow start, including a loss in Washington last week, make this choice a good pick, but not as rock solid as it appeared before three weeks of action. Even with some added doubt, Green Bay is still a 10+ point favorite at home, as are the Chargers. The rest of the staff showed a little bit of variety and uniqueness with four one-off selections of Atlanta (hosting Cincinnati), Jacksonville (hosting the Jets), New England (hosting Miami) and Seattle (road favorites in Arizona). Any of those four picks could go in either direction, so they are a bit riskier - but after Week 3's results, there are very few sure things left in the NFL these days. Six different NFL teams are on the list, so there could be some separation coming at the top of the standings once again after Week 4.
Please note a few things: We will be doing these picks every week, win or lose, to keep it entertaining all season long. Normally a Survivor/Eliminator pool would end once all but one player lost once, but to provide our subscribers with more perspectives, everyone will pick every week even if they lose. That said, we will still try and honor the spirit of an Eliminator / Survivor Pool, trying to win every week and not re-use any teams during the year.
COMMENTARY
Each week, contestants are invited to submit any comments that they might have about their picks. If they submit them early enough, we post them with the article. If not, the comments will be within the section below.
Jeff Pasquino: Week 3 worked out just fine for me as I avoided Minnesota and went with the Eagles at home over the Colts. The game was very close but Philadelphia prevailed, and a big part of my preseason plan worked out great as I avoided the Vikings - and they lost in a shocker. If you followed that script, odds are that about half of your competition fell by the wayside, and now things really start to get interesting.
Now that I focused on the good part of that preseason plan, let's look at Week 4 and the writeup from back in August:
WEEK 4 BREAKDOWN
Teams to consider: Atlanta, Green Bay, Jacksonville, New England, Oakland, and Pittsburgh
Summary: Bye weeks start in Week 4, with Carolina and Washington off. Six teams make our "short list", and the Packers hosting the Bills looks pretty attractive. The theme this year is finding the right spots to use these good teams, and really plan out your season. The Patriots host the always problematic divisional rival Dolphins, while Atlanta hosts the Bengals. Oakland hosts the Browns, and if the Raiders look competent, this is where I am leaning. If not, I may just go after the Jaguars here hosting the Jets (especially if New York is a mess). Taking Oakland lets me hold on to the Jaguars and fits the steal-a-game-early rule I like to target for Survivor.
***PRESEASON PICK***: Oakland (hosting Cleveland); Plan B = Jacksonville (hosting the New York Jets)
To all of that above, I say "No thanks". Sorry, I cannot stick with that plan. While I would love to steal a game early, I think the Eagles may have been that theft, so it is time to take a surer pick and not worry about December (a pitfall I fell into in Week 1 when the Saints lost and the Ravens won - had I gone with Baltimore, my record would be 3-0). Taking the Chargers as a big home favorite over the 49ers is the right and safe move, and I will leave Week 12 for another decision later in the year.
The Pick: Los Angeles Chargers
Good luck this weekend!
Questions, suggestions, and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com