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Over the past few years, we have given the subscribers of Footballguys.com the Staff Confidence Pool Challenge, where numerous staffers try and pick the winners each week with a confidence ranking, and Jeff Pasquino’s “For The Win” column where Jeff attempts to pick each and every NFL game against the Las Vegas spread. Both of these have been very popular features, so this year Footballguys is proud to bring you the combination of the two. The Footballguys.com Staff Against the Spread Pool Challenge. Multiple staff members (18) will pick the winner of each NFL game against the Las Vegas line. As a tie-breaker, the person who is closest to the total points scored on the last Monday Night game will be the winner. Winners will be announced from week to week and the best overall record will be crowned Against the Spread Champion. Picks and ranks are due on Wednesday, so any late-breaking news may not be reflected in the choices.
Please note, that this contest should NOT be viewed as direct sports wagering advice, especially later in the season. Since the staff is trying to beat one another, picks may be made to go against the grain in an attempt to try and catch up in the standings. This example of game theory is more in tune towards playing a contest such as this - so again, do not use these picks as direct advice towards which games to pick each and every week. Rather, use these picks to see the top choices each week, especially by the staff members towards the top of the standings.
LAST WEEK'S RESULTS
Here are the results from last week:
Road Team:
|
LAC
|
HOU
|
CLE
|
WAS
|
OAK
|
ARI
|
TEN
|
MIA
|
DAL
|
GB
|
TB
|
DET
|
SEA
|
NE
|
PHI
|
NO
|
|
|
|
Home Team:
|
KC
|
NYJ
|
DEN
|
JAC
|
CIN
|
ATL
|
NYG
|
MIN
|
IND
|
CHI
|
BAL
|
BUF
|
SF
|
PIT
|
LAR
|
CAR
|
|
|
|
Favorite:
|
KC
|
HOU
|
DEN
|
JAC
|
CIN
|
ATL
|
NYG
|
MIN
|
IND
|
CHI
|
BAL
|
BUF
|
SEA
|
NE
|
LAR
|
NO
|
|
|
|
Point Spread:
|
-3.5
|
-6.5
|
-3.5
|
-7.5
|
-3.5
|
-8.5
|
-2.5
|
-8.5
|
-3.5
|
-5.5
|
-8.5
|
-2.5
|
-5.5
|
-2.5
|
-9.5
|
-6.5
|
|
|
|
Staffer
|
The Picks
|
MNF
|
LW
|
Total
|
|||||||||||||||
Devin Knotts
|
LAC
|
NYJ
|
CLE
|
WAS
|
OAK
|
ARI
|
TEN
|
MIN
|
IND
|
GB
|
TB
|
DET
|
SF
|
PIT
|
PHI
|
CAR
|
46
|
12
|
114
|
Bear Heiser
|
LAC
|
HOU
|
CLE
|
WAS
|
OAK
|
ATL
|
NYG
|
MIN
|
IND
|
CHI
|
TB
|
BUF
|
SEA
|
PIT
|
LAR
|
CAR
|
56
|
11
|
112
|
Phil Alexander
|
LAC
|
NYJ
|
CLE
|
WAS
|
OAK
|
ARI
|
TEN
|
MIA
|
IND
|
CHI
|
TB
|
DET
|
SF
|
NE
|
LAR
|
NO
|
50
|
9
|
119
|
Jeff Pasquino
|
LAC
|
HOU
|
DEN
|
JAC
|
CIN
|
ATL
|
TEN
|
MIN
|
IND
|
CHI
|
BAL
|
BUF
|
SEA
|
NE
|
LAR
|
NO
|
51
|
8
|
112
|
Aaron Rudnicki
|
LAC
|
HOU
|
CLE
|
WAS
|
OAK
|
ARI
|
TEN
|
MIA
|
DAL
|
GB
|
TB
|
BUF
|
SEA
|
NE
|
PHI
|
CAR
|
44
|
8
|
117
|
Andy Hicks
|
LAC
|
HOU
|
CLE
|
JAC
|
OAK
|
ARI
|
NYG
|
MIA
|
DAL
|
CHI
|
TB
|
BUF
|
SEA
|
PIT
|
PHI
|
CAR
|
47
|
8
|
112
|
Danny Tuccitto
|
KC
|
NYJ
|
DEN
|
JAC
|
CIN
|
ARI
|
TEN
|
MIA
|
DAL
|
CHI
|
TB
|
DET
|
SF
|
PIT
|
LAR
|
CAR
|
49
|
8
|
112
|
James Brimacombe
|
LAC
|
HOU
|
CLE
|
JAC
|
CIN
|
ATL
|
TEN
|
MIA
|
DAL
|
GB
|
BAL
|
BUF
|
SEA
|
PIT
|
PHI
|
NO
|
50
|
8
|
115
|
William Grant
|
KC
|
HOU
|
CLE
|
JAC
|
OAK
|
ATL
|
TEN
|
MIA
|
DAL
|
CHI
|
TB
|
DET
|
SEA
|
PIT
|
LAR
|
NO
|
48
|
8
|
108
|
Keith Roberts
|
KC
|
HOU
|
CLE
|
JAC
|
OAK
|
ATL
|
TEN
|
MIA
|
DAL
|
CHI
|
TB
|
BUF
|
SEA
|
NE
|
LAR
|
CAR
|
49
|
7
|
109
|
Mark Wimer
|
LAC
|
HOU
|
DEN
|
JAC
|
OAK
|
ATL
|
TEN
|
MIA
|
IND
|
CHI
|
BAL
|
BUF
|
SEA
|
PIT
|
LAR
|
NO
|
70
|
7
|
106
|
Sean Settle
|
KC
|
HOU
|
DEN
|
WAS
|
CIN
|
ATL
|
NYG
|
MIN
|
DAL
|
CHI
|
BAL
|
BUF
|
SEA
|
NE
|
PHI
|
NO
|
48
|
7
|
108
|
Andrew Garda
|
KC
|
HOU
|
CLE
|
WAS
|
CIN
|
ATL
|
NYG
|
MIA
|
DAL
|
CHI
|
BAL
|
BUF
|
SEA
|
NE
|
LAR
|
NO
|
65
|
6
|
100
|
Jeff Haseley
|
KC
|
NYJ
|
DEN
|
WAS
|
CIN
|
ATL
|
NYG
|
MIN
|
DAL
|
CHI
|
TB
|
BUF
|
SEA
|
NE
|
LAR
|
NO
|
53
|
6
|
120
|
Justin Howe
|
KC
|
HOU
|
CLE
|
JAC
|
OAK
|
ATL
|
NYG
|
MIN
|
DAL
|
CHI
|
TB
|
BUF
|
SEA
|
NE
|
LAR
|
NO
|
54
|
6
|
112
|
Alessandro Miglio
|
KC
|
NYJ
|
DEN
|
JAC
|
CIN
|
ARI
|
NYG
|
MIA
|
DAL
|
GB
|
TB
|
BUF
|
SEA
|
PIT
|
PHI
|
CAR
|
52
|
5
|
116
|
Dave Larkin
|
KC
|
NYJ
|
CLE
|
JAC
|
OAK
|
ARI
|
TEN
|
MIA
|
IND
|
GB
|
TB
|
BUF
|
SEA
|
NE
|
LAR
|
CAR
|
51
|
5
|
113
|
Matt Bitonti
|
KC
|
HOU
|
CLE
|
JAC
|
CIN
|
ARI
|
NYG
|
MIA
|
DAL
|
CHI
|
BAL
|
BUF
|
SEA
|
NE
|
LAR
|
NO
|
53
|
4
|
102
|
Vegas Winners - Over 52.4% Hit Rate
Over 50% Hit Rate
NFL Week 15 was tough on the staff overall, but Devin Knotts had a great week with a 12-4 finish. Bear Heiser was just one game back of Devin at 11-5. Only one other staffer (Phil Alexander, 9-7) managed to record a winning week. Seattle (15) and Buffalo (14) were the most common picks - and both were incorrect. Chicago (13) was right, but the staff split the six teams chosen 12 times, so that was a washout. The Jaguars (11) also cost the staff, so the Top 10 picks went 4-6 for the group as a whole with the staff landing at 133-155 for the week. That losing record added to the less than stellar group record of 2,007-2,233 (47.3%). Odds are slim for the staff to even reach 50% for this season, but everyone is still trying quite hard to get to at least that record on an individual basis, if not higher. Seven of the staff now have winning (>50%) records, achieving at least 103 wins through 224 games. Only Jeff Haseley (120) and Phil Alexander (119) have records above the Las Vegas winning percentage of 52.4% for the season. With just two weeks left, these two staffers have the best shot at the overall title, but there are plenty of others still within striking distance if someone has a fantastic week.
THIS WEEK'S PICKS
Here are the picks for this week:
Road Team:
|
WAS
|
BAL
|
JAC
|
NYG
|
ATL
|
BUF
|
HOU
|
GB
|
CIN
|
TB
|
MIN
|
CHI
|
LAR
|
PIT
|
KC
|
DEN
|
|
|
Home Team:
|
TEN
|
LAC
|
MIA
|
IND
|
CAR
|
NE
|
PHI
|
NYJ
|
CLE
|
DAL
|
DET
|
SF
|
ARI
|
NO
|
SEA
|
OAK
|
|
|
Favorite:
|
TEN
|
LAC
|
MIA
|
IND
|
CAR
|
NE
|
PHI
|
NYJ
|
CLE
|
DAL
|
MIN
|
CHI
|
LAR
|
NO
|
KC
|
DEN
|
|
|
Point Spread:
|
-10.5
|
-4.5
|
-4.5
|
-9.5
|
-3.5
|
-12.5
|
-0.5
|
-1.5
|
-7.5
|
-7.5
|
-5.5
|
-3.5
|
-14.5
|
-6.5
|
-2.5
|
-2.5
|
|
|
Staffer
|
The Picks
|
MNF
|
Total
|
|||||||||||||||
Jeff Pasquino
|
TEN
|
BAL
|
MIA
|
IND
|
ATL
|
NE
|
HOU
|
GB
|
CLE
|
DAL
|
MIN
|
CHI
|
LAR
|
NO
|
SEA
|
DEN
|
47
|
112
|
Aaron Rudnicki
|
WAS
|
BAL
|
JAC
|
IND
|
ATL
|
NE
|
HOU
|
GB
|
CIN
|
TB
|
MIN
|
CHI
|
ARI
|
NO
|
SEA
|
DEN
|
40
|
117
|
Alessandro Miglio
|
WAS
|
BAL
|
JAC
|
NYG
|
CAR
|
BUF
|
PHI
|
NYJ
|
CIN
|
TB
|
MIN
|
CHI
|
ARI
|
PIT
|
SEA
|
OAK
|
46
|
116
|
Andrew Garda
|
WAS
|
LAC
|
MIA
|
IND
|
ATL
|
NE
|
HOU
|
GB
|
CLE
|
DAL
|
MIN
|
CHI
|
ARI
|
NO
|
KC
|
DEN
|
40
|
100
|
Andy Hicks
|
TEN
|
BAL
|
JAC
|
IND
|
ATL
|
BUF
|
PHI
|
NYJ
|
CLE
|
DAL
|
MIN
|
CHI
|
LAR
|
PIT
|
SEA
|
DEN
|
35
|
112
|
Bear Heiser
|
TEN
|
LAC
|
MIA
|
IND
|
ATL
|
BUF
|
HOU
|
NYJ
|
CLE
|
TB
|
MIN
|
CHI
|
LAR
|
PIT
|
KC
|
OAK
|
44
|
112
|
Danny Tuccitto
|
TEN
|
BAL
|
MIA
|
IND
|
ATL
|
BUF
|
PHI
|
GB
|
CLE
|
TB
|
DET
|
CHI
|
ARI
|
NO
|
SEA
|
DEN
|
49
|
112
|
Dave Larkin
|
TEN
|
BAL
|
MIA
|
IND
|
ATL
|
BUF
|
PHI
|
GB
|
CLE
|
DAL
|
DET
|
CHI
|
LAR
|
NO
|
KC
|
DEN
|
42
|
113
|
Devin Knotts
|
WAS
|
BAL
|
MIA
|
NYG
|
ATL
|
BUF
|
PHI
|
GB
|
CLE
|
DAL
|
MIN
|
CHI
|
ARI
|
PIT
|
KC
|
OAK
|
46
|
114
|
James Brimacombe
|
WAS
|
BAL
|
JAC
|
IND
|
ATL
|
NE
|
PHI
|
GB
|
CLE
|
TB
|
DET
|
CHI
|
LAR
|
PIT
|
KC
|
DEN
|
37
|
115
|
Jeff Haseley
|
WAS
|
LAC
|
MIA
|
IND
|
ATL
|
BUF
|
PHI
|
GB
|
CIN
|
DAL
|
DET
|
CHI
|
ARI
|
PIT
|
KC
|
DEN
|
43
|
120
|
Justin Howe
|
WAS
|
LAC
|
MIA
|
IND
|
CAR
|
BUF
|
HOU
|
GB
|
CIN
|
DAL
|
DET
|
CHI
|
ARI
|
PIT
|
KC
|
OAK
|
44
|
112
|
Keith Roberts
|
WAS
|
LAC
|
MIA
|
NYG
|
CAR
|
BUF
|
HOU
|
GB
|
CIN
|
DAL
|
MIN
|
CHI
|
LAR
|
PIT
|
KC
|
OAK
|
44
|
109
|
Mark Wimer
|
TEN
|
LAC
|
MIA
|
IND
|
ATL
|
BUF
|
HOU
|
NYJ
|
CLE
|
DAL
|
MIN
|
CHI
|
LAR
|
PIT
|
KC
|
DEN
|
45
|
106
|
Matt Bitonti
|
WAS
|
LAC
|
MIA
|
NYG
|
ATL
|
BUF
|
PHI
|
GB
|
CLE
|
DAL
|
DET
|
SF
|
ARI
|
PIT
|
KC
|
DEN
|
58
|
102
|
Phil Alexander
|
TEN
|
BAL
|
MIA
|
NYG
|
ATL
|
NE
|
PHI
|
NYJ
|
CIN
|
TB
|
DET
|
SF
|
ARI
|
PIT
|
KC
|
DEN
|
43
|
119
|
Sean Settle
|
WAS
|
BAL
|
MIA
|
NYG
|
CAR
|
NE
|
PHI
|
GB
|
CIN
|
TB
|
MIN
|
CHI
|
ARI
|
PIT
|
KC
|
DEN
|
42
|
108
|
William Grant
|
WAS
|
LAC
|
JAC
|
IND
|
ATL
|
NE
|
HOU
|
GB
|
CLE
|
DAL
|
MIN
|
CHI
|
LAR
|
NO
|
SEA
|
DEN
|
43
|
108
|
Vegas Winners - Over 52.4% Hit Rate
Over 50% Hit Rate
CONSENSUS WINNERS
Week 16 selections are in, and only one team is in the clear majority. Chicago (at San Francisco) received 16 of 18 votes as the Bears look to secure the #3 seed with a road victory in California. Atlanta (14) comes in next as the Falcons are on the road in Carolina, but with the big letdown for the Panthers after the loss to the Saints and news that Cam Newton is done for the year, it is clear why most everyone favors the Falcons getting points. Three teams (Miami, Denver and the Jets) received 13 votes while three more (Indianapolis, Pittsburgh and Kansas City) received 12 this week. Five teams garnered 11 picks, with Washington, Buffalo and Minnesota all on the road getting favoritism by the staff. Three games are relatively close with Baltimore, Philadelphia and the Cardinals receiving 10 votes for Week 16. In all, seven underdogs were majority picks (led by Atlanta) and 10 road teams were favored by the staff. If things break right, it could be a strong week - or a lump of coal in the stocking. Check back next week for our final week of the regular season!
ODDS AND ENDS
There are just two weeks left in the regular season, and the next set of picks are due by Wednesday night (Tuesday this week!). Most of the staff would agree that picking this weekend's games on Wednesday night is very difficult because you don't have much information about injuries and practice. If your league allows you to pick the later games separate from the rest, take advantage of it and make your Sunday and Monday picks as close to the weekend as possible.
A reminder that these picks are against the Las Vegas lines – so getting above 50% is respectable, above 53% gets you into the profitable zone (accounting for the Las Vegas house odds of taking 10% of every losing wager) – and anything above 60% is outstanding. That may sound easy enough, but it is much, much harder than it might seem.
Good luck this weekend!
Questions, suggestions, and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com