Against The Spread Pool: Week 15 - Footballguys

Photo: Joe Nicholson, USA Today Sports

Over the past few years, we have given the subscribers of Footballguys.com the Staff Confidence Pool Challenge, where numerous staffers try and pick the winners each week with a confidence ranking, and Jeff Pasquino’s “For The Win” column where Jeff attempts to pick each and every NFL game against the Las Vegas spread. Both of these have been very popular features, so this year Footballguys is proud to bring you the combination of the two. The Footballguys.com Staff Against the Spread Pool Challenge. Multiple staff members (18) will pick the winner of each NFL game against the Las Vegas line. As a tie-breaker, the person who is closest to the total points scored on the last Monday Night game will be the winner. Winners will be announced from week to week and the best overall record will be crowned Against the Spread Champion. Picks and ranks are due on Wednesday, so any late-breaking news may not be reflected in the choices.

Please note, that this contest should NOT be viewed as direct sports wagering advice, especially later in the season. Since the staff is trying to beat one another, picks may be made to go against the grain in an attempt to try and catch up in the standings. This example of game theory is more in tune towards playing a contest such as this - so again, do not use these picks as direct advice towards which games to pick each and every week. Rather, use these picks to see the top choices each week, especially by the staff members towards the top of the standings.

LAST WEEK'S RESULTS

Here are the results from last week:

Vegas Winners - Over 52.4% Hit Rate
Over 50% Hit Rate

NFL Week 14 was not the best week for the staff, as the best record for the week was just 9-7, spread across four staffers. Jeff Haseley (43) edged out Bear Heiser (44), Andrew Garda (50) and Phil Alexander (46) as his total was the lowest, so he was closest to the 21-7 Seattle-Minnesota game total. o, most everyone went 8-8 or better. Eight staffers went 8-8 and three more went 7-9, which made Week 14 pretty much a washout across the board. The staff was greatly impacted by the Eagles' loss by a touchdown in overtime (15 losses), which offset the Seattle (15 picks) cover. Kansas City (14) and Houston (14) both lost against the spread (and for the Texans, outright) and the Chargers (13) also did not score enough to cover the line, so most of the majority picks were incorrect for the week. The staff collectively went 138-150 (47.9%), similar to the overall rate and record (1,874-2,062 and 47.6%).

Checking the overall standings, the tough week pushed the number of winning records across the group down to just seven staff members, as it now takes 105 wins to top the 50% record for the season. Four of the seven staffers are beating the Las Vegas success rate needed to win overall (52.4% or better), with Jeff Haseley (114) just a few games ahead of Alex Miglio (111), Phil Alexander (110) and Aaron Rudnicki (109). Only three weeks of the NFL regular season remains, so time is running out for the rest of the staff to catch the leaders.

THIS WEEK'S PICKS

Here are the picks for this week:

Vegas Winners - Over 52.4% Hit Rate
Over 50% Hit Rate

CONSENSUS WINNERS

Week 15 picks are in, and only a few teams have more than a two-thirds vote in their favor. Seattle leads the pack with 15 votes as the Seahawks head to San Francisco, while Buffalo (14) and Chicago (13) are two home favorites that are in the Top 3 for picks for this week. Six teams received 12 votes, with just two favorites (Houston at the Jets, Rams hosting the Eagles) and four road underdogs: Cleveland (at Denver), Miami (at Minnesota), Dallas (at the Colts) and Tampa Bay (at Baltimore). Ten road teams were favored by the staff, and seven underdogs this week. Not sure if this reflects the recent chaotic results for the NFL over the past two weeks, but the staff seems to be going with the points much more in Week 15. Jacksonville (11) is a home favorite the staff is mostly on, while six games are very close calls with four favorites (Kansas City, Atlanta, New Orleans in Carolina and New England in Pittsburgh) and two road underdogs (Oakland in Cincinnati, Tennessee at the Giants) all getting 10 votes. Once again this could be an interesting week for the staff if all the picks play out in their collective favor for this slate. As usual, it will be very fun and entertaining to check the results come next Tuesday.

ODDS AND ENDS

There are just three weeks left in the regular season, and the next set of picks are due by Wednesday night (Tuesday this week!). Most of the staff would agree that picking this weekend's games on Wednesday night is very difficult because you don't have much information about injuries and practice. If your league allows you to pick the later games separate from the rest, take advantage of it and make your Sunday and Monday picks as close to the weekend as possible.

A reminder that these picks are against the Las Vegas lines – so getting above 50% is respectable, above 53% gets you into the profitable zone (accounting for the Las Vegas house odds of taking 10% of every losing wager) – and anything above 60% is outstanding. That may sound easy enough, but it is much, much harder than it might seem.

Good luck this weekend!

Questions, suggestions, and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com

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