Against The Spread Pool: Week 14 - Footballguys

Photo: USA Today Sports

Over the past few years, we have given the subscribers of Footballguys.com the Staff Confidence Pool Challenge, where numerous staffers try and pick the winners each week with a confidence ranking, and Jeff Pasquino’s “For The Win” column where Jeff attempts to pick each and every NFL game against the Las Vegas spread. Both of these have been very popular features, so this year Footballguys is proud to bring you the combination of the two. The Footballguys.com Staff Against the Spread Pool Challenge. Multiple staff members (18) will pick the winner of each NFL game against the Las Vegas line. As a tie-breaker, the person who is closest to the total points scored on the last Monday Night game will be the winner. Winners will be announced from week to week and the best overall record will be crowned Against the Spread Champion. Picks and ranks are due on Wednesday, so any late-breaking news may not be reflected in the choices.

Please note, that this contest should NOT be viewed as direct sports wagering advice, especially later in the season. Since the staff is trying to beat one another, picks may be made to go against the grain in an attempt to try and catch up in the standings. This example of game theory is more in tune towards playing a contest such as this - so again, do not use these picks as direct advice towards which games to pick each and every week. Rather, use these picks to see the top choices each week, especially by the staff members towards the top of the standings.

LAST WEEK'S RESULTS

Here are the results from last week:

Vegas Winners - Over 52.4% Hit Rate
Over 50% Hit Rate

NFL Week 13 was a good week for the staff, as most everyone went 8-8 or better. Aaron Rudnicki and Andy Hicks both went 12-4 on a wild weekend full of upsets, but Aaron's tiebreaker total score (44) was just three points off of the 28-13 Eagles win on Monday Night Football. Alex Miglio was just one pick back at 11-5 and five more staffers finished at 10-6. The staff nailed their two larger majority picks, going 16-2 on both the Broncos and Rams. The staff had a great week collectively, going 157-113 (58.1%) for the week. Losses by the Colts (14 picks), Bears (14), Chiefs (14) and Panthers (12) were nicely offset by wins for Houston (14), Arizona (14), Seattle (13), Philadelphia (13) and Buffalo (12). The staff overall raised the total overall record to 1,736-1,896 (47.8%), inching closer to that respectable 50% win rate.

Checking the overall standings, nine staffers now have winning records (over 50%) for the year with 97 or more wins out of 192 contests through 13 weeks. Four of the nine staffers are beating the Las Vegas success rate needed to win overall (52.4% or better), with Jeff Haseley (105) just a few games ahead of Alex Miglio (103), Aaron Rudnicki (101) and Phil Alexander (101). Only four weeks of the NFL regular season remains, so time is running out for the rest of the staff to catch the leaders.

THIS WEEK'S PICKS

Here are the picks for this week:

Vegas Winners - Over 52.4% Hit Rate
Over 50% Hit Rate

CONSENSUS WINNERS

Week 13 picks are in, and we have a team where the entire staff is on board. All 18 picks are on the Giants (+1.5) at Washington this week, and with Mark Sanchez starting for Washington and the Las Vegas line now putting the Giants as a road favorite by 3.5 points, this is no surprise. Two teams are also clear strong consensus picks, as both Philadelphia (underdog at Dallas) and Seattle (hosting the Vikings on Monday Night Football) received 15 of 18 picks this week. Two additional teams are just behind at 14 picks with two home teams in Kansas City (hosting the Ravens) and Houston (vs. the Colts). Two more home favorites received 13 votes with the Bills (vs. Jets) and the Chargers (vs. Cincinnati). Denver is a road favorite at the 49ers and the Broncos received 12 votes from the staff this week. Closer calls include two underdogs with 11 picks in Cleveland (hosting Carolina) and Oakland (at Pittsburgh). It appears that the staff thinks that 11.5 points are too many for the Steelers to cover. Tennessee (10) hosting Jacksonville, Atlanta (10) as a road underdog in Green Bay, New Orleans (10) in Tampa and Miami (10) as a home underdog to New England all received slight favor from the staff, but all four games are 10-8 splits. Two 9-9 splits finish out the Week 14 list as the staff are completely torn over Detroit at Arizona and the Rams at Chicago. This could absolutely be an interesting week for the staff if all the picks play out in their collective favor for this slate. As usual, it will be very fun and entertaining to check the results come next Tuesday.

ODDS AND ENDS

There are just four weeks left in the regular season, and the next set of picks are due by Wednesday night (Tuesday this week!). Most of the staff would agree that picking this weekend's games on Wednesday night is very difficult because you don't have much information about injuries and practice. If your league allows you to pick the later games separate from the rest, take advantage of it and make your Sunday and Monday picks as close to the weekend as possible.

A reminder that these picks are against the Las Vegas lines – so getting above 50% is respectable, above 53% gets you into the profitable zone (accounting for the Las Vegas house odds of taking 10% of every losing wager) – and anything above 60% is outstanding. That may sound easy enough, but it is much, much harder than it might seem.

Good luck this weekend!

Questions, suggestions, and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com

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