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Over the past few years, we have given the subscribers of Footballguys.com the Staff Confidence Pool Challenge, where numerous staffers try and pick the winners each week with a confidence ranking, and Jeff Pasquino’s “For The Win” column where Jeff attempts to pick each and every NFL game against the Las Vegas spread. Both of these have been very popular features, so this year Footballguys is proud to bring you the combination of the two. The Footballguys.com Staff Against the Spread Pool Challenge. Multiple staff members (18) will pick the winner of each NFL game against the Las Vegas line. As a tie-breaker, the person who is closest to the total points scored on the last Monday Night game will be the winner. Winners will be announced from week to week and the best overall record will be crowned Against the Spread Champion. Picks and ranks are due on Wednesday, so any late-breaking news may not be reflected in the choices.
Please note, that this contest should NOT be viewed as direct sports wagering advice, especially later in the season. Since the staff is trying to beat one another, picks may be made to go against the grain in an attempt to try and catch up in the standings. This example of game theory is more in tune towards playing a contest such as this - so again, do not use these picks as direct advice towards which games to pick each and every week. Rather, use these picks to see the top choices each week, especially by the staff members towards the top of the standings.
LAST WEEK'S RESULTS
Here are the results from last week:
Road Team:
|
CHI
|
WAS
|
ATL
|
SEA
|
NYG
|
OAK
|
NE
|
CLE
|
SF
|
JAC
|
ARI
|
MIA
|
PIT
|
GB
|
TEN
|
|
|
|
Home Team:
|
DET
|
DAL
|
NO
|
CAR
|
PHI
|
BAL
|
NYJ
|
CIN
|
TB
|
BUF
|
LAC
|
IND
|
DEN
|
MIN
|
HOU
|
|
|
|
Favorite:
|
CHI
|
DAL
|
NO
|
CAR
|
PHI
|
BAL
|
NE
|
CIN
|
TB
|
JAC
|
LAC
|
IND
|
PIT
|
MIN
|
HOU
|
|
|
|
Point Spread:
|
-4.5
|
-7.5
|
-13.5
|
-3.5
|
-6.5
|
-10.5
|
-9.5
|
-3.5
|
-3.5
|
-3.5
|
-12.5
|
-9.5
|
-3.5
|
-3.5
|
-6.5
|
|
|
|
Staffer
|
The Picks
|
MNF
|
LW
|
Total
|
||||||||||||||
Jeff Pasquino
|
CHI
|
DAL
|
NO
|
SEA
|
NYG
|
BAL
|
NE
|
CLE
|
TB
|
BUF
|
LAC
|
IND
|
PIT
|
MIN
|
HOU
|
43
|
13
|
89
|
Dave Larkin
|
CHI
|
DAL
|
ATL
|
SEA
|
NYG
|
BAL
|
NE
|
CLE
|
TB
|
BUF
|
ARI
|
IND
|
DEN
|
GB
|
HOU
|
49
|
11
|
90
|
Mark Wimer
|
CHI
|
DAL
|
NO
|
CAR
|
NYG
|
BAL
|
NE
|
CLE
|
SF
|
BUF
|
LAC
|
IND
|
PIT
|
MIN
|
HOU
|
48
|
11
|
84
|
James Brimacombe
|
CHI
|
DAL
|
NO
|
CAR
|
PHI
|
BAL
|
NE
|
CLE
|
TB
|
JAC
|
LAC
|
IND
|
DEN
|
GB
|
HOU
|
44
|
10
|
93
|
Keith Roberts
|
CHI
|
DAL
|
ATL
|
CAR
|
NYG
|
BAL
|
NE
|
CLE
|
TB
|
JAC
|
LAC
|
IND
|
PIT
|
MIN
|
HOU
|
39
|
10
|
88
|
Matt Bitonti
|
DET
|
WAS
|
NO
|
SEA
|
NYG
|
BAL
|
NE
|
CLE
|
SF
|
BUF
|
LAC
|
IND
|
DEN
|
GB
|
HOU
|
55
|
10
|
81
|
Andrew Garda
|
CHI
|
DAL
|
NO
|
CAR
|
NYG
|
BAL
|
NE
|
CIN
|
TB
|
JAC
|
ARI
|
IND
|
PIT
|
MIN
|
HOU
|
45
|
9
|
76
|
Bear Heiser
|
CHI
|
DAL
|
NO
|
SEA
|
NYG
|
OAK
|
NE
|
CLE
|
SF
|
JAC
|
LAC
|
IND
|
PIT
|
GB
|
HOU
|
54
|
9
|
84
|
Jeff Haseley
|
DET
|
WAS
|
NO
|
CAR
|
PHI
|
BAL
|
NE
|
CLE
|
TB
|
BUF
|
LAC
|
MIA
|
PIT
|
MIN
|
TEN
|
43
|
9
|
97
|
Aaron Rudnicki
|
DET
|
WAS
|
ATL
|
SEA
|
NYG
|
BAL
|
NE
|
CLE
|
SF
|
JAC
|
LAC
|
IND
|
DEN
|
GB
|
HOU
|
40
|
8
|
89
|
Devin Knotts
|
DET
|
WAS
|
ATL
|
CAR
|
NYG
|
OAK
|
NE
|
CLE
|
TB
|
JAC
|
LAC
|
IND
|
DEN
|
MIN
|
HOU
|
44
|
8
|
89
|
Phil Alexander
|
DET
|
WAS
|
ATL
|
SEA
|
PHI
|
OAK
|
NE
|
CLE
|
TB
|
BUF
|
LAC
|
MIA
|
DEN
|
GB
|
TEN
|
45
|
8
|
94
|
Danny Tuccitto
|
DET
|
DAL
|
ATL
|
SEA
|
PHI
|
BAL
|
NYJ
|
CIN
|
SF
|
BUF
|
ARI
|
MIA
|
DEN
|
MIN
|
TEN
|
49
|
7
|
86
|
Andy Hicks
|
CHI
|
WAS
|
ATL
|
SEA
|
PHI
|
OAK
|
NE
|
CLE
|
SF
|
JAC
|
ARI
|
IND
|
PIT
|
MIN
|
HOU
|
39
|
6
|
85
|
Justin Howe
|
DET
|
DAL
|
ATL
|
CAR
|
PHI
|
OAK
|
NYJ
|
CLE
|
SF
|
BUF
|
LAC
|
MIA
|
DEN
|
GB
|
TEN
|
48
|
6
|
88
|
William Grant
|
DET
|
DAL
|
ATL
|
CAR
|
PHI
|
OAK
|
NE
|
CLE
|
SF
|
JAC
|
LAC
|
MIA
|
PIT
|
GB
|
HOU
|
48
|
6
|
86
|
Alessandro Miglio
|
DET
|
WAS
|
ATL
|
CAR
|
NYG
|
OAK
|
NYJ
|
CIN
|
TB
|
JAC
|
ARI
|
MIA
|
PIT
|
MIN
|
HOU
|
49
|
5
|
92
|
Sean Settle
|
CHI
|
WAS
|
ATL
|
CAR
|
PHI
|
OAK
|
NE
|
CIN
|
TB
|
JAC
|
ARI
|
IND
|
PIT
|
GB
|
HOU
|
48
|
4
|
88
|
Vegas Winners - Over 52.4% Hit Rate
Over 50% Hit Rate
NFL Week 12 was a great week for yours truly (Jeff Pasquino), who nailed 13 of 15 games against the spread to win the week going away. The staff had a great week collectively, going 150-120 (55.6%) for the week. Only the thin win by the Colts cost the staff significantly (12 losses) as wins by the Patriots (15), Browns (14), Texans (14) and Chargers (12) helped the staff to a strong overall performance. The staff overall raised the total overall record to 1,579-1,749 (47.9%), inching closer to that respectable 50% win rate.
Checking the overall standings, eight staffers now have winning records (over 50%) for the year with 89 or more wins out of 176 contests through 12 weeks. Only three of the eight staffers are beating the Las Vegas success rate needed to win overall (52.4% or better), with Jeff Haseley (97) just a few games ahead of Phil Alexander (94) and James Brimacombe (93). Only five weeks of the season remains, so time is running out for the rest of the staff to catch the leaders.
THIS WEEK'S PICKS
Here are the picks for this week:
Road Team:
|
NO
|
IND
|
CLE
|
BUF
|
ARI
|
CAR
|
BAL
|
CHI
|
DEN
|
LAR
|
NYJ
|
KC
|
SF
|
MIN
|
LAC
|
WAS
|
|
|
Home Team:
|
DAL
|
JAC
|
HOU
|
MIA
|
GB
|
TB
|
ATL
|
NYG
|
CIN
|
DET
|
TEN
|
OAK
|
SEA
|
NE
|
PIT
|
PHI
|
|
|
Favorite:
|
NO
|
IND
|
HOU
|
MIA
|
GB
|
CAR
|
BAL
|
CHI
|
DEN
|
LAR
|
TEN
|
KC
|
SEA
|
NE
|
PIT
|
PHI
|
|
|
Point Spread:
|
-7.5
|
-3.5
|
-4.5
|
-5.5
|
-14.5
|
-3.5
|
-1.5
|
-4.5
|
-3.5
|
-9.5
|
-9.5
|
-15.5
|
-10.5
|
-6.5
|
-3.5
|
-6.5
|
|
|
Staffer
|
The Picks
|
MNF
|
Year
|
|||||||||||||||
Jeff Pasquino
|
NO
|
IND
|
HOU
|
BUF
|
GB
|
CAR
|
BAL
|
CHI
|
DEN
|
LAR
|
TEN
|
KC
|
SEA
|
NE
|
PIT
|
PHI
|
47
|
89
|
Aaron Rudnicki
|
DAL
|
IND
|
HOU
|
BUF
|
ARI
|
TB
|
BAL
|
CHI
|
DEN
|
LAR
|
NYJ
|
KC
|
SEA
|
MIN
|
LAC
|
PHI
|
44
|
89
|
Alessandro Miglio
|
DAL
|
JAC
|
HOU
|
BUF
|
ARI
|
TB
|
ATL
|
CHI
|
DEN
|
DET
|
NYJ
|
OAK
|
SF
|
NE
|
PIT
|
PHI
|
51
|
92
|
Andrew Garda
|
NO
|
IND
|
HOU
|
MIA
|
ARI
|
CAR
|
BAL
|
CHI
|
DEN
|
LAR
|
NYJ
|
KC
|
SEA
|
NE
|
PIT
|
PHI
|
45
|
76
|
Andy Hicks
|
DAL
|
JAC
|
HOU
|
BUF
|
ARI
|
CAR
|
BAL
|
CHI
|
DEN
|
LAR
|
NYJ
|
KC
|
SEA
|
NE
|
PIT
|
PHI
|
61
|
85
|
Bear Heiser
|
DAL
|
IND
|
HOU
|
BUF
|
ARI
|
CAR
|
ATL
|
CHI
|
DEN
|
LAR
|
TEN
|
KC
|
SEA
|
MIN
|
PIT
|
PHI
|
44
|
84
|
Danny Tuccitto
|
DAL
|
IND
|
HOU
|
BUF
|
ARI
|
TB
|
ATL
|
NYG
|
DEN
|
LAR
|
NYJ
|
KC
|
SF
|
MIN
|
PIT
|
PHI
|
49
|
86
|
Dave Larkin
|
NO
|
IND
|
HOU
|
BUF
|
ARI
|
CAR
|
BAL
|
CHI
|
DEN
|
LAR
|
NYJ
|
OAK
|
SF
|
MIN
|
LAC
|
PHI
|
37
|
90
|
Devin Knotts
|
NO
|
IND
|
CLE
|
MIA
|
ARI
|
TB
|
ATL
|
NYG
|
CIN
|
LAR
|
NYJ
|
KC
|
SF
|
NE
|
LAC
|
WAS
|
45
|
89
|
James Brimacombe
|
NO
|
JAC
|
CLE
|
BUF
|
GB
|
CAR
|
ATL
|
CHI
|
DEN
|
LAR
|
TEN
|
KC
|
SEA
|
MIN
|
PIT
|
PHI
|
47
|
93
|
Jeff Haseley
|
DAL
|
JAC
|
HOU
|
BUF
|
ARI
|
CAR
|
ATL
|
CHI
|
CIN
|
LAR
|
TEN
|
KC
|
SEA
|
NE
|
PIT
|
WAS
|
43
|
97
|
Justin Howe
|
DAL
|
IND
|
HOU
|
BUF
|
ARI
|
CAR
|
BAL
|
CHI
|
DEN
|
LAR
|
NYJ
|
KC
|
SEA
|
MIN
|
LAC
|
WAS
|
45
|
88
|
Keith Roberts
|
NO
|
IND
|
CLE
|
MIA
|
ARI
|
CAR
|
ATL
|
NYG
|
DEN
|
LAR
|
TEN
|
KC
|
SEA
|
MIN
|
PIT
|
PHI
|
44
|
88
|
Mark Wimer
|
NO
|
IND
|
HOU
|
MIA
|
GB
|
CAR
|
BAL
|
CHI
|
DEN
|
LAR
|
TEN
|
KC
|
SEA
|
MIN
|
LAC
|
PHI
|
42
|
84
|
Matt Bitonti
|
NO
|
IND
|
HOU
|
BUF
|
ARI
|
TB
|
ATL
|
CHI
|
DEN
|
DET
|
TEN
|
OAK
|
SEA
|
NE
|
LAC
|
PHI
|
58
|
81
|
Phil Alexander
|
DAL
|
IND
|
CLE
|
MIA
|
GB
|
TB
|
ATL
|
NYG
|
DEN
|
LAR
|
TEN
|
KC
|
SEA
|
MIN
|
LAC
|
WAS
|
43
|
94
|
Sean Settle
|
NO
|
IND
|
HOU
|
BUF
|
ARI
|
CAR
|
ATL
|
CHI
|
DEN
|
LAR
|
NYJ
|
OAK
|
SF
|
MIN
|
PIT
|
PHI
|
44
|
88
|
William Grant
|
NO
|
IND
|
HOU
|
MIA
|
ARI
|
CAR
|
BAL
|
CHI
|
DEN
|
LAR
|
NYJ
|
KC
|
SEA
|
NE
|
PIT
|
WAS
|
46
|
86
|
CONSENSUS WINNERS
Week 13 picks are in, and there are some rather interesting trends for sure this week. Two teams are clear strong consensus picks, as both Denver (at Cincinnati) and the Los Angeles Rams (at Detriot) received 16 of 18 picks this week. The fact that both of these teams are on the road and are also favorites is not lost upon me, as that is an overwhelming trend for Week 13: 11 of 16 teams that are majority picks are on the road, and 11 of 16 majority picks are favorites. Week 13 is the first of the five final weeks with all the teams in action (no more byes), so bigger trends like these are very noteworthy. Five teams received 14 votes this week - Indianapolis (at Jacksonville), Houston (hosting Cleveland), Arizona (a big underdog in Green Bay), Chicago (at the Giants) and the Chiefs (at Oakland). The Arizona pick stands out as this is clearly a point spread play (14.5 points for the Cardinals) - but Arizona has been terrible of late, scoring over 17 points just twice in their past six games with a peak of 21 against Oakland. Green Bay scoring 30+ with Arizona under 14 is a definite possibility, especially in freezing and snowy weather expected. Two more home favorites received 13 votes (Seattle hosting the 49ers, Eagles hosting Washington), while two road teams were chosen 12 times (Buffalo as an underdog in Miami, Carolina at Tampa Bay). Pittsburgh had 11 votes to beat the Chargers at home on Sunday Night Football by more than a field goal, while four teams had a slight majority with 10 votes (New Orleans at Dallas on Thursday, Atlanta hosting Baltimore as a slight underdog, the Jets as a road underdog in Tennessee and Minnesota as a road underdog at New England. This could absolutely be an interesting week for the staff if all the picks play out in their collective favor for this slate. As usual, it will be very fun and entertaining to check the results come next Tuesday.
ODDS AND ENDS
There are just five weeks left in the regular season, and the next set of picks are due by Wednesday night (Tuesday this week!). Most of the staff would agree that picking this weekend's games on Wednesday night is very difficult because you don't have much information about injuries and practice. If your league allows you to pick the later games separate from the rest, take advantage of it and make your Sunday and Monday picks as close to the weekend as possible.
A reminder that these picks are against the Las Vegas lines – so getting above 50% is respectable, above 53% gets you into the profitable zone (accounting for the Las Vegas house odds of taking 10% of every losing wager) – and anything above 60% is outstanding. That may sound easy enough, but it is much, much harder than it might seem.
Good luck this weekend!
Questions, suggestions, and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com