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Over the past few years, we have given the subscribers of Footballguys.com the Staff Confidence Pool Challenge, where numerous staffers try and pick the winners each week with a confidence ranking, and Jeff Pasquino’s “For The Win” column where Jeff attempts to pick each and every NFL game against the Las Vegas spread. Both of these have been very popular features, so this year Footballguys is proud to bring you the combination of the two. The Footballguys.com Staff Against the Spread Pool Challenge. Multiple staff members (18) will pick the winner of each NFL game against the Las Vegas line. As a tie-breaker, the person who is closest to the total points scored on the last Monday Night game will be the winner. Winners will be announced from week to week and the best overall record will be crowned Against the Spread Champion. Picks and ranks are due on Wednesday, so any late-breaking news may not be reflected in the choices.
Please note, that this contest should NOT be viewed as direct sports wagering advice, especially later in the season. Since the staff is trying to beat one another, picks may be made to go against the grain in an attempt to try and catch up in the standings. This example of game theory is more in tune towards playing a contest such as this - so again, do not use these picks as direct advice towards which games to pick each and every week. Rather, use these picks to see the top choices each week, especially by the staff members towards the top of the standings.
LAST WEEK'S RESULTS
Here are the results from last week:
Road Team:
|
MIA
|
PHI
|
SEA
|
TB
|
WAS
|
NYJ
|
BAL
|
CLE
|
DEN
|
IND
|
GB
|
SF
|
NO
|
NE
|
|||
Home Team:
|
HOU
|
JAC
|
DET
|
CIN
|
NYG
|
CHI
|
CAR
|
PIT
|
KC
|
OAK
|
LAR
|
ARI
|
MIN
|
BUF
|
|||
Favorite:
|
HOU
|
PHI
|
DET
|
CIN
|
WAS
|
CHI
|
BAL
|
PIT
|
KC
|
IND
|
LAR
|
ARI
|
MIN
|
NE
|
|||
Point Spread:
|
-7.5
|
-2.5
|
-3.5
|
-4.5
|
-1.5
|
-7.5
|
-1.5
|
-8.5
|
-10.5
|
-3.5
|
-9.5
|
-1.5
|
-1.5
|
-13.5
|
|||
Staffer
|
The Picks
|
MNF
|
LW
|
Total
|
|||||||||||||
Keith Roberts
|
HOU
|
PHI
|
SEA
|
CIN
|
WAS
|
CHI
|
BAL
|
PIT
|
KC
|
IND
|
GB
|
ARI
|
NO
|
BUF
|
45
|
10
|
59
|
Aaron Rudnicki
|
MIA
|
PHI
|
SEA
|
CIN
|
WAS
|
NYJ
|
CAR
|
CLE
|
DEN
|
IND
|
GB
|
SF
|
NO
|
NE
|
44
|
9
|
57
|
Danny Tuccitto
|
MIA
|
JAC
|
SEA
|
TB
|
NYG
|
NYJ
|
CAR
|
PIT
|
DEN
|
IND
|
GB
|
SF
|
NO
|
NE
|
49
|
9
|
57
|
Sean Settle
|
MIA
|
PHI
|
DET
|
CIN
|
WAS
|
CHI
|
CAR
|
CLE
|
DEN
|
IND
|
GB
|
ARI
|
MIN
|
NE
|
52
|
9
|
60
|
Jeff Pasquino
|
HOU
|
PHI
|
DET
|
CIN
|
WAS
|
CHI
|
BAL
|
PIT
|
KC
|
IND
|
LAR
|
ARI
|
MIN
|
NE
|
47
|
8
|
56
|
Justin Howe
|
MIA
|
PHI
|
SEA
|
CIN
|
NYG
|
CHI
|
CAR
|
CLE
|
DEN
|
IND
|
GB
|
ARI
|
MIN
|
BUF
|
47
|
8
|
59
|
Alessandro Miglio
|
MIA
|
PHI
|
DET
|
CIN
|
NYG
|
CHI
|
CAR
|
CLE
|
DEN
|
OAK
|
GB
|
ARI
|
MIN
|
NE
|
52
|
7
|
67
|
Bear Heiser
|
MIA
|
PHI
|
DET
|
CIN
|
NYG
|
CHI
|
CAR
|
PIT
|
KC
|
IND
|
GB
|
SF
|
MIN
|
NE
|
56
|
7
|
57
|
Dave Larkin
|
MIA
|
PHI
|
SEA
|
CIN
|
WAS
|
CHI
|
CAR
|
CLE
|
KC
|
OAK
|
GB
|
SF
|
MIN
|
NE
|
41
|
7
|
61
|
Jeff Haseley
|
MIA
|
PHI
|
SEA
|
TB
|
WAS
|
NYJ
|
CAR
|
PIT
|
KC
|
OAK
|
LAR
|
ARI
|
MIN
|
BUF
|
42
|
7
|
65
|
Mark Wimer
|
MIA
|
PHI
|
DET
|
CIN
|
WAS
|
CHI
|
CAR
|
CLE
|
KC
|
IND
|
LAR
|
ARI
|
MIN
|
NE
|
41
|
7
|
53
|
Matt Bitonti
|
MIA
|
PHI
|
SEA
|
TB
|
WAS
|
NYJ
|
BAL
|
PIT
|
KC
|
IND
|
LAR
|
SF
|
MIN
|
NE
|
46
|
7
|
52
|
Phil Alexander
|
MIA
|
PHI
|
SEA
|
CIN
|
NYG
|
NYJ
|
BAL
|
PIT
|
KC
|
OAK
|
GB
|
ARI
|
NO
|
NE
|
35
|
7
|
65
|
William Grant
|
MIA
|
PHI
|
SEA
|
CIN
|
NYG
|
CHI
|
CAR
|
PIT
|
KC
|
IND
|
LAR
|
SF
|
MIN
|
NE
|
48
|
7
|
59
|
Andrew Garda
|
MIA
|
PHI
|
DET
|
CIN
|
WAS
|
CHI
|
CAR
|
CLE
|
KC
|
IND
|
LAR
|
SF
|
MIN
|
NE
|
55
|
6
|
52
|
James Brimacombe
|
MIA
|
PHI
|
DET
|
CIN
|
NYG
|
CHI
|
CAR
|
CLE
|
KC
|
OAK
|
GB
|
ARI
|
MIN
|
NE
|
49
|
6
|
61
|
Andy Hicks
|
MIA
|
JAC
|
SEA
|
CIN
|
WAS
|
NYJ
|
BAL
|
CLE
|
KC
|
OAK
|
LAR
|
SF
|
NO
|
NE
|
50
|
4
|
58
|
Devin Knotts
|
MIA
|
JAC
|
DET
|
CIN
|
WAS
|
NYJ
|
BAL
|
CLE
|
KC
|
OAK
|
LAR
|
SF
|
MIN
|
NE
|
47
|
2
|
61
|
Vegas Winners - Over 52.8% Hit Rate
Over 50% Hit Rate
NFL Week 8 was a close battle, with Keith Roberts finishing atop the weekly standings with 10 out of 14 correct picks for the week. Aaron Rudnicki, Danny Tuccitto and Sean Settle all tied with nine correct selections for Week 8. The staff overall was slightly more correct than not, winning big on New England (15) and Philadelphia (15) but losing a number of picks with Cincinnati (15) and Miami (16) costing the staff the most. The staff ended the week at 127-125 (50.4%), raising the overall staff record to 1,059-1,224 (46.4%).
Checking the overall standings, six staffers have winning records (over 50%) for the year with 61 or more wins out of 121 contests through eight weeks. Three of the six staffers are beating the Las Vegas success rate needed to win overall (52.3% or better), with Alex Miglio (67) slightly leading Phil Alexander (65) and Jeff Haseley (65) in a close race. Just over 47% of the season is behind us, so there is plenty of time for the staff to catch up the rest of the way.
THIS WEEK'S PICKS
Here are the picks for this week:
Road Team:
|
OAK
|
ATL
|
KC
|
DET
|
CHI
|
PIT
|
TB
|
NYJ
|
HOU
|
LAC
|
LAR
|
GB
|
TEN
|
|
Home Team:
|
SF
|
WAS
|
CLE
|
MIN
|
BUF
|
BAL
|
CAR
|
MIA
|
DEN
|
SEA
|
NO
|
NE
|
DAL
|
|
Favorite:
|
SF
|
WAS
|
KC
|
MIN
|
CHI
|
BAL
|
CAR
|
MIA
|
DEN
|
SEA
|
NO
|
NE
|
DAL
|
|
Point Spread:
|
-3.5
|
-1.5
|
-8.5
|
-5.5
|
-5.5
|
-3.5
|
-6.5
|
-3.5
|
-2.5
|
-1.5
|
-1.5
|
-6.5
|
-6.5
|
|
Staffer
|
The Picks
|
MNF
|
||||||||||||
Jeff Pasquino
|
OAK
|
ATL
|
KC
|
MIN
|
CHI
|
BAL
|
CAR
|
NYJ
|
HOU
|
LAC
|
LAR
|
NE
|
TEN
|
43
|
Aaron Rudnicki
|
OAK
|
ATL
|
CLE
|
MIN
|
CHI
|
PIT
|
TB
|
NYJ
|
HOU
|
SEA
|
NO
|
GB
|
TEN
|
40
|
Alex Miglio
|
SF
|
WAS
|
KC
|
MIN
|
BUF
|
PIT
|
TB
|
MIA
|
DEN
|
SEA
|
LAR
|
NE
|
TEN
|
45
|
Andy Hicks
|
SF
|
WAS
|
CLE
|
DET
|
CHI
|
BAL
|
TB
|
MIA
|
DEN
|
LAC
|
LAR
|
GB
|
TEN
|
44
|
Bear Heiser
|
OAK
|
ATL
|
KC
|
DET
|
CHI
|
PIT
|
TB
|
MIA
|
HOU
|
LAC
|
LAR
|
GB
|
TEN
|
46
|
Danny Tuccitto
|
OAK
|
WAS
|
CLE
|
DET
|
BUF
|
PIT
|
CAR
|
NYJ
|
HOU
|
SEA
|
NO
|
NE
|
TEN
|
49
|
Dave Larkin
|
OAK
|
WAS
|
KC
|
DET
|
CHI
|
PIT
|
TB
|
MIA
|
DEN
|
LAC
|
NO
|
GB
|
TEN
|
40
|
Devin Knotts
|
OAK
|
WAS
|
CLE
|
MIN
|
CHI
|
PIT
|
CAR
|
MIA
|
DEN
|
LAC
|
LAR
|
NE
|
DAL
|
44
|
James Brimacombe
|
OAK
|
ATL
|
KC
|
DET
|
CHI
|
PIT
|
TB
|
NYJ
|
HOU
|
LAC
|
LAR
|
GB
|
TEN
|
47
|
Jeff Haseley
|
SF
|
WAS
|
KC
|
MIN
|
CHI
|
PIT
|
CAR
|
NYJ
|
HOU
|
SEA
|
LAR
|
NE
|
TEN
|
40
|
Keith Roberts
|
OAK
|
ATL
|
KC
|
MIN
|
CHI
|
PIT
|
CAR
|
NYJ
|
HOU
|
LAC
|
LAR
|
GB
|
DAL
|
42
|
Mark Wimer
|
SF
|
WAS
|
KC
|
DET
|
CHI
|
BAL
|
CAR
|
MIA
|
HOU
|
LAC
|
NO
|
NE
|
DAL
|
48
|
Matt Bitonti
|
SF
|
WAS
|
CLE
|
DET
|
CHI
|
PIT
|
CAR
|
NYJ
|
HOU
|
SEA
|
NO
|
GB
|
TEN
|
48
|
Sean Settle
|
OAK
|
ATL
|
KC
|
MIN
|
CHI
|
PIT
|
CAR
|
MIA
|
HOU
|
LAC
|
NO
|
NE
|
DAL
|
48
|
William Grant
|
OAK
|
WAS
|
KC
|
MIN
|
CHI
|
PIT
|
CAR
|
MIA
|
HOU
|
LAC
|
LAR
|
GB
|
TEN
|
44
|
Andrew Garda
|
OAK
|
WAS
|
KC
|
MIN
|
CHI
|
PIT
|
CAR
|
MIA
|
HOU
|
SEA
|
LAR
|
GB
|
DAL
|
45
|
Justin Howe
|
OAK
|
WAS
|
KC
|
MIN
|
CHI
|
PIT
|
TB
|
MIA
|
HOU
|
SEA
|
LAR
|
GB
|
TEN
|
44
|
Phil Alexander
|
OAK
|
ATL
|
KC
|
DET
|
BUF
|
PIT
|
CAR
|
NYJ
|
DEN
|
SEA
|
LAR
|
GB
|
TEN
|
40
|
CONSENSUS WINNERS
Week 9 looks to be a very interesting and unique week. Only four home teams were majority choices by the staff out of 13 games - and all four selections are slim majorities. Washington (11), Carolina (11), Minnesota (10) and Miami (10) are the only home squads with slight leans this week. That leaves nine contests where the road team was the majority choice, and all but two are underdogs. Chicago (15) and Kansas City (13) lead the way in selections overall, and both are road favorites by more than a touchdown at Buffalo and at Cleveland, respectively. Four underdogs join the Chiefs with 13 selections: Oakland (at San Francisco on Thursday), Pittsburgh (at Baltimore), Houston (at Denver) and Tennessee (at Dallas). The Rams (12, at New Orleans) were just one choice behind those four teams, with Green Bay (11) and the Chargers (10) joining the group of seven road underdogs that all caught the eye of the collective staff this week. This could be a big week for the staff if all the picks play out in their collective favor for the week. As usual, it will be very fun and entertaining to check the results come Tuesday.
ODDS AND ENDS
Just about half of the season is now gone, and the next set of picks are due by Wednesday night. Most of the staff would agree that picking this weekend's games on Wednesday night is very difficult because you don't have much information about injuries and practice. If your league allows you to pick the later games separate from the rest, take advantage of it and make your Sunday and Monday picks as close to the weekend as possible.
A reminder that these picks are against the Las Vegas lines – so getting above 50% is respectable, above 53% gets you into the profitable zone (accounting for the Las Vegas house odds of taking 10% of every losing wager) – and anything above 60% is outstanding. That may sound easy enough, but it is much, much harder than it might seem.
Good luck this weekend!
Questions, suggestions, and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com