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Over the past few years, we have given the subscribers of Footballguys.com the Staff Confidence Pool Challenge, where numerous staffers try and pick the winners each week with a confidence ranking, and Jeff Pasquino’s “For The Win” column where Jeff attempts to pick each and every NFL game against the Las Vegas spread. Both of these have been very popular features, so this year Footballguys is proud to bring you the combination of the two. The Footballguys.com Staff Against the Spread Pool Challenge. Multiple staff members (18) will pick the winner of each NFL game against the Las Vegas line. As a tie-breaker, the person who is closest to the total points scored on the last Monday Night game will be the winner. Winners will be announced from week to week and the best overall record will be crowned Against the Spread Champion. Picks and ranks are due on Wednesday, so any late-breaking news may not be reflected in the choices.
Please note, that this contest should NOT be viewed as direct sports wagering advice, especially later in the season. Since the staff is trying to beat one another, picks may be made to go against the grain in an attempt to try and catch up in the standings. This example of game theory is more in tune towards playing a contest such as this - so again, do not use these picks as direct advice towards which games to pick each and every week. Rather, use these picks to see the top choices each week, especially by the staff members towards the top of the standings.
LAST WEEK'S RESULTS
Here are the results from last week:
Road Team:
|
PHI
|
LAC
|
BUF
|
CAR
|
CHI
|
PIT
|
SEA
|
IND
|
ARI
|
TB
|
LAR
|
BAL
|
JAC
|
KC
|
SF
|
|
|
|
Home Team:
|
NYG
|
CLE
|
HOU
|
WAS
|
MIA
|
CIN
|
OAK
|
NYJ
|
MIN
|
ATL
|
DEN
|
TEN
|
DAL
|
NE
|
GB
|
|
|
|
Favorite:
|
PHI
|
LAC
|
HOU
|
WAS
|
CHI
|
CIN
|
SEA
|
NYJ
|
MIN
|
ATL
|
LAR
|
BAL
|
JAC
|
NE
|
GB
|
|
|
|
Point Spread:
|
-3.5
|
-1.5
|
-7.5
|
-1.5
|
-3.5
|
-2.5
|
-3.5
|
-2.5
|
-10.5
|
-3.5
|
-7.5
|
-2.5
|
-3.5
|
-3.5
|
-9.5
|
|
|
|
Staffer
|
The Picks
|
MNF
|
LW
|
Total
|
||||||||||||||
Jeff Haseley
|
PHI
|
LAC
|
BUF
|
CAR
|
MIA
|
CIN
|
SEA
|
NYJ
|
ARI
|
ATL
|
DEN
|
BAL
|
DAL
|
KC
|
SF
|
43
|
13
|
53
|
Alex Miglio
|
PHI
|
CLE
|
BUF
|
WAS
|
MIA
|
CIN
|
SEA
|
NYJ
|
ARI
|
ATL
|
LAR
|
BAL
|
JAC
|
NE
|
SF
|
49
|
10
|
52
|
Danny Tuccitto
|
NYG
|
CLE
|
BUF
|
CAR
|
MIA
|
PIT
|
OAK
|
NYJ
|
ARI
|
ATL
|
DEN
|
TEN
|
DAL
|
KC
|
SF
|
49
|
10
|
46
|
Sean Settle
|
PHI
|
LAC
|
HOU
|
CAR
|
CHI
|
PIT
|
SEA
|
NYJ
|
ARI
|
ATL
|
DEN
|
BAL
|
JAC
|
KC
|
GB
|
45
|
10
|
39
|
Jeff Pasquino
|
PHI
|
LAC
|
HOU
|
CAR
|
CHI
|
CIN
|
SEA
|
NYJ
|
MIN
|
ATL
|
LAR
|
BAL
|
JAC
|
KC
|
SF
|
43
|
8
|
41
|
Dave Larkin
|
NYG
|
LAC
|
BUF
|
CAR
|
MIA
|
CIN
|
SEA
|
IND
|
MIN
|
ATL
|
LAR
|
BAL
|
DAL
|
NE
|
SF
|
48
|
8
|
48
|
Phil Alexander
|
PHI
|
LAC
|
BUF
|
WAS
|
MIA
|
PIT
|
OAK
|
NYJ
|
ARI
|
TB
|
LAR
|
TEN
|
JAC
|
NE
|
GB
|
57
|
8
|
49
|
Andrew Garda
|
PHI
|
LAC
|
HOU
|
CAR
|
CHI
|
CIN
|
SEA
|
NYJ
|
MIN
|
ATL
|
LAR
|
BAL
|
JAC
|
KC
|
GB
|
55
|
7
|
36
|
Devin Knotts
|
NYG
|
CLE
|
HOU
|
WAS
|
MIA
|
CIN
|
OAK
|
IND
|
MIN
|
ATL
|
LAR
|
BAL
|
DAL
|
KC
|
SF
|
48
|
7
|
51
|
James Brimacombe
|
PHI
|
LAC
|
BUF
|
CAR
|
CHI
|
PIT
|
OAK
|
IND
|
MIN
|
ATL
|
DEN
|
TEN
|
JAC
|
KC
|
GB
|
50
|
7
|
46
|
Keith Roberts
|
NYG
|
LAC
|
HOU
|
CAR
|
CHI
|
PIT
|
SEA
|
NYJ
|
MIN
|
ATL
|
LAR
|
TEN
|
JAC
|
KC
|
SF
|
46
|
7
|
40
|
Matt Bitonti
|
NYG
|
LAC
|
HOU
|
CAR
|
MIA
|
CIN
|
OAK
|
NYJ
|
ARI
|
ATL
|
LAR
|
BAL
|
DAL
|
NE
|
GB
|
55
|
7
|
40
|
William Grant
|
PHI
|
LAC
|
HOU
|
CAR
|
MIA
|
CIN
|
OAK
|
NYJ
|
MIN
|
ATL
|
LAR
|
BAL
|
JAC
|
KC
|
GB
|
46
|
7
|
46
|
Aaron Rudnicki
|
NYG
|
CLE
|
HOU
|
CAR
|
CHI
|
CIN
|
OAK
|
NYJ
|
ARI
|
TB
|
DEN
|
BAL
|
JAC
|
KC
|
GB
|
43
|
5
|
42
|
Bear Heiser
|
NYG
|
LAC
|
HOU
|
CAR
|
CHI
|
PIT
|
SEA
|
IND
|
MIN
|
ATL
|
LAR
|
TEN
|
JAC
|
KC
|
GB
|
48
|
5
|
43
|
Mark Wimer
|
PHI
|
LAC
|
HOU
|
CAR
|
CHI
|
CIN
|
OAK
|
NYJ
|
MIN
|
ATL
|
LAR
|
TEN
|
JAC
|
KC
|
GB
|
52
|
5
|
40
|
Justin Howe
|
NYG
|
CLE
|
HOU
|
CAR
|
CHI
|
PIT
|
OAK
|
NYJ
|
MIN
|
ATL
|
LAR
|
TEN
|
JAC
|
KC
|
GB
|
48
|
4
|
45
|
Andy Hicks
|
PHI
|
CLE
|
HOU
|
CAR
|
CHI
|
CIN
|
OAK
|
NYJ
|
MIN
|
TB
|
LAR
|
BAL
|
JAC
|
NE
|
GB
|
58
|
3
|
46
|
Vegas Winners - Over 52.8% Hit Rate
Over 50% Hit Rate
NFL Week 6 was a runaway victory for Jeff Haseley, who had a nearly perfect week with 13 of 15 games correct. Nice job! Three other staffers were solid with 10 wins (Alex Miglio, Danny Tuccitto and Sean Settle). The staff overall struggled slightly, even with a big week for our winner, as Carolina (15), Jacksonville (13) and the Rams (13) all cost the staff significant picks. Week 6 resulted in a slightly losing week for the staff (131-139, 48.5%), but slightly raising the overall staff record to 803-948 (45.9%).
Checking the overall standings, five staffers have winning records (over 50%) for the year with 47 or more wins out of 93 contests through six weeks. Four of the five staffers are beating the Las Vegas success rate needed to win overall (52.3% or better), with Jeff Haseley (53) leading Alex Miglio (52) and Devin Knotts (51) in a close race. Less than 37% of the season is behind us, so there is plenty of time for the staff to catch up the rest of the way.
THIS WEEK'S PICKS
Here are the picks for this week:
Road Team:
|
DEN
|
TEN
|
MIN
|
CAR
|
HOU
|
CLE
|
DET
|
NE
|
BUF
|
NO
|
LAR
|
DAL
|
CIN
|
NYG
|
|
Home Team:
|
ARI
|
LAC
|
NYJ
|
PHI
|
JAC
|
TB
|
MIA
|
CHI
|
IND
|
BAL
|
SF
|
WAS
|
KC
|
ATL
|
|
Favorite:
|
DEN
|
LAC
|
MIN
|
PHI
|
JAC
|
TB
|
DET
|
NE
|
IND
|
BAL
|
LAR
|
WAS
|
KC
|
ATL
|
|
Point Spread:
|
-2.5
|
-6.5
|
-3.5
|
-4.5
|
-4.5
|
-3.5
|
-1.5
|
-3.5
|
-7.5
|
-2.5
|
-10.5
|
-1.5
|
-6.5
|
-6.5
|
|
Staffer
|
The Picks
|
MNF
|
|||||||||||||
Jeff Pasquino
|
DEN
|
LAC
|
MIN
|
PHI
|
HOU
|
TB
|
DET
|
CHI
|
IND
|
BAL
|
LAR
|
DAL
|
KC
|
ATL
|
57
|
Aaron Rudnick
|
DEN
|
LAC
|
NYJ
|
PHI
|
HOU
|
CLE
|
DET
|
CHI
|
BUF
|
NO
|
LAR
|
DAL
|
CIN
|
ATL
|
50
|
Alessandro Miglio
|
ARI
|
TEN
|
MIN
|
CAR
|
HOU
|
TB
|
MIA
|
NE
|
BUF
|
NO
|
SF
|
WAS
|
CIN
|
NYG
|
51
|
Andrew Garda
|
DEN
|
LAC
|
MIN
|
PHI
|
HOU
|
TB
|
DET
|
NE
|
IND
|
NO
|
LAR
|
WAS
|
KC
|
ATL
|
50
|
Andy Hicks
|
ARI
|
LAC
|
MIN
|
PHI
|
JAC
|
CLE
|
DET
|
NE
|
IND
|
NO
|
LAR
|
DAL
|
CIN
|
NYG
|
65
|
Bear Heiser
|
DEN
|
LAC
|
MIN
|
PHI
|
HOU
|
TB
|
DET
|
NE
|
IND
|
BAL
|
SF
|
DAL
|
KC
|
ATL
|
64
|
Danny Tuccitt
|
ARI
|
TEN
|
NYJ
|
CAR
|
JAC
|
TB
|
MIA
|
CHI
|
BUF
|
BAL
|
SF
|
DAL
|
CIN
|
ATL
|
49
|
Dave Larkin
|
ARI
|
LAC
|
MIN
|
CAR
|
HOU
|
TB
|
DET
|
CHI
|
IND
|
BAL
|
SF
|
DAL
|
KC
|
ATL
|
45
|
Devin Knotts
|
DEN
|
LAC
|
MIN
|
CAR
|
JAC
|
CLE
|
DET
|
NE
|
IND
|
BAL
|
SF
|
DAL
|
KC
|
ATL
|
44
|
James Brimacombe
|
ARI
|
LAC
|
MIN
|
PHI
|
JAC
|
CLE
|
DET
|
NE
|
BUF
|
NO
|
LAR
|
WAS
|
KC
|
NYG
|
60
|
Jeff Haseley
|
ARI
|
TEN
|
NYJ
|
PHI
|
JAC
|
TB
|
MIA
|
NE
|
BUF
|
BAL
|
LAR
|
WAS
|
KC
|
ATL
|
51
|
Justin Howe
|
DEN
|
LAC
|
NYJ
|
PHI
|
JAC
|
CLE
|
DET
|
CHI
|
IND
|
NO
|
SF
|
WAS
|
CIN
|
ATL
|
55
|
Keith Roberts
|
ARI
|
LAC
|
MIN
|
CAR
|
HOU
|
CLE
|
MIA
|
NE
|
IND
|
NO
|
SF
|
WAS
|
KC
|
ATL
|
46
|
Mark Wimer
|
DEN
|
LAC
|
MIN
|
PHI
|
JAC
|
CLE
|
MIA
|
CHI
|
BUF
|
NO
|
LAR
|
WAS
|
CIN
|
ATL
|
42
|
Matt Bitonti
|
ARI
|
TEN
|
NYJ
|
PHI
|
JAC
|
TB
|
MIA
|
NE
|
IND
|
NO
|
SF
|
WAS
|
CIN
|
ATL
|
48
|
Phil Alexander
|
ARI
|
TEN
|
MIN
|
CAR
|
JAC
|
CLE
|
DET
|
NE
|
BUF
|
BAL
|
LAR
|
DAL
|
KC
|
NYG
|
58
|
Sean Settle
|
DEN
|
LAC
|
MIN
|
CAR
|
HOU
|
CLE
|
DET
|
NE
|
IND
|
NO
|
LAR
|
WAS
|
KC
|
ATL
|
55
|
William Grant
|
DEN
|
LAC
|
MIN
|
PHI
|
JAC
|
CLE
|
MIA
|
CHI
|
IND
|
BAL
|
LAR
|
WAS
|
CIN
|
ATL
|
56
|
CONSENSUS WINNERS
Week 7 is similar to last week, where once again there is no team where the staff is even close to all in on for this weekend. The highest consensus pick has only 14 out of 18 picks, as the Atlanta Falcons (hosting the Giants) are the top choice for the staff this week. Both the Charger (vs. Tennessee in London) and Minnesota (at the Jets) were one selection behind with 13 of 18 staffers going towards both teams here. No other team had more than 11 votes this week, which highlights the level of difficulty for Week 7 to make definitive choices against the spread. Only two underdogs were slight favorites of the staff as both Cleveland (at Tampa Bay) and New Orleans (at Baltimore) received 10 votes on the week. The staff is likely to land around 50% for Week 7 with no clear consensus, but as usual it will be fun and interesting to see how the week plays out.
ODDS AND ENDS
More than a quarter of the season is now gone, and the next set of picks are due by Wednesday night. Most of the staff would agree that picking this weekend's games on Wednesday night is very difficult because you don't have much information about injuries and practice. If your league allows you to pick the later games separate from the rest, take advantage of it and make your Sunday and Monday picks as close to the weekend as possible.
A reminder that these picks are against the Las Vegas lines – so getting above 50% is respectable, above 53% gets you into the profitable zone (accounting for the Las Vegas house odds of taking 10% of every losing wager) – and anything above 60% is outstanding. That may sound easy enough, but it is much, much harder than it might seem.
Good luck this weekend!
Questions, suggestions, and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com