Over the past few years, we have given the subscribers of Footballguys.com the Staff Confidence Pool Challenge, where numerous staffers try and pick the winners each week with a confidence ranking, and Jeff Pasquino’s “For The Win” column where Jeff attempts to pick each and every NFL game against the Las Vegas spread. Both of these have been very popular features, so this year Footballguys is proud to bring you the combination of the two. The Footballguys.com Staff Against the Spread Pool Challenge. Multiple staff members (18) will pick the winner of each NFL game against the Las Vegas line. As a tie-breaker, the person who is closest to the total points scored on the last Monday Night game will be the winner. Winners will be announced from week to week and the best overall record will be crowned Against the Spread Champion. Picks and ranks are due on Wednesday, so any late-breaking news may not be reflected in the choices.
Please note, that this contest should NOT be viewed as direct sports wagering advice, especially later in the season. Since the staff is trying to beat one another, picks may be made to go against the grain in an attempt to try and catch up in the standings. This example of game theory is more in tune towards playing a contest such as this - so again, do not use these picks as direct advice towards which games to pick each and every week. Rather, use these picks to see the top choices each week, especially by the staff members towards the top of the standings.
LAST WEEK'S RESULTS
Here are the results from last week:
Road Team:
|
NYJ
|
SF
|
DEN
|
NYG
|
OAK
|
GB
|
IND
|
CIN
|
TEN
|
NO
|
BUF
|
LAC
|
DAL
|
CHI
|
NE
|
PIT
|
|
|
|
Home Team:
|
CLE
|
KC
|
BAL
|
HOU
|
MIA
|
WAS
|
PHI
|
CAR
|
JAC
|
ATL
|
MIN
|
LAR
|
SEA
|
ARI
|
DET
|
TB
|
|
|
|
Favorite:
|
CLE
|
KC
|
BAL
|
HOU
|
MIA
|
GB
|
PHI
|
CAR
|
JAC
|
ATL
|
MIN
|
LAR
|
SEA
|
CHI
|
NE
|
PIT
|
|
|
|
Point Spread:
|
-3.5
|
-6.5
|
-5.5
|
-5.5
|
-3.5
|
-2.5
|
-6.5
|
-3.5
|
-6.5
|
-3.5
|
-16.5
|
-7.5
|
-2.5
|
-5.5
|
-6.5
|
-1.5
|
|
|
|
Staffer
|
The Picks
|
MNF
|
LW
|
Total
|
|||||||||||||||
Phil Alexander
|
NYJ
|
SF
|
BAL
|
NYG
|
MIA
|
GB
|
IND
|
CAR
|
JAC
|
ATL
|
BUF
|
LAR
|
SEA
|
ARI
|
NE
|
PIT
|
61
|
10
|
25
|
Alessandro Miglio
|
CLE
|
SF
|
DEN
|
NYG
|
MIA
|
GB
|
IND
|
CAR
|
JAC
|
NO
|
BUF
|
LAC
|
SEA
|
ARI
|
NE
|
TB
|
56
|
9
|
26
|
Devin Knotts
|
CLE
|
SF
|
DEN
|
NYG
|
OAK
|
GB
|
PHI
|
CAR
|
JAC
|
NO
|
BUF
|
LAR
|
SEA
|
ARI
|
NE
|
PIT
|
43
|
9
|
26
|
Jeff Haseley
|
CLE
|
KC
|
BAL
|
NYG
|
MIA
|
WAS
|
PHI
|
CAR
|
JAC
|
ATL
|
MIN
|
LAC
|
SEA
|
ARI
|
NE
|
TB
|
55
|
9
|
26
|
Andy Hicks
|
NYJ
|
SF
|
BAL
|
NYG
|
OAK
|
GB
|
PHI
|
CIN
|
JAC
|
NO
|
BUF
|
LAR
|
DAL
|
ARI
|
DET
|
TB
|
59
|
7
|
27
|
Dave Larkin
|
NYJ
|
KC
|
DEN
|
NYG
|
OAK
|
GB
|
PHI
|
CAR
|
JAC
|
NO
|
MIN
|
LAC
|
SEA
|
ARI
|
NE
|
PIT
|
53
|
7
|
23
|
Justin Howe
|
NYJ
|
KC
|
DEN
|
NYG
|
MIA
|
GB
|
PHI
|
CIN
|
JAC
|
NO
|
MIN
|
LAC
|
SEA
|
ARI
|
DET
|
TB
|
55
|
7
|
24
|
Mark Wimer
|
CLE
|
KC
|
BAL
|
HOU
|
OAK
|
GB
|
PHI
|
CAR
|
JAC
|
ATL
|
MIN
|
LAR
|
DAL
|
CHI
|
DET
|
TB
|
77
|
6
|
22
|
William Grant
|
NYJ
|
KC
|
DEN
|
NYG
|
MIA
|
GB
|
PHI
|
CIN
|
JAC
|
NO
|
BUF
|
LAC
|
DAL
|
ARI
|
NE
|
TB
|
53
|
6
|
20
|
Andrew Garda
|
CLE
|
KC
|
DEN
|
HOU
|
MIA
|
GB
|
IND
|
CIN
|
JAC
|
ATL
|
MIN
|
LAR
|
DAL
|
CHI
|
NE
|
TB
|
55
|
5
|
17
|
Danny Tuccitto
|
NYJ
|
KC
|
DEN
|
NYG
|
MIA
|
WAS
|
PHI
|
CIN
|
JAC
|
ATL
|
MIN
|
LAC
|
DAL
|
CHI
|
DET
|
TB
|
49
|
5
|
22
|
James Brimacombe
|
NYJ
|
SF
|
DEN
|
HOU
|
MIA
|
GB
|
PHI
|
CAR
|
JAC
|
ATL
|
MIN
|
LAC
|
SEA
|
CHI
|
DET
|
PIT
|
53
|
5
|
24
|
Matt Bitonti
|
CLE
|
SF
|
DEN
|
HOU
|
MIA
|
GB
|
IND
|
CIN
|
JAC
|
NO
|
MIN
|
LAC
|
SEA
|
CHI
|
NE
|
TB
|
55
|
5
|
19
|
Jeff Pasquino
|
CLE
|
KC
|
DEN
|
HOU
|
OAK
|
GB
|
PHI
|
CIN
|
JAC
|
ATL
|
MIN
|
LAR
|
SEA
|
CHI
|
NE
|
TB
|
54
|
4
|
20
|
Keith Roberts
|
NYJ
|
KC
|
DEN
|
HOU
|
MIA
|
GB
|
PHI
|
CIN
|
JAC
|
ATL
|
BUF
|
LAR
|
DAL
|
CHI
|
NE
|
TB
|
58
|
4
|
18
|
Sean Settle
|
CLE
|
KC
|
DEN
|
HOU
|
OAK
|
GB
|
PHI
|
CAR
|
JAC
|
ATL
|
MIN
|
LAC
|
SEA
|
CHI
|
NE
|
TB
|
70
|
4
|
17
|
Aaron Rudnicki
|
NYJ
|
SF
|
DEN
|
HOU
|
OAK
|
GB
|
PHI
|
CIN
|
JAC
|
NO
|
MIN
|
LAC
|
SEA
|
CHI
|
NE
|
PIT
|
50
|
3
|
20
|
Bear Heiser
|
NYJ
|
KC
|
DEN
|
HOU
|
MIA
|
GB
|
PHI
|
CIN
|
JAC
|
ATL
|
MIN
|
LAC
|
SEA
|
CHI
|
NE
|
TB
|
64
|
3
|
20
|
To say that NFL Week 3 was challenging is sort of like saying Cleveland had a bad year last year (sorry Browns fans - but congratulations last week!). The staff stumbled and bumbled to one of their worst weeks ever, securing only 108 correct picks out of a potential 288 - which is a paltry 37.5% rate. Ouch. Phil Alexander won the week with 10 correct picks, while Alex Miglio, Devin Knotts and Jeff Haseley were not just one pick back at nine correct but also summed up the four staffers that had winning weeks. Upsets galore riddled the results chart with red, highlighted by Jacksonville's loss to Tennessee that was a clean sweep - in the wrong direction - for the group. Much work is left to be done to get over the Las Vegas house advantage of 52.3%.
THIS WEEK'S PICKS
Here are the picks for this week:
Road Team:
|
MIN
|
CIN
|
NYJ
|
DET
|
PHI
|
BUF
|
HOU
|
MIA
|
TB
|
CLE
|
SEA
|
SF
|
NO
|
BAL
|
KC
|
|
Home Team:
|
LAR
|
ATL
|
JAC
|
DAL
|
TEN
|
GB
|
IND
|
NE
|
CHI
|
OAK
|
ARI
|
LAC
|
NYG
|
PIT
|
DEN
|
|
Favorite:
|
LAR
|
ATL
|
JAC
|
DAL
|
PHI
|
GB
|
IND
|
NE
|
CHI
|
OAK
|
SEA
|
LAC
|
NO
|
PIT
|
KC
|
|
Point Spread:
|
-6.5
|
-5.5
|
-7.5
|
-3.5
|
-3.5
|
-10.5
|
-1.5
|
-7.5
|
-2.5
|
-2.5
|
-2.5
|
-10.5
|
-3.5
|
-3.5
|
-4.5
|
|
Staffer
|
The Picks
|
MNF
|
||||||||||||||
Jeff Pasquino
|
LAR
|
CIN
|
JAC
|
DET
|
PHI
|
GB
|
IND
|
MIA
|
TB
|
CLE
|
SEA
|
LAC
|
NO
|
PIT
|
KC
|
58
|
Aaron Rudnicki
|
MIN
|
ATL
|
JAC
|
DET
|
PHI
|
GB
|
HOU
|
MIA
|
CHI
|
CLE
|
SEA
|
SF
|
NYG
|
BAL
|
DEN
|
44
|
Alessandro Miglio
|
MIN
|
CIN
|
JAC
|
DAL
|
TEN
|
BUF
|
IND
|
MIA
|
CHI
|
OAK
|
SEA
|
SF
|
NO
|
PIT
|
DEN
|
49
|
Andrew Garda
|
MIN
|
ATL
|
NYJ
|
DET
|
PHI
|
BUF
|
IND
|
MIA
|
CHI
|
CLE
|
SEA
|
LAC
|
NO
|
BAL
|
KC
|
65
|
Andy Hicks
|
LAR
|
CIN
|
NYJ
|
DAL
|
PHI
|
GB
|
HOU
|
MIA
|
TB
|
CLE
|
SEA
|
LAC
|
NYG
|
BAL
|
KC
|
61
|
Bear Heiser
|
LAR
|
ATL
|
JAC
|
DET
|
PHI
|
GB
|
HOU
|
MIA
|
CHI
|
CLE
|
SEA
|
LAC
|
NO
|
PIT
|
DEN
|
56
|
Danny Tuccitto
|
LAR
|
ATL
|
JAC
|
DET
|
PHI
|
BUF
|
IND
|
MIA
|
TB
|
OAK
|
SEA
|
SF
|
NO
|
PIT
|
DEN
|
49
|
Dave Larkin
|
LAR
|
ATL
|
NYJ
|
DET
|
TEN
|
BUF
|
IND
|
NE
|
TB
|
OAK
|
SEA
|
SF
|
NO
|
BAL
|
DEN
|
57
|
Devin Knotts
|
MIN
|
ATL
|
JAC
|
DAL
|
PHI
|
GB
|
HOU
|
NE
|
TB
|
CLE
|
SEA
|
LAC
|
NO
|
BAL
|
DEN
|
44
|
James Brimacombe
|
MIN
|
ATL
|
JAC
|
DET
|
PHI
|
GB
|
HOU
|
NE
|
TB
|
CLE
|
SEA
|
LAC
|
NO
|
PIT
|
KC
|
55
|
Jeff Haseley
|
MIN
|
ATL
|
NYJ
|
DET
|
PHI
|
BUF
|
IND
|
MIA
|
CHI
|
CLE
|
SEA
|
LAC
|
NO
|
BAL
|
KC
|
51
|
Justin Howe
|
LAR
|
CIN
|
JAC
|
DAL
|
PHI
|
GB
|
HOU
|
MIA
|
CHI
|
OAK
|
SEA
|
LAC
|
NO
|
PIT
|
DEN
|
54
|
Keith Roberts
|
MIN
|
CIN
|
JAC
|
DAL
|
PHI
|
GB
|
HOU
|
MIA
|
CHI
|
CLE
|
SEA
|
LAC
|
NO
|
BAL
|
KC
|
57
|
Mark Wimer
|
MIN
|
ATL
|
JAC
|
DET
|
PHI
|
BUF
|
HOU
|
NE
|
CHI
|
CLE
|
SEA
|
LAC
|
NO
|
PIT
|
DEN
|
45
|
Matt Bitonti
|
LAR
|
ATL
|
NYJ
|
DET
|
TEN
|
BUF
|
IND
|
MIA
|
CHI
|
CLE
|
SEA
|
LAC
|
NYG
|
BAL
|
KC
|
61
|
Phil Alexander
|
MIN
|
ATL
|
NYJ
|
DAL
|
TEN
|
GB
|
IND
|
MIA
|
CHI
|
OAK
|
SEA
|
SF
|
NYG
|
BAL
|
KC
|
52
|
Sean Settle
|
LAR
|
ATL
|
JAC
|
DET
|
PHI
|
BUF
|
HOU
|
NE
|
TB
|
CLE
|
SEA
|
LAC
|
NO
|
PIT
|
KC
|
52
|
William Grant
|
LAR
|
ATL
|
JAC
|
DET
|
PHI
|
GB
|
HOU
|
MIA
|
TB
|
OAK
|
SEA
|
LAC
|
NO
|
BAL
|
KC
|
57
|
CONSENSUS WINNERS
Week 3 had our first unanimous pick for 2018 as all 18 of the staffers in the pool went with Jacksonville, and we know how that turned out. Now Week 4 is straight ahead, and our second consensus pick has arrived for the group as everyone is all in on Seattle to go to Arizona and win by four or more against the Cardinals. That feels a little risky with the recent change by Arizona to rookie quarterback Josh Rosen, so it will be very interesting if the staff walks away 18-0 from this contest. Philadelphia (at Tennessee) and New Orleans (at the Giants) are the next most common picks (14 each). Six other teams come in with either 13 selections (Atlanta, Miami and the Los Angeles Charger) or 12 picks (Jacksonville, Detroit, Cleveland), including three underdog road picks with Miami at New England, Detroit at Dallas and Cleveland visiting the Raiders. All the rest of the picks are either slight favorites for the group (Packers, Texans, Chicago, Baltimore and the Chiefs) or a total split at 9-9 (Vikings vs. Rams). As always, it will be fun and interesting to see how NFL Week 3 plays out.
ODDS AND ENDS
Three weeks down for the young NFL season, and the next set of picks are due by Wednesday night. Most of the staff would agree that picking this weekend's games on Wednesday night is very difficult because you don't have much information about injuries and practice. If your league allows you to pick the later games separate from the rest, take advantage of it and make your Sunday and Monday picks as close to the weekend as possible.
A reminder that these picks are against the Las Vegas lines – so getting above 50% is respectable, above 53% gets you into the profitable zone (accounting for the Las Vegas house odds of taking 10% of every losing wager) – and anything above 60% is outstanding. That may sound easy enough, but it is much, much harder than it might seem.
Good luck this weekend!
Questions, suggestions, and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com